Forecasting Intraday Stock Price Trends with Text Mining Techniques

In this paper, we describe NewsCATS (news categorization and trading system), a system implemented to predict stock price trends for the time immediately after the publication of press releases. NewsCATS consists mainly of three components. The first component retrieves relevant information from press releases through the application of text preprocessing techniques. The second component sorts the press releases into predefined categories. Finally, appropriate trading strategies are derived by the third component by means of the earlier categorization. The findings indicate that a categorization of press releases is able to provide additional information that can be used to forecast stock price trends, but that an adequate trading strategy is essential for the results of the categorization to be fully exploited.

Rethinking ERP-Outsourcing Decisions for Leveraging Technological and Preserving Business Knowledge

During the selection, implementation and stabilization phases, as well as the operations and optimization phase of an ERP system (ERP-lifecycle), numerous companies consider to utilize the support of an external service provider. This paper analyses how different categories of knowledge influence the sourcing decision of crucial tasks within the ERP lifecycle. Based on a review of the IS outsourcing literature, essential knowledge-related determinants for the IS outsourcing decision are presented and aggregated in a structural model. It will be hypothesized that internal deficits in technological knowledge in comparison to external vendors as well as the specificity of the synthesis of special technological and specific business knowledge have a profound impact on the outsourcing decision. Then, a classification framework will be developed which facilitates the assignment of various tasks within the ERP lifecycle to their respective knowledge categories and knowledge carriers which might be internal or external stakeholders. The configuaration task will be used as an example to illustrate how the structural model and the classification framework may be applied to evaluate the outsourcing of tasks within the ERP lifecycle.

Forecasting cost based on a stochastic utilization plan and a fixed cost function

The application of Markov processes is very useful to health-care problems. The objective of this study is to provide a structured methodology of forecasting cost based upon combining a stochastic model of utilization (Markov Chain) and deterministic cost function. The perspective of the cost in this study is the reimbursement for the services rendered. The data to be used is the OneCare database of claim records of their enrollees over a two-year period of January 1, 1996–December 31, 1997. The model combines a Markov Chain that describes the utilization pattern and its variability where the use of resources by risk groups (age, gender, and diagnosis) will be considered in the process and a cost function determined from a fixed schedule based on real costs or charges for those in the OneCare claims database. The cost function is a secondary application to the model. Goodness-of-fit will be used checked for the model against the traditional method of cost forecasting. ^

"Ripple Effects" and Forecasting Home Prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix

We examine the time-series relationship between housing prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. First, temporal Granger causality tests reveal that Los Angeles housing prices cause housing prices in Las Vegas (directly) and Phoenix (indirectly). In addition, Las Vegas housing prices cause housing prices in Phoenix. Los Angeles housing prices prove exogenous in a temporal sense and Phoenix housing prices do not cause prices in the other two markets. Second, we calculate out-of-sample forecasts in each market, using various vector autoregessive (VAR) and vector error-correction (VEC) models, as well as Bayesian, spatial, and causality versions of these models with various priors. Different specifications provide superior forecasts in the different cities. Finally, we consider the ability of theses time-series models to provide accurate out-of-sample predictions of turning points in housing prices that occurred in 2006:Q4. Recursive forecasts, where the sample is updated each quarter, provide reasonably good forecasts of turning points.

Forecasting and Analyzing Economic Activity with Coincident and Leading Indexes: The Case of Connecticut

We develop coincident and leading employment indexes for the Connecticut economy. Four employment-related variables enter the coincident index while five employment-related variables enter the leading index. The peaks and troughs in the leading index lead the peaks and troughs in the coincident index by an average of 3 and 9 months. Finally, we use the leading index in vector-autoregressive (VAR) and Bayesian vector-autoregressive (BVAR) models to forecast the coincident index, nonfarm employment, and the unemployment rate.

A comparison of techniques for forecasting utilization of Veterans Affairs hospitals

This study demonstrated that accurate, short-term forecasts of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospital utilization can be made using the Patient Treatment File (PTF), the inpatient discharge database of the VA. Accurate, short-term forecasts of two years or less can reduce required inventory levels, improve allocation of resources, and are essential for better financial management. These are all necessary achievements in an era of cost-containment.^ Six years of non-psychiatric discharge records were extracted from the PTF and used to calculate four indicators of VA hospital utilization: average length of stay, discharge rate, multi-stay rate (a measure of readmissions) and days of care provided. National and regional levels of these indicators were described and compared for fiscal year 1984 (FY84) to FY89 inclusive.^ Using the observed levels of utilization for the 48 months between FY84 and FY87, five techniques were used to forecast monthly levels of utilization for FY88 and FY89. Forecasts were compared to the observed levels of utilization for these years. Monthly forecasts were also produced for FY90 and FY91.^ Forecasts for days of care provided were not produced. Current inpatients with very long lengths of stay contribute a substantial amount of this indicator and it cannot be accurately calculated.^ During the six year period between FY84 and FY89, average length of stay declined substantially, nationally and regionally. The discharge rate was relatively stable, while the multi-stay rate increased slightly during this period. FY90 and FY91 forecasts show a continued decline in the average length of stay, while the discharge rate is forecast to decline slightly and the multi-stay rate is forecast to increase very slightly.^ Over a 24 month ahead period, all three indicators were forecast within a 10 percent average monthly error. The 12-month ahead forecast errors were slightly lower. Average length of stay was less easily forecast, while the multi-stay rate was the easiest indicator to forecast.^ No single technique performed significantly better as determined by the Mean Absolute Percent Error, a standard measure of error. However, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models performed well overall and are recommended for short-term forecasting of VA hospital utilization. ^

Predicting the Past and Forecasting the Future

A commentary on Santos' article, "Explaining Scholarship Addressing Hispanic Children’s Issues."

