An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in Grenada

Changing precipitation patterns and temperature relate directly to water resources and water security. This report presents the findings of an assessment of the water sector in Grenada with respect to the projected impact of climate change. Grenada‘s water resources comprise primarily surface water, with an estimated groundwater potential to satisfy about 10%-15% of the present potable requirement. On the smaller islands Carriacou and Petite Martinique, domestic water is derived exclusively from rainwater catchments. Rainfall seasonality is marked and the available surface water during the dry season declines dramatically. Changing land use patterns, increase in population, expansion in tourism and future implementation of proposed irrigation schemes are projected to increase future water requirements. Economic modeling approaches were implemented to estimate sectoral demand and supply between 2011 and 2050. Residential, tourism and domestic demand were analysed for the A2, B2 and BAU scenarios as illustrated. The results suggest that water supply will exceed forecasted water demand under B2 and BAU during all four decades. However under the A2 scenario, water demand will exceed water supply by the year 2025. It is important to note that the model has been constrained by the omission of several key parameters, and time series for climate indicators, data for which are unavailable. Some of these include time series for discharge data, rainfall-runoff data, groundwater recharge rates, and evapotranspiration. Further, the findings which seem to indicate adequacy of water are also masked by seasonality in a given year, variation from year to year, and spatial variation within the nation state. It is imperative that some emphasis be placed on data generation in order to better project for the management of Grenada‘s water security. This analysis indicates the need for additional water catchment, storage and distribution infrastructure, as well as institutional strengthening, in order to meet the future needs of the Grenadian population. Strategic priorities should be adopted to increase water production, increase efficiency, strengthen the institutional framework, and decrease wastage. Grenada has embarked on several initiatives that can be considered strategies toward adaptation to the variabilities associated with climate change. The Government should ensure that these programs be carried out to the optimal levels for reasons described above. The ―no-regrets approach‖ which intimates that measures will be beneficial with or without climate change should be adopted. A study on the Costs of Inaction for the Caribbean in the face of climate change listed Grenada among the countries which would experience significant impacts on GDP between now and 2100 without adaptation interventions. Investment in the water sector is germane to building Grenada‘s capacity to cope with the multivariate impact of changes in the parameters of climate.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in the Turks and Caicos Islands

