Space weather driven changes in lower atmosphere phenomena

During a period of heliospheric disturbance in 2007-9 associated with a co-rotating interaction region (CIR), a characteristic periodic variation becomes apparent in neutron monitor data. This variation is phase locked to periodic heliospheric current sheet crossings. Phase-locked electrical variations are also seen in the terrestrial lower atmosphere in the southern UK, including an increase in the vertical conduction current density of fair weather atmospheric electricity during increases in the neutron monitor count rate and energetic proton count rates measured by spacecraft. At the same time as the conduction current increases, changes in the cloud microphysical properties lead to an increase in the detected height of the cloud base at Lerwick Observatory, Shetland, with associated changes in surface meteorological quantities. As electrification is expected at the base of layer clouds, which can influence droplet properties, these observations of phase-locked thermodynamic, cloud, atmospheric electricity and solar sector changes are not inconsistent with a heliospheric disturbance driving lower troposphere changes.

The formation of ice in a long-lived supercooled layer cloud

This article focuses on the characteristics of persistent thin single-layer mixed-phase clouds. We seek to answer two important questions: (i) how does ice continually nucleate and precipitate from these clouds, without the available ice nuclei becoming depleted? (ii) how do the supercooled liquid droplets persist in spite of the net flux of water vapour to the growing ice crystals? These questions are answered quantitatively using in situ and radar observations of a long-lived mixed-phase cloud layer over the Chilbolton Observatory. Doppler radar measurements show that the top 500 m of cloud (the top 250 m of which is mixed-phase, with ice virga beneath) is turbulent and well-mixed, and the liquid water content is adiabatic. This well-mixed layer is bounded above and below by stable layers. This inhibits entrainment of fresh ice nuclei into the cloud layer, yet our in situ and radar observations show that a steady flux of ≈100 m−2s−1 ice crystals fell from the cloud over the course of ∼1 day. Comparing this flux to the concentration of conventional ice nuclei expected to be present within the well-mixed layer, we find that these nuclei would be depleted within less than 1 h. We therefore argue that nucleation in these persistent supercooled clouds is strongly time-dependent in nature, with droplets freezing slowly over many hours, significantly longer than the few seconds residence time of an ice nucleus counter. Once nucleated, the ice crystals are observed to grow primarily by vapour deposition, because of the low liquid water path (21 g m−2) yet vapour-rich environment. Evidence for this comes from high differential reflectivity in the radar observations, and in situ imaging of the crystals. The flux of vapour from liquid to ice is quantified from in situ measurements, and we show that this modest flux (3.3 g m−2h−1) can be readily offset by slow radiative cooling of the layer to space.

Sensitivity analysis of an ocean carbon cycle model in the North Atlantic: an investigation of parameters affecting the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production and export of detritus

The sensitivity of the biological parameters in a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton-detritus (NPZD) model in the calculation of the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production and detrital export is analysed. We explore the effect on these outputs of variation in the values of the twenty parameters that control ocean ecosystem growth in a 1-D formulation of the UK Met Office HadOCC NPZD model used in GCMs. We use and compare the results from one-at-a-time and all-at-a-time perturbations performed at three sites in the EuroSITES European Ocean Observatory Network: the Central Irminger Sea (60° N 40° W), the Porcupine Abyssal Plain (49° N 16° W) and the European Station for Time series in the Ocean Canary Islands (29° N 15° W). Reasonable changes to the values of key parameters are shown to have a large effect on the calculation of the air-sea CO2 flux, primary production, and export of biological detritus to the deep ocean. Changes in the values of key parameters have a greater effect in more productive regions than in less productive areas. The most sensitive parameters are generally found to be those controlling well-established ocean ecosystem parameterisations widely used in many NPZD-type models. The air-sea CO2 flux is most influenced by variation in the parameters that control phytoplankton growth, detrital sinking and carbonate production by phytoplankton (the rain ratio). Primary production is most sensitive to the parameters that define the shape of the photosynthesis-irradiance curve. Export production is most sensitive to the parameters that control the rate of detrital sinking and the remineralisation of detritus.

