941 resultados para Variabilidade climatológica


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Os escoamentos no interior de zonas urbanas, apresentam grande heterogeneidade, pelo que a sua caracterização, requer uma formulação que incorpore explicitamente essa variabilidade espacial. A caracterização, simulação (à escala) e modelação do escoamento em canais artificiais e a aplicação a um caso de estudo, no Laboratório de Hidráulica da UMa, representa o cerne desta dissertação. Os objetivos principais desta dissertação são: a caracterização e desenvolvimento de ferramentas de simulação do comportamento do escoamento em canais artificiais, no caso de uma variação súbita dos caudais afluentes, mecanismos de prevenção de cheia; o desenvolvimento de um modelo de simulação hidrodinâmico, considerando os escoamentos variáveis em superfície livre no caso de situações de cheia, na simulação entre as condições variáveis das afluências, das condições hidromorfológicas do canal e da instalação e operação dos sistemas e regulação dos escoamentos; e ainda a análise da viabilidade da simulação (modelo) na gestão e prevenção de cheias em canais artificiais. Numa primeira instância, procede-se à recolha de toda a informação bibliográfica disponível. Com recurso aos modelos digitais do terreno e ao programa ArcGis, é efetuada toda uma exaustiva caracterização da bacia hidrográfica, relativa ao caso de estudo (canal artificial), a partir da qual foi possível obter os dados inerentes às características geométricas, características de relevo e características de drenagem. Segue-se a análise da precipitação com recurso a folhas de cálculo e dados fornecidos pelas instituições pertinentes, de forma a obter valores de precipitação média diária e anual para aplicação de fórmulas, tanto para calcular valores de tempo de concentração, bem como caudais. O próximo passo é selecionar os troços relevantes do canal em estudo e com recurso ao equipamento disponível no Laboratório de Hidráulica da UMa, à folha de cálculo programada e ao programa HEC-RAS procede-se à simulação/modelação/análise desses troços, comparando o resultado/comportamento simulado, com o expectável e entre os vários métodos. Por fim, são expostas as conclusões, bem como algumas considerações finais e uma listagem de objetivos a manter ou alcançar nos próximos anos, onde se incluem, ações prioritárias e recomendações visando, não só melhorar o processo de caracterização do escoamento em canais artificiais, bem como simplificar a prevenção e gestão de cheias.

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Esta dissertação contempla dois estudos e possui como objetivos: (1) estudar a relação entre a participação desportiva, aptidão física (AptF), atividade física (AF) e sedentarismo e (2) determinar a influência do apoio parental, dos pares e da autoeficácia nos níveis de AF geral e organizada. Participaram em ambos os estudos 240 raparigas, com idades entre os 9 e 15 anos, 71 praticantes de ginástica rítmica (GR), 87 de desportos coletivos (DC) e 82 não praticantes (NP). As participantes foram avaliadas na altura, peso, perímetro da cintura e pregas de adiposidade tricipital e geminal. A AptF foi avaliada através da bateria de teste FitnessGram (Cooper Institute, 2010). A AF (Crocker et al., 1997), atividades sedentárias (ASed), a maturação sexual (Tanner, 1962), o apoio parental e dos pares (Prochaska et al., 2002) e a autoeficácia (Motl et al., 2000) foram avaliados através de questionários. Principais resultados: (1) independentemente do grupo de participação desportiva constataram-se reduzidos níveis de AF e de AptF; as ginastas apresentam níveis de AptF e de AF mais elevados comparativamente às NP (p<0,05) e praticantes de DC (p>0,05), não se registando diferenças nas ASed (p>0,05). (2) Verificou-se diferenças no apoio social (parental e dos pares) e na autoeficácia, entre as NP com as praticantes de DC (p<0,05) e com as praticantes de GR (p<0,05). As ginastas reportaram, em média, níveis mais elevados de apoio social (parental e dos pares) e de autoeficácia. Através da regressão linear múltipla, constata-se que níveis mais elevados de apoio parental e dos pares estão associados a níveis de AF mais elevados (p>0,05), sendo que 9,8% da variabilidade dos níveis de AF é explicado pelo apoio parental e 4,1% pelo apoio dos pares. Este trabalho reforça a necessidade de elaboração de programas de intervenção que potencializem a AF, e que devem contemplar estratégias de apoio social e promoção da autoeficácia.

