Integrated sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty propagation analysis approaches for supporting hydrological modeling

The successful performance of a hydrological model is usually challenged by the quality of the sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty analysis carried out in the modeling exercise and subsequent simulation results. This is especially important under changing climatic conditions where there are more uncertainties associated with climate models and downscaling processes that increase the complexities of the hydrological modeling system. In response to these challenges and to improve the performance of the hydrological models under changing climatic conditions, this research proposed five new methods for supporting hydrological modeling. First, a design of experiment aided sensitivity analysis and parameterization (DOE-SAP) method was proposed to investigate the significant parameters and provide more reliable sensitivity analysis for improving parameterization during hydrological modeling. The better calibration results along with the advanced sensitivity analysis for significant parameters and their interactions were achieved in the case study. Second, a comprehensive uncertainty evaluation scheme was developed to evaluate three uncertainty analysis methods, the sequential uncertainty fitting version 2 (SUFI-2), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Parameter solution (ParaSol) methods. The results showed that the SUFI-2 performed better than the other two methods based on calibration and uncertainty analysis results. The proposed evaluation scheme demonstrated that it is capable of selecting the most suitable uncertainty method for case studies. Third, a novel sequential multi-criteria based calibration and uncertainty analysis (SMC-CUA) method was proposed to improve the efficiency of calibration and uncertainty analysis and control the phenomenon of equifinality. The results showed that the SMC-CUA method was able to provide better uncertainty analysis results with high computational efficiency compared to the SUFI-2 and GLUE methods and control parameter uncertainty and the equifinality effect without sacrificing simulation performance. Fourth, an innovative response based statistical evaluation method (RESEM) was proposed for estimating the uncertainty propagated effects and providing long-term prediction for hydrological responses under changing climatic conditions. By using RESEM, the uncertainty propagated from statistical downscaling to hydrological modeling can be evaluated. Fifth, an integrated simulation-based evaluation system for uncertainty propagation analysis (ISES-UPA) was proposed for investigating the effects and contributions of different uncertainty components to the total propagated uncertainty from statistical downscaling. Using ISES-UPA, the uncertainty from statistical downscaling, uncertainty from hydrological modeling, and the total uncertainty from two uncertainty sources can be compared and quantified. The feasibility of all the methods has been tested using hypothetical and real-world case studies. The proposed methods can also be integrated as a hydrological modeling system to better support hydrological studies under changing climatic conditions. The results from the proposed integrated hydrological modeling system can be used as scientific references for decision makers to reduce the potential risk of damages caused by extreme events for long-term water resource management and planning.

Analysis of metallic nanoantennas for solar energy conversion

Recently thermo-electrical nanoantennas, also known as Seebeck nanoantennas, have been proposed as an alternative for solar energy harvesting applications. In this work we present the optical and thermal analysis of metallic nanoantennas operating at infrared wavelengths, this study is performed by numerical simulations using COMSOL Multiphysics. Several different nanoantenna designs were analyzed including dipoles, bowties and square spiral antennas. Results show that metallic nanoantennas can be tuned to absorb electromagnetic energy at infrared wavelengths, and that numerical simulation can be useful in optimizing the performance of these types of nanoantennas at optical and infrared wavelengths.

Measuring the Diversity and the Integration of Film Production in Mercosur: A Social Network Analysis

Based on an original and comprehensive database of all feature fiction films produced in Mercosur between 2004 and 2012, the paper analyses whether the Mercosur film industry has evolved towards an integrated and culturally more diverse market. It provides a summary of policy opportunities in terms of integration and diversity, emphasizing the limiter role played by regional policies. It then shows that although the Mercosur film industry remains rather disintegrated, it tends to become more integrated and culturally more diverse. From a methodological point of view, the combination of Social Network Analysis and the Stirling Model opens up interesting research tracks to analyse creative industries in terms of their market integration and their cultural diversity.

STPA-SafeSec: Safety and Security Analysis for Cyber-Physical Systems

Cyber-physical systems tightly integrate physical processes and information and communication technologies. As today’s critical infrastructures, e.g., the power grid or water distribution networks, are complex cyber-physical systems, ensuring their safety and security becomes of paramount importance. Traditional safety analysis methods, such as HAZOP, are ill-suited to assess these systems. Furthermore, cybersecurity vulnerabilities are often not considered critical, because their effects on the physical processes are not fully understood. In this work, we present STPA-SafeSec, a novel analysis methodology for both safety and security. Its results show the dependencies between cybersecurity vulnerabilities and system safety. Using this information, the most effective mitigation strategies to ensure safety and security of the system can be readily identified. We apply STPA-SafeSec to a use case in the power grid domain, and highlight its benefits.

