Overconfidence and confirmation bias: are future managers vulnerable?

Decision makers often use ‘rules of thumb’, or heuristics, to help them handling decision situations (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979b). Those cognitive shortcuts are taken by the brain to cope with complexity and time limitation of decisions, by reducing the burden of information processing (Hodgkinson et al, 1999; Newell and Simon, 1972). Although crucial for decision-making, heuristics come at the cost of occasionally sending us off course, that is, make us fall into judgment traps (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974). Over fifty years of psychological research has shown that heuristics can lead to systematic errors, or biases, in decision-making. This study focuses on two particularly impactful biases to decision-making – the overconfidence and confirmation biases. A specific group – top management school students and recent graduates - were subject to classic experiments to measure their level of susceptibility to those biases. This population is bound to take decision positions at companies, and eventually make decisions that will impact not only their companies but society at large. The results show that this population is strongly biased by overconfidence, but less so to the confirmation bias. No significant relationship between the level of susceptibility to the overconfidence and to the confirmation bias was found.

Effect of price and in-store promotion on sales: a study of distinct regions in an emerging market

Increasing competition caused by globalization, high growth of some emerging markets and stagnation of developed economies motivate Consumer Packaged Goods (CPGs) manufacturers to drive their attention to emerging markets. These companies are expected to adapt their marketing activities to the particularities of these markets in order to succeed. In a country classified as emerging market, regions are not alike and some contrasts can be identified. In addition, divergences of marketing variables effect can also be observed in the different retail formats. The retail formats in emerging markets can be segregated in chain self-service and traditional full-service. Thus, understanding the effectiveness of marketing mix not only in country aggregated level data can be an important contribution. Inasmuch as companies aim to generate profits from emerging markets, price is an important marketing variable in the process of creating competitive advantage. Along with price, promotional variables such as in-store displays and price cut are often viewed as temporary incentives to increase short-term sales. Managers defend the usage of promotions as being the most reliable and fastest manner to increase sales and then short-term profits. However, some authors alert about sales promotions disadvantages; mainly in the long-term. This study investigates the effect of price and in-store promotions on sales volume in different regions within an emerging market. The database used is at SKU level for juice, being segregated in the Brazilian northeast and southeast regions and corresponding to the period from January 2011 to January 2013. The methodological approach is descriptive quantitative involving validation tests, application of multivariate and temporal series analysis method. The Vector-Autoregressive (VAR) model was used to perform the analysis. Results suggest similar price sensitivity in the northeast and southeast region and greater in-store promotion sensitivity in the northeast. Price reductions show negative results in the long-term (persistent sales in six months) and in-store promotion, positive results. In-store promotion shows no significant influence on sales in chain self-service stores while price demonstrates no relevant impact on sales in traditional full-service stores. Hence, this study contributes to the business environment for companies wishing to manage price and sales promotions for consumer brands in regions with different features within an emerging market. As a theoretical contribution, this study fills an academic gap providing a dedicated price and sales promotion study to contrast regions in an emerging market.

Padrões distintos de congruência climática em duas espécies invasoras de prosopis em zonas semi-áridas da América do Sul

Based on climate data and occurrence records, ecological niche models (ENM) are an important opportunity to identify areas at risk or vulnerable to biological invasion. These models are based on the assumption that there is a match between the climatic characteristic of native and invaded regions predicting the potential distribution of exotic species. Using new methods to measure niche overlap, we chose two exotic species fairly common in semi-arid regions of South America, Prosopis juliflora (Sw.) D.C. and Prosopis pallida (H. ; B. ex. Willd) HBK, to test the climate matching hypothesis. Our results indicate that both species occur with little niche overlap in the native region while the inverse pattern is observed in the invaded region on South America, where both species occur with high climatic overlap. Maybe some non-climate factor act limiting the spread of P. pallida on the native range. We believe that a founder effect can explain these similarities between species niche in the invaded region once the seeds planted in Brazil came from a small region on the Native range (Piura in Peru), where both species occur sympatric. Our hypothesis of a founder effect may be evident when we look at the differences between the predictions of the models built in the native and invaded ranges. Furthermore, our results indicate that P. juliflora shows high levels of climate matching between native and invaded ranges. However, conclusions about climate matching of P. pallida should be taken with caution. Our models based on climatic variables provide multiple locations suitable for occurrence of both species in regions where they still don t have occurrence records, including places of high interest for conservation.