The best description of water resources for Grand Turk was offered by Pérez Monteagudo (2000) who suggested that rain water was insufficient to ensure a regular water supply although water catchment was being practised and water catchment possibilities had been analysed. Limestone islands, mostly flat and low lying, have few possibilities for large scale surface storage, and groundwater lenses exist in very delicate equilibrium with saline seawater, and are highly likely to collapse due to sea level rise, improper extraction, drought, tidal waves or other extreme event. A study on the impact of climate change on water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands is a challenging task, due to the fact that the territory of the Islands covers different environmental resources and conditions, and accurate data are lacking. The present report is based on collected data wherever possible, including grey data from several sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Cuban meteorological service data sets. Other data were also used, including the author’s own estimates and modelling results. Although challenging, this was perhaps the best approach towards analysing the situation. Furthermore, IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios were used in the present study in an effort to reduce uncertainty. The main conclusion from the scenario approach is that the trend observed in precipitation during the period 1961 - 1990 is decreasing. Similar behaviour was observed in the Caribbean region. This trend is associated with meteorological causes, particularly with the influence of the North Atlantic Anticyclone. The annual decrease in precipitation is estimated to be between 30-40% with uncertain impacts on marine resources. After an assessment of fresh water resources in Turks and Caicos Islands, the next step was to estimate residential water demand based on a high fertility rate scenario for the Islands (one selected from four scenarios and compared to countries having similar characteristics). The selected scenario presents higher projections on consumption growth, enabling better preparation for growing water demand. Water demand by tourists (stopover and excursionists, mainly cruise passengers) was also obtained, based on international daily consumption estimates. Tourism demand forecasts for Turks and Caicos Islands encompass the forty years between 2011 and 2050 and were obtained by means of an Artificial Neural Networks approach. for the A2 and B2 scenarios, resulting in the relation BAU>B2>A2 in terms of tourist arrivals and water demand levels from tourism. Adaptation options and policies were analysed. Resolving the issue of the best technology to be used for Turks and Caicos Islands is not directly related to climate change. Total estimated water storage capacity is about 1, 270, 800 m3/ year with 80% capacity load for three plants. However, almost 11 desalination plants have been detected on Turks and Caicos Islands. Without more data, it is not possible to estimate long term investment to match possible water demand and more complex adaptation options. One climate change adaptation option would be the construction of elevated (30 metres or higher) storm resistant water reservoirs. The unit cost of the storage capacity is the sum of capital costs and operational and maintenance costs. Electricity costs to pump water are optional as water should, and could, be stored for several months. The costs arising for water storage are in the range of US$ 0.22 cents/m3 without electricity costs. Pérez Monteagudo (2000) estimated water prices at around US$ 2.64/m3 in stand points, US$ 7.92 /m3 for government offices, and US$ 13.2 /m3for cistern truck vehicles. These data need to be updated. As Turks and Caicos Islands continues to depend on tourism and Reverse Osmosis (RO) for obtaining fresh water, an unavoidable condition to maintaining and increasing gross domestic product(GDP) and population welfare, dependence on fossil fuels and vulnerability to increasingly volatile prices will constitute an important restriction. In this sense, mitigation supposes a synergy with adaptation. Energy demand and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) were also estimated using an emissions factor of 2. 6 tCO2/ tonne of oil equivalent (toe). Assuming a population of 33,000 inhabitants, primary energy demand was estimated for Turks and Caicos Islands at 110,000 toe with electricity demand of around 110 GWh. The business as usual (BAU), as well as the mitigation scenarios were estimated. The BAU scenario suggests that energy use should be supported by imported fossil fuels with important improvements in energy efficiency. The mitigation scenario explores the use of photovoltaic and concentrating solar power, and wind energy. As this is a preliminary study, the local potential and locations need to be identified to provide more relevant estimates. Macroeconomic assumptions are the same for both scenarios. By 2050, Turks and Caicos Islands could demand 60 m toe less than for the BAU scenario.

Metodologias de inteligência computacional aplicadas ao problema de previsão de carga a curto prazo

Diversas atividades de planejamento e operação em sistemas de energia elétrica dependem do conhecimento antecipado e preciso da demanda de carga elétrica. Por este motivo, concessionárias de geração e distribuição de energia elétrica cada vez mais fazem uso de tecnologias de previsão de carga. Essas previsões podem ter um horizonte de curtíssimo, curto, médio ou longo prazo. Inúmeros métodos estatísticos vêm sendo utilizados para o problema de previsão. Todos estes métodos trabalham bem em condições normais, entretanto deixam a desejar em situações onde ocorrem mudanças inesperadas nos parâmetros do ambiente. Atualmente, técnicas baseadas em Inteligência Computacional vêm sendo apresentadas na literatura com resultados satisfatórios para o problema de previsão de carga. Considerando então a importância da previsão da carga elétrica para os sistemas de energia elétrica, neste trabalho, uma nova abordagem para o problema de previsão de carga via redes neurais Auto-Associativas e algoritmos genéticos é avaliada. Três modelos de previsão baseados em Inteligência Computacional são também apresentados tendo seus desempenhos avaliados e comparados com o sistema proposto. Com os resultados alcançados, pôde-se verificar que o modelo proposto se mostrou satisfatório para o problema de previsão, reforçando assim a aplicabilidade de metodologias de inteligência computacional para o problema de previsão de cargas.

Spatio-temporal distribution of fish larvae in relation to ontogeny and water quality in the oligohaline zone of a North Brazilian estuary