Criteria of election of postgraduate courses in graduated students of technological/ humanistic/ artistic professions : Subjective and contextual involvements to arrive at the conclusion of them

El aumento en la cantidad de estudios de posgrado y de sus cursantes derivados de la demanda por mayores credenciales académicas en lo laboral y por la búsqueda personal para especializarse profesionalmente, es un fenómeno observado en Argentina desde mediados de los años 90. Obtener el título final de estos estudios resulta un porcentaje muy inferior en relación al número de sus inscriptos. Tales motivos focalizaron nuestra atención para analizar tanto los criterios de elección del posgrado como las condiciones contextuales y subjetivas para alcanzar la titulación. Este estudio, de tipo cualitativo, investiga en tres carreras de Especialización que se cursan en diferentes Universidades nacionales , los aspectos de su organización y estilo propuesto para cursar y lograr la finalización de los estudios, así como las motivaciones de la elección de cursantes y egresados en tres ramas diferentes: artística, humanística y tecnológica. El conocimiento sobre la lógica de la organización y la particularidad del objeto de estudio de cada carrera permite analizar diferencias y semejanzas entre ellas aportando algunas propuestas para considerar en programas de formación; mientras que los trayectos de cursantes y egresados explican aspectos subjetivos que intervienen en la finalización o no del posgrado.

Criteria of election of postgraduate courses in graduated students of technological/ humanistic/ artistic professions : Subjective and contextual involvements to arrive at the conclusion of them

El aumento en la cantidad de estudios de posgrado y de sus cursantes derivados de la demanda por mayores credenciales académicas en lo laboral y por la búsqueda personal para especializarse profesionalmente, es un fenómeno observado en Argentina desde mediados de los años 90. Obtener el título final de estos estudios resulta un porcentaje muy inferior en relación al número de sus inscriptos. Tales motivos focalizaron nuestra atención para analizar tanto los criterios de elección del posgrado como las condiciones contextuales y subjetivas para alcanzar la titulación. Este estudio, de tipo cualitativo, investiga en tres carreras de Especialización que se cursan en diferentes Universidades nacionales , los aspectos de su organización y estilo propuesto para cursar y lograr la finalización de los estudios, así como las motivaciones de la elección de cursantes y egresados en tres ramas diferentes: artística, humanística y tecnológica. El conocimiento sobre la lógica de la organización y la particularidad del objeto de estudio de cada carrera permite analizar diferencias y semejanzas entre ellas aportando algunas propuestas para considerar en programas de formación; mientras que los trayectos de cursantes y egresados explican aspectos subjetivos que intervienen en la finalización o no del posgrado.

Criteria of election of postgraduate courses in graduated students of technological/ humanistic/ artistic professions : Subjective and contextual involvements to arrive at the conclusion of them

El aumento en la cantidad de estudios de posgrado y de sus cursantes derivados de la demanda por mayores credenciales académicas en lo laboral y por la búsqueda personal para especializarse profesionalmente, es un fenómeno observado en Argentina desde mediados de los años 90. Obtener el título final de estos estudios resulta un porcentaje muy inferior en relación al número de sus inscriptos. Tales motivos focalizaron nuestra atención para analizar tanto los criterios de elección del posgrado como las condiciones contextuales y subjetivas para alcanzar la titulación. Este estudio, de tipo cualitativo, investiga en tres carreras de Especialización que se cursan en diferentes Universidades nacionales , los aspectos de su organización y estilo propuesto para cursar y lograr la finalización de los estudios, así como las motivaciones de la elección de cursantes y egresados en tres ramas diferentes: artística, humanística y tecnológica. El conocimiento sobre la lógica de la organización y la particularidad del objeto de estudio de cada carrera permite analizar diferencias y semejanzas entre ellas aportando algunas propuestas para considerar en programas de formación; mientras que los trayectos de cursantes y egresados explican aspectos subjetivos que intervienen en la finalización o no del posgrado.

Technology Choice, Change of Trade Structure, and A Case of Hungarian Economy

In the IT industry, there has been a remarkable increase in the demand for system LSI. A system LSI must be tailor-designed for each electrical appliance, and then produced. It is said that in recent years, this production method has made the IC cycle ambiguous. It can be sought that the choice of whether the economy pursues a development path centering on technology which is tradable or technology which is embodied in labor, depends on the historical background. In this paper, the economic background is explained in order to analyze and capture movements in the IT industry and technology. Then, an econometric model for Hungary has been constructed to estimate the effect of technological progress on the economy.