Elimination of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a High CO2 Climate

Projections of future global sea level depend on reliable estimates of changes in the size of polar ice sheets. Calculating this directly from global general circulation models (GCMs) is unreliable because the coarse resolution of 100 km or more is unable to capture narrow ablation zones, and ice dynamics is not usually taken into account in GCMs. To overcome these problems a high-resolution (20 km) dynamic ice sheet model has been coupled to the third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3). A novel feature is the use of two-way coupling, so that climate changes in the GCM drive ice mass changes in the ice sheet model that, in turn, can alter the future climate through changes in orography, surface albedo, and freshwater input to the model ocean. At the start of the main experiment the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was increased to 4 times the preindustrial level and held constant for 3000 yr. By the end of this period the Greenland ice sheet is almost completely ablated and has made a direct contribution of approximately 7 m to global average sea level, causing a peak rate of sea level rise of 5 mm yr-1 early in the simulation. The effect of ice sheet depletion on global and regional climate has been examined and it was found that apart from the sea level rise, the long-term effect on global climate is small. However, there are some significant regional climate changes that appear to have reduced the rate at which the ice sheet ablates.

Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change

Accurate simulation of ice-sheet surface mass balance requires higher spatial resolution than is afforded by typical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), owing, in particular, to the need to resolve the narrow and steep margins where the majority of precipitation and ablation occurs. We have developed a method for calculating mass-balance changes by combining ice-sheet average time-series from AOGCM projections for future centuries, both with information from high-resolution climate models run for short periods and with a 20 km ice-sheet mass-balance model. Antarctica contributes negatively to sea level on account of increased accumulation, while Greenland contributes positively because ablation increases more rapidly. The uncertainty in the results is about 20% for Antarctica and 35% for Greenland. Changes in ice-sheet topography and dynamics are not included, but we discuss their possible effects. For an annual- and area-average warming exceeding 4.5 +/- 0.9 K in Greenland and 3.1 +/- 0.8 K in the global average, the net surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet becomes negative, in which case it is likely that the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated, raising global-average sea level by 7 m.

Assimilation of stratospheric ozone from MIPAS into a global general-circulation model: The September 2002 vortex split

Ozone and temperature profiles from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) have been assimilated, using three-dimensional variational assimilation, into a stratosphere troposphere version of the Met Office numerical weather-prediction system. Analyses are made for the month of September 2002, when there was an unprecedented split in the southern hemisphere polar vortex. The analyses are validated against independent ozone observations from sondes, limb-occultation and total column ozone satellite instruments. Through most of the stratosphere, precision varies from 5 to 15%, and biases are 15% or less of the analysed field. Problems remain in the vortex and below the 60 hPa. level, especially at the tropopause where the analyses have too much ozone and poor agreement with independent data. Analysis problems are largely a result of the model rather than the data, giving confidence in the MIPAS ozone retrievals, though there may be a small high bias in MIPAS ozone in the lower stratosphere. Model issues include an excessive Brewer-Dobson circulation, which results both from known problems with the tracer transport scheme and from the data assimilation of dynamical variables. The extreme conditions of the vortex split reveal large differences between existing linear ozone photochemistry schemes. Despite these issues, the ozone analyses are able to successfully describe the ozone hole split and compare well to other studies of this event. Recommendations are made for the further development of the ozone assimilation system.

The propagation mechanism of a vortex on the β plane

The propagation velocity and propagation mechanism for vortices on a β plane are determined for a reduced-gravity model by integrating the momentum equations over the β plane. Isolated vortices, vortices in a background current, and initial vortex propagation from rest are studied. The propagation mechanism for isolated anticyclones as well as cyclones, which has been lacking up to now, is presented. It is shown that, to first order, the vortex moves to generate a Coriolis force on the mass anomaly of the vortex to compensate for the force on the vortex due to the variation of the Coriolis parameter. Only the mass anomaly of the vortex is of importance, because the Coriolis force due to the motion of the bulk of the layer moving with the vortex is almost fully compensated by the Coriolis force on the motion of the exterior flow. Because the mass anomaly of a cyclone is negative the force and acceleration have opposite sign. The role of dipolar structures in steadily moving vortices is discussed, and it is shown that their overall structure is fixed by the steady westward motion of the mass anomaly. Furthermore, it is shown that reduced-gravity vortices are not advected with a background flow. The reason for this behavior is that the background flow changes the ambient vorticity gradient such that the vortex obtains an extra self-propagation term that exactly cancels the advection by the background flow. Last, it is shown that a vortex initially at rest will accelerate equatorward first, after which a westward motion is generated. This result is independent of the sign of the vortex.

Observed and simulated precursors of stratospheric polar vortex anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

The Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex is linked to surface weather. After Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in winter, the tropospheric circulation is often nudged towards the negative phase of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A strong stratospheric vortex is often associated with subsequent positive NAM/NAO conditions. For stratosphere–troposphere associations to be useful for forecasting purposes it is crucial that changes to the stratospheric vortex can be understood and predicted. Recent studies have proposed that there exist tropospheric precursors to anomalous vortex events in the stratosphere and that these precursors may be understood by considering the relationship between stationary wave patterns and regional variability. Another important factor is the extent to which the inherent variability of the stratosphere in an atmospheric model influences its ability to simulate stratosphere–troposphere links. Here we examine the lower stratosphere variability in 300-year pre-industrial control integrations from 13 coupled climate models. We show that robust precursors to stratospheric polar vortex anomalies are evident across the multi-model ensemble. The most significant tropospheric component of these precursors consists of a height anomaly dipole across northern Eurasia and large anomalies in upward stationary wave fluxes in the lower stratosphere over the continent. The strength of the stratospheric variability in the models was found to depend on the variability of the upward stationary wave fluxes and the amplitude of the stationary waves.

