Genetic analysis of complex demographic scenarios: Spatially expanding populations of the cane toad, Bufo marinus

Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.

Assessment of the consistency of H2O line intensities over the near-infrared using sun-pointing ground-based Fourier transform spectroscopy

We report on the consistency of water vapour line intensities in selected spectral regions between 800–12,000 cm−1 under atmospheric conditions using sun-pointing Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. Measurements were made across a number of days at both a low and high altitude field site, sampling a relatively moist and relatively dry atmosphere. Our data suggests that across most of the 800–12,000 cm−1 spectral region water vapour line intensities in recent spectral line databases are generally consistent with what was observed. However, we find that HITRAN-2008 water vapour line intensities are systematically lower by up to 20% in the 8000–9200 cm−1 spectral interval relative to other spectral regions. This discrepancy is essentially removed when two new linelists (UCL08, a compilation of linelists and ab-initio calculations, and one based on recent laboratory measurements by Oudot et al. (2010) [10] in the 8000–9200 cm−1 spectral region) are used. This strongly suggests that the H2O line strengths in the HITRAN-2008 database are indeed underestimated in this spectral region and in need of revision. The calculated global-mean clear-sky absorption of solar radiation is increased by about 0.3 W m−2 when using either the UCL08 or Oudot line parameters in the 8000–9200 cm−1 region, instead of HITRAN-2008. We also found that the effect of isotopic fractionation of HDO is evident in the 2500–2900 cm−1 region in the observations.

Assessing bee species richness in two Mediterranean communities: importance of habitat type and sampling techniques

The decline of bees has raised concerns regarding their conservation and the maintenance of ecosystem services they provide to bee-pollinated wild flowers and crops. Although the Mediterranean region is a hotspot for bee species richness, their status remains poorly studied. There is an urgent need for cost-effective, reliable, and unbiased sampling methods that give good bee species richness estimates. This study aims: (a) to assess bee species richness in two common Mediterranean habitat types: semi-natural scrub (phrygana) and managed olive groves; (b) to compare species richness in those systems to that of other biogeographic regions, and (c) to assess whether six different sampling methods (pan traps, variable and standardized transect walks, observation plots and trap nests), previously tested in other European biogeographic regions, are suitable in Mediterranean communities. Eight study sites, four per habitat type, were selected on the island of Lesvos, Greece. The species richness observed was high compared to other habitat types worldwide for which comparable data exist. Pan traps collected the highest proportion of the total bee species richness across all methods at the scale of a study site. Variable and standardized transect walks detected the highest total richness over all eight study sites. Trap nests and observation plots detected only a limited fraction of the bee species richness. To assess the total bee species richness in bee diversity hotspots, such as the studied habitats, we suggest a combination of transect walks conducted by trained bee collectors and pan trap sampling

Developing new components for variable flow distribution system modelling in TRNSYS

This study attempts to fill the existing gap in the simulation of variable flow distribution systems through developing new pressure governing components. These components are able to capture the actual ever-changing system performance curve in variable flow distribution systems together with the prediction of controversial issues such as starving, over-flow and the lack of controllability on the flow rate of different branches in a hydronic system. The performance of the proposed components is verified using a case study under design and off-design circumstances. Full integration of the new components within the TRNSYS simulation package is another advantage of this study, which makes it more applicable for designers in both the design and commissioning of hydronic systems.

The variable link between PNA and NAO in observations and in multi-century CGCM simulations

The link between the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated in reanalysis data (NCEP, ERA40) and multi-century CGCM runs for present day climate using three versions of the ECHAM model. PNA and NAO patterns and indices are determined via rotated principal component analysis on monthly mean 500 hPa geopotential height fields using the varimax criteria. On average, the multi-century CGCM simulations show a significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO. Further, multi-decadal periods with significantly enhanced (high anti-correlation, active phase) or weakened (low correlations, inactive phase) coupling are found in all CGCMs. In the simulated active phases, the storm track activity near Newfoundland has a stronger link with the PNA variability than during the inactive phases. On average, the reanalysis datasets show no significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO indices, but during the sub-period 1973–1994 a significant anti-correlation is detected, suggesting that the present climate could correspond to an inactive period as detected in the CGCMs. An analysis of possible physical mechanisms suggests that the link between the patterns is established by the baroclinic waves forming the North Atlantic storm track. The geopotential height anomalies associated with negative PNA phases induce an increased advection of warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and cold air from Canada. Both types of advection contribute to increase baroclinicity over eastern North America and also to increase the low level latent heat content of the warm air masses. Thus, growth conditions for eddies at the entrance of the North Atlantic storm track are enhanced. Considering the average temporal development during winter for the CGCM, results show an enhanced Newfoundland storm track maximum in the early winter for negative PNA, followed by a downstream enhancement of the Atlantic storm track in the subsequent months. In active (passive) phases, this seasonal development is enhanced (suppressed). As the storm track over the central and eastern Atlantic is closely related to the NAO variability, this development can be explained by the shift of the NAO index to more positive values.

