Future trends in cystic fibrosis demography in 34 European countries

Median survival has increased in people with cystic fibrosis (CF) during the past six decades, which has led to an increased number of adults with CF. The future impact of changes in CF demographics has not been evaluated. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of children and adults with CF in 34 European countries by 2025. Data were obtained from the European Cystic Fibrosis Society Patient Registry. Population forecasts were performed for countries that have extensive CF population coverage and at least 4 years of longitudinal data by modelling future entering and exiting flows in registry cohorts. For the other countries, population projections were performed based on assumptions from knowledge of current CF epidemiology. Western European countries' forecasts indicate that an increase in the overall number of CF patients by 2025, by approximately 50%, corresponds to an increase by 20% and by 75% in children and adults, respectively. In Eastern European countries the projections suggest a predominant increase in the CF child population, although the CF adult population would also increase.It was concluded that a large increase in the adult CF population is expected in the next decade. A significant increase in adult CF services throughout Europe is urgently required.

Assessing trends in land use change in the Borana rangeland Ethiopia as one cause of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration variations

Landnutzungsänderungen sind eine wesentliche Ursache von Treibhausgasemissionen. Die Umwandlung von Ökosystemen mit permanenter natürlicher Vegetation hin zu Ackerbau mit zeitweise vegetationslosem Boden (z.B. nach der Bodenbearbeitung vor der Aussaat) führt häufig zu gesteigerten Treibhausgasemissionen und verminderter Kohlenstoffbindung. Weltweit dehnt sich Ackerbau sowohl in kleinbäuerlichen als auch in agro-industriellen Systemen aus, häufig in benachbarte semiaride bis subhumide Rangeland Ökosysteme. Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht Trends der Landnutzungsänderung im Borana Rangeland Südäthiopiens. Bevölkerungswachstum, Landprivatisierung und damit einhergehende Einzäunung, veränderte Landnutzungspolitik und zunehmende Klimavariabilität führen zu raschen Veränderungen der traditionell auf Tierhaltung basierten, pastoralen Systeme. Mittels einer Literaturanalyse von Fallstudien in ostafrikanischen Rangelands wurde im Rahmen dieser Studie ein schematisches Modell der Zusammenhänge von Landnutzung, Treibhausgasemissionen und Kohlenstofffixierung entwickelt. Anhand von Satellitendaten und Daten aus Haushaltsbefragungen wurden Art und Umfang von Landnutzungsänderungen und Vegetationsveränderungen an fünf Untersuchungsstandorten (Darito/Yabelo Distrikt, Soda, Samaro, Haralo, Did Mega/alle Dire Distrikt) zwischen 1985 und 2011 analysiert. In Darito dehnte sich die Ackerbaufläche um 12% aus, überwiegend auf Kosten von Buschland. An den übrigen Standorten blieb die Ackerbaufläche relativ konstant, jedoch nahm Graslandvegetation um zwischen 16 und 28% zu, während Buschland um zwischen 23 und 31% abnahm. Lediglich am Standort Haralo nahm auch „bare land“, vegetationslose Flächen, um 13% zu. Faktoren, die zur Ausdehnung des Ackerbaus führen, wurden am Standort Darito detaillierter untersucht. GPS Daten und anbaugeschichtlichen Daten von 108 Feldern auf 54 Betrieben wurden in einem Geographischen Informationssystem (GIS) mit thematischen Boden-, Niederschlags-, und Hangneigungskarten sowie einem Digitales Höhenmodell überlagert. Multiple lineare Regression ermittelte Hangneigung und geographische Höhe als signifikante Erklärungsvariablen für die Ausdehnung von Ackerbau in niedrigere Lagen. Bodenart, Entfernung zum saisonalen Flusslauf und Niederschlag waren hingegen nicht signifikant. Das niedrige Bestimmtheitsmaß (R²=0,154) weist darauf hin, dass es weitere, hier nicht erfasste Erklärungsvariablen für die Richtung der räumlichen Ausweitung von Ackerland gibt. Streudiagramme zu Ackergröße und Anbaujahren in Relation zu geographischer Höhe zeigen seit dem Jahr 2000 eine Ausdehnung des Ackerbaus in Lagen unter 1620 müNN und eine Zunahme der Schlaggröße (>3ha). Die Analyse der phänologischen Entwicklung von Feldfrüchten im Jahresverlauf in Kombination mit Niederschlagsdaten und normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) Zeitreihendaten dienten dazu, Zeitpunkte besonders hoher (Begrünung vor der Ernte) oder niedriger (nach der Bodenbearbeitung) Pflanzenbiomasse auf Ackerland zu identifizieren, um Ackerland und seine Ausdehnung von anderen Vegetationsformen fernerkundlich unterscheiden zu können. Anhand der NDVI Spektralprofile konnte Ackerland gut Wald, jedoch weniger gut von Gras- und Buschland unterschieden werden. Die geringe Auflösung (250m) der Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI Daten führte zu einem Mixed Pixel Effect, d.h. die Fläche eines Pixels beinhaltete häufig verschiedene Vegetationsformen in unterschiedlichen Anteilen, was deren Unterscheidung beeinträchtigte. Für die Entwicklung eines Echtzeit Monitoring Systems für die Ausdehnung des Ackerbaus wären höher auflösende NDVI Daten (z.B. Multispektralband, Hyperion EO-1 Sensor) notwendig, um kleinräumig eine bessere Differenzierung von Ackerland und natürlicher Rangeland-Vegetation zu erhalten. Die Entwicklung und der Einsatz solcher Methoden als Entscheidungshilfen für Land- und Ressourcennutzungsplanung könnte dazu beitragen, Produktions- und Entwicklungsziele der Borana Landnutzer mit nationalen Anstrengungen zur Eindämmung des Klimawandels durch Steigerung der Kohlenstofffixierung in Rangelands in Einklang zu bringen.

