Fundamental solution and discrete random walk model for time-space fractional diffusion equation

In this paper, we consider a time-space fractional diffusion equation of distributed order (TSFDEDO). The TSFDEDO is obtained from the standard advection-dispersion equation by replacing the first-order time derivative by the Caputo fractional derivative of order α∈(0,1], the first-order and second-order space derivatives by the Riesz fractional derivatives of orders β 1∈(0,1) and β 2∈(1,2], respectively. We derive the fundamental solution for the TSFDEDO with an initial condition (TSFDEDO-IC). The fundamental solution can be interpreted as a spatial probability density function evolving in time. We also investigate a discrete random walk model based on an explicit finite difference approximation for the TSFDEDO-IC.

Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

Near real-time prediction of Zenith Tropospheric Delays for position estimation over long-baseline CORS network

This paper presents the preliminary results in establishing a strategy for predicting Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) and relative ZTD (rZTD) between Continuous Operating Reference Stations (CORS) in near real-time. It is anticipated that the predicted ZTD or rZTD can assist the network-based Real-Time Kinematic (RTK) performance over long inter-station distances, ultimately, enabling a cost effective method of delivering precise positioning services to sparsely populated regional areas, such as Queensland. This research firstly investigates two ZTD solutions: 1) the post-processed IGS ZTD solution and 2) the near Real-Time ZTD solution. The near Real-Time solution is obtained through the GNSS processing software package (Bernese) that has been deployed for this project. The predictability of the near Real-Time Bernese solution is analyzed and compared to the post-processed IGS solution where it acts as the benchmark solution. The predictability analyses were conducted with various prediction time of 15, 30, 45, and 60 minutes to determine the error with respect to timeliness. The predictability of ZTD and relative ZTD is determined (or characterized) by using the previously estimated ZTD as the predicted ZTD of current epoch. This research has shown that both the ZTD and relative ZTD predicted errors are random in nature; the STD grows from a few millimeters to sub-centimeters while the predicted delay interval ranges from 15 to 60 minutes. Additionally, the RZTD predictability shows very little dependency on the length of tested baselines of up to 1000 kilometers. Finally, the comparison of near Real-Time Bernese solution with IGS solution has shown a slight degradation in the prediction accuracy. The less accurate NRT solution has an STD error of 1cm within the delay of 50 minutes. However, some larger errors of up to 10cm are observed.

Evaluating Specification Tests for Markov-Switching Time-Series Models

We evaluate the performance of several specification tests for Markov regime-switching time-series models. We consider the Lagrange multiplier (LM) and dynamic specification tests of Hamilton (1996) and Ljung–Box tests based on both the generalized residual and a standard-normal residual constructed using the Rosenblatt transformation. The size and power of the tests are studied using Monte Carlo experiments. We find that the LM tests have the best size and power properties. The Ljung–Box tests exhibit slight size distortions, though tests based on the Rosenblatt transformation perform better than the generalized residual-based tests. The tests exhibit impressive power to detect both autocorrelation and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH). The tests are illustrated with a Markov-switching generalized ARCH (GARCH) model fitted to the US dollar–British pound exchange rate, with the finding that both autocorrelation and GARCH effects are needed to adequately fit the data.

The influence of travel time and size of shopping center towards the frequencies of visiting customers in shopping centers in surabaya

Visiting a modern shopping center is becoming vital in our society nowadays. The fast growth of shopping center, transportation system, and modern vehicles has given more choices for consumers in shopping. Although there are many reasons for the consumers in visiting the shopping center, the influence of travel time and size of shopping center are important things to be considered towards the frequencies of visiting customers in shopping centers. A survey to the customers of three major shopping centers in Surabaya has been conducted to evaluate the Ellwood’s model and Huff’s model. A new exponent value N of 0.48 and n of 0.50 has been found from the Ellwood’s model, while a coefficient of 0.267 and an add value of 0.245 have been found from the Huff’s model.

Voter behaviour and constitutional change in Australia since 1967

Australian Constitutional referendums have been part of the Australian political system since federation. Up to the year 1999 (the time of the last referendum in Australia), constitutional change in Australia does not have a good history of acceptance. Since 1901, there have been 44 proposed constitutional changes with eight gaining the required acceptance according to section 128 of the Australian Constitution. In the modern era since 1967, there have been 20 proposals over seven referendum votes for a total of four changes. Over this same period, there have been 13 federal general elections which have realised change in government just five times. This research examines the electoral behaviour of Australian voters from 1967 to 1999 for each referendum. Party identification has long been a key indicator in general election voting. This research considers whether the dominant theory of voter behaviour in general elections (the Michigan Model) provides a plausible explanation for voting in Australian referendums. In order to explain electoral behaviour in each referendum, this research has utilised available data from the Australian Electoral Commission, the 1996 Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data, and the 1999 Australian Constitutional Referendum Study. This data has provided the necessary variables required to measure the impact of the Michigan Model of voter behaviour. Measurements have been conducted using bivariate and multivariate analyses. Each referendum provides an overview of the events at the time of the referendum as well as the =yes‘ and =no‘ cases at the time each referendum was initiated. Results from this research provide support for the Michigan Model of voter behaviour in Australian referendum voting. This research concludes that party identification, as a key variable of the Michigan Model, shows that voters continue to take their cues for voting from the political party they identify with in Australian referendums. However, the outcome of Australian referendums clearly shows that partisanship is only one of a number of contributory factors in constitutional referendums.

