Climate Change Policy: The Waxman-Markey Bill

The Waxman-Markey Bill is a comprehensive national climate and energy legislation designed to reduce global warming pollution and transition to a clean energy economy. In order to accomplish the first goal, the bill introduces a cap-and-trade program.

Carbon and nitrogen stock and fluxes in coastal Atlantic Forest of southeast Brazil: potential impacts of climate change on biogeochemical functioning

The Atlantic Forest is one of the most important biomes of Brazil. Originally covering approximately 1.5 million of km(2), today this area has been reduced to 12% of its original size. Climate changes may alter the structure and the functioning of this tropical forest. Here we explore how increases in temperature and changes in precipitation distribution could affect dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in coastal Atlantic Forest of the southeast region of Brazil The main conclusion of this article is that the coastal Atlantic Forest has high stocks of carbon and nitrogen above ground, and especially, below ground. An increase in temperature may transform these forests from important carbon sinks to carbon sources by increasing loss of carbon and nitrogen to the atmosphere. However, this conclusion should be viewed with caution because it is based on limited information. Therefore, more studies are urgently needed to enable us to make more accurate predictions.

Groundwater resources in Brazil: a review of possible impacts caused by climate change

Groundwater has a strategic role in times of climate change mainly because aquifers can provide water for long periods, even during very long and severe drought. The reduction and/or changes on the precipitation pattern can diminish the recharge mainly in unconfined aquifer, causing available groundwater restriction. The expected impact of long-term climate changes on the Brazilian aquifers for 2050 will lead to a severe reduction in 70% of recharge in the Northeast region aquifers (comparing to 2010 values), varying from 30% to 70% in the North region. Data referring to the South and Southeast regions are more favorable, with an increase in the relative recharge values from 30% to 100%. Another expected impact is the increase in demand and the decrease in the surface water availability that will make the population turn to aquifers as its main source of water for public or private uses in many regions of the country. Thus, an integrated use of surface and groundwater must therefore be considered in the water use planning. The solution of water scarcity is based on three factors: society growth awareness, better knowledge on the characteristics of hydraulic and chemical aquifers and effective management actions.

Evaluation of impacts of climate change and local stressors on the biotechnological potential of marine macroalgae: a brief theoretical discussion of likely scenarios

Climate change can be associated with variations in the frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures and precipitation events on the local and regional scales. Along coastal areas, flooding associated with increased occupation has seriously impacted products and services generated by marine life, in particular the biotechnological potential that macroalgae hold. Therefore, this paper analyzes the available information on the taxonomy, ecology and physiology of macroalgae and discusses the impacts of climate change and local stress on the biotechnological potential of Brazilian macroalgae. Based on data compiled from a series of floristic and ecological works, we note the disappearance in some Brazilian regions of major groups of biotechnological interest. In some cases, the introduction of exotic species has been documented, as well as expansion of the distribution range of economically important species. We also verify an increase in the similarities between the Brazilian phycogeographic provinces, although they still remain different. It is possible that these changes have resulted from the warming of South Atlantic water, as observed for its surface in southeastern Brazilian, mainly during the winter. However, unplanned urbanization of coastal areas can also produce similar biodiversity losses, which requires efforts to generate long-term temporal data on the composition, community structure and physiology of macroalgae.

Climate Change and "historical responsibilities"

The historical responsibility of countries listed in the Annex I of the Convention on Climate Change has been used extensively as a justification for the lack of action of countries not included in Annex I to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. We analyzed the contribution of non-Annex I countries to the CO2 emissions in the period 1850 - 2006 to assess their relative contribution to total CO2 emissions. In the period 1980 - 2006 non-Annex I countries represented 44% of the total but this contribution increased in the period 1990 - 2006 to 48%. If we extrapolate present trends to 2020 they will represent 56% in the period 1990 - 2020. The "historical responsibility" of Annex I countries is therefore decreasing. If we take 1990 as the starting year in which the Climate Convention recognized clearly that greenhouse gases are interfering dangerously with the climate system, it becomes very difficult to attribute "blame" and "guilt" to Annex I for their historical contributions. It becomes also quite clear the need of non-Annex I countries to engage with Annex I countries in the effort to reduce emissions. The Copenhagen Accord has no mention of "historical responsibilities".

