Cascading events triggering industrial accidents: quantitative assessment of NaTech and domino scenarios

The so called cascading events, which lead to high-impact low-frequency scenarios are rising concern worldwide. A chain of events result in a major industrial accident with dreadful (and often unpredicted) consequences. Cascading events can be the result of the realization of an external threat, like a terrorist attack a natural disaster or of “domino effect”. During domino events the escalation of a primary accident is driven by the propagation of the primary event to nearby units, causing an overall increment of the accident severity and an increment of the risk associated to an industrial installation. Also natural disasters, like intense flooding, hurricanes, earthquake and lightning are found capable to enhance the risk of an industrial area, triggering loss of containment of hazardous materials and in major accidents. The scientific community usually refers to those accidents as “NaTechs”: natural events triggering industrial accidents. In this document, a state of the art of available approaches to the modelling, assessment, prevention and management of domino and NaTech events is described. On the other hand, the relevant work carried out during past studies still needs to be consolidated and completed, in order to be applicable in a real industrial framework. New methodologies, developed during my research activity, aimed at the quantitative assessment of domino and NaTech accidents are presented. The tools and methods provided within this very study had the aim to assist the progress toward a consolidated and universal methodology for the assessment and prevention of cascading events, contributing to enhance safety and sustainability of the chemical and process industry.

Holocene tsunami events in the Eastern Ionian Sea - Geoscientific evidence from Cefalonia and the western Peloponnese (Greece)

This study presents geo-scientific evidence for Holocene tsunami impact along the shores of the Eastern Ionian Sea. Cefalonia Island, the Gulf of Kyparissia and the Gialova Lagoon were subject of detailed geo-scientific investigations. It is well known that the coasts of the eastern Mediterranean were hit by the destructive influence of tsunamis in the past. The seismically highly active Hellenic Trench is considered as the most significant tsunami source in the Eastern Ionian Sea. This study focuses on the reconstruction and detection of sedimentary signatures of palaeotsunami events and their influence on the Holocene palaeogeographical evolution. The results of fine grained near coast geo-archives are discussed and interpreted in detail to differentiate between tsunami, storm and sea level highstands as sedimentation processes.rnA multi-method approach was applied using geomorphological, sedimentological, geochemical, geophysical and microfaunal analyses to detect Holocene tsunamigenic impact. Chronological data were based on radiocarbondatings and archaeological age estimations to reconstruct local geo-chronostratigraphies and to correlate them on supra-regional scales.rnDistinct sedimentary signatures of 5 generations of tsunami impact were found along the coasts of Cefalonia in the Livadi coastal plain. The results show that the overall coastal evolution was influenced by tsunamigenic impact that occured around 5700 cal BC (I), 4250 cal BC (II), at the beginning of the 2nd millennium cal BC (III), in the 1st millennium cal BC (IV) and posterior to 780 cal AD (V). Sea level reconstructions and the palaeogeographical evolution show that the local Holocene sea level has never been higher than at present.rnAt the former Mouria Lagoon along the Gulf of Kyparissia almost four allochtonous layers of tsunamigenic origin were identified. The stratigraphical record and palaeogeographical reconstructions show that major environmental coastal changes were linked to these extreme events. At the southern end of the Agoulenitsa Lagoon at modern Kato Samikon high-energy traces were found more than 2 km inland and upt ot 9 m above present sea level. The geo-chronological framework deciphered tsunami landfall for the 5th millennium cal BC (I), mid to late 2nd mill. BC (II), Roman times (1st cent. BC to early 4th cent. AD) (III) and most possible one of the historically well-known 365 AD or 521/551 AD tsunamis (IV).rnCoarse-grained allochthonous sediments of marine origin were found intersecting muddy deposits of the quisecent sediments of the Gialova Lagoon on the southwestern Peloponnese. Radiocarbondatings suggest 6 generations of major tsunami impact. Tsunami generations were dated to around 3300 cal BC (I), around the end of 4th and the beginning of 3rd millennium BC (II), after around 1100 cal BC (III), after the 4th to 2nd cent. BC (IV), between the 8th and early 15th cent. AD (V) and between the mid 14th to beginning of 15th cent. AD (VI). Palaeogeographical and morphological characteristics in the environs of the Gialova Lagoon were controlled by high-energy influence.rnSedimentary findings in all study areas are in good accordance to traces of tsunami events found all over the Ionian Sea. The correlation of geo-chronological data fits very well to coastal Akarnania, the western Peloponnese and finding along the coasts of southern Italy and the Aegean. Supra-regional influence of tsunamigenic impact significant for the investigated sites. The palaeogeographical evolution and palaeo-geomorphological setting of the each study area was strongly affected by tsunamigenic impact.rnThe selected geo-archives represent extraordinary sediment traps for the reconstruction of Holocene coastal evolution. Our result therefore give new insight to the exceptional high tsunami risk in the eastern Mediterranean and emphasize the underestimation of the overall tsunami hazard.