O padrão de distribuição das larvas de peixes na Baía do Guajará foi estudado através de coletas trimestrais e discutido em relação aos estágios de desenvolvimento dos indivíduos e a exposição dos mesmos aos contaminantes despejados pela Capital do Estado do Pará, Belém. A densidade e a diversidade larval foram baixas com forte dominância dos clupeídeos, engraulídeos e, em menor grau, os cianídeos. O principal período de reprodução foi definido no início do período chuvoso. Larvas de Clupeiformes em pré-flexão e flexão foram encontradas nos pontos de coletas mais afastados da cidade, enquanto aquelas em pós-flexão prevaleceram nas margens da cidade. Por outro lado, os cianídeos em pré-flexão e flexão foram capturados perto dos centros de atividade urbana, enquando aqueles em pós-flexão foram pouco abundantes. É sugerido que a baía se encontra na rota migratória dos cianídeos entre a área de desova e os berçários mais distantes. Apesar das águas no entorno da cidade de Belém mostraram sinais de contaminação, a qualidade ambiental na Baía do Guajará no momento do estudo estava apropriada para a vida das larvas de peixes. Nitrato com pH foram as variáveis que melhor explicaram a distribuição larval.

Estimating cyclopoid copepod species richness and geographical distribution (Crustacea) across a large hydrographical basin: comparing between samples from water column (plankton) and macrophyte stands

Species richness and geographical distribution of Cyclopoida freshwater copepods were analyzed along the La Plata River basin. Ninety-six samples were taken from 24 sampling sites, twelve sites for zooplankton in open waters and twelve sites for zooplankton within macrophyte stands, including reservoirs and lotic stretches. There were, on average, three species per sample in the plankton compared to five per sample in macrophytes. Six species were exclusive to the plankton, 10 to macrophyte stands, and 17 were common to both. Only one species was found in similar proportions in plankton and macrophytes, while five species were widely found in plankton, and thirteen in macrophytes. The distinction between species from open water zooplankton and macrophytes was supported by nonmetric multidimensional analysis. There was no distinct pattern of endemicity within the basin, and double sampling contributes to this result. This lack of sub-regional faunal differentiation is in accordance with other studies that have shown that cyclopoids generally have wide geographical distribution in the Neotropics and that some species there are cosmopolitan. This contrasts with other freshwater copepods such as Calanoida and some Harpacticoida. We conclude that sampling plankton and macrophytes together provided a more accurate estimate of the richness and geographical distribution of these organisms than sampling in either one of those zones alone.

Previsão de demanda de cargas elétricas por seleção de variáveis stepwise e redes neurais artificiais

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

New records and distribution expansion for Neotropical water-striders (Insecta: Heteroptera: Gerromorpha)

Based on material from several collections, summarized distributions and new records are presented for selected Neotropical species of Gerromorpha of the families Gerridae (Brachymetra albinervis albinervis, B. furva, B. lata, B. shawi, Cylindrostethus erythropus, C. linearis, C. palmaris, C. regulus, Halobatopsis platensis, Limnogonus aduncus aduncus, L. hyalinus, L. ignotus, L. profugus, L. recurvus, Neogerris lubricus, N. magnus, N. lotus, N. visendus, Ovatametra gualeguay, Rheumatobates crassifemur crassifemur, R. c. esakii, Tachygerris adamsoni, T. celocis and T. surinamensis), Hydrometridae (Hydrometra guianana and H. sztolcmani) and Mesoveliidae (Mesovelia amoena, M. mulsanti and Mesoveloidea williamsi).

Feature extraction in pressure signals for leak detection in water networks

Techniques based on signal analysis for leak detection in water supply systems typically use long pressure and/or flow data series of variable length. This paper presents the feature extraction from pressure signals and their application to the identification of changes related to the onset of a leak. Example signals were acquired from an experimental laboratory circuit, and features were extracted from temporal domain and from transformed signals. Statistical analysis of features values and a classification method were applied. It was verified the feasibility of using feature vectors for distinguish data acquired in the absence or presence of a leak.

Artificial immune networks Copt-aiNet and Opt-aiNet applied to the reconfiguration problem of radial electrical distribution systems

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

An Efficient Scheduling Scheme For On-Demand Lightpath Reservations In Reconfigurable WDM Optical Networks

We propose an efficient scheduling scheme that optimizes advance-reserved lightpath services in reconfigurable WDM networks. A re-optimization approach is devised to reallocate network resources for dynamic service demands while keeping determined schedule unchanged.

