Prediction interval estimation for electricity price and demand using support vector machines

Uncertainty is known to be a concomitant factor of almost all the real world commodities such as oil prices, stock prices, sales and demand of products. As a consequence, forecasting problems are becoming more and more challenging and ridden with uncertainty. Such uncertainties are generally quantified by statistical tools such as prediction intervals (Pis). Pis quantify the uncertainty related to forecasts by estimating the ranges of the targeted quantities. Pis generated by traditional neural network based approaches are limited by high computational burden and impractical assumptions about the distribution of the data. A novel technique for constructing high quality Pis using support vector machines (SVMs) is being proposed in this paper. The proposed technique directly estimates the upper and lower bounds of the PI in a short time and without any assumptions about the data distribution. The SVM parameters are tuned using particle swarm optimization technique by minimization of a modified Pi-based objective function. Electricity price and demand data of the Ontario electricity market is used to validate the performance of the proposed technique. Several case studies for different months indicate the superior performance of the proposed method in terms of high quality PI generation and shorter computational times.

The Use of Videos and Classroom Artefacts in Professional Development of Teachers and Teacher Educators in Indonesia

This study is grounded on adaptations of Realistic Mathematics Education, Lesson Study and design-based research in Indonesian classroom contexts. Design-based research has gained currency in educational research over the past decade due to its strength to bridge the divide between theoretical research and educational practice in naturalistic settings. Design-based approaches involve a process of designing mathematical tasks, observing the enacted design in classrooms and reflecting on the process from analysing the classroom artefacts. Video plays a central role in supporting teachers and teacher educators to study and reflect on students’ mathematical thinking and in capturing the dynamic of classroom teaching and learning process. This chapter will examine and analyse practitioners’ lenses in capturing the dynamic and complexity of classroom mathematical learning using video vignettes and classroom artefacts including digital photos of classroom moments and students’ work. Practitioners’ lenses are taken as a window to capture key teaching and learning moments from the lessons. Analysis of this selection of these video vignettes along with other classroom artefacts based on practitioners’lenses provides insights into practitioners’ views on key teaching and learning moments in mathematics lessons.

Building a digital library : what to expect as a technology project manager on a library construction project

The Taylor Family Digital Library is the central library opened in 2011 at the University of Calgary dedicated to supporting digital scholarship, creativity, analysis and a supportive learning environment for students. The new building is a technologically advanced converged cultural institution, with mandates to continually evolve in order to meet the needs of students and researchers. The infrastructure to support these mandates required research, collaboration and intense planning, resulting in new construction and technology standards for library renovation and construction projects. This pragmatic article is written for those who will follow in similar footsteps; it provides a roadmap for those embarking on the construction of a new technologically advanced library building.

Strategies for Using the Safe Schools Hub: A ‘One-stop Resource Shop’ for Developing Safe and Supportive School Cultures

The Safe Schools Hub is an online portal created by the Australian Government to support the National Safe Schools Framework. It includes extensive resources for leaders, teachers, specialist staff, parents and students. This presentation will highlight a variety of practical strategies based on these resources that schools can use as they continue to develop safe and supportive school cultures. In particular there will be a focus on resource-based approaches that can assist leaders with data collection and change processes, specific resources that can be incorporated into professional development seminars for staff and resources to direct and support strategies for parent education sessions.

The feasibility of implementing cross-curricular studies of Asia

The prioritising and mandating of cross-curricular studies of Asia in the Australian curriculum reflects public policy promoting the benefits of a citizenry able to engage in intercultural relationships with people living in and with links to Asian countries. However, widespread school-based implementation of this substantial mandate requires the addressing of several impediments. Firstly, teachers perceive themselves to be unprepared to respond to the mandate to incorporate teaching of Asia-related studies; and secondly, cross-curricular pedagogies are under-theorised, with a proliferation of forms, nomenclature and interpretations evident. Far from being singular, easily understood and widely accepted, cross-curricula approaches can be mapped as a continuum of possible pedagogies; from teachers remaining within their disciplinary areas to fully integrated, whole school, inquiry based approaches that cut across subject silos. Clarity about these pedagogies and their contextual affordances and teacher confidence in engaging students in studies of Asia are required for the profession to respond positively. This chapter explores theoretical literature on cross-curricular teaching approaches; analyses teacher perceptions of their preparedness and capacities for teaching studies of Asia; and investigates an exemplary teacher’s implementation of studies of Asia in light of theorisations of cross curricularity.