Will invasive macroalgae benefit from climate change?

Laboratory of Coastal Biodiversity, CIMAR-Centro Interdisciplinar de Investigação Marinha e Ambiental, Porto, Portugal

Petroleum development and climate change: Risks of being a host country

Grabación realizada por Ciencia compartida (Biblioteca Universitaria)

Petroleum development and climate change: Risks of being a host country

[EN]A petroleum expert’s view on risks and benefits of oil exploration today in Canarias, considering the climate change facts. The talk starts with an overview of the total petroleum development process, from exploration to post-abandonment, indicating some important risks and benefits for each, from a petroleum industry and a personal perspective. Then there is a part of the talk about the agreed facts of climate change, and what this means for us all. The end of the talk brings together these two sections in a summary.

Laboratory verification of predicted permanent deformation in asphalt materials following climate change.

In the past a change in temperature of 5°C most often occurred over intervals of thousands of years. According to estimates by the IPCC, in the XXI century is expected an increase in average temperatures in Europe between 1.8 and 4.0°C in the best case caused by emissions of carbon dioxide and other GHG from human activities. As well as on the environment and economic context, global warming will have effects even on road safety. Several studies have already shown how increasing temperature may cause a worsening of some types of road surface damages, especially rutting, a permanent deformation of the road structures consisting in the formation of a longitudinal depression in the wheelpath, mostly due to the rheological behavior of bitumen. This deformation evolves during the hot season because of the heating capacity of the asphalt layers, in fact, the road surface temperature is up to 24°C higher than air. In this thesis, through the use of Wheeltrack test, it was studied the behavior of some types of asphalt concrete mixtures subjected to fatigue testing at different temperatures. The objectives of this study are: to determine the strain variation of different bituminous mixture subjected to fatigue testing at different temperature conditions; to investigate the effect of aggregates, bitumen and mixtures’ characteristics on rutting. Samples were made in the laboratory mostly using an already prepared mixtures, the others preparing the asphalt concrete from the grading curve and bitumen content. The same procedure was performed for each specimen: preparation, compaction using the roller compactor, cooling and heating before the test. The tests were carried out at 40 - 50 - 60°C in order to obtain the evolution of deformation with temperature variation, except some mixtures for which the tests were carried out only at 50°C. In the elaboration of the results were considered testing parameters, component properties and the characteristics of the mixture. Among the testing parameters, temperature was varied for each sample. The mixtures responded to this variation with a different behavior (linear logarithmic and exponential) not directly correlated with the asphalt characteristics; the others parameters as load, passage frequency and test condition were kept constant. According to the results obtained, the main contribution to deformation is due to the type of binder used, it was found that the modified bitumen have a better response than the same mixtures containing traditional bitumen; to the porosity which affects negatively the behavior of the samples and to the homogeneity ceteris paribus. The granulometric composition did not seem to have interfered with the results. Overall has emerged at working temperature, a decisive importance of bitumen composition, than the other characteristics of the mixture, that tends to disappear with heating in favor of increased dependence of rutting resistance from the granulometric composition of the sample considered. In particular it is essential, rather than the mechanical characteristics of the binder, its chemical properties given by the polymeric modification. To confirm some considered results, the maximum bulk density and the air voids content were determined. Tests have been conducted in the laboratories of the Civil Engineering Department at NTNU in Trondheim according to European Standards.

Climate change and the tourism sector: the clean development mechanism, a market instrument under the Kyoto Protocol to achieve multiple objectives