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The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

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The consumption of energy on the planet is currently based on fossil fuels. They are responsible for adverse effects on the environment. Renewables propose solutions for this scenario, but must face issues related to the capacity of the power supply. Wind energy offshore emerging as a promising alternative. The speed and stability are greater winds over oceans, but the variability of these may cause inconvenience to the generation of electric power fluctuations. To reduce this, a combination of wind farms geographically distributed was proposed. The greater the distance between them, the lower the correlation between the wind velocity, increasing the likelihood that together achieve more stable power system with less fluctuations in power generation. The efficient use of production capacity of the wind park however, depends on their distribution in marine environments. The objective of this research was to analyze the optimal allocation of wind farms offshore on the east coast of the U.S. by Modern Portfolio Theory. The Modern Portfolio Theory was used so that the process of building portfolios of wind energy offshore contemplate the particularity of intermittency of wind, through calculations of return and risk of the production of wind farms. The research was conducted with 25.934 observations of energy produced by wind farms 11 hypothetical offshore, from the installation of 01 simulated ocean turbine with a capacity of 5 MW. The data show hourly time resolution and covers the period between January 1, 1998 until December 31, 2002. Through the Matlab R software, six were calculated minimum variance portfolios, each for a period of time distinct. Given the inequality of the variability of wind over time, set up four strategies rebalancing to evaluate the performance of the related portfolios, which enabled us to identify the most beneficial to the stability of the wind energy production offshore. The results showed that the production of wind energy for 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001 should be considered by the portfolio weights calculated for the same periods, respectively. Energy data for 2002 should use the weights derived from the portfolio calculated in the previous time period. Finally, the production of wind energy in the period 1998-2002 should also be weighted by 1/11. It follows therefore that the portfolios found failed to show reduced levels of variability when compared to the individual production of wind farms hypothetical offshore

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This master thesis introduces assessment procedures of daylighting performance in office rooms with shaded opening, recommendations for Natal-RN (Latitude 05,47' S, Longitude 35,11' W). The studies assume the need of window exterior shading in hot and humid climate buildings. The daylighting performance analyses are based on simulated results for three levels of illuminance (300,500 e 1000 lux) between 08h00 e 16h00, in rooms with 2,80 m height, 6 m large and 4 m, 6 m e 8 m depths, with a centered single opening, window wall ratio (20%, 40% e 60%), four orientations (North, East, South and West), and two types of sky (clear and partially cloudy). The sky characteristics were statistically determined based on hourly data from INPE-CRN solar and daylighting weather station. The lighting performance is resulted from dynamic computer simulation of 72 models using Troplux 3.12. The simulation results were assessed using a new parameter to quantify the use of interior daylighting, the useful percentage of daylight (PULN), which corresponds to the time fraction with satisfactory light, in accordance with the illuminance design. The passive zone depths are defined based on the PULN. Despite the failures of illuminance data from the weather station, the analyses ratified the high potential of daylighting for shaded rooms. The most influential variables on the lighting performance are the opening size and the illuminance of design, while the orientation is a little influential

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

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The objective of this study was to examine the growth of Gracilaria cervicornis cultured in a shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) pond and to determine the absorption efficiency and the kinetics parameters (Vmax, Ks e Vmax:Ks) of this macroalgae for the nutrients N-NO3-, N-NH4+ and P-PO4-3, aiming at its use as bioremediatory of eutrophicated environments. For this study, two experiments (field and laboratory) were developed. In the field study, the seaweed was examined in relation to the growth and the biomass. In the laboratory experiment, the absorption efficiency of G. cervicornis was measured through the monitoring of the concentration of the three nutrients (N-NO3-, N-NH4+ e P-PO4-3) during 5 hours and the kinetic parameters were determined through the formula of Michaelis-Menten. The results obtained in this study demonstrated that G. cervicornis benefited from the available nutrients in the pond, increasing 52.4% of its biomass value after 30 days of culture. It was evidenced that the variability of the biomass could be explained through the salinity, availability of light (transparency and solid particle in suspension) and concentration of N-NO3- in the environment. In the laboratory experiment, the highest absorption efficiency was found in the treatments with low concentration (5 µmol.L-1), being evidenced a reduction of up to 85,3%, 97,5% and 81,2% of N-NH4+, N-NO3- and P-PO43-, respectively. Regarding the kinetic parameters, G. cervicornis presented better ability in absorbing N-NH4+ in high concentrations (Vmax = 158,5 µmol g-1 dry wt h-1) and P-PO43- in low concentrations (Ks = 5 µmol.L-1 e Vmax:Ks = 10,3). The results of this study show that G. cervicornis could be cultivated in shrimp ponds, presents a good capacity of absorption for the tested nutrients and is a promising candidate for biorremediation in shrimp pond effluent