The distribution of interplanetary dust between 0.96 and 1.04 au as inferred from impacts on the STEREO spacecraft observed by the heliospheric imagers

The distribution of dust in the ecliptic plane between 0.96 and 1.04 au has been inferred from impacts on the two Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft through observation of secondary particle trails and unexpected off-points in the heliospheric imager (HI) cameras. This study made use of analysis carried out by members of a distributed web-based citizen science project Solar Stormwatch. A comparison between observations of the brightest particle trails and a survey of fainter trails shows consistent distributions. While there is no obvious correlation between this distribution and the occurrence of individual meteor streams at Earth, there are some broad longitudinal features in these distributions that are also observed in sources of the sporadic meteor population. The different position of the HI instrument on the two STEREO spacecraft leads to each sampling different populations of dust particles. The asymmetry in the number of trails seen by each spacecraft and the fact that there are many more unexpected off-points in the HI-B than in HI-A indicates that the majority of impacts are coming from the apex direction. For impacts causing off-points in the HI-B camera, these dust particles are estimated to have masses in excess of 10−17 kg with radii exceeding 0.1 μm. For off-points observed in the HI-A images, which can only have been caused by particles travelling from the anti-apex direction, the distribution is consistent with that of secondary ‘storm’ trails observed by HI-B, providing evidence that these trails also result from impacts with primary particles from an anti-apex source. Investigating the mass distribution for the off-points of both HI-A and HI-B, it is apparent that the differential mass index of particles from the apex direction (causing off-points in HI-B) is consistently above 2. This indicates that the majority of the mass is within the smaller particles of this population. In contrast, the differential mass index of particles from the anti-apex direction (causing off-points in HI-A) is consistently below 2, indicating that the majority of the mass is to be found in larger particles of this distribution.

Infrared Observations of XTE J1118+480

Infrared observations of the outbursting black hole XTE J1118+480 (ATEL #383) were performed using SQIID on the Kitt Peak National Observatory 2.1m telescope. Observations spanning 2005 January 15.42-15.58 found it somewhat fainter than the previous outburst (IAUC # 7394 , # 7407 ), at average brightness J=12.91+/-0.03, H=12.50+/-0.03, K=11.95+/-0.03. The colors again correspond to an approximately flat spectrum in F_nu. No orbital variation is apparent, but there is substantial unresolved rapid variability with rms amplitude 22% in K (between 2s exposures). Further observations are planned nightly until Jan 21.

Massive Science with VO and Grids

There is a growing need for massive computational resources for the analysis of new astronomical datasets. To tackle this problem, we present here our first steps towards marrying two new and emerging technologies; the Virtual Observatory (e.g, AstroGrid) and the computa- tional grid (e.g. TeraGrid, COSMOS etc.). We discuss the construction of VOTechBroker, which is a modular software tool designed to abstract the tasks of submission and management of a large number of compu- tational jobs to a distributed computer system. The broker will also interact with the AstroGrid workflow and MySpace environments. We discuss our planned usages of the VOTechBroker in computing a huge number of n–point correlation functions from the SDSS data and mas- sive model-fitting of millions of CMBfast models to WMAP data. We also discuss other applications including the determination of the XMM Cluster Survey selection function and the construction of new WMAP maps.

Statistical computations with AstroGrid and the Grid

We outline our first steps towards marrying two new and emerging technologies; the Virtual Observatory (e.g, Astro- Grid) and the computational grid. We discuss the construction of VOTechBroker, which is a modular software tool designed to abstract the tasks of submission and management of a large number of computational jobs to a distributed computer system. The broker will also interact with the AstroGrid workflow and MySpace environments. We present our planned usage of the VOTechBroker in computing a huge number of n–point correlation functions from the SDSS, as well as fitting over a million CMBfast models to the WMAP data.

