High Hepatic and Extrahepatic Mortality and Low Treatment Uptake in HCV-coinfected Persons in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study between 2001 and 2013

BACKGROUND & AIMS The landscape of HCV treatments is changing dramatically. At the beginning of this new era, we highlight the challenges for HCV-therapy by assessing the long-term epidemiological trends in treatment uptake, efficacy and mortality among HIV/HCV-coinfected people since the availability of HCV therapy. METHODS We included all SHCS participants with detectable HCV RNA between 2001 and 2013. To identify predictors for treatment uptake uni- and multivariable Poisson regression models were applied. We further used survival analyses with Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression with drop-out as competing risk. RESULTS Of 12,401 participants 2107 (17%) were HCV RNA positive. Of those, 636 (30%) started treatment with an incidence of 5.8/100 person years (PY) (95% CI 5.3-6.2). Sustained virological response (SVR) with pegylated interferon/ribavirin was achieved in 50% of treated patients, representing 15% of all participants with replicating HCV infection. 344 of 2107 (16%) HCV RNA positive persons died, 59% from extrahepatic causes. Mortality/100 PY was 2.9 (95% CI 2.6-3.2) in untreated patients, 1.3 (1.0-1.8) in those treated with failure, and 0.6 (0.4-1.0) in patients with SVR. In 2013, 869/2107 (41%) participants remained HCV RNA positive. CONCLUSIONS Over the last 13 years HCV treatment uptake was low and by the end of 2013, a large number of persons remain to be treated. Mortality was high, particularly in untreated patients, and mainly due to non-liver related causes. Accordingly, in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients, integrative care including the diagnosis and therapy of somatic and psychiatric disorders is important to achieve mortality rates similar to HIV-monoinfected patients.

HBV genotypes and response to tenofovir disoproxil fumarate in HIV/HBV-coinfected persons

BACKGROUND Hepatitis B virus (HBV) genotypes can influence treatment outcome in HBV-monoinfected and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/HBV-coinfected patients. Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) plays a pivotal role in antiretroviral therapy (ART) of HIV/HBV-coinfected patients. The influence of HBV genotypes on the response to antiviral drugs, particularly TDF, is poorly understood. METHODS HIV/HBV-co-infected participants with detectable HBV DNA prior to TDF therapy were selected from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. HBV genotypes were identified and resistance testing was performed prior to antiviral therapy, and in patients with delayed treatment response (>6 months). The efficacy of TDF to suppress HBV (HBV DNA <20 IU/mL) and the influence of HBV genotypes were determined. RESULTS 143 HIV/HBV-coinfected participants with detectable HBV DNA were identified. The predominant HBV genotypes were A (82 patients, 57 %); and D (35 patients, 24 %); 20 patients (14 %) were infected with multiple genotypes (3 % A + D and 11 % A + G); and genotypes B, C and E were each present in two patients (1 %). TDF completely suppressed HBV DNA in 131 patients (92 %) within 6 months; and in 12 patients (8 %), HBV DNA suppression was delayed. No HBV resistance mutations to TDF were found in patients with delayed response, but all were infected with HBV genotype A (among these, 5 patients with genotype A + G), and all had previously been exposed to lamivudine. CONCLUSION In HIV/HBV-coinfected patients, infection with multiple HBV genotypes was more frequent than previously reported. The large majority of patients had an undetectable HBV viral load at six months of TDF-containing ART. In patients without viral suppression, no TDF-related resistance mutations were found. The role of specific genotypes and prior lamivudine treatment in the delayed response to TDF warrant further investigation.

Increases in Condomless Sex in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Condomless sex is a key driver of sexually transmitted diseases. In this study, we assess the long-term changes (2000-2013) of the occurrence of condomless sex among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort study. The frequencies with which HIV-infected individuals reported condomless sex were either stable or only weakly increasing for 2000-2008. For 2008-2013, these rates increased significantly for stable relationships among heterosexuals and men who have sex with men (MSM) and for occasional relationships among MSM. Our results highlight the increasing public health challenge posed by condomless sex and show that condomless sex has been increasing even in the most recent years.

