Solving non-linear stochastic models by parameterizing expectations: An application to asset pricing with production

A new algorithm called the parameterized expectations approach(PEA) for solving dynamic stochastic models under rational expectationsis developed and its advantages and disadvantages are discussed. Thisalgorithm can, in principle, approximate the true equilibrium arbitrarilywell. Also, this algorithm works from the Euler equations, so that theequilibrium does not have to be cast in the form of a planner's problem.Monte--Carlo integration and the absence of grids on the state variables,cause the computation costs not to go up exponentially when the numberof state variables or the exogenous shocks in the economy increase. \\As an application we analyze an asset pricing model with endogenousproduction. We analyze its implications for time dependence of volatilityof stock returns and the term structure of interest rates. We argue thatthis model can generate hump--shaped term structures.

Towards equivalent health care of prisoners: European soft law and public health policy in Geneva.

Prisoners have a right to health care and to be protected against inhumane and degrading treatment. Health care personnel and public policy makers play a central role in the protection of these rights and in the pursuit of public health goals. This article examines the legal framework for prison medicine in the canton of Geneva, Switzerland and provides examples of this framework that has shaped prisoners' medical care, including preventive measures. Geneva constitutes an intriguing example of how the Council of Europe standards concerning prison medicine have acquired a legal role in a Swiss canton. Learning how these factors have influenced implementation of prison medicine standards in Geneva may be helpful to public health managers elsewhere and encourage the use of similar strategies.

Réponses de la musaraigne musette Crocidura russula, aux marquages odorants d'individus de son espèce (Insectivota, Soricidae)

In order to evaluate the reaction to conspecifics scent tracks of Crocidura russula, a shrew with poorly developped territorial behaviour, simple choice tests in a Y-shaped systems were used. C. russula prefers a marked path to an unmarked one, the tracks of an unknown individual to its own, the tracks of an individual of the opposite sex to those of an individual of the same sex, and the tracks of its sexual partner to those of another individual of the same sex. The choices between two tracks gave a less obvious result than the choices between a marked path and an unmarked one. Ecological and social implications of these results are discussed.

A propos de la position systématique des genres Nectogale et Chimarrogale (Mammalia, Insectivora)

The terminal segment of the intermediate hair in the semi-aquatic Chirmarrogale hantu and Bectigale elegans is investigated with a view to a taxonomic interpretation. Nectogale is characterized by especially fine hairs which strongly contrast with the distally thickened hairs of Chimarrogale. In spite of these differences, the hairs of both genera are characterized by a H-shaped profile. According to Vogel & Köpchen (1977), this criterion confirms the discussed membership to the Soricinae.

Strategic behavior and price discovery

The paper analyzes the effects of strategic behavior by an insider in a price discovery process, akin to an information tatonnement, in the presence of a competitive informed sector. Such processes are used in the preopening period of continuous trading systems in several exchanges. It is found that the insider manipulates the market using a contrarian strategy in order to neutralize the effect of the trades of competitive informed agents. Furthermore, consistently with the empirical evidence available, we find that information revelation accelerates close to the opening, that the market price does not converge to the fundamental value no matter how many rounds the tatonnement has, and that the expected trading volume displays a U-shaped pattern. We also find that a market with a larger competitive sector (smaller insider) has an improved informational efficiency and an increased trading volume. The insider provides a public good (a lower informativeness of the price) for the competitive informed sector.

Unravelling the enigmatic origin of calcitic nanofibres in soils and caves: purely physicochemical or biogenic processes?

Calcitic nanofibres are ubiquitous habits of sec- ondary calcium carbonate (CaCO3 ) accumulations observed in calcareous vadose environments. Despite their widespread occurrence, the origin of these nanofeatures remains enig- matic. Three possible mechanisms fuel the debate: (i) purely physicochemical processes, (ii) mineralization of rod-shaped bacteria, and (iii) crystal precipitation on organic templates. Nanofibres can be either mineral (calcitic) or organic in na- ture. They are very often observed in association with needle fibre calcite (NFC), another typical secondary CaCO3 habit in terrestrial environments. This association has contributed to some confusion between both habits, however they are truly two distinct calcitic features and their recurrent asso- ciation is likely to be an important fact to help understanding the origin of nanofibres. In this paper the different hypotheses that currently exist to explain the origin of calcitic nanofibres are critically reviewed. In addition to this, a new hypothe- sis for the origin of nanofibres is proposed based on the fact that current knowledge attributes a fungal origin to NFC. As this feature and nanofibres are recurrently observed together, a possible fungal origin for nanofibres which are associated with NFC is investigated. Sequential enzymatic digestion of the fungal cell wall of selected fungal species demonstrates that the fungal cell wall can be a source of organic nanofibres. The obtained organic nanofibres show a striking morpho- logical resemblance when compared to their natural coun- terparts, emphasizing a fungal origin for part of the organic nanofibres observed in association with NFC. It is further hy- pothesized that these organic nanofibres may act as templates for calcite nucleation in a biologically influenced mineraliza- tion process, generating calcitic nanofibres. This highlights the possible involvement of fungi in CaCO3 biomineraliza- tion processes, a role still poorly documented. Moreover, on a global scale, the organomineralization of organic nanofi- bres into calcitic nanofibres might be an overlooked process deserving more attention to specify its impact on the biogeo- chemical cycles of both Ca and C.