Genotype by environment interaction for birth and weaning weights of composite beef cattle in different regions of Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evaluation of thermal stress indexes for dairy cows in tropical regions

Seis índices de estresse ambiental foram aplicados a 1.359 dados de 359 vacas Holandesas e 54 vacas Jersey em rebanhos comerciais do Ceará e Rio Grande do Norte. O critério de seleção aplicado aos índices foi sua correlação com a temperatura retal e a freqüência respiratória dos animais. O Índice de Temperatura e Umidade (THI) e o Índice de Globo e Umidade (BGHI) apresentaram os piores resultados, com correlações muito baixas com as respostas dos animais. Os índices escolhidos foram o Índice de Temperatura Equivalente (ESI), correlacionado significativamente com a temperatura retal (r = 0,293) e a freqüência respiratória (r = 0,520), e o Índice de Carga Térmica (HLI), com correlações r = 0,286 e r = 0,542 respectivamente.

Potential and costs for the production of electrolytic hydrogen in alcohol and sugar cane plants in the central and south regions of Brazil

This project verified the potential for the production of hydrogen via water electrolysis by using the exceeding electrical energy resultant from alcohol and sugar plants that use sugar cane bagasse as fuel. The studies were carried out in cogeneration plants authorized by the Electrical Energy National Agency (ANEEL). The processing history of sugar cane considered was based on the 2006/2007 harvests. The total bagasse produced, electrical energy generated and exceeding electrical energy in a year were calculated. It was obtained an average energy consumption value of 5.2 kWh Nm(-3) and the hydrogen production costs regarding the amount of sugar cane processed that ranged from US$ 0.50 to US$ 0.75 Nm(-3). The results pointed that the costs for the production of hydrogen via the bagasse exceeding energy are close to the production costs that use other sources of energy. As the energy generated from the bagasse is a renewable one, this alternative for the production of hydrogen is economical and environmentally viable. (C) 2008 International Association for Hydrogen Energy. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Water beetles in mountainous regions in southeastern Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Gene Expression Profiles Stratified according to Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus Susceptibility Regions

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Accentuated polymorphism of heterochromatin and nucleolar organizer regions in Astyanax scabripinnis (Pisces, Characidae): tools for understanding karyotypic evolution

Astyanax scabripinnis has been considered a species complex because it presents high karyotypic and morphological variability among its populations. In this work, individuals of two A. scabripinnis populations from different streams in the same hydrographic basin were analyzed through C-banding and AgNOR. Although they present distinct diploid numbers, they show meta and submetacentric chromosome groups highly conserved (numerically and morphologically). Other chromosomal characteristics are also shared by both populations, as the pattern of constitutive heterochromatin distribution (large blocks in the telomeric regions of subtelocentric and acrocentric chromosomes) and some nucleolar chromosomes. Inter-individual variations both in the number and size of heterochromatic blocks, and in the number and localization of NORs were verified in the studied populations, characterizing them as polymorphics for these regions. The mechanisms involved in the dispersion of heterochromatin and NORs through the karyotypes, as well as the possible events related to the generation of polymorphism of those regions are discussed. Furthermore, relationships between these populations and within the context of the scabripinnis complex are also approached.