Measurements of stratospheric ozone at a mid-latitude observing station Valentia, Ireland (51.94° N, 10.25° W), using ground-based and ozonesonde observations from 1994 to 2009

Sixteen years (1994 – 2009) of ozone profiling by ozonesondes at Valentia Meteorological and Geophysical Observatory, Ireland (51.94° N, 10.23° W) along with a co-located MkIV Brewer spectrophotometer for the period 1993–2009 are analyzed. Simple and multiple linear regression methods are used to infer the recent trend, if any, in stratospheric column ozone over the station. The decadal trend from 1994 to 2010 is also calculated from the monthly mean data of Brewer and column ozone data derived from satellite observations. Both of these show a 1.5 % increase per decade during this period with an uncertainty of about ±0.25 %. Monthly mean data for March show a much stronger trend of ~ 4.8 % increase per decade for both ozonesonde and Brewer data. The ozone profile is divided between three vertical slots of 0–15 km, 15–26 km, and 26 km to the top of the atmosphere and a 11-year running average is calculated. Ozone values for the month of March only are observed to increase at each level with a maximum change of +9.2 ± 3.2 % per decade (between years 1994 and 2009) being observed in the vertical region from 15 to 26 km. In the tropospheric region from 0 to 15 km, the trend is positive but with a poor statistical significance. However, for the top level of above 26 km the trend is significantly positive at about 4 % per decade. The March integrated ozonesonde column ozone during this period is found to increase at a rate of ~6.6 % per decade compared with the Brewer and satellite positive trends of ~5 % per decade.

Bollène-2002 experiment: radar quantitative precipitation estimation in the Cévennes–Vivarais region, France

The Bollène-2002 Experiment was aimed at developing the use of a radar volume-scanning strategy for conducting radar rainfall estimations in the mountainous regions of France. A developmental radar processing system, called Traitements Régionalisés et Adaptatifs de Données Radar pour l’Hydrologie (Regionalized and Adaptive Radar Data Processing for Hydrological Applications), has been built and several algorithms were specifically produced as part of this project. These algorithms include 1) a clutter identification technique based on the pulse-to-pulse variability of reflectivity Z for noncoherent radar, 2) a coupled procedure for determining a rain partition between convective and widespread rainfall R and the associated normalized vertical profiles of reflectivity, and 3) a method for calculating reflectivity at ground level from reflectivities measured aloft. Several radar processing strategies, including nonadaptive, time-adaptive, and space–time-adaptive variants, have been implemented to assess the performance of these new algorithms. Reference rainfall data were derived from a careful analysis of rain gauge datasets furnished by the Cévennes–Vivarais Mediterranean Hydrometeorological Observatory. The assessment criteria for five intense and long-lasting Mediterranean rain events have proven that good quantitative precipitation estimates can be obtained from radar data alone within 100-km range by using well-sited, well-maintained radar systems and sophisticated, physically based data-processing systems. The basic requirements entail performing accurate electronic calibration and stability verification, determining the radar detection domain, achieving efficient clutter elimination, and capturing the vertical structure(s) of reflectivity for the target event. Radar performance was shown to depend on type of rainfall, with better results obtained with deep convective rain systems (Nash coefficients of roughly 0.90 for point radar–rain gauge comparisons at the event time step), as opposed to shallow convective and frontal rain systems (Nash coefficients in the 0.6–0.8 range). In comparison with time-adaptive strategies, the space–time-adaptive strategy yields a very significant reduction in the radar–rain gauge bias while the level of scatter remains basically unchanged. Because the Z–R relationships have not been optimized in this study, results are attributed to an improved processing of spatial variations in the vertical profile of reflectivity. The two main recommendations for future work consist of adapting the rain separation method for radar network operations and documenting Z–R relationships conditional on rainfall type.

Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr - Part 4: Near-Earth solar wind speed, IMF, and open solar flux

In the concluding paper of this tetralogy, we here use the different geomagnetic activity indices to reconstruct the near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind flow speed, as well as the open solar flux (OSF) from 1845 to the present day. The differences in how the various indices vary with near-Earth interplanetary parameters, which are here exploited to separate the effects of the IMF and solar wind speed, are shown to be statistically significant at the 93% level or above. Reconstructions are made using four combinations of different indices, compiled using different data and different algorithms, and the results are almost identical for all parameters. The correction to the aa index required is discussed by comparison with the Ap index from a more extensive network of mid-latitude stations. Data from the Helsinki magnetometer station is used to extend the aa index back to 1845 and the results confirmed by comparison with the nearby St Petersburg observatory. The optimum variations, using all available long-term geomagnetic indices, of the near-Earth IMF and solar wind speed, and of the open solar flux, are presented; all with ±2sigma� uncertainties computed using the Monte Carlo technique outlined in the earlier papers. The open solar flux variation derived is shown to be very similar indeed to that obtained using the method of Lockwood et al. (1999).

Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr - Part 3: improved representation of solar cycle 11

Svalgaard (2014) has recently pointed out that the calibration of the Helsinki magnetic observatory’s H component variometer was probably in error in published data for the years 1866–1874.5 and that this makes the interdiurnal variation index based on daily means, IDV(1d), (Lockwood et al., 2013a), and the interplanetary magnetic field strength derived from it (Lockwood et al., 2013b), too low around the peak of solar cycle 11. We use data from the modern Nurmijarvi station, relatively close to the site of the original Helsinki Observatory, to confirm a 30% underestimation in this interval and hence our results are fully consistent with the correction derived by Svalgaard. We show that the best method for recalibration uses the Helsinki Ak(H) and aa indices and is accurate to ±10 %. This makes it preferable to recalibration using either the sunspot number or the diurnal range of geomagnetic activity which we find to be accurate to ±20 %. In the case of Helsinki data during cycle 11, the two recalibration methods produce very similar corrections which are here confirmed using newly digitised data from the nearby St Petersburg observatory and also using declination data from Helsinki. However, we show that the IDV index is, compared to later years, too similar to sunspot number before 1872, revealing independence of the two data series has been lost; either because the geomagnetic data used to compile IDV has been corrected using sunspot numbers, or vice versa, or both. We present corrected data sequences for both the IDV(1d) index and the reconstructed IMF (interplanetary magnetic field).We also analyse the relationship between the derived near-Earth IMF and the sunspot number and point out the relevance of the prior history of solar activity, in addition to the contemporaneous value, to estimating any “floor” value of the near-Earth interplanetary field.

Centennial variations in sunspot number, open solar flux and streamer belt width: 1. correction of the sunspot number record since 1874

We analyse the widely-used international/ Zürich sunspot number record, R, with a view to quantifying a suspected calibration discontinuity around 1945 (which has been termed the “Waldmeier discontinuity” [Svalgaard, 2011]). We compare R against the composite sunspot group data from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) network and the Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON), using both the number of sunspot groups, N{sub}G{\sub}, and the total area of the sunspots, A{sub}G{\sub}. In addition, we compare R with the recently developed interdiurnal variability geomagnetic indices IDV and IDV(1d). In all four cases, linearity of the relationship with R is not assumed and care is taken to ensure that the relationship of each with R is the same before and after the putative calibration change. It is shown the probability that a correction is not needed is of order 10{sup}−8{\sup} and that R is indeed too low before 1945. The optimum correction to R for values before 1945 is found to be 11.6%, 11.7%, 10.3% and 7.9% using A{sub}G{\sub}, N{sub)G{\sub}, IDV, and IDV(1d), respectively. The optimum value obtained by combining the sunspot group data is 11.6% with an uncertainty range 8.1-14.8% at the 2σ level. The geomagnetic indices provide an independent yet less stringent test but do give values that fall within the 2σ uncertainty band with optimum values are slightly lower than from the sunspot group data. The probability of the correction needed being as large as 20%, as advocated by Svalgaard [2011], is shown to be 1.6 × 10{sup}−5{\sup}.

Independence referendums: who should vote and who should be offered citizenship?

In this EUDO CITIZENSHIP Forum Debate, several authors consider the interrelations between eligibility criteria for participation in independence referendum (that may result in the creation of a new independent state) and the determination of putative citizenship ab initio (on day one) of such a state. The kick-off contribution argues for resemblance of an independence referendum franchise and of the initial determination of the citizenry, critically appraising the incongruence between the franchise for the 18 September 2014 Scottish independence referendum, and the blueprint for Scottish citizenship ab initio put forward by the Scottish Government in its 'Scotland's Future' White Paper. Contributors to this debate come from divergent disciplines (law, political science, sociology, philosophy). They reflect on and contest the above claims, both generally and in relation to regional settings including (in addition to Scotland) Catalonia/Spain, Flanders/Belgium, Quebec/Canada, Post-Yugoslavia and Puerto-Rico/USA.