Distribution of Rain Gardens in Lincoln Nebraska: Are Rain Gardens more Likely to be Built Near Bodies of Water

Abstract Rain gardens are an important tool in reducing the amount of stormwater runoff and accompanying pollutants from entering the city’s streams and lakes, and reducing their water quality. This thesis project analyzed the number of rain gardens installed through the City of Lincoln Nebraska Watershed Management’s Rain Garden Water Quality Project in distance intervals of one-eighth mile from streams and lakes. This data shows the distribution of these rain gardens in relation to streams and lakes and attempts to determine if proximity to streams and lakes is a factor in homeowners installing rain gardens. ArcGIS was used to create a map with layers to determine the number of houses with rain gardens in 1/8 mile distance increments from the city’s streams and lakes and their distances from a stream or lake. The total area, number of house parcels, and the type and location of each parcel type were also determined for comparison between the distance interval increments. The study revealed that fifty-eight percent of rain gardens were installed within a quarter mile of a stream or lake (an area covering 60% of the city and including 58.5% of the city’s house parcels), and that eighty percent of rain gardens were installed within three-eighth mile of streams or lakes (an area covering 75% of the city and 78.5% of the city’s house parcels). All parcels in the city are within 1 mile of a stream or lake. Alone the number of project houses per distance intervals suggested that proximity to a stream or lake was a factor in people’s decisions to install rain gardens. However, when compared to the number of house parcels available, proximity disappears as a factor in project participation.

Discriminating Different Classes of Biological Networks by Analyzing the Graphs Spectra Distribution

The brain's structural and functional systems, protein-protein interaction, and gene networks are examples of biological systems that share some features of complex networks, such as highly connected nodes, modularity, and small-world topology. Recent studies indicate that some pathologies present topological network alterations relative to norms seen in the general population. Therefore, methods to discriminate the processes that generate the different classes of networks (e. g., normal and disease) might be crucial for the diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of the disease. It is known that several topological properties of a network (graph) can be described by the distribution of the spectrum of its adjacency matrix. Moreover, large networks generated by the same random process have the same spectrum distribution, allowing us to use it as a "fingerprint". Based on this relationship, we introduce and propose the entropy of a graph spectrum to measure the "uncertainty" of a random graph and the Kullback-Leibler and Jensen-Shannon divergences between graph spectra to compare networks. We also introduce general methods for model selection and network model parameter estimation, as well as a statistical procedure to test the nullity of divergence between two classes of complex networks. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed methods by applying them to (1) protein-protein interaction networks of different species and (2) on networks derived from children diagnosed with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and typically developing children. We conclude that scale-free networks best describe all the protein-protein interactions. Also, we show that our proposed measures succeeded in the identification of topological changes in the network while other commonly used measures (number of edges, clustering coefficient, average path length) failed.

Water balance and spatial distribution of an anuran community from Brazil

Terrestrial amphibians may dehydrate when exposed to low humidity, representing an important factor affecting spatial distribution and community composition. In this study we investigated whether rates of dehydration and rehydration are able to explain the spatial distribution of an anuran community in a Restinga environment at the northern coast of the State of Bahia, Brazil, represented by 11 species distributed in 27 sample units. The environmental data set containing 20 variables was reduced to a few synthetic axes by principal component analysis (PCA). Physiological variables measured were rates of dehydration, rehydration from water, and rehydration from a neutral substrate. Multiple regression analyses were used to test the null hypothesis of no association between the environmental data set (synthetic axes of PCA) and each axis representative of a physiological variable, which was rejected (P < 0.001). Of 15 possible partial regressions only rehydration rate from neutral substrate vs. PC1. and PC2, rehydration rate from water vs. PC1, and dehydration rate vs. PC2 were significant. Our analysis was influenced by a gradient between two different groups of sample units: a beach area with high density of bromeliads and an environment without bodies of water with low density of bromeliads. Species of very specific natural history and morphological characters occur in these environments: Phyllodytes melanomystax and Scinax auratus, species frequently occurring in terrestrial bromeliads, and Ischnocnema paulodutrai, common along the northern coast of Bahia and usually found in forest remnants within environments with low number of bodies of water. In dry environments species with lower rates of dehydration were dominant, whereas species showing greater rates of dehydration were found predominantly in microhabitats with greater moisture or abundance of bodies of water.