976 resultados para Temporal models


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Os modelos de maturidade são instrumentos facilitadores da gestão das organizações, incluindo a gestão da sua função sistemas de informação, não sendo exceção as organizações hospitalares. Neste artigo apresenta-se uma investigação inicial que visa o desenvolvimento de um abrangente modelo de maturidade para a gestão dos sistemas de informação hospitalares. O desenvolvimento deste modelo justifica-se porque os modelos de maturidade atuais no domínio da gestão dos sistemas informação hospitalares ainda se encontram numa fase embrionária de desenvolvimento, sobretudo porque são pouco detalhados, não disponibilizam ferramentas para determinação da maturidade e não apresentam as características dos estágios de maturidade estruturadas por diferentes fatores de influência.

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O solo é um recurso multifuncional e vital para a humanidade, apresentando funções ecológicas, técnico-industriais, socioeconómicas e culturais, estabelecendo um vasto capital natural insubstituível. Face à sua taxa de degradação potencialmente rápida que, devido ao crescente desenvolvimento económico e incremento da população mundial, tem vindo a aumentar nas últimas décadas, o solo é, atualmente, um recurso finito e limitado. Devido a esta problemática, o presente documento visa abordar a progressiva preocupação sobre as questões geoambientais e toda a investigação que as envolvem, avaliando o modo como os contaminantes se dispersam pelo solo nas diferentes fases do mesmo (fases sólida, líquida e gasosa). A parte experimental centrou-se na análise da adsorção do benzeno, a partir da determinação das isotérmicas de adsorção. Para tal, foram previamente preparados reatores com calcário, sendo alguns deles previamente contaminados com um biocombustível, biodiesel, a uma concentração constante. Este processo foi monitorizado com base na evolução temporal da concentração na fase gasosa, através da cromatografia gasosa. De entre os objetivos, procurou-se analisar a distribuição dos contaminantes pelas fases constituintes do solo, ajustar os dados experimentais obtidos os modelos matemáticos de Langmuir, Freundlich e Polinomial, e verificar e discutir as soluções mais adequadas.

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This study focus on the probabilistic modelling of mechanical properties of prestressing strands based on data collected from tensile tests carried out in Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC), Portugal, for certification purposes, and covers a period of about 9 years of production. The strands studied were produced by six manufacturers from four countries, namely Portugal, Spain, Italy and Thailand. Variability of the most important mechanicalproperties is examined and the results are compared with the recommendations of the ProbabilisticModel Code, as well as the Eurocodes and earlier studies. The obtained results show a very low variability which, of course, benefits structural safety. Based on those results, probabilistic modelsfor the most important mechanical properties of prestressing strands are proposed.

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The last three decades have seen quite dramatic changes the way we modeled time dependent data. Linear processes have been in the center stage in modeling time series. As far as the second order properties are concerned, the theory and the methodology are very adequate.However, there are more and more evidences that linear models are not sufficiently flexible and rich enough for modeling purposes and that failure to account for non-linearities can be very misleading and have undesired consequences.

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This paper suggests that a convenient score test against non-nested alternatives can be constructed from the linear combination of the likelihood functions of the competing models. It is shown that this procedure is essentially a test for the correct specification of the conditional distribution of the variable of interest.

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In this work, kriging with covariates is used to model and map the spatial distribution of salinity measurements gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle in a sea outfall monitoring campaign aiming to distinguish the effluent plume from the receiving waters and characterize its spatial variability in the vicinity of the discharge. Four different geostatistical linear models for salinity were assumed, where the distance to diffuser, the west-east positioning, and the south-north positioning were used as covariates. Sample variograms were fitted by the Mat`ern models using weighted least squares and maximum likelihood estimation methods as a way to detect eventual discrepancies. Typically, the maximum likelihood method estimated very low ranges which have limited the kriging process. So, at least for these data sets, weighted least squares showed to be the most appropriate estimation method for variogram fitting. The kriged maps show clearly the spatial variation of salinity, and it is possible to identify the effluent plume in the area studied. The results obtained show some guidelines for sewage monitoring if a geostatistical analysis of the data is in mind. It is important to treat properly the existence of anomalous values and to adopt a sampling strategy that includes transects parallel and perpendicular to the effluent dispersion.

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Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