Satisfaction in choice as a function of the number of alternatives: When "goods satiate" but "bads escalate"

Whereas people are typically thought to be better off with more choices, studiesshow that they often prefer to choose from small as opposed to large sets of alternatives.We propose that satisfaction from choice is an inverted U-shaped function of thenumber of alternatives. This proposition is derived theoretically by considering thebenefits and costs of different numbers of alternatives and is supported by fourexperimental studies. We also manipulate the perceptual costs of information processingand demonstrate how this affects the resulting satisfaction function. We furtherindicate that satisfaction when choosing from a given set is diminished if people aremade aware of the existence of other choice sets. The role of individual differences insatisfaction from choice is documented by noting effects due to gender and culture. Weconclude by emphasizing the need to have an explicit rationale for knowing how muchchoice is enough.

A estação arqueológica de Salamansa (ilha de São Vicente, República de Cabo Verde)

Apresentam‑se os principais resultados obtidos nas duas missões arqueológicas patrocinadas pelo Centro Português de Actividades Subaquáticas (CPAS) à ilha de São Vicente (República de Cabo Verde), em 1998 e em 2005. Em 1998, confirmou‑se o efectivo interesse arqueológico do sítio, localizado sobre o mar, em local abrigado da vasta baía de Salamansa, situada na parte setentrional da ilha, tendo‑se registado a respectiva extensão e estratigrafia e procedido à colheita de amostras para datação. Embora os resultados dessa campanha tivessem sido publicados, indicando estação de carácter habitacional, revelada pela notável acumulação de conchas, acompanhada de abundantes fragmentos de cerâmicas manuais, de produção africana, mantinha‑se indefinida a sua verdadeira natureza. Impunha‑se, assim, proceder à escavação integral da área que ainda subsistia da estação — sujeita de forma contínua a forte erosão marinha — bem como à colheita de novos materiais para datação, de forma a confirmar as conclusões preliminares anteriormente obtidas, objectivos que se concretizaram em 2005. Deste modo, foi possível concluir que, contrariando a hipótese, de início considerada, de poder corresponder a um testemunho da ocupação da ilha em época anterior à chegada dos Portugueses — hipótese que já as primeiras datas de radiocarbono contradiziam — se trata de um sítio onde uma unidade habitacional construída por muros de pedra seca, de planta ortogonal, revela inspiração europeia, aliás sublinhada pelos materiais exumados, onde estão representados produtos com tal origem, como cachimbos de caulino, vidros, faianças portuguesas, e projécteis de armas de fogo, a par de objectos oriundos do Extremo Oriente, num quadro dominado pelas produções cerâmicas africanas. Esta situação evidencia um estabelecimento cuja ocupação se centrou no século XVII, conforme indicam os materiais recolhidos e os resultados das datações obtidas, francamente aberto aos contactos de longa distância, apesar do isolamento do local escolhido. Os restos faunísticos recolhidos, com a presença deburro e de boi, sugerem um estacionamento sedentário, sendo a alimentação assegurada essencialmente pela captura de tartarugas, pela pesca e pela recolecção de moluscos marinhos (especialmente grandes lapas) e complementada pelo consumo de cabra, que poderia ser doméstica ou caçada, dado o estado selvagem a que retornou ali esta espécie. na última parte do trabalho, discutem‑se as diversas hipóteses susceptíveis de explicar esta estação — desde um entreposto comercial relacionado com a exploração agro‑pecuária da ilha de Santo Antão, passando por pequeno estabelecimento especializado de apoio à navegação, com a produção de carne salgada de tartaruga, até ter constituído refúgio relacionado com a intensa pirataria vigente à época no arquipélago, tendo presente os elementos históricos conhecidos, que, aliás, indicam que o início da ocupação permanente de São Vicente só se produziu a partir da segunda década do século XIX. Seja como for, a forte componente cultural africana revelada pelo espólio destes primeiros ocupantes da ilha expressa‑se também pelos rituais que terão envolvido o abandono do estabelecimento, com o enterramento de dois vasos emborcados sob o chão da habitação explorada, e a deposição de uma pequena taça, nas mesmas circunstâncias, junto à parede da mesma, do lado externo.