Untersuchungen der Aktivierungs- und Effektorwege von T-Helferzellen in der Pathogenese vaskulärer inflammatorischer Prozesse

T-Zellen sind an der Induktion und Erhaltung chronischer Entzündungen maßgeblich beteiligt. Im Bereich kardiovaskulärer Erkrankungen konnte eine Beteiligung von T-Zellen an der Entstehung von Ateriosklerose, Bluthochdruck und arterieller Thrombose aufgezeigt werden. Allerdings sind sowohl die Mechanismen ihrer Aktivierung, als auch die für die Entstehung und Persistenz vaskulärer Entzündung relevanten Effektorfunktionen weitgehend unbekannt. rnIn der vorliegenden Arbeit konnte erstmals in zwei Mausmodellen gezeigt werden, dass sowohl die dem Bluthochdruck zugrundeliegende Entzündung der Arterienwände als auch die durch venöse Thrombose ausgelöste Entzündung der Venenwand zu einer selektiven Einwanderung von CD4+ und CD8+ T-Zellen mit einem Effektor-Gedächtniszell-Phänotyp führt. Mit Hilfe von Nur77-GFP-transgenen Mäusen konnte gezeigt werden, dass die in die entzündeten Gefäßwände eingewanderten T-Zellen lokal T-Zell-Rezeptor-unabhängig aktiviert werden.rnBluthochdruck und venöse Thrombose sind durch eine verstärkte Expression eines ähnlichen Musters an Zytokinen und Chemokinen in den Gefäßwänden begleitet, das in rekombinanter Form in einem Teil der Effektor-T-Gedächtniszellen die Bildung von IFN-γ auslöst. Die in dieser Arbeit vorgestellten Ergebnisse weisen erstmals eine Beteiligung von T-Zellen an der Entzündung der Venenwand im Rahmen einer venösen Thrombose nach. Des Weiteren konnten erstmals Hinweise darauf gefunden werden, dass T-Zellen Gefäßentzündungen durch eine Zytokin-induzierte IFN-γ-Bildung erhalten und verstärken.rn

Measurement of the top quark mass in multijet events with the CMS experiment at LHC

La massa del quark top è qui misurata per mezzo dei dati raccolti dall’esperimento CMS in collisioni protone-protone ad LHC, con energia nel centro di massa pari ad 8 TeV. Il campione di dati raccolto corrisponde ad una luminosità integrata pari a 18.2 /fb. La misura è effettuata su eventi con un numero di jet almeno pari a 6, di cui almeno due b-taggati (ovvero identificati come prodotto dell’adronizzazione di due quark bottom). Il valore di massa trovato è di (173.95 +- 0.43 (stat)) GeV/c2, in accordo con la media mondiale. The top quark mass is here measured by using the data that have been collected with the CMS experiment in proton-proton collisions at the LHC, at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV. The dataset which was used, corresponds to an integrated luminosiy of 18.2 /fb. The mass measurement is carried out by using events characterized by six or more jets, two of which identified as being originated by the hadronization of bottom quarks. The result of the measurement of the top quark mass performed here is: (173.95 +- 0.43 (stat)) GeV/c2, in accordance with the recently published world average.

Search for Dark Matter in events with a highly energetic jet and missing transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at root out s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The experiments at the Large Hadron Collider at the European Centre for Particle Physics, CERN, rely on efficient and reliable trigger systems for singling out interesting events. This thesis documents two online timing monitoring tools for the central trigger of the ATLAS experiment as well as the adaption of the central trigger simulation as part of the upgrade for the second LHC run. Moreover, a search for candidates for so-called Dark Matter, for which there is ample cosmological evidence, is presented. This search for generic weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) is based on the roughly 20/fb of proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass-energy of sqrt{s}=8 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector in 2012. The considered signature are events with a highly energetic jet and large missing transverse energy. No significant deviation from the theory prediction is observed. Exclusion limits are derived on parameters of different signal models and compared to the results of other experiments. Finally, the results of a simulation study on the potential of the analysis at sqrt{s}=14 TeV are presented.

Characteristics of multijet t/t events reconstructed by CMS in pp collisions at 13 TeV

We present here a characterization of the Monte Carlo samples used at CMS in the current LHC run (Run 2, sqrt(s)=13 TeV) and we compare them to the ones used in the previous run (Run 1, sqrt(s)=8 TeV). We then use these samples to reconstruct the top quark mass from the all-hadronic decay products and we compare the efficiencies of the standard reconstruction method when applied to the two different samples. We finally find a way to improve the efficiency for 13 TeV samples by using jets reconstructed with a different algorithm, the Cambridge-Aachen algorithm.

Differences in Demographic Characteristics and Risk Factors in Patients With Spontaneous Vertebral Artery Dissections With and Without Ischemic Events

Spontaneous vertebral artery dissection (sVADs) mainly cause cerebral ischemia, with or without associated local symptoms and signs (headache, neck pain, or cervical radiculopathy), or with local symptoms and signs only.