The main objective of this research is to demonstrate that the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), an instrument created under a global international treaty, can achieve multiple objectives beyond those for which it has been established. As such, while being already a powerful tool to contribute to the global fight against climate change, the CDM can also be successful if applied to different sectors not contemplated before. In particular, this research aimed at demonstrating that a wider utilization of the CDM in the tourism sector can represent an innovative way to foster sustainable tourism and generate additional benefits. The CDM was created by Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and represents an innovative tool to reduce greenhouse gases emissions through the implementation of mitigation activities in developing countries which generate certified emission reductions (CERs), each of them equivalent to one ton of CO2 not emitted in the atmosphere. These credits can be used for compliance reasons by industrialized countries in achieving their reduction targets. The logic path of this research begins with an analysis of the scientific evidences of climate change and its impacts on different economic sectors including tourism and it continues with a focus on the linkages between climate and the tourism sector. Then, it analyses the international responses to the issue of climate change and the peculiar activities in the international arena addressing climate change and the tourism sector. The concluding part of the work presents the objectives and achievements of the CDM and its links to the tourism sector by considering case studies of existing projects which demonstrate that the underlying question can be positively answered. New opportunities for the tourism sector are available.

Sedimentary environments and climate change: a case study (late Miocene, central Crete)

In this study, conditions of deposition and stratigraphical architecture of Neogene (Tortonian, 11-6,7Ma) sediments of southern central Crete were analysed. In order to improve resolution of paleoclimatic data, new methods were applied to quantify environmental parameters and to increase the chronostratigraphic resolution in shallow water sediments. A relationship between paleoenvironmental change observed on Crete and global processes was established and a depositional model was developed. Based on a detailed analysis of the distribution of non geniculate coralline red algae, index values for water temperature and water depth were established and tested with the distribution patterns of benthic foraminifera and symbiont-bearing corals. Calcite shelled bivalves were sampled from the Algarve coast (southern Portugal) and central Crete and then 87Sr/86Sr was measured. A high resolution chronostratigraphy was developed based on the correlation between fluctuations in Sr ratios in the measured sections and in a late Miocene global seawater Sr isotope reference curve. Applying this method, a time frame was established to compare paleoenvironmental data from southern central Crete with global information on climate change reflected in oxygen isotope data. The comparison between paleotemperature data based on red algae and global oxygen isotope data showed that the employed index values reflect global change in temperature. Data indicate a warm interval during earliest Tortonian, a second short warm interval between 10 and 9,5Ma, a longer climatic optimum between 9 and 8Ma and an interval of increasing temperatures in the latest Tortonian. The distribution of coral reefs and carpets shows that during the warm intervals, the depositional environment became tropical while temperate climates prevailed during the cold interval. Since relative tectonic movements after initial half-graben formation in the early Tortonian were low in southern central Crete, sedimentary successions strongly respond to global sea-level fluctuation. A characteristic sedimentary succession formed during a 3rd order sea-level cycle: It comprises mixed siliciclastic-limestone deposited during sea-level fall and lowstand, homogenous red algal deposits formed during sea-level rise and coral carpets formed during late rise and highstand. Individual beds in the succession reflect glacioeustatic fluctuations that are most prominent in the mixed siliciclastic-limestone interval. These results confirm the fact that sedimentary successions deposited at the critical threshold between temperate and tropical environments develop characteristic changes in depositional systems and biotic associations that can be used to assemble paleoclimatic datasets.