Strengthening of accountability systems to create healthy food environments and reduce global obesity

To achieve WHO's target to halt the rise in obesity and diabetes, dramatic actions are needed to improve the healthiness of food environments. Substantial debate surrounds who is responsible for delivering effective actions and what, specifically, these actions should entail. Arguments are often reduced to a debate between individual and collective responsibilities, and between hard regulatory or fiscal interventions and soft voluntary, education-based approaches. Genuine progress lies beyond the impasse of these entrenched dichotomies. We argue for a strengthening of accountability systems across all actors to substantially improve performance on obesity reduction. In view of the industry opposition and government reluctance to regulate for healthier food environments, quasiregulatory approaches might achieve progress. A four step accountability framework (take the account, share the account, hold to account, and respond to the account) is proposed. The framework identifies multiple levers for change, including quasiregulatory and other approaches that involve government-specified and government-monitored progress of private sector performance, government procurement mechanisms, improved transparency, monitoring of actions, and management of conflicts of interest. Strengthened accountability systems would support government leadership and stewardship, constrain the influence of private sector actors with major conflicts of interest on public policy development, and reinforce the engagement of civil society in creating demand for healthy food environments and in monitoring progress towards obesity action objectives.

Sensor placement and measurement of wind for water quality studies in urban reservoirs

We study the water quality in an urban district, where the surface wind distribution is an essential input but undergoes high spatial and temporal variations due to the impact of surrounding buildings. In this work, we develop an optimal sensor placement scheme to measure the wind distribution over a large urban reservoir using a limited number of wind sensors. Unlike existing solutions that assume Gaussian process of target phenomena, this study measures the wind that inherently exhibits strong non-Gaussian yearly distribution. By leveraging the local monsoon characteristics of wind, we segment a year into different monsoon seasons that follow a unique distribution respectively. We also use computational fluid dynamics to learn the spatial correlation of wind. The output of sensor placement is a set of the most informative locations to deploy the wind sensors, based on the readings of which we can accurately predict the wind over the entire reservoir in real time. Ten wind sensors are deployed. The in-field measurement results of more than 3 months suggest that the proposed sensor placement and spatial prediction scheme provides accurate wind measurement that outperforms the state-of-the-art Gaussian model based on interpolation-based approaches.

Moving beyond a ‘bums-on-seats’ analysis of progress towards widening participation: reflections on the context, design and evaluation of an Australian government-funded mentoring programme

In 2010 the Australian Government established the Higher Education Participation and Partnerships programme – a funding agenda to promote programmes that respond to the underrepresentation in higher education of people from what is often denoted low socioeconomic status (SES) backgrounds. Many government-funded programmes and projects have since emerged that respond to the problem of low SES underrepresentation, based on partnerships between higher education providers and other organisations. The arguments made in this paper draw on one such project: a mentoring programme implemented from 2011 to 2013 that targeted the aspirations of Year 9 regional secondary students. We discuss data and documentation that provide insights into the conception and design of the mentoring programme, and the strategies used to evaluate it, in order to discuss how funding and policy contexts influences the possible solutions that might be implemented in response to the underrepresentation in higher education of people from low SES backgrounds.

Blocking the maturation of OncomiRNAs using pri-miRNA-17∼92 aptamer in retinoblastoma

The miR-17∼92. or oncomiR-1, cluster encodes oncogenic microRNAs (miRNAs), and it also promotes retinoblastoma (RB) tumor formation. Antagomir and miRNA mimics based approaches are widely tried against oncogenic and tumor suppressive miRNAs. Other methods for targeting cancer related miRNAs are still under development. In the current study, we focused on the pri-miRNA-17∼92 aptamer (pri-apt), which can potentially replace the mix of five antagomirs by one aptamer that function to abrogate the maturation of miR-17, miR-18a, and miR-19b (P<0.05) for targeting RB. We used RB cell lines WERI-Rb1 and Y79 as an in vitro model. Cellular changes upon transfecting the pri-apt led to S-phase arrest in WERI-Rb1 cells and onset of apoptosis in both Y79 and WERI-Rb1 cell lines. There was increased cytotoxicity as measured by lactate dehydrogenase activity in pri-apt treated Y79 cells (P<0.05), and significant inhibition of cell proliferation was observed in both of the cell lines. Thus we showed the antiproliferative property of pri-apt in RB cell lines, which can be readily modified by developing appropriate vectors for the delivery of the aptamer specifically to cancer cells.

