974 resultados para Variance Ratio Tests


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n the authors' previous paper, the Strain Energy Density Ratio (SEDR) criterion was proposed. As an example of applications, it was used to predict cracking direction of mixed-mode fracture in a random short fibre laminated composite.

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This paper analyzes the stationarity of this ratio in the context of a Markov-switching model à la Hamilton (1989) where an asymmetric speed of adjustment is introduced. This particular specification robustly supports a nonlinear reversion process and identifies two relevant episodes: the post-war period from the mid-50’s to the mid-70’s and the so called “90’s boom” period. A three-regime Markov-switching model displays the best regime identification and reveals that only the first part of the 90’s boom (1985-1995) and the post-war period are near-nonstationary states. Interestingly, the last part of the 90’s boom (1996-2000), characterized by a growing price-dividend ratio, is entirely attributed to a regime featuring a highly reverting process.

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Ponencia presentada y defendida en las XIV jornadas Hispano Lusas de Gestión Científica celebradas en Azores en febrero de 2004.