Simulation tools for statistical model comparison: an application to unobserved componenet models versus dynamic regression models

Aplicación de simulación de Monte Carlo y técnicas de Análisis de la Varianza (ANOVA) a la comparación de modelos estocásticos dinámicos para accidentes de tráfico.

Latest developments in data analysis tools for disruption prediction and for the exploration of multimachine operational spaces.

In the last years significant efforts have been devoted to the development of advanced data analysis tools to both predict the occurrence of disruptions and to investigate the operational spaces of devices, with the long term goal of advancing the understanding of the physics of these events and to prepare for ITER. On JET the latest generation of the disruption predictor called APODIS has been deployed in the real time network during the last campaigns with the new metallic wall. Even if it was trained only with discharges with the carbon wall, it has reached very good performance, with both missed alarms and false alarms in the order of a few percent (and strategies to improve the performance have already been identified). Since for the optimisation of the mitigation measures, predicting also the type of disruption is considered to be also very important, a new clustering method, based on the geodesic distance on a probabilistic manifold, has been developed. This technique allows automatic classification of an incoming disruption with a success rate of better than 85%. Various other manifold learning tools, particularly Principal Component Analysis and Self Organised Maps, are also producing very interesting results in the comparative analysis of JET and ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) operational spaces, on the route to developing predictors capable of extrapolating from one device to another.

Applying foresight tools to determine future demand requirements on tourist destinations

Applying foresight tools to determine future demand requirements on tourist destinations

Core physics and safety analysis of Generation-IV Sodium Fast Reactors using existing and newly developed computational tools

