Global radiative and climate effect of the water vapour continuum at visible and near-infrared wavelengths

Recent laboratory measurements show that absorption by the water vapour continuum in near-infrared windows may be about an order of magnitude higher than assumed in many radiation codes. The radiative impact of the continuum at visible and near-infrared wavelengths is examined for the present day and for a possible future warmer climate (with a global-mean total column water increase of 33%). The calculations use a continuum model frequently used in climate models (‘CKD’) and a continuum model where absorption is enhanced at wavelengths greater than 1 µm based on recent measurements (‘CAVIAR’). The continuum predominantly changes the partitioning between solar radiation absorbed by the surface and the atmosphere; changes in top-of-atmosphere net irradiances are smaller. The global-mean clear-sky atmospheric absorption is enhanced by 1.5 W m−2 (about 2%) and 2.8 W m−2 (about 3.5%) for CKD and CAVIAR respectively, relative to a hypothetical no-continuum case, with all-sky enhancements about 80% of these values. The continuum is, in relative terms, more important for radiation budget changes between the present day and a possible future climate. Relative to the no-continuum case, the increase in global-mean clear-sky absorption is 8% higher using CKD and almost 20% higher using CAVIAR; all-sky enhancements are about half these values. The effect of the continuum is estimated for the solar component of the water vapour feedback, the reduction in downward surface irradiance and precipitation change in a warmer world. For CKD and CAVIAR respectively, and relative to the no-continuum case, the solar component of the water vapour feedback is enhanced by about 4 and 9%, the change in clear-sky downward surface irradiance is 7 and 18% more negative, and the global-mean precipitation response decreases by 1 and 4%. There is a continued need for improved continuum measurements, especially at atmospheric temperatures and at wavelengths below 2 µm.

Flight of Meligethes aeneus at a range of altitudes

The pollen beetle, Meligethes aeneus, is a significant pest of oilseed rape crops and there is considerable research effort focused on developing novel, sustainable methods of integrated control. These insects rely on flight for all dispersal movements and we have investigated their flight patterns using a novel combination of data from suction traps, vertical-looking radar and field counts. Analysis of these preliminary data will help determine the best timing for different control measures within an integrated pest management strategy.

Farmers' interest in growing GM crops in the UK, in the context of a range of on-farm coexistence issues

Although no GM crops currently are licensed for commercial production in the UK, as opposition to GM crops by consumers softens, this could change quickly. Although past studies have examined attitudes of UK farmers toward GM technologies in general, there has been little work on the impact of possible coexistence measures on their attitudes toward GM crop production. This could be because the UK Government has not engaged in any public dialogue on the coexistence measures that might be applied on farms. Based on a farm survey, this article examines farmers’ attitudes toward GM technologies and planting intentions for three crops (maize, oilseed rape, and sugar beet) based on a GM availability scenario. The article then nuances this analysis with a review of farmer perceptions of the level of constraint associated with a suite of notional farm-level coexistence measures and issues, based on current European Commission guidelines and practice in other EU Member States.

Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble

Incomplete understanding of three aspects of the climate system—equilibrium climate sensitivity, rate of ocean heat uptake and historical aerosol forcing—and the physical processes underlying them lead to uncertainties in our assessment of the global-mean temperature evolution in the twenty-first century1,2. Explorations of these uncertainties have so far relied on scaling approaches3,4, large ensembles of simplified climate models1,2, or small ensembles of complex coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models5,6 which under-represent uncertainties in key climate system properties derived from independent sources7–9. Here we present results from a multi-thousand-member perturbed-physics ensemble of transient coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations. We find that model versions that reproduce observed surface temperature changes over the past 50 years show global-mean temperature increases of 1.4–3 K by 2050, relative to 1961–1990, under a mid-range forcing scenario. This range of warming is broadly consistent with the expert assessment provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report10, but extends towards larger warming than observed in ensemblesof-opportunity5 typically used for climate impact assessments. From our simulations, we conclude that warming by the middle of the twenty-first century that is stronger than earlier estimates is consistent with recent observed temperature changes and a mid-range ‘no mitigation’ scenario for greenhouse-gas emissions.