Antarctic Zone nutrient conditions during the last two glacial cycles

In a sediment core from the Pacific sector of the Antarctic Zone (AZ) of the Southern Ocean, we report diatom-bound N isotope (δ15Ndb) records for total recoverable diatoms and two distinct diatom assemblages (pennate and centric rich). These data indicate tight coupling between the degree of nitrate consumption and Antarctic climate across the last two glacial cycles, with δ15Ndb (and thus the degree of nitrate consumption) increasing at each major Antarctic cooling event. Coupled with evidence from opal- and barium-based proxies for reduced export production during ice ages, the δ15Ndb increases point to ice age reductions in the supply of deep ocean-sourced nitrate to the AZ surface. The two diatom assemblages and species abundance data indicate that the δ15Ndb changes are not the result of changing species composition. The pennate and centric assemblage δ15Ndb records indicate similar changes but with a significant decline in their difference during peak ice ages. A tentative seasonality-based interpretation of the centric-to-pennate δ15Ndb difference suggests that late summer surface waters became nitrate free during the peak glacials.

Consistent estimation of the fixed effects ordered logit model

The paper considers panel data methods for estimating ordered logit models with individual-specific correlated unobserved heterogeneity. We show that a popular approach is inconsistent, whereas some consistent and efficient estimators are available, including minimum distance and generalized method-of-moment estimators. A Monte Carlo study reveals the good properties of an alternative estimator that has not been considered in econometric applications before, is simple to implement and almost as efficient. An illustrative application based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel confirms the large negative effect of unemployment on life satisfaction that has been found in the previous literature.

Modelling zero-inflated count data when exposure varies: with an application to tumor counts)

This paper is concerned with the analysis of zero-inflated count data when time of exposure varies. It proposes a modified zero-inflated count data model where the probability of an extra zero is derived from an underlying duration model with Weibull hazard rate. The new model is compared to the standard Poisson model with logit zero inflation in an application to the effect of treatment with thiotepa on the number of new bladder tumors.

Strong Impact of Smoking on Multimorbidity and Cardiovascular Risk Among Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Individuals in Comparison With the General Population.

Background.  Although acquired immune deficiency syndrome-associated morbidity has diminished due to excellent viral control, multimorbidity may be increasing among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons compared with the general population. Methods.  We assessed the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in participants of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) compared with the population-based CoLaus study and the primary care-based FIRE (Family Medicine ICPC-Research using Electronic Medical Records) records. The incidence of the respective endpoints were assessed among SHCS and CoLaus participants. Poisson regression models were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and smoking. Results.  Overall, 74 291 participants contributed data to prevalence analyses (3230 HIV-infected; 71 061 controls). In CoLaus, FIRE, and SHCS, multimorbidity was present among 26%, 13%, and 27% of participants. Compared with nonsmoking individuals from CoLaus, the incidence of cardiovascular disease was elevated among smoking individuals but independent of HIV status (HIV-negative smoking: incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.2-2.5; HIV-positive smoking: IRR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.1-2.6; HIV-positive nonsmoking: IRR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.44-1.4). Compared with nonsmoking HIV-negative persons, multivariable Poisson regression identified associations of HIV infection with hypertension (nonsmoking: IRR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.5-2.4; smoking: IRR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.6-2.4), kidney (nonsmoking: IRR = 2.7, 95% CI = 1.9-3.8; smoking: IRR = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.9-3.6), and liver disease (nonsmoking: IRR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.4-2.4; smoking: IRR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.4-2.2). No evidence was found for an association of HIV-infection or smoking with diabetes mellitus. Conclusions.  Multimorbidity is more prevalent and incident in HIV-positive compared with HIV-negative individuals. Smoking, but not HIV status, has a strong impact on cardiovascular risk and multimorbidity.