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

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Worldwide, families Carangidae and Rachycentridae represent one of the groups most important commercial fish, used for food, and great potential for marine aquaculture. However, the genetic bases that can underpin the future cultivation of these species, cytogenetic between these aspects are very weak. The chromosomal patterns have provided basic data for the exploration of biotechnological processes aimed at handling chromosomal genetic improvement, such as induction of polyploidy, androgenesis and ginogenesis, as well as obtaining monosex stocks and interspecific hybridizations. This paper presents a comprehensive cytogenetic survey in 10 species, seven of the family Carangidae and the monotypic family Rachycentridae. Classical cytogenetic analysis and in situ mapping of multigene sequences were employed, and additionally for the genus Selene and morphotypes of Caranx lugubris, comparisons were made using geometric morphometrics. In general, conservative species exhibit a marked chromosome number (2n=48). Although present in large part, different karyotypic form, retain many characteristics typical of chromosomal Order Perciformes, the high number of elements monobrachyal, Ag-NORs/18S rDNA sites and heterochromatin simply reduced, preferably centromeric. The main mechanisms involved in karyotypic diversification are the pericentric inversions, with secondary action of centric fusions. In addition to physical mapping and chromosome detail for the species are presented and discussed patterns of intra-and interspecific diversity, cytotaxonomic markers. This data set provides a better understanding of these patterns caryoevolutyonary groups and conditions for the development of protocols based on Biotechnology for chromosomal manipulation Atlantic these species

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With the high oil price variability, the petroleum and the reservoir engineers are usually face to face on how they can evaluate the well performance and productivity. They can improve high productivity from the well construction to the secondary recoveries, but they have never tried a measurement in the drilling operations about the lower productivity index. As a rule, frequently the drilling operations hear from the reservoir engineering and geology that, if there is a formation damage, probably some drilling operations practices were not done properly or the good practice in petroleum engineering or mud engineering were not observed. The study in this working search is an attempt of how to measure a formation damage just from the project drilling to the drilling operations, with datum from the fields in Brazilian northeast and putting into practice a Simulator developed from the modeling on the theory offered by different experts and sources in formation damage

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The general objective of this thesis has been seasonal monitoring (quarterly time scale) of coastal and estuarine areas of a section of the Northern Coast of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, environmentally sensitive and with intense sediment erosion in the oil activities to underpin the implementation of projects for containment of erosion and mitigate the impacts of coastal dynamics. In order to achieve the general objective, the work was done systematically in three stages which consisted the specific objectives. The first stage was the implementation of geodetic reference infrastructure for carrying out the geodetic survey of the study area. This process included the implementation of RGLS (Northern Coast of the RN GPS Network), consisting of stations with geodetic coordinates and orthometric heights of precision; positioning of Benchmarks and evaluation of the gravimetric geoid available, for use in GPS altimetry of precision; and development of software for GPS altimetry of precision. The second stage was the development and improvement of methodologies for collection, processing, representation, integration and analysis of CoastLine (CL) and Digital Elevation Models (DEM) obtained by geodetic positioning techniques. As part of this stage have been made since, the choice of equipment and positioning methods to be used, depending on the required precision and structure implanted, and the definition of the LC indicator and of the geodesic references best suited, to coastal monitoring of precision. The third step was the seasonal geodesic monitoring of the study area. It was defined the execution times of the geodetic surveys by analyzing the pattern of sediment dynamics of the study area; the performing of surveys in order to calculate and locate areas and volumes of erosion and accretion (sandy and volumetric sedimentary balance) occurred on CL and on the beaches and islands surfaces throughout the year, and study of correlations between the measured variations (in area and volume) between each survey and the action of the coastal dynamic agents. The results allowed an integrated study of spatial and temporal interrelationships of the causes and consequences of intensive coastal processes operating in the area, especially to the measurement of variability of erosion, transport, balance and supply sedimentary over the annual cycle of construction and destruction of beaches. In the analysis of the results, it was possible to identify the causes and consequences of severe coastal erosion occurred on beaches exposed, to analyze the recovery of beaches and the accretion occurring in tidal inlets and estuaries. From the optics of seasonal variations in the CL, human interventions to erosion contention have been proposed with the aim of restoring the previous situation of the beaches in the process of erosion.