Analysis of wall plasters and natural sediments from the Neolithic town of Çatalhöyük (Turkey) by a range of analytical techniques

Wall plaster sequences from the Neolithic town of Çatalhöyük have been analysed and compared to three types of natural sediment found in the vicinity of the site, using a range of analytical techniques. Block samples containing the plaster sequences were removed from the walls of several different buildings on the East Mound. Sub-samples were examined by IR spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction and X-ray fluorescence to determine the overall mineralogical and elemental composition, whilst thin sections were studied using optical polarising microscopy, IR Microscopy and Environmental Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive X-ray analysis. The results of this study have shown that there are two types of wall plaster found in the sequences and that the sediments used to produce these were obtained from at least two distinct sources. In particular, the presence of clay, calcite and magnesian calcite in the foundation plasters suggested that these were prepared predominantly from a marl source. On the other hand, the finishing plasters were found to contain dolomite with a small amount of clay and no calcite, revealing that softlime was used in their preparation. Whilst marl is located directly below and around Çatalhöyük, the nearest source of softlime is 6.5 km away, an indication that the latter was important to the Neolithic people, possibly due to the whiter colour (5Y 8/1) of this sediment. Furthermore, the same two plaster types were found on each wall of Building 49, the main building studied in this research, and in all five buildings investigated, suggesting that the use of these sources was an established practice for the inhabitants of several different households across the site.

Intercomparison and evaluation of global aerosol microphysical properties among AeroCom models of a range of complexity

Many of the next generation of global climate models will include aerosol schemes which explicitly simulate the microphysical processes that determine the particle size distribution. These models enable aerosol optical properties and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations to be determined by fundamental aerosol processes, which should lead to a more physically based simulation of aerosol direct and indirect radiative forcings. This study examines the global variation in particle size distribution simulated by 12 global aerosol microphysics models to quantify model diversity and to identify any common biases against observations. Evaluation against size distribution measurements from a new European network of aerosol supersites shows that the mean model agrees quite well with the observations at many sites on the annual mean, but there are some seasonal biases common to many sites. In particular, at many of these European sites, the accumulation mode number concentration is biased low during winter and Aitken mode concentrations tend to be overestimated in winter and underestimated in summer. At high northern latitudes, the models strongly underpredict Aitken and accumulation particle concentrations compared to the measurements, consistent with previous studies that have highlighted the poor performance of global aerosol models in the Arctic. In the marine boundary layer, the models capture the observed meridional variation in the size distribution, which is dominated by the Aitken mode at high latitudes, with an increasing concentration of accumulation particles with decreasing latitude. Considering vertical profiles, the models reproduce the observed peak in total particle concentrations in the upper troposphere due to new particle formation, although modelled peak concentrations tend to be biased high over Europe. Overall, the multi-model-mean data set simulates the global variation of the particle size distribution with a good degree of skill, suggesting that most of the individual global aerosol microphysics models are performing well, although the large model diversity indicates that some models are in poor agreement with the observations. Further work is required to better constrain size-resolved primary and secondary particle number sources, and an improved understanding of nucleation and growth (e.g. the role of nitrate and secondary organics) will improve the fidelity of simulated particle size distributions.

The endophytic fungus Piriformospora indica protects wheat from Fusarium crown rot disease in simulated UK autumn conditions

The root endophytic fungus Piriformospora indica (Sebacinacea) forms mutualistic symbioses with a broad range of host plants, increasing their biomass production and resistance to fungal pathogens. We evaluated the effect of P. indica on Fusarium crown rot disease of wheat, under in vitro and glasshouse conditions. Interaction of P. indica and Fusarium isolates under axenic culture conditions indicated no direct antagonistic activity of P. indica against Fusarium isolates. Seedlings of wheat were inoculated with P. indica and pathogenic Fusarium culmorum or F. graminearum and grown in sterilised soil-free medium or in a non-sterilised mix of soil and sand. Fusarium alone reduced emergence and led to visible browning and reduced root growth. Roots of seedlings in pots inoculated with both Fusarium isolates and P. indica were free of visible symptoms; seed emergence and root biomass were equivalent to the uninoculated. DNA was quantified by real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). The ratio of Fusarium DNA to wheat DNA rose rapidly in the plants inoculated with Fusarium alone; isolates and species were not significantly different. P. indica inoculation reduced the ratio of Fusarium to host DNA in the root systems. The reduction increased with time. The ratio of P. indica to wheat DNA initially rose but then declined in root systems without Fusarium. With Fusarium, the ratio rose throughout the experiment. The absolute amount of Fusarium DNA in root systems increased in the absence of P. indica but was static in plants co-inoculated with P. indica.