El futuro de la energía nuclear de fisión dependerá, entre otros factores, de la capacidad que las nuevas tecnologías demuestren para solventar los principales retos a largo plazo que se plantean. Los principales retos se pueden resumir en los siguientes aspectos: la capacidad de proporcionar una solución final, segura y fiable a los residuos radiactivos; así como dar solución a la limitación de recursos naturales necesarios para alimentar los reactores nucleares; y por último, una mejora robusta en la seguridad de las centrales que en definitiva evite cualquier daño potencial tanto en la población como en el medio ambiente como consecuencia de cualquier escenario imaginable o más allá de lo imaginable. Siguiendo estas motivaciones, la Generación IV de reactores nucleares surge con el compromiso de proporcionar electricidad de forma sostenible, segura, económica y evitando la proliferación de material fisible. Entre los sistemas conceptuales que se consideran para la Gen IV, los reactores rápidos destacan por su capacidad potencial de transmutar actínidos a la vez que permiten una utilización óptima de los recursos naturales. Entre los refrigerantes que se plantean, el sodio parece una de las soluciones más prometedoras. Como consecuencia, esta tesis surgió dentro del marco del proyecto europeo CP-ESFR con el principal objetivo de evaluar la física de núcleo y seguridad de los reactores rápidos refrigerados por sodio, al tiempo que se desarrollaron herramientas apropiadas para dichos análisis. Efectivamente, en una primera parte de la tesis, se abarca el estudio de la física del núcleo de un reactor rápido representativo, incluyendo el análisis detallado de la capacidad de transmutar actínidos minoritarios. Como resultado de dichos análisis, se publicó un artículo en la revista Annals of Nuclear Energy [96]. Por otra parte, a través de un análisis de un hipotético escenario nuclear español, se evalúo la disponibilidad de recursos naturales necesarios en el caso particular de España para alimentar una flota específica de reactores rápidos, siguiendo varios escenarios de demanda, y teniendo en cuenta la capacidad de reproducción de plutonio que tienen estos sistemas. Como resultado de este trabajo también surgió una publicación en otra revista científica de prestigio internacional como es Energy Conversion and Management [97]. Con objeto de realizar esos y otros análisis, se desarrollaron diversos modelos del núcleo del ESFR siguiendo varias configuraciones, y para diferentes códigos. Por otro lado, con objeto de poder realizar análisis de seguridad de reactores rápidos, son necesarias herramientas multidimensionales de alta fidelidad específicas para reactores rápidos. Dichas herramientas deben integrar fenómenos relacionados con la neutrónica y con la termo-hidráulica, entre otros, mediante una aproximación multi-física. Siguiendo este objetivo, se evalúo el código de difusión neutrónica ANDES para su aplicación a reactores rápidos. ANDES es un código de resolución nodal que se encuentra implementado dentro del sistema COBAYA3 y está basado en el método ACMFD. Por lo tanto, el método ACMFD fue sometido a una revisión en profundidad para evaluar su aptitud para la aplicación a reactores rápidos. Durante ese proceso, se identificaron determinadas limitaciones que se discutirán a lo largo de este trabajo, junto con los desarrollos que se han elaborado e implementado para la resolución de dichas dificultades. Por otra parte, se desarrolló satisfactoriamente el acomplamiento del código neutrónico ANDES con un código termo-hidráulico de subcanales llamado SUBCHANFLOW, desarrollado recientemente en el KIT. Como conclusión de esta parte, todos los desarrollos implementados son evaluados y verificados. En paralelo con esos desarrollos, se calcularon para el núcleo del ESFR las secciones eficaces en multigrupos homogeneizadas a nivel nodal, así como otros parámetros neutrónicos, mediante los códigos ERANOS, primero, y SERPENT, después. Dichos parámetros se utilizaron más adelante para realizar cálculos estacionarios con ANDES. Además, como consecuencia de la contribución de la UPM al paquete de seguridad del proyecto CP-ESFR, se calcularon mediante el código SERPENT los parámetros de cinética puntual que se necesitan introducir en los típicos códigos termo-hidráulicos de planta, para estudios de seguridad. En concreto, dichos parámetros sirvieron para el análisis del impacto que tienen los actínidos minoritarios en el comportamiento de transitorios. Concluyendo, la tesis presenta una aproximación sistemática y multidisciplinar aplicada al análisis de seguridad y comportamiento neutrónico de los reactores rápidos de sodio de la Gen-IV, usando herramientas de cálculo existentes y recién desarrolladas ad' hoc para tal aplicación. Se ha empleado una cantidad importante de tiempo en identificar limitaciones de los métodos nodales analíticos en su aplicación en multigrupos a reactores rápidos, y se proponen interesantes soluciones para abordarlas. ABSTRACT The future of nuclear reactors will depend, among other aspects, on the capability to solve the long-term challenges linked to this technology. These are the capability to provide a definite, safe and reliable solution to the nuclear wastes; the limitation of natural resources, needed to fuel the reactors; and last but not least, the improved safety, which would avoid any potential damage on the public and or environment as a consequence of any imaginable and beyond imaginable circumstance. Following these motivations, the IV Generation of nuclear reactors arises, with the aim to provide sustainable, safe, economic and proliferationresistant electricity. Among the systems considered for the Gen IV, fast reactors have a representative role thanks to their potential capacity to transmute actinides together with the optimal usage of natural resources, being the sodium fast reactors the most promising concept. As a consequence, this thesis was born in the framework of the CP-ESFR project with the generic aim of evaluating the core physics and safety of sodium fast reactors, as well as the development of the approppriated tools to perform such analyses. Indeed, in a first part of this thesis work, the main core physics of the representative sodium fast reactor are assessed, including a detailed analysis of the capability to transmute minor actinides. A part of the results obtained have been published in Annals of Nuclear Energy [96]. Moreover, by means of the analysis of a hypothetical Spanish nuclear scenario, the availability of natural resources required to deploy an specific fleet of fast reactor is assessed, taking into account the breeding properties of such systems. This work also led to a publication in Energy Conversion and Management [97]. In order to perform those and other analyses, several models of the ESFR core were created for different codes. On the other hand, in order to perform safety studies of sodium fast reactors, high fidelity multidimensional analysis tools for sodium fast reactors are required. Such tools should integrate neutronic and thermal-hydraulic phenomena in a multi-physics approach. Following this motivation, the neutron diffusion code ANDES is assessed for sodium fast reactor applications. ANDES is the nodal solver implemented inside the multigroup pin-by-pin diffusion COBAYA3 code, and is based on the analytical method ACMFD. Thus, the ACMFD was verified for SFR applications and while doing so, some limitations were encountered, which are discussed through this work. In order to solve those, some new developments are proposed and implemented in ANDES. Moreover, the code was satisfactorily coupled with the thermal-hydraulic code SUBCHANFLOW, recently developed at KIT. Finally, the different implementations are verified. In addition to those developments, the node homogenized multigroup cross sections and other neutron parameters were obtained for the ESFR core using ERANOS and SERPENT codes, and employed afterwards by ANDES to perform steady state calculations. Moreover, as a result of the UPM contribution to the safety package of the CP-ESFR project, the point kinetic parameters required by the typical plant thermal-hydraulic codes were computed for the ESFR core using SERPENT, which final aim was the assessment of the impact of minor actinides in transient behaviour. All in all, the thesis provides a systematic and multi-purpose approach applied to the assessment of safety and performance parameters of Generation-IV SFR, using existing and newly developed analytical tools. An important amount of time was employed in identifying the limitations that the analytical nodal diffusion methods present when applied to fast reactors following a multigroup approach, and interesting solutions are proposed in order to overcome them.