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The present study provides a methodology that gives a predictive character the computer simulations based on detailed models of the geometry of a porous medium. We using the software FLUENT to investigate the flow of a viscous Newtonian fluid through a random fractal medium which simplifies a two-dimensional disordered porous medium representing a petroleum reservoir. This fractal model is formed by obstacles of various sizes, whose size distribution function follows a power law where exponent is defined as the fractal dimension of fractionation Dff of the model characterizing the process of fragmentation these obstacles. They are randomly disposed in a rectangular channel. The modeling process incorporates modern concepts, scaling laws, to analyze the influence of heterogeneity found in the fields of the porosity and of the permeability in such a way as to characterize the medium in terms of their fractal properties. This procedure allows numerically analyze the measurements of permeability k and the drag coefficient Cd proposed relationships, like power law, for these properties on various modeling schemes. The purpose of this research is to study the variability provided by these heterogeneities where the velocity field and other details of viscous fluid dynamics are obtained by solving numerically the continuity and Navier-Stokes equations at pore level and observe how the fractal dimension of fractionation of the model can affect their hydrodynamic properties. This study were considered two classes of models, models with constant porosity, MPC, and models with varying porosity, MPV. The results have allowed us to find numerical relationship between the permeability, drag coefficient and the fractal dimension of fractionation of the medium. Based on these numerical results we have proposed scaling relations and algebraic expressions involving the relevant parameters of the phenomenon. In this study analytical equations were determined for Dff depending on the geometrical parameters of the models. We also found a relation between the permeability and the drag coefficient which is inversely proportional to one another. As for the difference in behavior it is most striking in the classes of models MPV. That is, the fact that the porosity vary in these models is an additional factor that plays a significant role in flow analysis. Finally, the results proved satisfactory and consistent, which demonstrates the effectiveness of the referred methodology for all applications analyzed in this study.

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Since the beginning of the National Program for Production and Use of Biodiesel in Brazil, in 2004, different raw materials were evaluated for biodiesel production, trying to combine the agricultural diversity of the country to the desire to reduce production coasts. To determine the chemical composition of biodiesel produced from common vegetables oils, international methods have been used widely in Brazil. However, for analyzing biodiesel samples produced from some alternative raw materials analytical problems have been detected. That was the case of biodiesel from castor oil. Due the need to overcome these problems, new methodologies were developed using different chromatographic columns, standards and quantitative methods. The priority was simplifying the equipment configuration, realizing faster analyses, reducing the costs and facilitating the routine of biodiesel research and production laboratories. For quantifying free glycerin, the ethylene glycol was used in instead of 1,2,4-butanetriol, without loss of quality results. The ethylene glycol is a cheaper and easier standard. For methanol analyses the headspace was not used and the cost of the equipment used was lower. A detailed determination of the esters helped the deeper knowledge of the biodiesel composition. The report of the experiments and conclusions of the research that resulted in the development of alternative methods for quality control of the composition of the biodiesel produced in Brazil, a country with considerable variability of species in agriculture, are the goals of this thesis and are reported in the following pages

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The Northeast of Brazil (NEB) shows high climate variability, ranging from semiarid regions to a rainy regions. According to the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the NEB is highly susceptible to climate change, and also heavy rainfall events (HRE). However, few climatology studies about these episodes were performed, thus the objective main research is to compute the climatology and trend of the episodes number and the daily rainfall rate associated with HRE in the NEB and its climatologically homogeneous sub regions; relate them to the weak rainfall events and normal rainfall events. The daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the Agência Nacional de Águas, from 1972 to 2002. For selection of rainfall events used the technique of quantiles and the trend was identified using the Mann-Kendall test. The sub regions were obtained by cluster analysis, using as similarity measure the Euclidean distance and Ward agglomerative hierarchical method. The results show that the seasonality of the NEB is being intensified, i.e., the dry season is becoming drier and wet season getting wet. The El Niño and La Niña influence more on the amount of events regarding the intensity, but the sub-regions this influence is less noticeable. Using daily data reanalysis ERAInterim fields of anomalies of the composites of meteorological variables were calculated for the coast of the NEB, to characterize the synoptic environment. The Upper-level cyclonic vortex and the South atlantic convergene zone were identified as the main weather systems responsible for training of EPI on the coastland

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The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period