Chromosome polymorphism of heterochromatin and nucleolar regions in two populations of the fish Astyanax bockmanni (Teleostei: Characiformes)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Caracterização e composição florística de uma comunidade savânica no Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil : subsídios para a conservação

Studies on Brazilian biodiversity are still very few and can observe the difference of knowledge between the different regions of the country. This affirmation can be verified in the investigation to identify the rare species in Brazil and the key biodiversity areas (ACBs). In that study were identified for Brasil 2.256 rare species and 752 ACBs. The Rio Grande do Norte (RN) was the only Brazilian state that has not been identified any rare species and no ACBs, possibly due to the lack of floristic studies in this state. A particular area was selected for this study: an area of ecological tension with savanna physiognomy in Rio do Fogo, RN. This savanna community is represented in RN in a fragment and immersed in restinga and caatinga and was identified and described only through of radar imagens there are no studies to date in loco . We have prepared the following questions about this community savanna: 1) The region delimited and described by through of radar images by the RADAMBRASIL, 1976, can be associated of the Cerrado, in terms of floristic ?; 2) What is the floristic composition of this area? This area includes rare species, endemic or endangered? 3) What is the geographical and phytogeographical distribution of plant species registered in this area? 4) Those plant species registered are endemic or have affinity with other areas phytoecological Brazilian? To answer these questions we performed a floristic inventory of the August 2007 to September/2009. The results are presented in two chapters (manuscripts). The first chapter, titled "The Savannah Rio Grande do Norte: floristic links with other plant formations in the Northeast and Center-West Brazil" was submitted to the Revista Brasileira de Botância. Chapter 1 discusses the phytogeographical distribution of the species, by comparing floristic studies conducted in the Cerrado, Caatinga and Restinga in the Northeast and Cerrado of the Central Brazil. The analysis of data of this study and compilation with other studies indicated that: i) the record of 94 plant species; ii) of total species, about 64% are associated with the Cerrado, the second specialized bibliography, and about 78% as the List of Species of Flora of Brazil. However, about 73% of total species (94) are also distributed in the Caatinga, the Atlantic forest 64%, the Amazon forest 64%, the Pantanal 15% and the Pampa 12%. Floristically the data show that the community studied is influenced by other floras, has a structure where grasses dominate and also because of his appearance the same savanna then be classified as a Savana gramíneo-lenhosa do tabuleiro . Chapter 2, titled "Considerations on the flora of a savanna community in Rio Grande do Norte, northeastern Brazil: Subsidy key area for conservation" was submitted to the Revista Natureza e Conservação. This has the objective of improve the knowledge of flora of Rio Grande do Norte and to identify possible rare species and consequently increase the key areas of biodiversity in Brazil. The data indicated that: i) of 94 species registered in the study area, 40 were new records for the Rio Grande do Norte state; ii) These citations to unpublished state, Stylosanthes montevidensis Vogel (Fabaceae) and Aristida laevis (Nees) Kunth (Poaceae) are indicated for the first time to the Northeast of Brazil; iii) are registered in the area 24 species endemic to Brazil and 63 non-endemic; iv) Aspilia procumbens Baker (Asteraceae) registered in the area is considered a restricted species and micro endemic Rio Grande do Norte, ie rare species; v) Aspilia procumbens is also cited in the category of critically endangered species and Stilpnopappus cearensis Hubber (Asteraceae) a species vulnerable to extinction. This study shows a new area phytoecological in Rio Grande do Norte and indicates the area's potential to contribute with the sites of global significance for biodiversity conservation, either locally, regionally and nationally. This will certainly contribute to respond some targets set by the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation and the Convention on Biological Diversity such as the inventory of vegetal diversity in a region with little collection, which will provide data that contributes to questions and themes related to biodiversity.

A agricultura familiar do Seridó potiguar: vulnerabilidade, percepção e adaptação às mudanças climáticas