Further evidence for variable synchrotron emission in XTE J1118+480 in outburst

We present simultaneous multicolor infrared and optical photometry of the black hole X-ray transient XTE J1118+480 during its short 2005 January outburst, supported by simultaneous X-ray observations. The variability is dominated by short timescales, ~10 s, although a weak superhump also appears to be present in the optical. The optical rapid variations, at least, are well correlated with those in X-rays. Infrared JHKs photometry, as in the previous outburst, exhibits especially large-amplitude variability. The spectral energy distribution (SED) of the variable infrared component can be fitted with a power law of slope α=-0.78+/-0.07, where F_ν~ν^α. There is no compelling evidence for evolution in the slope over five nights, during which time the source brightness decayed along almost the same track as seen in variations within the nights. We conclude that both short-term variability and longer timescale fading are dominated by a single component of constant spectral shape. We cannot fit the SED of the IR variability with a credible thermal component, either optically thick or thin. This IR SED is, however, approximately consistent with optically thin synchrotron emission from a jet. These observations therefore provide indirect evidence to support jet-dominated models for XTE J1118+480 and also provide a direct measurement of the slope of the optically thin emission, which is impossible, based on the average spectral energy distribution alone.

Observing crosswind over urban terrain using scintillometer and Doppler lidar

In this study, the crosswind (wind component perpendicular to a path, U⊥) is measured by a scintillometer and estimated with Doppler lidar above the urban environment of Helsinki, Finland, for 15 days. The scintillometer allows acquisition of a path-averaged value of U⊥ (U⊥), while the lidar allows acquisition of path-resolved U⊥ (U⊥ (x), where x is the position along the path). The goal of this study is to evaluate the performance of scintillometer U⊥ estimates for conditions under which U⊥ (x) is variable. Two methods are applied to estimate U⊥ from the scintillometer signal: the cumulative-spectrum method (relies on scintillation spectra) and the look-up-table method (relies on time-lagged correlation functions). The values of U⊥ of both methods compare well with the lidar estimates, with root-mean-square deviations of 0.71 and 0.73 m s−1. This indicates that, given the data treatment applied in this study, both measurement technologies are able to obtain estimates of U⊥ in the complex urban environment. The detailed investigation of four cases indicates that the cumulative-spectrum method is less susceptible to a variable U⊥ (x) than the look-up-table method. However, the look-up-table method can be adjusted to improve its capabilities for estimating U⊥ under conditions under for which U⊥ (x) is variable.

The potential of flood forecasting using a variable-resolution global Digital Terrain Model and flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images

A basic data requirement of a river flood inundation model is a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) of the reach being studied. The scale at which modeling is required determines the accuracy required of the DTM. For modeling floods in urban areas, a high resolution DTM such as that produced by airborne LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) is most useful, and large parts of many developed countries have now been mapped using LiDAR. In remoter areas, it is possible to model flooding on a larger scale using a lower resolution DTM, and in the near future the DTM of choice is likely to be that derived from the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM). A variable-resolution global DTM obtained by combining existing high and low resolution data sets would be useful for modeling flood water dynamics globally, at high resolution wherever possible and at lower resolution over larger rivers in remote areas. A further important data resource used in flood modeling is the flood extent, commonly derived from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. Flood extents become more useful if they are intersected with the DTM, when water level observations (WLOs) at the flood boundary can be estimated at various points along the river reach. To illustrate the utility of such a global DTM, two examples of recent research involving WLOs at opposite ends of the spatial scale are discussed. The first requires high resolution spatial data, and involves the assimilation of WLOs from a real sequence of high resolution SAR images into a flood model to update the model state with observations over time, and to estimate river discharge and model parameters, including river bathymetry and friction. The results indicate the feasibility of such an Earth Observation-based flood forecasting system. The second example is at a larger scale, and uses SAR-derived WLOs to improve the lower-resolution TanDEM-X DEM in the area covered by the flood extents. The resulting reduction in random height error is significant.