Enhanced recommendations for e-learning authoring tools based on a proactive context-aware recommender

Authoring tools are powerful systems in the area of e-Learning that make easier for teachers to create new learning objects by reusing or editing existing educational resources coming from learning repositories or content providers. However, due to the overwhelming number of resources these tools can access, sometimes it is difficult for teachers to find the most suitable resources taking into account their needs in terms of content (e.g. topic) or pedagogical aspects (e.g. target level associated to their students). Recommender systems can take an important role trying to mitigate this problem. In this paper we propose a new model to generate proactive context-aware recommendations on resources during the creation process of a new learning object that a teacher carries out by using an authoring tool. The common use cases covered by the model for having recommendations in online authoring tools and details about the recommender model itself are presented.

Programming assignments automatic grading: review of tools and implementations

Automatic grading of programming assignments is an important topic in academic research. It aims at improving the level of feedback given to students and optimizing the professor time. Several researches have reported the development of software tools to support this process. Then, it is helpfulto get a quickly and good sight about their key features. This paper reviews an ample set of tools forautomatic grading of programming assignments. They are divided in those most important mature tools, which have remarkable features; and those built recently, with new features. The review includes the definition and description of key features e.g. supported languages, used technology, infrastructure, etc. The two kinds of tools allow making a temporal comparative analysis. This analysis infrastructure, etc. The two kinds of tools allow making a temporal comparative analysis. This analysis shows good improvements in this research field, these include security, more language support, plagiarism detection, etc. On the other hand, the lack of a grading model for assignments is identified as an important gap in the reviewed tools. Thus, a characterization of evaluation metrics to grade programming assignments is provided as first step to get a model. Finally new paths in this research field are proposed.

Guidance for the development of accessibility evaluation tools following the Unified Software Development Process

Automated and semi-automated accessibility evaluation tools are key to streamline the process of accessibility assessment, and ultimately ensure that software products, contents, and services meet accessibility requirements. Different evaluation tools may better fit different needs and concerns, accounting for a variety of corporate and external policies, content types, invocation methods, deployment contexts, exploitation models, intended audiences and goals; and the specific overall process where they are introduced. This has led to the proliferation of many evaluation tools tailored to specific contexts. However, tool creators, who may be not familiar with the realm of accessibility and may be part of a larger project, lack any systematic guidance when facing the implementation of accessibility evaluation functionalities. Herein we present a systematic approach to the development of accessibility evaluation tools, leveraging the different artifacts and activities of a standardized development process model (the Unified Software Development Process), and providing templates of these artifacts tailored to accessibility evaluation tools. The work presented specially considers the work in progress in this area by the W3C/WAI Evaluation and Report Working Group (ERT WG)

Assessment of irrigators’ preferences for different water supply risk management tools: option contract and insurance.

Irrigators face the risk of not having enough water to meet their crops’ demand. There are different mechanisms to cope with this risk, including water markets (option contracts) or insurance. A farmer will purchase them when the expected utility change derived from the tool is positive. This paper presents a theoretical assessment of the farmer’s expected utility under two different option contracts, a drought insurance and a combination of an option contract and the insurance. We analyze the conditions that determine farmer’s reference for one instrument or the other and perform a numerical application that is relevant for a Spanish region.