Effects of switching time on output voltages of a multilevel inverter used in high frequency applications

Employing multilevel inverters is a proper solution to reduce harmonic content of output voltage and electromagnetic interference in high power electronic applications. In this paper, a new pulse width modulation method for multilevel inverters is proposed in which power devices’ on-off switching times have been considered. This method can be surveyed in order to analyse the effect of switching time on harmonic contents of output voltage in high frequency applications when a switching time is not negligible compared to a switching cycle. Fast Fourier transform calculation and analysis of output voltage waveforms and harmonic contents with regard to switching time variation are presented in this paper for a single phase (3, 5)-level inverters used in high voltage and high frequency converters. Mathematical analysis and MATLAB simulation results have been carried out to validate the proposed method.

Accelerated computation of cyclic steady state for simulated-moving-bed processes

Industrial applications of the simulated-moving-bed (SMB) chromatographic technology have brought an emergent demand to improve the SMB process operation for higher efficiency and better robustness. Improved process modelling and more-efficient model computation will pave a path to meet this demand. However, the SMB unit operation exhibits complex dynamics, leading to challenges in SMB process modelling and model computation. One of the significant problems is how to quickly obtain the steady state of an SMB process model, as process metrics at the steady state are critical for process design and real-time control. The conventional computation method, which solves the process model cycle by cycle and takes the solution only when a cyclic steady state is reached after a certain number of switching, is computationally expensive. Adopting the concept of quasi-envelope (QE), this work treats the SMB operation as a pseudo-oscillatory process because of its large number of continuous switching. Then, an innovative QE computation scheme is developed to quickly obtain the steady state solution of an SMB model for any arbitrary initial condition. The QE computation scheme allows larger steps to be taken for predicting the slow change of the starting state within each switching. Incorporating with the wavelet-based technique, this scheme is demonstrated to be effective and efficient for an SMB sugar separation process. Moreover, investigations are also carried out on when the computation scheme should be activated and how the convergence of the scheme is affected by a variable stepsize.

Multi-objective mission flight planning in civil unmanned aerial systems

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are emerging as an ideal platform for a wide range of civil applications such as disaster monitoring, atmospheric observation and outback delivery. However, the operation of UAVs is currently restricted to specially segregated regions of airspace outside of the National Airspace System (NAS). Mission Flight Planning (MFP) is an integral part of UAV operation that addresses some of the requirements (such as safety and the rules of the air) of integrating UAVs in the NAS. Automated MFP is a key enabler for a number of UAV operating scenarios as it aids in increasing the level of onboard autonomy. For example, onboard MFP is required to ensure continued conformance with the NAS integration requirements when there is an outage in the communications link. MFP is a motion planning task concerned with finding a path between a designated start waypoint and goal waypoint. This path is described with a sequence of 4 Dimensional (4D) waypoints (three spatial and one time dimension) or equivalently with a sequence of trajectory segments (or tracks). It is necessary to consider the time dimension as the UAV operates in a dynamic environment. Existing methods for generic motion planning, UAV motion planning and general vehicle motion planning cannot adequately address the requirements of MFP. The flight plan needs to optimise for multiple decision objectives including mission safety objectives, the rules of the air and mission efficiency objectives. Online (in-flight) replanning capability is needed as the UAV operates in a large, dynamic and uncertain outdoor environment. This thesis derives a multi-objective 4D search algorithm entitled Multi- Step A* (MSA*) based on the seminal A* search algorithm. MSA* is proven to find the optimal (least cost) path given a variable successor operator (which enables arbitrary track angle and track velocity resolution). Furthermore, it is shown to be of comparable complexity to multi-objective, vector neighbourhood based A* (Vector A*, an extension of A*). A variable successor operator enables the imposition of a multi-resolution lattice structure on the search space (which results in fewer search nodes). Unlike cell decomposition based methods, soundness is guaranteed with multi-resolution MSA*. MSA* is demonstrated through Monte Carlo simulations to be computationally efficient. It is shown that multi-resolution, lattice based MSA* finds paths of equivalent cost (less than 0.5% difference) to Vector A* (the benchmark) in a third of the computation time (on average). This is the first contribution of the research. The second contribution is the discovery of the additive consistency property for planning with multiple decision objectives. Additive consistency ensures that the planner is not biased (which results in a suboptimal path) by ensuring that the cost of traversing a track using one step equals that of traversing the same track using multiple steps. MSA* mitigates uncertainty through online replanning, Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and tolerance. Each trajectory segment is modeled with a cell sequence that completely encloses the trajectory segment. The tolerance, measured as the minimum distance between the track and cell boundaries, is the third major contribution. Even though MSA* is demonstrated for UAV MFP, it is extensible to other 4D vehicle motion planning applications. Finally, the research proposes a self-scheduling replanning architecture for MFP. This architecture replicates the decision strategies of human experts to meet the time constraints of online replanning. Based on a feedback loop, the proposed architecture switches between fast, near-optimal planning and optimal planning to minimise the need for hold manoeuvres. The derived MFP framework is original and shown, through extensive verification and validation, to satisfy the requirements of UAV MFP. As MFP is an enabling factor for operation of UAVs in the NAS, the presented work is both original and significant.

