Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones in a warming climate in the HiGEM high-resolution climate model

Changes to the Northern Hemisphere winter (December, January and February) extratropical storm tracks and cyclones in a warming climate are investigated. Two idealised climate change experiments with HiGEM1.1, a doubled CO2 and a quadrupled CO2 experiment, are compared against a present day control run. An objective feature tracking method is used and a focus given to regional changes. The climatology of extratropical storm tracks from the control run is shown to be in good agreement with ERA-40, while the frequency distribution of cyclone intensity also compares well. In both simulations the mean climate changes are generally consistent with the simulations of the IPCC AR4 models, with a strongly enhanced surface warming at the winter pole and the reduced lower tropospheric warming over the North Atlantic Ocean associated with the slowdown of the Meridional Overturning Circulation. The circulation changes in the North Atlantic are different between the two idealised simulations with different CO2 forcings. In the North Atlantic the storm tracks are influenced by the slowdown of the MOC, the enhanced surface polar warming, and the enhanced upper tropical troposphere warming, giving a north eastward shift of the storm tracks in the 2XCO2 experiment, but no shift in the 4XCO2 experiment. Over the Pacific, in the 2XCO2 experiment, changes in the mean climate are associated with local temperature changes, while in the 4XCO2 experiment the changes in the Pacific are impacted by the weakened tropical circulation. The storm track changes are consistent with the shifts in the zonal wind. Total cyclone numbers are found to decrease over the Northern Hemisphere with increasing CO2 forcing. Changes in cyclone intensity are found using 850hPa vorticity, mean sea level pressure, and 850hPa winds. The intensity of the Northern Hemisphere cyclones is found to decrease relative to the control.

Does active management add any value?

The question as to whether active management adds any value above that of the funds investment policy is one of continual interest to investors. In order to investigate this issue in the UK real estate market we examine a number of related questions. First, how much return variability is explained by investment policy? Second, how similar are the policies across funds? Third, how much of a fund’s return is determined by investment policy? Finally, how was this added value achieved? Using data for 19 real estate funds we find that investment policy explains less than half of the variability in returns over time, nothing of the variation across funds and that more than 100% of a level of return is attributed to investment policy. The results also show UK real estate fund focus exclusively on trying to pick winners to add value and that in pursuit of active return fund mangers incur high tracking error risk, consequently, successful active management is very difficult to achieve. In addition, the results are dependent on the benchmark used to represent the investment policy of the fund. Nonetheless, active management can indeed add value to a real estate funds performance. This is the good news. The bad news is adding value is much more difficult to achieve than is generally accepted.

Spectro-electrochemical and DFT studies of a planar Cu(II)–phenolate complex active in the aerobic oxidation of primary alcohols

A square-planar compound [Cu(pyrimol)Cl] (pyrimol = 4-methyl-2-N-(2-pyridylmethylene)aminophenolate) abbreviated as CuL–Cl) is described as a biomimetic model of the enzyme galactose oxidase (GOase). This copper(II) compound is capable of stoichiometric aerobic oxidation of activated primary alcohols in acetonitrile/water to the corresponding aldehydes. It can be obtained either from Hpyrimol (HL) or its reduced/hydrogenated form Hpyramol (4-methyl-2-N-(2-pyridylmethyl)aminophenol; H2L) readily converting to pyrimol (L-) on coordination to the copper(II) ion. Crystalline CuL–Cl and its bromide derivative exhibit a perfect square-planar geometry with Cu–O(phenolate) bond lengths of 1.944(2) and 1.938(2) Å. The cyclic voltammogram of CuL–Cl exhibits an irreversible anodic wave at +0.50 and +0.57 V versus ferrocene/ferrocenium (Fc/Fc+) in dry dichloromethane and acetonitrile, respectively, corresponding to oxidation of the phenolate ligand to the corresponding phenoxyl radical. In the strongly donating acetonitrile the oxidation path involves reversible solvent coordination at the Cu(II) centre. The presence of the dominant CuII–L. chromophore in the electrochemically and chemically oxidised species is evident from a new fairly intense electronic absorption at 400–480 nm ascribed to a several electronic transitions having a mixed pi-pi(L.) intraligand and Cu–Cl -> L. charge transfer character. The EPR signal of CuL–Cl disappears on oxidation due to strong intramolecular antiferromagnetic exchange coupling between the phenoxyl radical ligand (L.) and the copper(II) centre, giving rise to a singlet ground state (S = 0). The key step in the mechanism of the primary alcohol oxidation by CuL–Cl is probably the alpha-hydrogen abstraction from the equatorially bound alcoholate by the phenoxyl moiety in the oxidised pyrimol ligand, Cu–L., through a five-membered cyclic transition state.

Making the least active pay: a simulation of rewards and penalties under Demand Side Participation programs

The orthodox approach for incentivising Demand Side Participation (DSP) programs is that utility losses from capital, installation and planning costs should be recovered under financial incentive mechanisms which aim to ensure that utilities have the right incentives to implement DSP activities. The recent national smart metering roll-out in the UK implies that this approach needs to be reassessed since utilities will recover the capital costs associated with DSP technology through bills. This paper introduces a reward and penalty mechanism focusing on residential users. DSP planning costs are recovered through payments from those consumers who do not react to peak signals. Those consumers who do react are rewarded by paying lower bills. Because real-time incentives to residential consumers tend to fail due to the negligible amounts associated with net gains (and losses) or individual users, in the proposed mechanism the regulator determines benchmarks which are matched against responses to signals and caps the level of rewards/penalties to avoid market distortions. The paper presents an overview of existing financial incentive mechanisms for DSP; introduces the reward/penalty mechanism aimed at fostering DSP under the hypothesis of smart metering roll-out; considers the costs faced by utilities for DSP programs; assesses linear rate effects and value changes; introduces compensatory weights for those consumers who have physical or financial impediments; and shows findings based on simulation runs on three discrete levels of elasticity.