Application of species distribution models to explain and predict the distribution, abundance and assemblage structure of nearshore temperate reef fishes

 Aim: The purpose of this study was to create predictive species distribution models (SDMs) for temperate reef-associated fish species densities and fish assemblage diversity and richness to aid in marine conservation and spatial planning. Location: California, USA. Methods: Using generalized additive models, we associated fish species densities and assemblage characteristics with seafloor structure, giant kelp biomass and wave climate and used these associations to predict the distribution and assemblage structure across the study area. We tested the accuracy of these predicted extrapolations using an independent data set. The SDMs were also used to estimate larger scale abundances to compare with other estimates of species abundance (uniform density extrapolation over rocky reef and density extrapolations taking into account variations in geomorphic structure). Results: The SDMs successfully modelled the species-habitat relationships of seven rocky reef-associated fish species and showed that species' densities differed in their relationships with environmental variables. The predictive accuracy of the SDMs ranged from 0.26 to 0.60 (Pearson's r correlation between observed and predicted density values). The SDMs created for the fish assemblage-level variables had higher prediction accuracies with Pearson's r values of 0.61 for diversity and 0.71 for richness. The comparisons of the different methods for extrapolating species densities over a single marine protected area varied greatly in their abundance estimates with the uniform extrapolation (density values extrapolated evenly over the rocky reef) always estimating much greater abundances. The other two methods, which took into account variation in the geomorphic structure of the reef, provided much lower abundance estimates. Main conclusions: Species distribution models that combine geomorphic, oceanographic and biogenic habitat variables can reliably predict spatial patterns of species density and assemblage attributes of temperate reef fishes at spatial scales of 50 m. Thus, SDMs show great promise for informing spatial and ecosystem-based approaches to conservation and fisheries management. © 2015 John Wiley

Detection of dynamic background due to swaying movements from motion features

Dynamically changing background (dynamic background) still presents a great challenge to many motion-based video surveillance systems. In the context of event detection, it is a major source of false alarms. There is a strong need from the security industry either to detect and suppress these false alarms, or dampen the effects of background changes, so as to increase the sensitivity to meaningful events of interest. In this paper, we restrict our focus to one of the most common causes of dynamic background changes: 1) that of swaying tree branches and 2) their shadows under windy conditions. Considering the ultimate goal in a video analytics pipeline, we formulate a new dynamic background detection problem as a signal processing alternative to the previously described but unreliable computer vision-based approaches. Within this new framework, we directly reduce the number of false alarms by testing if the detected events are due to characteristic background motions. In addition, we introduce a new data set suitable for the evaluation of dynamic background detection. It consists of real-world events detected by a commercial surveillance system from two static surveillance cameras. The research question we address is whether dynamic background can be detected reliably and efficiently using simple motion features and in the presence of similar but meaningful events, such as loitering. Inspired by the tree aerodynamics theory, we propose a novel method named local variation persistence (LVP), that captures the key characteristics of swaying motions. The method is posed as a convex optimization problem, whose variable is the local variation. We derive a computationally efficient algorithm for solving the optimization problem, the solution of which is then used to form a powerful detection statistic. On our newly collected data set, we demonstrate that the proposed LVP achieves excellent detection results and outperforms the best alternative adapted from existing art in the dynamic background literature.

A criação de um ambiente regulatório no Brasil: mecanismos de controle social e o processo de institucionalização das agências reguladoras federais

Mudanças recentes no ambiente regulatório brasileiro demandam a criação de um novo contexto institucional que permita uma melhor articulação na relação entre Estado e sociedade, em especial no que se refere aos mecanismos de controle social. A nova experiência baseada na criação de “agências reguladoras” no Brasil evidencia as deficiências de sua lógica. O trabalho apresentado, a partir de revisões da teoria institucional e da regulação, examina o surgimento e funcionamento do atual quadro regulatório brasileiro, e constrói um modelo que considera a inter-relação entre as dinâmicas institucionais das esferas social e política e, conseqüentemente, em uma real participação pública no processo de regulação.

Law and narrative: a life history interview with a Brazilian jurist

This article discusses some issues in communicating experience, based on a life history interview with 83-year-old Brazilian jurist Evandro Lins e Silva conducted by the Getúlio Vargas Foundation’s oral history program (Centro de Pesquisa e Documentação de História Contemporânea do Brasil, or CPDOC) between August 1994 and January 1995.1The text focuses especially on two images used by the interviewee, which consolidate both the experiences that have been communicated to him and the experience that he himself endeavors to communicate regarding his activities as an attorney and the status of truth within the field of law.

In cash we trust: cash holdings in the brazilian equity fund industry

We study cash allocation ability as a possible explanatory factor that allows equity fund managers to produce high levels of adjusted returns (not explained by the risk factors they are exposed to). In order to do so, we explore the non-indexed Brazilian equity fund industry during the period of January 2006 to February 2015, evaluating cash allocation ability by level and effectiveness of cash deployment using return-based and holding-based approaches to explore a database of monthly invested assets and returns. We found that even though market timing is a rare skill in the industry, the flexibility to hold high levels of cash played a significant role in the result of over performing managers.