Bilateral Uveal Pigmented Alterations With Remarkable Evolution: Long Term Follow-Up in a Case of Possible Bilateral Diffuse Uveal Melanocytic Proliferation

Purpose: to describe a case of probable bilateral diffuse uveal melanocytic proliferation (BDUMP) with scleral involvement, free from systemic malignancies and cataract. Methods: fifty months of follow up with recurrent complete ophthalmological examinations, including fundus photography, fluorescein/indocyanine green angiography (FA) and optical coherence tomography (OCT). Investigations also included an electroretinography (ERG) and histological examination of scleral biopsy. Extraocular malignancies were repeatedly searched. Results: the patient was a 61 year-old Italian man with chronic hepatitis type C. At first visit his best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was 20/32 in OS and 20/25 in OD. Funduscopy showed multiple patch-shaped pigmented alterations involving macular region and mid retinal periphery. FA showed corresponding areas of late-phase hyperfluorescent pinpoints (figure 1a, OS) and intemediate-phase hypocyanescence (figure 1b, OS), with subtle serous neurosensory retinal detachment confirmed by OCT. Photopic and scotopic ERG tested normal. Systemic prednisone was administered for one month without any improvement. After ten months round pigmentary lesions appeared also in superior scleral surface of both eyes. Biopsy allowed to disclose slightly pigmented spindle cells. BCVA worsened for further 10 months, with enlargement of FA alteration areas but lenses still clear. After 30 months spontaneous coalescence and atrophy of retinal lesions started, paralleled by progressive visual recovery. At the end of our follow up BCVA was 20/25 in OU while scleral pigmentary lesions remained unchanged. Conclusions: we report the case of a patient with main features of BDUMP and some unusual findings. Although not all classical diagnostic criteria were fulfilled, the presence of scleral pigmented lesions and spontaneous visual recovery may enlarge clinical spectrum of the disease.

Sobrevivência de pupas de Lucilia eximia (Wiedemann) (Diptera, Calliphoridae) após submersão em laboratório

Entre Maio e Junho de 2008 foi observado a sobrevivência das pupas de Lucilia eximia (Diptera, Calliphoridae) após submersão em laboratório. Para este experimento foram utilizadas 480 pupas de mesma idade, sendo estas divididas em oito grupos: o controle não foi submerso e os demais grupos foram submersos de um a sete dias. O aumento do período de submersão diminui a sobrevivência, com um dia de submersão a sobrevivência é de 80%, com dois dias 40%, é de 30% a partir do terceiro dia, no quarto dia cai para 23,34% e no quinto dia fica em 10%. Após este período a mortalidade sobe para 100%. Este padrão pode ser explicado pela curva "U-shaped" que ocorre no consumo de O2 durante o período pupal, onde o consumo é maior no início e no final do período pupal. O tempo de submersão também afeta o tempo de desenvolvimento, aumentando o período pupal. Estes dados têm o potencial para serem utilizados em investigações envolvendo Entomologia Forense, para a estimativa do tempo de submersão de um cadáver.

Role of the NALP3 Inflammasome in the Development of Two-Kidney, One Clip Hypertension in Mice

Objective: The NALP3 inflammasome functions as a sensor of danger signals and triggers processing and release of IL-1b. Mutations of NALP3 are responsible for the cryopyrin associated periodic syndromes, a group of autoinflammatory disorders that respond to IL1 inhibition. Genetic studies have also linked NALP3 to hypertension in man, but the mechanism is not understood. The aim of this study is to investigate the role of NAPL3 inflammasome in the development of hypertension in an animal model. Design and Method: Six-week old male WT and NALP3 KO mice were used for generating a two-kidney, one clip (2K1C) renovascular hypertension. A U-shaped stainless steel clip (O^ ¼0.12mm) was placed on left renal artery under anaesthesia. The same surgery without clipping was performed in sham mice. At week 6 and 12 after the clipping, intra-arterial blood pressure (BP) was measured in conscious mice. Blood was collected for plasma renin analysis. Heart and kidney were excised and stored for molecular and morphological examinations. n¼5-6 mice per group. Data are mean_SEM. Results: Mean BP was significantly increased at week 6 and 12 in WT-2K1C mice compared to WT-sham group (MBPweek6: 138_2 vs.124_3 mmHg, p<0.01 and MBPweek12: 141_5 vs.122_3 mmHg, p<0.01) followed with an significant increase in heart weight (HW) and a decrease in clipped kidney weight indices in WT-2K1C mice compared to the WT-sham (HW/ BWweek6: 4.65_0.04 vs. 3.99_0.12 mg/g, p<0.001 and HW/BWweek12: 4.94_0.15 vs. 4.22_0.12 mg/g, p<0.001). Interestingly, NALP3 KO-2K1C mice did not develop hypertension. The MBP of KO-2K1C mice was comparable to the KO-sham (MBPweek6: 122_3 vs. 119_3 mmHg, p>0.05 and MBPweek6: 128_5 vs.122_4 mmHg, p>0.05). There was also no significant change in heart and kidney weight indices between KO- 2K1C and KO-sham mice. Conclusion: The preliminary results suggest that absence of NALP3 protects mice from the development of renin-dependent hypertension. Further molecular and morphological examinations are ongoing for the confirmation and mechanism explanation.