A contribution to appendage drag extrapolation using computational tools

In this paper, the foundations of the beta method, widely used in todays ship appendage extrapolations, are explored. The present work pretends to validate the Beta Method using experimental and computational tools. The ship used is a rounded bow tugboat with two significant appendages, namely, a midship protective structure for the propulsion system and a stern keel. The experimental and computational data was obtained through Towing Tank trials and a RANSE CFD code, respectively.

Using Knowledge Modelling Tools for Agent-Based Systems: The Experience of KSM

The aim of this chapter is to discuss the applicability of recently proposed knowledge modelling tools to the development of agent-based systems. The discussion is derived from the real world experience of a particular software tool called KSM (Knowledge Structure Manager). The chapter provides details about this tool and then proceeds to show in which forms the software may be used to support the development of agent-based systems. Two multiagent systems, one in the field of telecommunications management and the other one in the field of flood control, are described. Conclusions about these studies are presented, summarizing the main contributions that knowledge modelling tools can bring to the development of agent-based systems.

Lagrangian tools and the assessment of the predictive capacity of geophysical data sets

We examine, with recently developed Lagrangian tools, altimeter data and numerical simulations obtained from the HYCOM model in the Gulf of Mexico. Our data correspond to the months just after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the year 2010. Our Lagrangian analysis provides a skeleton that allows the interpretation of transport routes over the ocean surface. The transport routes are further verified by the simultaneous study of the evolution of several drifters launched during those months in the Gulf of Mexico. We find that there exist Lagrangian structures that justify the dynamics of the drifters, although the agreement depends on the quality of the data. We discuss the impact of the Lagrangian tools on the assessment of the predictive capacity of these data sets.

Development of Shape-Optimization Tools for the Aerodynamic Design of Turbomachinery Blades

The aim of this work is to develop an automated tool for the optimization of turbomachinery blades founded on an evolutionary strategy. This optimization scheme will serve to deal with supersonic blades cascades for application to Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) turbines. The blade geometry is defined using parameterization techniques based on B-Splines curves, that allow to have a local control of the shape. The location in space of the control points of the B-Spline curve define the design variables of the optimization problem. In the present work, the performance of the blade shape is assessed by means of fully-turbulent flow simulations performed with a CFD package, in which a look-up table method is applied to ensure an accurate thermodynamic treatment. The solver is set along with the optimization tool to determine the optimal shape of the blade. As only blade-to-blade effects are of interest in this study, quasi-3D calculations are performed, and a single-objective evolutionary strategy is applied to the optimization. As a result, a non-intrusive tool, with no need for gradients definition, is developed. The computational cost is reduced by the use of surrogate models. A Gaussian interpolation scheme (Kriging model) is applied for the estimated n-dimensional function, and a surrogate-based local optimization strategy is proved to yield an accurate way for optimization. In particular, the present optimization scheme has been applied to the re-design of a supersonic stator cascade of an axial-flow turbine. In this design exercise very strong shock waves are generated in the rear blade suction side and shock-boundary layer interaction mechanisms occur. A significant efficiency improvement as a consequence of a more uniform flow at the blade outlet section of the stator is achieved. This is also expected to provide beneficial effects on the design of a subsequent downstream rotor. The method provides an improvement to gradient-based methods and an optimized blade geometry is easily achieved using the genetic algorithm.