Sensory profiles and consumer acceptability of a range of sugar-reduced products on the UK market

Current UK intake of non-milk extrinsic sugars (NMES) is above recommendations. Reducing the sugar content of processed high sugar foods through reformulation is one option for reducing consumption of NMES at a population level. However, reformulation can alter the sensory attributes of food products and influence consumer liking. This study evaluated consumer acceptance of a selection of products that are commercially-available in the UK; these included regular and sugar-reduced baked beans, strawberry jam, milk chocolate, cola and cranberry & raspberry juice. Sweeteners were present in the reformulated chocolate (maltitol), cola (aspartame and acesulfame-K) and juice (sucralose) samples. Healthy, non-smoking consumers (n = 116; 55 men, 61 women, age: 33 ± 9 years; BMI: 25.7 ± 4.6 kg/m2) rated the products for overall liking and on liking of appearance, flavor and texture using a nine-point hedonic scale. There were significant differences between standard and reduced sugar products in consumers’ overall liking and on liking of each modality (appearance, flavor and texture; all P < 0.0001). For overall liking, only the regular beans and cola were significantly more liked than their reformulated counterparts (P < 0.0001). Cluster analysis identified three consumer clusters that were representative of different patterns of consumer liking. For the largest cluster (cluster 3: 45%), there was a significant difference in mean liking scores across all products, except jam. Differences in liking were predominantly driven by sweet taste in 2 out of 3 clusters. The current research has demonstrated that a high proportion of consumers prefer conventional products over sugar-reduced products across a wide range of product types (45%) or across selected products (27%), when tasted unbranded, and so there is room for further optimization of commercial reduced sugar products that were evaluated in the current study. Future work should evaluate strategies to facilitate compliance to dietary recommendations on NMES and free sugars, such as the impact of sugar-reduced food exposure on their acceptance.

Typographic layout and first impressions: testing how changes in text layout influence reader's judgments of documents

This study explores how the typographic layout of information influences readers' impressions of magazine contents pages. Thirteen descriptors were used in a paired comparison procedure that assessed whether participants' rhetorical impressions of a set of six controlled documents change in relation to variations in layout. The combinations of layout attributes tested were derived from the structural attributes associated with three patterns of typographic differentiation (high, moderate, and low) described in a previous study (see Moys, 2014). The content and the range of stylistic attributes applied to the test material were controlled in order to focus on layout attributes. Triangulation of the quantitative and qualitative data indicates that, even within the experimental confines of limited stylistic differentiation, the layout attributes associated with patterns of high, moderate, and low typographic differentiation do influence readers' rhetorical judgments. In addition, the findings emphasize the importance of considering inter-relationships between clusters of typographic attributes rather than testing isolated variables.

Investigating readers’ impressions of typographic differentiation using repertory grids

Document designers combine a range of stylistic and structural typographic attributes to articulate and differentiate information for readers. This paper explores how the kind of typographic differentiation used in a document influences readers’ impressions of documents. A preliminary study indicated that three patterns of typographic differentiation (high, moderate and low) might underlie participants’ impressions of magazine design. Subsequently, a set of nine magazine layouts with controlled content was purposefully developed to systematically examine the impact of high, moderate and low patterns of typographic differentiation on participants’ impressions of documents. These documents were used in a repertory grid procedure to investigate the kind of impressions readers articulate in relation to typographic presentation and whether readers are likely to formulate similar or differing impressions from high, moderate, and low patterns of typographic differentiation. The results suggest that typographic differentiation influences a range of rhetorical and experiential judgments. For example, participants described high differentiation documents as the most attention-grabbing and easy to skim-read, while they considered moderate and low differentiation documents to require deeper reading strategies. In addition, participants assumed high differentiation documents to be much more sensationalist than moderate or low differentiation documents, which they generally perceived as authoritative and credible.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range

An analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12-36 hour lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models are presented as part of the "Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)" project. A lead time of 12-36 hours is chosen to constrain the large scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up for the models as they adjust to being driven from the YOTC analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests that the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large inter-model spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at mid-levels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behaviour shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in the precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. The wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. In addition, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.