Demographic trends in suicide in the UK and Ireland 1980 - 2010.

Background Ireland has the 17th highest suicide rate in the EU and the 4th highest among 15 to 24-year-old males (WHO 2012). Suicide is the leading cause of death in this age group; death by hanging accounted for 69 % of suicides in 2010. Methods This study examines youth suicide rates from 1980 to 2010 in Ireland and compares them to the rates in Northern Ireland, Scotland, England and Wales. Irish data were obtained from the Central Statistics Office and their annual reports on Vital Statistics. Northern Irish data were obtained from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency website; Scottish data were from the General Register Office for Scotland and English/Welsh data from the Office for National Statistics website. Results There has been a threefold increase in young male suicide in Ireland over the past three decades (8.9 - 29.7 per 100,000). In contrast, there has been approximately a threefold reduction in deaths by road traffic accidents in young men in the same period (42.7 - 16.2 per 100,000). Suicide rates in young men are similar in Scotland and Northern Ireland for the same period but are 50 % lower in England and Wales. Despite the rates of hanging as a method of suicide increasing in all jurisdictions, the overall rate in England and Wales has continued to decline. Conclusion The suicide rate in Ireland remains very high and strategies to address this are urgently required. Our study indicates that national suicide prevention strategies can be effective.

Life expectancy: recent trends in older ages

Over the last 30 years there has been an upward trend in life expectancy at older ages in England. Figures 1 and 2 show life expectancy in England at ages 65, 75, 85 and 95 from 1981 to 2014. The data points shaded red in Figures 1 and 2 indicate where life expectancy in that year was lower than in the previous year, showing that there is some fluctuation in life expectancy at these age groups, although the overall trend has been upwards. Male life expectancy was lower in 2012 than 2011 at ages 85 and 95, and at ages 65 and 75 it was the same in both years. There were no further falls in 2013. This flattening of the recent trend has not continued in 2014, which saw a rise in male life expectancy at all four ages. Male life expectancy increased by 0.3 years at age 65 and 0.2 years at ages 75, 85 and 95. For females, life expectancy at all four ages was lower in 2012 than 2011. At age 65, that was the first fall since 1995 and at age 75 the first fall since 2003. At ages 85 and 95, there have been frequent occasions when life expectancy in a year was lower than in the previous year. Between 2012 and 2013, there were no further falls in life expectancy at any of these ages. Between 2013 and 2014, there was an increase in female life expectancy at all four ages. Female life expectancy increased by 0.3 years at age 65 and by 0.2 years at ages 75, 85 and 95.  

Trends in Primary Angioplasty in Portugal From 2002 to 2013 According to the Portuguese National Registry of Interventional Cardiology

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: The aim of the present paper was to report trends in coronary angioplasty for the treatment of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in Portugal. METHODS: Prospective multicenter data from the Portuguese National Registry of Interventional Cardiology (RNCI) and official data from the Directorate-General for Health (DGS) were studied to analyze percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) procedures for STEMI from 2002 to 2013. RESULTS: In 2013, 3524 primary percutaneous coronary intervention (p-PCI) procedures were performed (25% of all procedures), an increase of 315% in comparison to 2002 (16% of all interventions). Between 2002 and 2013 the rate increased from 106 to 338 p-PCIs per million population per year. Rescue angioplasty decreased from 70.7% in 2002 to 2% in 2013. During this period, the use of drug-eluting stents grew from 9.9% to 69.5%. After 2008, the use of aspiration thrombectomy increased, reaching 46.7% in 2013. Glycoprotein IIb-IIIa inhibitor use decreased from 73.2% in 2002 to 23.6% in the last year of the study. Use of a radial approach increased steadily from 8.3% in 2008 to 54.6% in 2013. CONCLUSION: During the reporting period there was a three-fold increase in primary angioplasty rates per million population. Rescue angioplasty has been overtaken by p-PCI as the predominant procedure since 2006. New trends in the treatment of STEMI were observed, notably the use of drug-eluting stents and radial access as the predominant approach.