Molecular tools to improve chestnut management: El Bierzo as a case study

The European chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) is a multipurpose species that has been widely cultivated around the Mediterranean basin since ancient times. New varieties were brought to the Iberian Peninsula during the Roman Empire, which coexist since then with native populations that survived the last glaciation. The relevance of chestnut cultivation has being steadily growing since the Middle Ages, until the rural decline of the past century put a stop to this trend. Forest fires and diseases were also major factors. Chestnut cultivation is gaining momentum again due to its economic (wood, fruits) and ecologic relevance, and represents currently an important asset in many rural areas of Europe. In this Thesis we apply different molecular tools to help improve current management strategies. For this study we have chosen El Bierzo (Castile and Leon, NW Spain), which has a centenary tradition of chestnut cultivation and management, and also presents several unique features from a genetic perspective (next paragraph). Moreover, its nuts are widely appreciated in Spain and abroad for their organoleptic properties. We have focused our experimental work on two major problems faced by breeders and the industry: the lack of a fine-grained genetic characterization and the need for new strategies to control blight disease. To characterize with sufficient detail the genetic diversity and structure of El Bierzo orchards, we analyzed DNA from 169 trees grafted for nut production covering the entire region. We also analyzed 62 nuts from all traditional varieties. El Bierzo constitutes an outstanding scenario to study chestnut genetics and the influence of human management because: (i) it is located at one extreme of the distribution area; (ii) it is a major glacial refuge for the native species; (iii) it has a long tradition of human management (since Roman times, at least); and (iv) its geographical setting ensures an unusual degree of genetic isolation. Thirteen microsatellite markers provided enough informativeness and discrimination power to genotype at the individual level. Together with an unexpected level of genetic variability, we found evidence of genetic structure, with three major gene pools giving rise to the current population. High levels of genetic differentiation between groups supported this organization. Interestingly, genetic structure does not match with spatial boundaries, suggesting that the exchange of material and cultivation practices have strongly influenced natural gene flow. The microsatellite markers selected for this study were also used to classify a set of 62 samples belonging to all traditional varieties. We identified several cases of synonymies and homonymies, evidencing the need to substitute traditional classification systems with new tools for genetic profiling. Management and conservation strategies should also benefit from these tools. The avenue of high-throughput sequencing technologies, combined with the development of bioinformatics tools, have paved the way to study transcriptomes without the need for a reference genome. We took advantage of RNA sequencing and de novo assembly tools to determine the transcriptional landscape of chestnut in response to blight disease. In addition, we have selected a set of candidate genes with high potential for developing resistant varieties via genetic engineering. Our results evidenced a deep transcriptional reprogramming upon fungal infection. The plant hormones ET and JA appear to orchestrate the defensive response. Interestingly, our results also suggest a role for auxins in modulating such response. Many transcription factors were identified in this work that interact with promoters of genes involved in disease resistance. Among these genes, we have conducted a functional characterization of a two major thaumatin-like proteins (TLP) that belongs to the PR5 family. Two genes encoding chestnut cotyledon TLPs have been previously characterized, termed CsTL1 and CsTL2. We substantiate here their protective role against blight disease for the first time, including in silico, in vitro and in vivo evidence. The synergy between TLPs and other antifungal proteins, particularly endo-p-1,3-glucanases, bolsters their interest for future control strategies based on biotechnological approaches.

The development of a wind tunnel DAQ system by using Labview tools

This paper presents the experimental three-year learning activity developed by a group of teachers in a wind tunnel facility. The authors, leading a team of students, carried out a project consisting of the design, assembly and testing of a wind tunnel. The project included all stages of the process from its initial specifications to its final quality flow assessments, going through the calculation of each element, and the building of the whole wind tunnel. The group of (final year) students was responsible for the whole wind tunnel project as a part of their bachelor degree project. The paper focuses on the development of wind tunnel data acquisition software. This automatic tool is essential to improve the automation of the data acquisition of the wind tunnel facility systems, in particular for a 6DOF multi-axis force/torque sensor. This work can be considered as a typical example of real engineering practice: a set of specifications that has to be modified due to the constraints imposed throughout the project, in order to obtain the final result

Peer Assessment and Self-assessment: Effective Learning Tools in Higher Education.

When used appropriately, self- and peer-assessment are very effective learning tools. In the present work, instructor formative assessment and feedback, self-assessment (SA), and peer-assessment (PA) have been compared. During the first part of a semester, the students followed a continuous formative assessment. Subsequently, they were divided into two subgroups based on similar performances. One subgroup performed SAs, and the other followedPAduring the last part of the course. The performances of the two groups in solving problems were compared. Results suggest that PA is a more effective learning tool than SA, and both are more effective than instructor formative assessment. However, a survey that was conducted at the end of the experiment showed higher student confidence in instructor assessment than in PA. The students recognized the usefulness of acting as peer assessors, but believed that SA helped them more than PA.