Scene invariant crowd counting for real-time surveillance

Automated crowd counting allows excessive crowding to be detected immediately, without the need for constant human surveillance. Current crowd counting systems are location specific, and for these systems to function properly they must be trained on a large amount of data specific to the target location. As such, configuring multiple systems to use is a tedious and time consuming exercise. We propose a scene invariant crowd counting system which can easily be deployed at a different location to where it was trained. This is achieved using a global scaling factor to relate crowd sizes from one scene to another. We demonstrate that a crowd counting system trained at one viewpoint can achieve a correct classification rate of 90% at a different viewpoint.

Approaches for calculation of holding costs in the context of greenfield residential development

There are increasing indications that the contribution of holding costs and its impact on housing affordability is very significant. Their importance and perceived high level impact can be gauged from considering the unprecedented level of attention policy makers have given them recently. This may be evidenced by the embedding of specific strategies to address burgeoning holding costs (and particularly those cost savings associated with streamlining regulatory assessment) within statutory instruments such as the Queensland Housing Affordability Strategy, and the South East Queensland Regional Plan. However, several key issues require further investigation. Firstly, the computation and methodology behind the calculation of holding costs varies widely. In fact, it is not only variable, but in some instances completely ignored. Secondly, some ambiguity exists in terms of the inclusion of various elements of holding costs and assessment of their relative contribution. Perhaps this may in part be explained by their nature: such costs are not always immediately apparent. They are not as visible as more tangible cost items associated with greenfield development such as regulatory fees, government taxes, acquisition costs, selling fees, commissions and others. Holding costs are also more difficult to evaluate since for the most part they must be ultimately assessed over time in an ever-changing environment based on their strong relationship with opportunity cost which is in turn dependant, inter alia, upon prevailing inflation and / or interest rates. This paper seeks to provide a more detailed investigation of those elements related to holding costs, and in so doing determine the size of their impact specifically on the end user. It extends research in this area clarifying the extent to which holding costs impact housing affordability. Geographical diversity indicated by the considerable variation between various planning instruments and the length of regulatory assessment periods suggests further research should adopt a case study approach in order to test the relevance of theoretical modelling conducted.

Youth identities : time, space and social exclusion : exploring youth policy and practice in Sheffield, 1999-2003

The type and quality of youth identities ascribed to young people living in residual housing areas present opportunities for action as well as structural constraints. In this book three ethnographies, based on a youth work practitioner's observations, interviews and participation in local networks, identify young people's resistant identities. Through an analysis of social exclusion, youth policies and interviews with young people, youth workers and their managers, the book outlines a contingent network of relationships that hinder informal learning. Globalisation, individualisation, welfare/education reform and the rise of cultural social movements act upon youth identities and steer youth policies to subordinate the notion of informal group learning. Drawing on Castells' and Touraine's sociological models of identity, the book explores youth as a category of time and residual housing areas as a category of space, as they pertain to local dynamics of social exclusion.

Who's talking? Communication and the casual/part-time nurse : a literature review

The rapidly evolving nursing working environment has seen the increased use of flexible non standard employment, including part-time, casual and itinerate workers. Evidence suggests that the nursing workforce has been at the forefront of the flexibility push which has seen the appearance of a dual workforce and marginalization of part- time and casual workers by their full-time peers and managers. The resulting fragmentation has meant that effective communication management has become difficult. Additionally, it is likely that poor organisational communication exacerbated by the increased use of non standard staff, is a factor underlying current discontent in the nursing industry and may impact on both recruitment and retention problems as well as patient outcomes. This literature review explores the relationship between the increasing casualisation of the nursing workforce and, among other things, the communication practices of nurses within healthcare organisations.