Effects of two potential pest management components, intercropping and yellow sticky plastic sheet traps in two differentially resistant potato cultivars for the management of myzus persicae (Sulzer)

Polyculture is traditionally a low-input agricultural system and is important in many developing countries. Polycultures of interplanted crops often support fewer pests at lower densities than monoculture and tend to increase number of natural enemies. Also Yellow Sticky Plastic Sheet Traps have proved useful for trapping aphids. A field study was conducted to study the effectiveness of these potential pest management techniques along with the partially resistant (Cardinal) and susceptible (Desiree) potato cultivars, by using their different combinations for the management of Myzus persicae (Sulzer). Berseem, Trifolium alexandrinum (L.) (family: Leguminosae) was used for intercropping with potatoes. The different combinations (treatments) used in this study were: 1) Cardinal-berseem mixed cropping+yellow sticky plastic sheet traps 2) Cardinal-berseem mixed cropping 3) Cardinal+yellow sticky plastic sheet traps 4) Cardinal separately+berseem (as land area equivalents in relation to the mixed cropping treatments) 5) Cardinal (sole crop). Treatments 6-10 were the same treatments, but with Desiree as the potato cultivar. All these treatments were used to evaluate their effects as management techniques for M. persicae, their percent parasitism, percent emergence rate of the parasitoid, Aphidius matricariae Haliday and yield of Cardinal and Desiree. Mixed cropping of Cardinal and berseem together with the yellow sticky plastic sheet traps reduced aphids by over 90% compared with numbers on the sole Cardinal crop. This combination proved in this experiment the most effective for reducing the aphid populations as compared with all other treatments. Maximum percent parasitism i.e. 6.97 and 6.94% (almost double that in the other treatments) was recorded in the potato berseem mixed cropping, with and without traps respectively. In the same two treatments, yield was increased significantly as compared with all other treatments. However no significant effects of any of the variable was evident on the percent emergence of A. matricariae.

Supramolecular parallel beta-sheet and amyloid-like fibril forming peptides using delta-aminovaleric acid residue

Four terminally blocked tripeptides containing delta-aminovaleric acid residue self-assemble to form supramolecular beta-sheet structures as are revealed from their FT-IR data. Single crystal X-ray diffraction studies of two representative peptides also show that they form parallel beta-sheet structures. Self-aggregation of these beta-sheet forming peptides leads to the formation of fibrillar structures, as is evident from scanning electron microscopic (SEM) and transmission electron microscopic (TEM) images. These peptide fibrils bind to a physiological dye, Congo red and exhibit a typical green-gold birefringence under polarized light, showing close resemblance to neurodegenerative disease causing amyloid fibrils. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An amyloid-like fibril forming antiparallel supramolecular beta-sheet from a synthetic tripeptide: a crystallographic signature

Single crystal X-ray diffraction studies of a terminally blocked tripeptide Boc-Leu(1)-Aib(2)-Leu(3)-OMe 1 demonstrates that it adopts a bend structure without any intramolecular hydrogen bond. Peptide 1 self-assembles to form a supramolecular antiparallel beta-sheet structure by various non-covalent interactions including intermolecular hydrogen bonds in the crystal and it exhibits amyloid-like fibrillar morphology in the solid state. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hydrogen-bonded dimer can mediate supramolecular beta-sheet formation and subsequent amyloid-like fibril formation: a model study

FT-IR data of six terminally blocked tripeptides containing Acp (epsilon-aminocaproic acid) reveals that all of them form supramolecular beta-sheets in the solid state. Single crystal X-ray diffraction studies of two peptides not only support this data but also disclose the fact that the supramolecular beta-sheet formation is initiated via dimer formation. The Scanning Electron Microscopic images of all peptides exhibit amyloid-like fibrils that show green birefringence after binding with Congo red, which is a characteristic feature of many neurodegenerative disease causing amyloid fibrils. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

beta-Sheet mediated self-assembly of dipeptides of omega-amino acids and remarkable fibrillation in the solid state

Single crystal X-ray diffraction studies show that the extended structure of dipeptide I Boc-beta-Ala-m-ABA-OMe (m-ABA: meta-aminobenzoic acid) self-assembles in the solid state by intermolecular hydrogen bonding to create an infinite parallel P-sheet structure. In dipeptide II Boc-gamma-Abu-m-ABA-OMe (gamma-Abu: gamma-aminobutyric acid), two such parallel beta-sheets are further cross-linked by intermolecular hydrogen bonding through m-aminobenzoic acid moieties. SEM (scanning electron microscopy) studies reveal that both the peptides I and II form amyloid-like fibrils in the solid state. The fibrils are also found to be stained readily by Congo red, a characteristic feature of the amyloid fiber whose accumulation causes several fatal diseases such as Alzheimer's, prion-protein etc.