Predicting adverse events in children with fever and chemotherapy-induced neutropenia: the prospective multicenter SPOG 2003 FN study

PURPOSE To develop a score predicting the risk of adverse events (AEs) in pediatric patients with cancer who experience fever and neutropenia (FN) and to evaluate its performance. PATIENTS AND METHODS Pediatric patients with cancer presenting with FN induced by nonmyeloablative chemotherapy were observed in a prospective multicenter study. A score predicting the risk of future AEs (ie, serious medical complication, microbiologically defined infection, radiologically confirmed pneumonia) was developed from a multivariate mixed logistic regression model. Its cross-validated predictive performance was compared with that of published risk prediction rules. Results An AE was reported in 122 (29%) of 423 FN episodes. In 57 episodes (13%), the first AE was known only after reassessment after 8 to 24 hours of inpatient management. Predicting AE at reassessment was better than prediction at presentation with FN. A differential leukocyte count did not increase the predictive performance. The score predicting future AE in 358 episodes without known AE at reassessment used the following four variables: preceding chemotherapy more intensive than acute lymphoblastic leukemia maintenance (weight = 4), hemoglobin > or = 90 g/L (weight = 5), leukocyte count less than 0.3 G/L (weight = 3), and platelet count less than 50 G/L (weight = 3). A score (sum of weights) > or = 9 predicted future AEs. The cross-validated performance of this score exceeded the performance of published risk prediction rules. At an overall sensitivity of 92%, 35% of the episodes were classified as low risk, with a specificity of 45% and a negative predictive value of 93%. CONCLUSION This score, based on four routinely accessible characteristics, accurately identifies pediatric patients with cancer with FN at risk for AEs after reassessment.

Effect of valsartan on the incidence of diabetes and cardiovascular events

It is not known whether drugs that block the renin-angiotensin system reduce the risk of diabetes and cardiovascular events in patients with impaired glucose tolerance.

Effect of nateglinide on the incidence of diabetes and cardiovascular events

The ability of short-acting insulin secretagogues to reduce the risk of diabetes or cardiovascular events in people with impaired glucose tolerance is unknown.

Different disparities of gender and race among the thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura and hemolytic-uremic syndromes

Thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP) and hemolytic-uremic syndrome (HUS) represent multiple disorders with diverse etiologies. We compared the gender and race of 335 patients enrolled in the Oklahoma TTP-HUS Registry across 21 years for their first episode of TTP or HUS to appropriate control groups. The relative frequency of women and white race among patients with TTP-HUS-associated with a bloody diarrhea prodrome and the relative frequency of women with quinine-associated TTP-HUS were significantly greater than their control populations. The relative frequency of women and black race among patients with idiopathic TTP and TTP-associated with severe ADAMTS13 deficiency was significantly greater than their control populations. The relative frequency of black race among patients who had systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) preceding TTP was significantly greater than among a population of patients with SLE, and the relative frequency of black race among patients with other autoimmune disorders preceding TTP was significantly greater than their control population. No significant gender or race disparities were present among patients with hematopoietic stem cell transplantation-associated thrombotic microangiopathy, TTP associated with pregnancy, or TTP associated with drugs other than quinine. The validity of these observations is supported by the enrollment of all consecutive patients across 21 years from a defined geographic region, without selection or referral bias. These observations of different gender and race disparities among the TTP-HUS syndromes suggest the presence of different risk factors and may serve as starting points for novel investigations of pathogenesis.

Survival and relapse in patients with thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura

Survival of patients with thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (TTP) improved dramatically with plasma exchange treatment, revealing risk for relapse. The Oklahoma TTP Registry is a population-based inception cohort of all 376 consecutive patients with an initial episode of clinically diagnosed TTP (defined as microangiopathic hemolytic anemia and thrombocytopenia with or without signs and symptoms of ischemic organ dysfunctions) for whom plasma exchange was requested, 1989 to 2008. Survival was not different between the first and second 10-year periods for all patients (68% and 69%, P = .83) and for patients with idiopathic TTP (83% and 77%, P = .33). ADAMTS13 activity was measured in 261 (93%) of 282 patients since 1995. Survival was not different between patients with ADAMTS13 activity < 10% (47 of 60, 78%) and patients with 10% or more (136 of 201, 68%, P = .11). Among patients with ADAMTS13 activity < 10%, an inhibitor titer of 2 or more Bethesda units/mL was associated with lower survival (P = .05). Relapse rate was greater among survivors with ADAMTS13 activity < 10% (16 of 47, 34%; estimated risk for relapse at 7.5 years, 41%) than among survivors with ADAMTS13 activity of 10% or more (5 of 136, 4%; P < .001). In 41 (93%) of 44 survivors, ADAMTS13 deficiency during remission was not clearly related to subsequent relapse.