The partial oxidation of methane over Pd/Al2O3 catalyst nanoparticles studied in-situ by near ambient-pressure x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy

Near ambient-pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (NAP-XPS) is used to study the chemical state of methane oxidation catalysts in-situ. Al2O3{supported Pd catalysts are prepared with different particle sizes ranging from 4 nm to 10 nm. These catalysts were exposed to conditions similar to those used in the partial oxidation of methane (POM) to syn-gas and simultaneously monitored by NAP-XPS and mass spectrometry. NAP-XPS data show changes in the oxidation state of the palladium as the temperature in- creases, from metallic Pd0 to PdO, and back to Pd0. Mass spectrometry shows an increase in CO production whilst the Pd is in the oxide phase, and the metal is reduced back under presence of newly formed H2. A particle size effect is observed, such that CH4 conversion starts at lower temperatures with larger sized particles from 6 nm to 10 nm. We find that all nanoparticles begin CH4 conversion at lower temperatures than polycrystalline Pd foil.

Differentiation in populations of the apple scab fungus Venturia inaequalis on cultivars in a mixed orchard remains over time

The ascomycete Venturia inaequalis causes annual epidemics of apple scab worldwide. Scab development is reduced in mixed cultivar orchards compared with monocultures. To use mixtures in commercial production, we need to understand how the population of scab changes in a mixed orchard and how likely a super race, with virulence factors overcoming multiple resistance factors in the mixed orchard, is to emerge and become dominant. We used short sequence repeat (SSR) markers to investigate the temporal change of scab populations in two mixed cultivar orchards in the UK to infer the likelihood of emergence of a scab super race. There were no significant differences between the populations at the two sampling times (six or seven years apart) in either of the two mixed orchards. In one of the orchards apple scab populations on different cultivars were significantly different and the differences did not diminish over time. These results suggest that it is not inevitable that a super race of V. inaequalis will become dominant during the lifetime of a commercial apple orchard.

Oriented Percolation in One-dimensional 1/vertical bar x-y vertical bar(2) Percolation Models

We consider independent edge percolation models on Z, with edge occupation probabilities. We prove that oriented percolation occurs when beta > 1 provided p is chosen sufficiently close to 1, answering a question posed in Newman and Schulman (Commun. Math. Phys. 104: 547, 1986). The proof is based on multi-scale analysis.

Feasibility of using in situ fusion for the determination of Co, Cr and Mn in Portland cement by direct solid sampling graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry

In situ fusion on the boat-type graphite platform has been used as a sample pretreatment for the direct determination of Co, Cr and Mn in Portland cement by solid sampling graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry (SS-GF AAS). The 3-field Zeeman technique was adopted for background correction to decrease the sensitivity during measurements. This strategy allowed working with up to 200 mu g of sample. The in situ fusion was accomplished using 10 mu L of a flux mixture 4.0% m/v Na(2)CO(3) + 4.0% m/v ZnO + 0.1% m/v Triton (R) X-100 added over the cement sample and heated at 800 degrees C for 20 s. The resulting mould was completely dissolved with 10 mu L of 0.1% m/v HNO(3). Limits of detection were 0.11 mu g g(-1) for Co, 1.1 mu g g(-1) for Cr and 1.9 mu g g(-1) for Mn. The accuracy of the proposed method has been evaluated by the analysis of certified reference materials. The values found presented no statistically significant differences compared to the certified values (Student`s t-test, p<0.05). In general, the relative standard deviation was lower than 12% (n = 5). (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Study of Water-Gas-Shift Reaction over La((1-y))Sr(y)Ni(x)Co((1-x))O(3) Perovskite as Precursors

The performance of La((1-y))Sr(y)Ni(x)Co((1-x))O(3) perovskites for the water gas shift reaction (WGSR) was investigated. The samples were prepared by the co- precipitation method and were performed by the BET method, XRD, TPR, and XPS. The catalytic tests were performed at 300 and 400 A degrees C and H(2)O(v)/CO = 2.3/1 (molar ratio). The sample with the highest surface area is La(0.70)Sr(0.30)NiO(3). The XRD results showed the formation of perovskite structure for all samples, and the La(0.70)Sr(0.30)NiO(3) sample also presented peaks corresponding to La(2)NiO(4) and NiO, indicating that the solubility limit of Sr in the perovskite lattice was surpassed. The replacement of Co by Ni favored the reduction of the species at lower temperatures, and the sample containing Sr presented the highest amount of reducible species, as identified by TPR results. All samples were active, the Sr containing perovskite appearing the most active due to the highest surface area, presence of the La(2)NiO(4) phase, and higher content of Cu in the surface, as detected by XPS. Among the samples containing Co, the most active one was that with x = 0.70 (60% of CO conversion).