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RESUMO: A esporulação em Bacillus subtilis é controlada por uma cascata de factores sigma da polimerase do RNA. F e E controlam os estágios precoces do desenvolvimento no pré-esporo e na célula mãe, respectivamente. Numa fase intermédia da diferenciação, quando a célula mãe acaba por envolver o pré-esporo, F é substituído por G e E é substituído por K. Vários mecanismos asseguram que a actividade dos diferentes factores sigma seja confinada a uma janela temporal precisa na célula adequada. Neste estudo, investigámos a função de um factor anti-G, designado por CsfB. Mostramos que para além da sua função de inibição da actividade do factor G em células pré-divisionais, CsfB é também necessário na célula mãe num estágio tardio do desenvolvimento. Mostramos que a expressão de csfB é activada na célula mãe a partir de um promotor dependente de K. Contudo, demonstramos que CsfB interage directamente com E e não com K, e que CsfB é suficiente para inibir a actividade transcricional dependente de E em células vegetativas de B. subtilis. Propomos que CsfB contribui para reduzir o período dependente de E, na linha de expressão genética da célula mãe, desse modo reduzindo a sobreposição entre os regulões E e K e aumentado a fidelidade do processo de desenvolvimento. Uma segunda proteína, YabK, partilha semelhança estrutural com CsfB. YabK é produzida no pré-esporo sob o comando de F, e é necessária para a esporulação. YabK contribui para a transição F/G no programa genético do pré-esporo, porque uma mutação que torna F sensível a CsfB ultrapassa parcialmente a função de YabK na esporulação. No entanto, YabK e CsfB funcionam por mecanismos diferentes, uma vez que YabK não liga directamente a F.---------ABSTRACT: Gene expression during spore development in Bacillus subtilis is governed by a cascade of RNA polymerase sigma factors. F and E control the early stages of development in the forespore and in the mother cell, respectively. At an intermediate stage in the differentiation process, when the larger mother cell finishes engulfment of the smaller forespore, F is replaced by G and E is replaced by K. Several mechanisms ensure the proper timing of activation of the cell type-specific sigma factors. Here, we have investigated the funtion of an anti-sigma G factor, called CsfB. We show here that in addition to its role in inhibiting G in pre-divisional cells, CsfB is also required in the mother cell at a late stage in development. We show that the expression of csfB is activated in the mother cell from a K-specific promoter. However, we demonstrate that CsfB binds directly to E but not to K in a yeast two-hybrid assay, and that CsfB is sufficient to inhibit E-dependent transcriptional activity in vegetative cells of B. subtilis. We posit that CsfB contributes to shutting off the early, E-controlled period in the mother cell line of gene expression, thus reducing the overlap between deployment of the E and K regulons and increasing the fidelity of the developmental process. A second protein, YabK, shares structural similarity with CsfB. YabK is produced in the forespore under F control, and is required for efficient sporulation. YabK contributes to the transition from the F- to the G-dependent period of gene expression, because a mutation that renders F sensitive to CsfB partially bypasses the need for YabK. Yet, YabK and CsfB must function in the control of sigma factor activity by different mechanisms because YabK does not bind directly to F.

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Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e Computadores

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We used genus/species specific PCRs to determine the temporal persistence of host DNA in Triatoma infestans experimentally fed on blood from six common vertebrate species: humans, domestic dogs, guinea pigs, chickens, mice, and pigs. Twenty third or fourth instar nymphs per animal group were allowed to feed to engorgement, followed by fasting-maintenance in the insectary. At 7, 14, 21, or 28 days post-feeding, the midgut contents from five triatomines per group were tested with the respective PCR assay. DNA from all vertebrate species was detected in at least four of five study nymphs at seven and 14 days post-feeding. DNA of humans, domestic dogs, guinea pigs, pigs, and chickens were more successfully detected (80-100%) through day 21, and less successfully (20-100%) at day 28. Findings demonstrate that species-specific PCRs can consistently identify feeding sources of T. infestans within two weeks, a biologically relevant time interval.

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Leishmaniasis remains a major public health problem worldwide and is classified as Category I by the TDR/WHO, mainly due to the absence of control. Many experimental models like rodents, dogs and monkeys have been developed, each with specific features, in order to characterize the immune response to Leishmania species, but none reproduces the pathology observed in human disease. Conflicting data may arise in part because different parasite strains or species are being examined, different tissue targets (mice footpad, ear, or base of tail) are being infected, and different numbers (“low” 1×102 and “high” 1×106) of metacyclic promastigotes have been inoculated. Recently, new approaches have been proposed to provide more meaningful data regarding the host response and pathogenesis that parallels human disease. The use of sand fly saliva and low numbers of parasites in experimental infections has led to mimic natural transmission and find new molecules and immune mechanisms which should be considered when designing vaccines and control strategies. Moreover, the use of wild rodents as experimental models has been proposed as a good alternative for studying the host-pathogen relationships and for testing candidate vaccines. To date, using natural reservoirs to study Leishmania infection has been challenging because immunologic reagents for use in wild rodents are lacking. This review discusses the principal immunological findings against Leishmania infection in different animal models highlighting the importance of using experimental conditions similar to natural transmission and reservoir species as experimental models to study the immunopathology of the disease.

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Hepatitis B is a serious public health problem. The state of Santa Catarina presents areas of high endemicity. The aim of this study was to describe temporal trends in detection rates of hepatitis B in the period from 2002 to 2009 in Santa Catarina and in its regions. A time series study was carried out. Crude rates were calculated and standardized by age using the direct method. Annual variation percentages were estimated by Joinpoint regression. There were two distinct and significant trends in Santa Catarina. From 2002 to 2006 a significant increase of 5.9% per year was observed. From 2006, there was a significant decrease of 6.4% per year. In this same period the southern and far-western regions had significant increases of 15.9% and 4.6% and significant decreases of 7.5% and 4.8%, respectively. Greater Florianópolis and Northeast also showed significant increases until 2006, of 15.4% and 17.4%, respectively. In the following period, non-significant decreases of 5.8% and 9.8% respectively were observed. Foz do Rio Itajaí and Planalto Serrano showed non-significant increases up to half of the studied period of 21.1% and 12.0%, respectively and after, significant decreases of 21.5% and 18.0%, respectively. Vale do Itajaí showed a significant decrease of 9.7%; Planalto Norte showed a non-significant decrease of 0.6% and Midwest a non-significant increase of 2.7% per year, in the period from 2002 to 2009.

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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.