Influence of habitat and climate change on European bird communities

Die Fragmentierung von Waldgebieten, der Verlust geeigneter Habitate, die Invasion exotischer Arten und globale Klimaveränderung haben auf Artengemeinschaften erhebliche Auswirkungen. Vögel dienen in vielen Fällen als Indikatorarten für Umweltveränderungen und, besonders, für Veränderungen im Zusammenhang mit globaler Erwärmung. In meiner Arbeit habe ich zuerst einen Literaturüberblick über die Auswirkungen globaler Klimaveränderung auf die Verbreitungsgebiete, den Artenreichtum und die Zusammensetzung von Vogelgemeinschaften dargestellt. Zahlreiche Untersuchungen zeigen, daß die Grenzen der Verbreitungsgebiete der meisten Vogelarten mit klimatischen Faktoren korrelieren. Verschiebungen der Verbreitungsgebiete in nördliche Richtung oder in höhere Regionen im Gebirge konnten bereits für viele temperate Vogelarten beobachtet werden. Weiterhin wurde ein zunehmender Artenreichtum besonders in nördlichen Breiten und in höheren Lagen für viele temperate Vogelgemeinschaften vorhergesagt. In trockenen Gebieten ist dagegen mit einer Abnahme des Artenreichtums zu rechnen. Im zweiten Teil meiner Arbeit habe ich untersucht, ob beobachtete Veränderungen in der Zusammensetzung europäischer Vogelgemeinschaften tatsächlich durch aktuelle Klimaveränderungen beeinflußt werden. Das Zugverhalten der Arten war dabei ein Schwerpunkt der Untersuchung, weil zu erwarten war, daß Vogelarten mit verschiedenem Zugverhalten unterschiedlich auf Klimaveränderungen reagieren. Ich habe ein Regressionsmodell genutzt, welches die räumliche Beziehung zwischen dem Anteil von Langstreckenziehern, Kurzstreckenziehern und Standvögeln in europäischen Vogelgemeinschaften und verschiedenen Klimavariablen beschreibt. Für 21 Gebiete in Europa habe ich Daten über beobachtete Veränderungen in der Struktur der Vogelgemeinschaften und isochrone Klimaveränderungen zusammengetragen. Mit Hilfe dieser Klimaveränderungen und dem räumlichen Regressionsmodell konnte ich berechnen, welche Veränderungen in den Vogelgemeinschaften aufgrund der veränderten Klimabedingungen zu erwarten wären und sie mit beobachteten Veränderungen vergleichen. Beobachtete und berechnete Veränderungen korrelierten signifikant miteinander. Die beobachteten Veränderungen konnten nicht durch räumliche Autokorrelationseffekte oder durch alternative Faktoren, wie z.B. Veränderungen in der Landnutzung, erklärt werden. Im dritten Teil der Arbeit untersuchte ich für eine mitteleuropäische Vogelgemeinschaft welchen Einfluß Habitatveränderungen, die Invasion exotischer Arten und die Klimaveränderung auf Veränderungen der Häufigkeit und Verbreitungsgröße der 159 Vogelarten am Bodensee zwischen 1980-1981 und 2000-2002 hatten. Dabei konnte gezeigt werden, daß Veränderungen in der regionalen Abundanz sowohl durch Habitatveränderungen als auch durch Klimavänderungen hervorgerufen wurden. Exotische Arten schienen in dieser Zeit keinen bedeutenden Einfluß zu haben. Besonders bei Agrarlandarten, Arten mit nördlicheren Verbreitungsgebieten und bei Langstreckenziehern konnten signifikante Abnahmen in der Abundanz beobachtet werden. Vor allem die anhaltenden negativen Bestandsveränderungen bei Langstreckenziehern und die in den letzten zehn Jahren aufgetretenen Abnahmen nördlicher verbreiteter Vogelarten deuten darauf hin, daß die Klimaveränderung aktuell als der größte Einfluß für Vögel in Europa angesehen werden muß. Insgesamt zeigen die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit, daß sich der anhaltende Druck auf die Umwelt in erster Linie durch Habitat- und Klimaveränderungen manifestiert.

Role of the stratospheric dynamics in the southern hemisphere long-term climate change

Il raffreddamento stratosferico associato alla riduzione dell’ozono nelle regioni polari induce un rafforzamento dei venti occidentali nella bassa stratosfera, uno spostamento verso il polo e un’intensificazione del jet troposferico delle medie latitudini. Si riscontra una proiezione di questi cambiamenti a lungo termine sulla polarità ad alto indice di un modo di variabilità climatica, il Southern Annular Mode, alla superficie, dove i venti occidentali alle medie latitudini guidano la Corrente Circumpolare Antartica influenzando la circolazione oceanica meridionale e probabilmente l’estensione del ghiaccio marino ed i flussi di carbonio aria-mare nell’Oceano Meridionale. Una limitata rappresentazione dei processi stratosferici nei modelli climatici per la simulazione del passato e la previsione dei cambiamenti climatici futuri, sembrerebbe portare ad un errore nella rappresentazione dei cambiamenti troposferici a lungo termine nelle rispettive simulazioni. In questa tesi viene condotta un’analisi multi-model mettendo insieme i dati di output derivati da diverse simulazioni di modelli climatici accoppiati oceano-atmosfera, che partecipano al progetto CMIP5, con l'obiettivo di comprendere come le diverse rappresentazioni della dinamica stratosferica possano portare ad una differente rappresentazione dei cambiamenti climatici alla superficie. Vengono utilizzati modelli “High Top” (HT), che hanno una buona rappresentazione della dinamica stratosferica, e modelli “Low Top” (LT), che invece non ne hanno. I risultati vengono confrontati con le reanalisi meteorologiche globali disponibili (ERA-40). Viene mostrato come la rappresentazione e l’intensità del raffreddamento radiativo iniziale e di quello dinamico nella bassa stratosfera, nei modelli, siano i fattori chiave che controllano la successiva risposta troposferica, e come il raffreddamento stesso dipenda dalla rappresentazione della dinamica stratosferica. Si cerca inoltre di differenziare i modelli in base alla loro rappresentazione del raffreddamento radiativo e dinamico nella bassa stratosfera e alla risposta del jet troposferico. Nei modelli, si riscontra che il trend del jet nell'intera troposfera è significativamente correlato linearmente al raffreddamento stesso della bassa stratosfera.