Inferring the structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere during the Maunder minimum using global thermodynamic magnetohydrodynamic simulations

Observations of the Sun’s corona during the space era have led to a picture of relatively constant, but cyclically varying solar output and structure. Longer-term, more indirect measurements, such as from 10Be, coupled by other albeit less reliable contemporaneous reports, however, suggest periods of significant departure from this standard. The Maunder Minimum was one such epoch where: (1) sunspots effectively disappeared for long intervals during a 70 yr period; (2) eclipse observations suggested the distinct lack of a visible K-corona but possible appearance of the F-corona; (3) reports of aurora were notably reduced; and (4) cosmic ray intensities at Earth were inferred to be substantially higher. Using a global thermodynamic MHD model, we have constructed a range of possible coronal configurations for the Maunder Minimum period and compared their predictions with these limited observational constraints. We conclude that the most likely state of the corona during—at least—the later portion of the Maunder Minimum was not merely that of the 2008/2009 solar minimum, as has been suggested recently, but rather a state devoid of any large-scale structure, driven by a photospheric field composed of only ephemeral regions, and likely substantially reduced in strength. Moreover, we suggest that the Sun evolved from a 2008/2009-like configuration at the start of the Maunder Minimum toward an ephemeral-only configuration by the end of it, supporting a prediction that we may be on the cusp of a new grand solar minimum.

A critical evaluation of the ability of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) thermal infrared red-green-blue rendering to identify dust events: theoretical analysis

Using a combination of idealized radiative transfer simulations and a case study from the first field campaign of the Saharan Mineral Dust Experiment (SAMUM) in southern Morocco, this paper provides a systematic assessment of the limitations of the widely used Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) red-green-blue (RGB) thermal infrared dust product. Both analyses indicate that the ability of the product to identify dust, via its characteristic pink coloring, is strongly dependent on the column water vapor, the lower tropospheric lapse rate, and dust altitude. In particular, when column water vapor exceeds ∼20–25 mm, dust presence, even for visible optical depths of the order 0.8, is effectively masked. Variability in dust optical properties also has a marked impact on the imagery, primarily as a result of variability in dust composition. There is a moderate sensitivity to the satellite viewing geometry, particularly in moist conditions. The underlying surface can act to confound the signal seen through variations in spectral emissivity, which are predominantly manifested in the 8.7μm SEVIRI channel. In addition, if a temperature inversion is present, typical of early morning conditions over the Sahara and Sahel, an increased dust loading can actually reduce the pink coloring of the RGB image compared to pristine conditions. Attempts to match specific SEVIRI observations to simulations using SAMUM measurements are challenging because of high uncertainties in surface skin temperature and emissivity. Recommendations concerning the use and interpretation of the SEVIRI RGB imagery are provided on the basis of these findings.

Consumer attitudes to injurious pecking in free range egg production

Free range egg producers face continuing problems from injurious pecking (IP) which has financial consequences for farmers and poor welfare implications for birds. Beak trimming has been practised for many years to limit the damage caused by IP, but with the UK Government giving notification that they intend to ban beak trimming in 2016, considerable efforts have been made to devise feasible housing, range and management strategies to reduce IP. A recent research project investigated the efficacy of a range of IP reducing management strategies, the mean costs of which came to around 5 pence per bird. Here, the results of the above project’s consumer survey are presented: consumers’ attitudes to free range egg production are detailed showing that, whilst consumers had a very positive attitude towards free range eggs, they were especially uninformed about some aspects of free range egg production. The contingent valuation technique was used to estimate the price premium consumers would be prepared to pay to ensure that hens do not suffer from IP: this was calculated as just over 3% on top of the prevailing retail price of free range eggs. These findings reinforce other studies that have found that whilst consumers are not generally well-informed about certain specific welfare problems faced by animals under free range conditions, they are prepared to pay to improve animal welfare. Indeed, the study findings suggest that producers could obtain an additional price premium if they demonstrate the welfare provenance of their eggs, perhaps through marketing the eggs as coming from birds with intact beaks. This welfare provenance issue could usefully be assured to consumers by the introduction of a mandatory, single, accredited EU-wide welfare-standards labelling scheme.

Temporally stable feature clusters for maritime object tracking in visible and thermal imagery

This paper describes a new approach to detect and track maritime objects in real time. The approach particularly addresses the highly dynamic maritime environment, panning cameras, target scale changes, and operates on both visible and thermal imagery. Object detection is based on agglomerative clustering of temporally stable features. Object extents are first determined based on persistence of detected features and their relative separation and motion attributes. An explicit cluster merging and splitting process handles object creation and separation. Stable object clus- ters are tracked frame-to-frame. The effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated on four challenging real-world public datasets.