Diffusion with delayed informational spillovers

I study the relation between the delay in the transmission of spilloversof information and diffusion. When a firm enters or innovates it benefitsfrom the information it gets by observing past entry. Delays in the processof receiving the information reduce the benefits of the spillover and affectthe entry process.I derive the effects this delay has on diffusion, on the dynamics of priceand cost of entry, and on efficiency. I explain why, when spillovers ofinformation are delayed, a zero profit condition requires an initial set ofentrants bigger than zero. I also illustrate how an S-shaped diffusion curvecan be generated. I show that competitive equilibrium entails a slowergeneration of information relative to the social optimum and how a socialplanner can improve efficiency.

The political economy of employment protection

This paper develops a model of job creation and job destruction in agrowing economy with embodied technical progress, that we use toanalyze the political support for employment protection legislationssuch as the ones that are observed in most European countries.We analyze the possibility of Condorcet cycles due to the fact thatworkers about to become unemployed prefer both an increase and areduction in firing costs over the status quo. Despite this problem, we show the existence of local, and sometimes global majority winners.In voting in favour of employment protection, incumbent employeestrade off lower living standards (because employment protectionmaintains workers in less productive activities) against longer job duration. We show that the gains from, and consequently the politicalsupport for employment protection (as defined by maximunjob tenure) are larger, the lower the rate of creative destruction and the largerthe worker's bargaining power. Numerical simulations suggest a hump-shaped response of firing costs to these variables, as well as negative impact of exogeneous turnover on employment protection.

Tectonics of the Simplon massif and Lepontine gneiss dome: deformation structures due to collision between the underthrusting European plate and the Adriatic indenter

this study presents a review of published geological data, combined with original observations on the tectonics of the simplon massif and the Lepontine gneiss dome in the Western Alps. New observations concern the geometry of the Oligocene Vanzone back fold, formed under amphibolite facies conditions, and of its root between Domodossola and Locarno, which is cut at an acute angle by the Miocene, epi- to anchizonal, dextral centovalli strike-slip fault. the structures of the simplon massif result from collision over 50 Ma between two plate boundaries with a different geometry: the underthrusted European plate and the Adriatic indenter. Detailed mapping and analysis of a complex structural interference pattern, combined with observations on the metamorphic grade of the superimposed structures and radiometric data, allow a kinematic model to be developed for this zone of oblique continental collision. the following main Alpine tectonic phases and structures may be distinguished: 1. NW-directed nappe emplacement, starting in the Early Eocene (similar to 50 Ma); 2. W, SW and S- verging transverse folds; 3. transpressional movements on the dextral simplon ductile shear zone since similar to 32 Ma; 4. formation of the Bergell - Vanzone backfolds and of the southern steep belt during the Oligocene, emplacement of the mantle derived 31 - 29 Ma Bergell and Biella granodiorites and porphyritic andesites as well as intrusions of 29-25 Ma crustal aplites and pegmatites; 5. formation of the dextral discrete Rhone-Simplon line and the centovalli line during the Miocene, accompanied by the pull-apart development of the Lepontine gneiss dome - Dent blanche (Valpelline) depression. It is suggested that movements of shortening in fan shaped NW, W and sW directions accompanied the more regular NW- to WNW-directed displacement of the Adriatic indenter during continental collision.

A new species of Sycorax Curtis, 1839 from Atlantic Forest in southeastern Brazil

A new species of Sycorax Curtis, 1839 (Diptera, Psychodidae) from the Atlantic Forest in southeastern Brazil. Sycorax bravoi Santos, Ferreira & Falqueto sp. nov. is described and illustrated based on samples collected with a Möricke trap installed on the ground at the Biological Station of Santa Lúcia, municipality of Santa Teresa, in the Brazilian state of Espírito Santo. Males have a paramere with a spiniform prolongation on the distal surface and an aedeagus with a long posterior membranous dorsal prolongation. Females have a racket-shaped genital furca and tubular spermatheca, tapered on the apical third. This finding raises the number of Sycorax species known from Brazil to seven.