Reaction of 2-methyl-1,4-naphthoquinone and its 3-substituted derivatives with active methylene group anions and with diazo compounds

The reaction of 2-chloro-3-methyl-1,4-naphthoquinone (3) with the anion of ethyl cyanoacetate led to a mixture of two epimeric fused-ring cyclopropane compounds, characterised as exo- and endo-1-cyano-1 -ethoxycarbonyl-1a-methyl-1a,7a-dihydro-1H-cyclopropa[b]naphthalene-2,7-dione (8) and (9). Various hydrolysis products of these were prepared and an X-ray crystallographic analysis was carried out on one of them, 1-carbamoyl-1 -carboxy-1a-methyl-1a,7a-dihydro-1H-cyclopropa[b]-naphthalene-2,7-dione (17). The reaction of 2-methyl-1,4-naphthoquinone (1) with ethyl diazoacetate gave a fused pyrazoline derivative, 3-ethoxycarbonyl-4-hydroxy-9a-methyl-1,9a-dihydro-benz[f]indazol-9-one (22), while reaction of 2-methyl-3-nitro-1,4-naphthoquinone (5) with diazomethane led to a fused Δ2-isoxazoline N-oxide, 3a-methyl-3,3a-dihydroisoxazolo[3,4-b]naphthalene-4,9-dione 1-oxide (26).

Causes of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic ocean in the mid-1990s

In the mid-1990s the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic underwent a remarkable rapid warming, with sea surface temperatures increasing by around 1C in just 2 years. This rapid warming followed a prolonged positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but also coincided with an unusually negative NAO index in the winter of 1995/96. By comparing ocean analyses and carefully designed model experiments we show that this rapid warming can be understood as a delayed response to the prolonged positive phase of the NAO, and not simply an instantaneous response to the negative NAO index of 1995/96. Furthermore, we infer that the warming was partly caused by a surge, and subsequent decline, in the Meridional Overturning Circulation and northward heat transport of the Atlantic Ocean. Our results provide persuasive evidence of significant oceanic memory on multi-annual timescales, and are therefore encouraging for the prospects of developing skillful predictions.

Virtual reality Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) exposure therapy results with active duty OIF/OEF service members

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is reported to be caused by exposure to traumatic events including (but not limited to) military combat, violent personal assault, being kidnapped or taken hostage and terrorist attacks. Initial data suggest that at least 1 out of 6 Iraq War veterans are exhibiting symptoms of depression, anxiety and PTSD. Virtual reality (VR) delivered exposure therapy for PTSD has been used with reports of positive outcomes. The aim of the current paper, is to present the rationale and brief description of a Virtual Iraq/Afghanistan PTSD VR therapy application and present initial findings from its use with PTSD patients. Thus far, Virtual Iraq/Afghanistan consists of a series of customizable virtual scenarios designed to represent relevant Middle Eastern VR contexts for exposure therapy, including a city and desert road convoy environment. User-centered design feedback, needed to iteratively evolve the system, was gathered from returning Iraq War veterans in the USA and from a system deployed in Iraq and tested by an Army Combat Stress Control Team. Results from an open clinical trial at San Diego Naval Medical Center of the first 20 treatment completers indicate that 16 no longer met PTSD screening criteria at post-treatment, with only one not maintaining treatment gains at 3 month follow-up.

Dynamic vergence telepresence system incorporating active gaze control

Visual Telepresence system which utilize virtual reality style helmet mounted displays have a number of limitations. The geometry of the camera positions and of the display is fixed and is most suitable only for viewing elements of a scene at a particular distance. In such a system, the operator's ability to gaze around without use of head movement is severely limited. A trade off must be made between a poor viewing resolution or a narrow width of viewing field. To address these limitations a prototype system where the geometry of the displays and cameras is dynamically controlled by the eye movement of the operator has been developed. This paper explores the reasons why is necessary to actively adjust both the display system and the cameras and furthermore justifies the use of mechanical adjustment of the displays as an alternative to adjustment by electronic or image processing methods. The electronic and mechanical design is described including optical arrangements and control algorithms, An assessment of the performance of the system against a fixed camera/display system when operators are assigned basic tasks involving depth and distance/size perception. The sensitivity to variations in transient performance of the display and camera vergence is also assessed.

Leisure, consumerism and active citizenship in the UK

Since the first election victory of the Thatcher administration in 1979, Britain has witnessed a cultural transformation from the municipal socialism enshrined in the post-World War 2 development of the Welfare State to a form of post-industrial entrepreneurialism based largely on market rationality. This has had a profound effect on all aspects of civil life, not least the redefinition of the role of active leisure. Since the late 1950s the dominant policy for active leisure has been 'Sport For All', an assertion of a social right too important to be left to the market. The transformation has, therefore, signalled a shift from government support for active leisure as an element of citizen rights to the use of leisure to promote the government's interest in legitimating a new social order based not on rights but on means. Thus access to active living is no longer a societal goal for all, but a discretionary consumer good, the consumption of which signifies 'active' citizenship. It furthermore signifies differentiation from the growing mass of 'deviants' who are unwilling or unable to embrace this new construction of citizenship and are, therefore, increasingly denied access to active living and, hence, active citizenship.