At the semiarid regions of developing countries the rural population has always been vulnerable to the climatic variations e its consequences. The effects of the semiarid climate, together with other biophysics, social and political-economic factors, impair the agricultural production, generating a situation of food insecurity and poverty in the rural areas. With the occurrence of climate change, natural resources of the semiarid regions can became scarcer, what would directly affect the agricultural production and those who depend on it. Therefore, the present study sought to study one of the most susceptible areas to the effects of the semiarid climate and desertification of Rio Grande do Norte, the potiguar s Serido. The study aimed to analyze the socioeconomic and environmental factors that put farmers in a position of vulnerability to the effects of climate; assess their perceptions about climate variations that have already occurred and their knowledge about climate change and global warming, also to identify which adaptation strategies to climate they have adopted at the rural establishment. The survey was conducted in 29 communities of four counties of the potiguar s Serido Caico, Parelhas, Lagoa Nova and Acari. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with local leaders and 241 questionnaires were applied with the family farmers. It was found that in addition to environmental factors such as the scarcity of water resources and climatic conditions, other factors such as the environmental degradation, the small size of the properties, the lack of technical assistance and financial resources and also the low education levels reduce the resilience capacity of family farming to the effects of the Semiarid climate. With the occurrence of climate change, the challenges for family farming at Serido will intensify. If farmers cannot adapt, the impacts may preclude this category of agricultural production causing serious harm to food security and further increasing the vulnerability situation of these populations. Although the farmers perceived changes in climate, the lack resources and information appears as the main reasons preventing the adoption of adaptation strategies. The lack of knowledge about climate change and global warming and the impacts that these phenomena may cause are also limiting factors for adaptation. It is therefore essential to identify the factors that influence the adoption of adaptation strategies, and seek alternatives to living with the semiarid that can strengthen the resilience of family farming and social reproduction that allow agricultural segment, even in a climate change scenario

Microallelotyping defines novel regions of loss of heterozygosity in uterine leiomyomas

Uterine leiomyomas are extremely common, benign, smooth muscle tumors that represent a significant public health problem. Although there have been few molecular studies of uterine leiomyomas, most of them have reported a very low frequency of loss of heterozygosity (LOH) in different regions of the genome. The detection of LOH has been used to identify genomic regions that harbor tumor suppressor genes and to characterize different tumor types. We have used a set of 15 microsatellite polymorphism markers to examine the frequency of allele loss in a panel of 64 human uterine leiomyomas matched to normal DNAs. The markers were chosen from regions involved in losses identified by comparative genomic hybridization in a subset of uterine leiomyomas described in a previous report. DNA from tumors and normal tissue was amplified by the polymerase chain reaction and subsequently analyzed using an ABI Prism 377 DNA automated sequencer. The frequency of LOH observed was low, except for the markers D15S87 (15q26.3), D7S493 (7p15.3), and D7S517 (7p22.2). No changes in microsatellite size were detected in our samples. These results provide useful clues for identifying putative tumor suppressor genes associated with a subset of uterine leiomyomas. (C) 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Comparison of the sequences of the internal transcribed Spacer regions and PbGP43 genes of Paracoccidioides brasiliensis from patients and armadillos (Dasypus novemcinctus)

Paracoccidioides brasiliensis isolates from 10 nine-banded armadillos (Dasypus novemcinctus) were comparable with 19 clinical isolates by sequence analysis of the PbGP43 gene and ribosomal internal transcribed spacer 1 (ITS1) and ITS2 and by random amplified polymorphic DNA. In this original ITS study, eight isolates differed by one or three sites among five total substitution sites.

Antibacterial activity of propolis collected in different regions of Brazil

The aim of this study was to investigate the antibacterial activity of propolis samples from Goiás, Paraná and São Paulo States, Brazil, and their flavonoids content. Ethanolic extracts of propolis (EEP) were prepared (30g of propolis in 70% ethanol), and the microorganisms Staphylococcus aureus and Escherichia coli were tested. The methodology employed was agar diffusion using filter paper discs. Ampicillin and tetracycline were used as controls. Antibacterial activity was determined by the reading of inhibition zone diameters (mm) after 24 hours incubation at 37°C. Results demonstrated that EEP inhibited the growth of Staphylococcus aureus but not that of Escherichia coli. Tetracycline and ampicillin showed an efficient action against both bacteria. Flavonoids content was variable, depending on the propolis sample. According to the results, it may be concluded that EEP showed effective action against Gram-positive bacteria, independently on their geographic origin, and a positive correlation between antibacterial activity and flavonoids content.