New water use efficiency strategies to cope with climate change

Crop water requirements are important elements for food production, especially in arid and semiarid regions. These regions are experience increasing population growth and less water for agriculture, which amplifies the need for more efficient irrigation. Improved water use efficiency is needed to produce more food while conserving water as a limited natural resource. Evaporation (E) from bare soil and Transpiration (T) from plants is considered a critical part of the global water cycle and, in recent decades, climate change could lead to increased E and T. Because energy is required to break hydrogen bonds and vaporize water, water and energy balances are closely connected. The soil water balance is also linked with water vapour losses to evapotranspiration (ET) that are dependent mainly on energy balance at the Earth’s surface. This work addresses the role of evapotranspiration for water use efficiency by developing a mathematical model that improves the accuracy of crop evapotranspiration calculation; accounting for the effects of weather conditions, e.g., wind speed and humidity, on crop coefficients, which relates crop evapotranspiration to reference evapotranspiration. The ability to partition ET into Evaporation and Transpiration components will help irrigation managers to find ways to improve water use efficiency by decreasing the ratio of evaporation to transpiration. The developed crop coefficient model will improve both irrigation scheduling and water resources planning in response to future climate change, which can improve world food production and water use efficiency in agriculture.

Effects of temperature and acidity on Mediterranean benthic calcifiers, in the face of globale climate change

The Mediterranean Sea is expected to react faster to global change compared to the ocean and is already showing more pronounced warming and acidification rates. A study performed along the Italian western coast showed that porosity of the skeleton increases with temperature in the zooxanthellate (i.e. symbiotic with unicellular algae named zooxanthellae) solitary scleractinian Balanophyllia europaea while it does not vary with temperature in the solitary non-zooxanthellate Leptopsammia pruvoti. These results were confirmed by another study that indicated that the increase in porosity was accompanied by an increase of the fraction of the largest pores in the pore-space, perhaps due to an inhibition of the photosynthetic process at elevated temperatures, causing an attenuation of calcification. B. europaea, L. pruvoti and the colonial non-zooxanthellate Astroides calycularis, transplanted along a natural pH gradient, showed that high temperature exacerbated the negative effect of lowered pH on their mortality rates. The growth of the zooxanthellate species did not react to reduced pH, while the growth of the two non-zooxanthellate species was negatively affected. Reduced abundance of naturally occurring B. europaea, a mollusk, a calcifying and a non-calcifying macroalgae were observed along the gradient while no variation was seen in the abundance of a calcifying green alga. With decreasing pH, the mineralogy of the coral and mollusk did not change, while the two calcifying algae decreased the content of aragonite in favor of the less soluble calcium sulphates and whewellite (calcium oxalate), possibly as a mechanism of phenotypic plasticity. Increased values of porosity and macroporosity with CO2 were observed in B. europaea specimens, indicating reduces the resistance of its skeletons to mechanical stresses with increasing acidity. These findings, added to the negative effect of temperature on various biological parameters, generate concern on the sensitivity of this zooxanthellate species to the envisaged global climate change scenarios.