A century of trends in adult human height

NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)

Trends in Crime

There appears to be a paradox in crime figures according to two reports issued recently by the Home Office in April 2015. The recent crime figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show a rise in crime in the UK triggered by a rise in violent crime while the figures released by the the Crime Survey of England and Wales (CSEW) (which is based on interviews with members of the public about their experiences of crime) estimated a 7 per cent fall in overall crime to 6.9 million incidents last year. The CSEW, which questions 35,000 people in England and Wales, estimates that crime is now at its lowest level since the study began in 1981.So why have we seen this apparent discrepancy in figures? In reality the ONS figures reflect new reporting practices by the Police and it stated it could no longer approve figures recorded by the police because they were unreliable, prompting major revisions of how each force handles its figures. The renewed focus on the quality of crime recording is thought to have led to improved compliance with national recording standards, leading to proportionally more crimes reported to the police being recorded by them. Improved compliance with recording standards is thought to have particularly affected the way the police recorded crime categories of violence against the person (up 21%) and public order offences (up 14%). These rises were largely off-set by falls in the number of recorded theft offences (down 5%). In contrast to the CSEW, there was a 2% increase in police recorded crime compared with the previous year, with 3.8 million offences recorded in the year ending December 2014 (see Figure 1)

Disappeared Persons and Homicide in El Salvador

During 2012-2013, the homicide rate in El Salvador came down from 69.9 to 42.2 per 100,000 population following a truce between the leaders of the two major gangs, “Mara Salvatrucha” and “Barrio 18”, and government. But despite the apparent successes of the truce, it was speculated that the drop in murders could have been due to the killers simply hid the bodies of their victims. This paper aims at determining whether gangs effectively disappeared their victims to cut down the official counts of murders, or they committed these crimes for other reasons. The results from this study suggest that Salvadoran gangs had been using disappearance as a resource to gain sustained social control among residents of already gang-dominated areas, that together with homicide, disappearance is part of a process of territorial spread and strategic strengthening by which these groups are enhancing their capabilities to interfere in the alliances of Mexican drug trafficking organizations with Central American criminal organizations specializing in the transshipment of drugs and in providing access to local markets to distribute and sell drugs. Our findings show that the risk for disappearance has been large even before the truce was in place and that actually, it continues as such and going through a process of geographic expansion.

Past and recent trends in the exploitation of the great lakes fisheries of Uganda

Uganda's fish production has shown a substantial increase from a level of 61,500 tonnes in 1961 to a total of 214,302 tonnes in 1988. During this period significant changes also occurred in species composition, fishing factors, and patterns of utilisation. This paper briefly summarises the fisheries of Uganda's great lakes and reviews past and present trends in their exploitation, as reflected in available catch and effort data collected through the Fisheries Department statistical reporting system.

Research Trends in Mechanical Engineering 2016: Conference Proceedings

Professor José Joaquim de Almeida Grácio was a man of many talents. His contribution to the development of physical models to predict the mechanical behaviour of materials for long-term applications in the areas of nanotechnology and forming processes was outstanding and of major international significance. He was a leader not only in his research but also at university administration level. Soon after he received his Ph.D. from the University of Coimbra (Portugal) in 1992, he joined the University of Aveiro with the mission of creating the Department of Mechanical Engineering (DEM). (...)

Estimating Population Trends in American Woodcock (Scolopax Minor) Using Population Reconstruction Models

The American woodcock (Scolopax minor) population index in North America has declined 0.9% a year since 1968 prompting managers to identify priority information and management needs for the species (Sauer et al 2008). Managers identified a need for a population model that better informs on the status of American woodcock populations (Case et al. 2010). Population reconstruction techniques use long-term age-at-harvest data and harvest effort to estimate abundances with error estimates. Four new models were successfully developed using survey data (1999 to 2013). The optimal model estimates sex specific harvest probability for adult females at 0.148 (SE = 0.017) and all other age-sex cohorts at 0.082 (SE = 0.008) for the most current year 2013. The model estimated a yearly survival rate of 0.528 (SE = 0.008). Total abundance ranged from 5,206,000 woodcock in 2007 to 6,075,800 woodcock in 1999. This study represents the first population estimates of woodcock populations.