Mapping of Submerged Aquatic Vegetation in Rivers From Very High Resolution Image Data, Using Object Based Image Analysis Combined with Expert Knowledge

The use of remote sensing for monitoring of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in fluvial environments has been limited by the spatial and spectral resolution of available image data. The absorption of light in water also complicates the use of common image analysis methods. This paper presents the results of a study that uses very high resolution (VHR) image data, collected with a Near Infrared sensitive DSLR camera, to map the distribution of SAV species for three sites along the Desselse Nete, a lowland river in Flanders, Belgium. Plant species, including Ranunculus aquatilis L., Callitriche obtusangula Le Gall, Potamogeton natans L., Sparganium emersum L. and Potamogeton crispus L., were classified from the data using Object-Based Image Analysis (OBIA) and expert knowledge. A classification rule set based on a combination of both spectral and structural image variation (e.g. texture and shape) was developed for images from two sites. A comparison of the classifications with manually delineated ground truth maps resulted for both sites in 61% overall accuracy. Application of the rule set to a third validation image, resulted in 53% overall accuracy. These consistent results show promise for species level mapping in such biodiverse environments, but also prompt a discussion on assessment of classification accuracy.

A review of Parkinson’s disease cardinal and dyskinetic motor symptoms assessment methods using sensor systems

This paper is reviewing objective assessments of Parkinson’s disease(PD) motor symptoms, cardinal, and dyskinesia, using sensor systems. It surveys the manifestation of PD symptoms, sensors that were used for their detection, types of signals (measures) as well as their signal processing (data analysis) methods. A summary of this review’s finding is represented in a table including devices (sensors), measures and methods that were used in each reviewed motor symptom assessment study. In the gathered studies among sensors, accelerometers and touch screen devices are the most widely used to detect PD symptoms and among symptoms, bradykinesia and tremor were found to be mostly evaluated. In general, machine learning methods are potentially promising for this. PD is a complex disease that requires continuous monitoring and multidimensional symptom analysis. Combining existing technologies to develop new sensor platforms may assist in assessing the overall symptom profile more accurately to develop useful tools towards supporting better treatment process.

Performance analysis in soccer: applications of player tracking technology

The aim of this thesis was threefold, firstly, to compare current player tracking technology in a single game of soccer. Secondly, to investigate the running requirements of elite women’s soccer, in particular the use and application of athlete tracking devices. Finally, how can game style be quantified and defined. Study One compared four different match analysis systems commonly used in both research and applied settings: video-based time-motion analysis, a semi-automated multiple camera based system, and two commercially available Global Positioning System (GPS) based player tracking systems at 1 Hertz (Hz) and 5 Hz respectively. A comparison was made between each of the systems when recording the same game. Total distance covered during the match for the four systems ranged from 10 830 ± 770 m (semi-automated multiple camera based system) to 9 510 ± 740m (video-based time-motion analysis). At running speeds categorised as high-intensity running (>15 km⋅h-1), the semi-automated multiple camera based system reported the highest distance of 2 650 ± 530 m with video-based time-motion analysis reporting the least amount of distance covered with 1 610 ± 370 m. At speeds considered to be sprinting (>20 km⋅h-1), the video-based time-motion analysis reported the highest value (420 ± 170 m) and 1 Hz GPS units the lowest value (230 ± 160 m). These results demonstrate there are differences in the determination of the absolute distances, and that comparison of results between match analysis systems should be made with caution. Currently, there is no criterion measure for these match analysis methods and as such it was not possible to determine if one system was more accurate than another. Study Two provided an opportunity to apply player-tracking technology (GPS) to measure activity profiles and determine the physical demands of Australian international level women soccer players. In four international women’s soccer games, data was collected on a total of 15 Australian women soccer players using a 5 Hz GPS based athlete tracking device. Results indicated that Australian women soccer players covered 9 140 ± 1 030 m during 90 min of play. The total distance covered by Australian women was less than the 10 300 m reportedly covered by female soccer players in the Danish First Division. However, there was no apparent difference in the estimated "#$%&', as measured by multi-stage shuttle tests, between these studies. This study suggests that contextual information, including the “game style” of both the team and opposition may influence physical performance in games. Study Three examined the effect the level of the opposition had on the physical output of Australian women soccer players. In total, 58 game files from 5 Hz athlete-tracking devices from 13 international matches were collected. These files were analysed to examine relationships between physical demands, represented by total distance covered, high intensity running (HIR) and distances covered sprinting, and the level of the opposition, as represented by the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) ranking at the time of the match. Higher-ranking opponents elicited less high-speed running and greater low-speed activity compared to playing teams of similar or lower ranking. The results are important to coaches and practitioners in the preparation of players for international competition, and showed that the differing physical demands required were dependent on the level of the opponents. The results also highlighted the need for continued research in the area of integrating contextual information in team sports and demonstrated that soccer can be described as having dynamic and interactive systems. The influence of playing strategy, tactics and subsequently the overall game style was highlighted as playing a significant part in the physical demands of the players. Study Four explored the concept of game style in field sports such as soccer. The aim of this study was to provide an applied framework with suggested metrics for use by coaches, media, practitioners and sports scientists. Based on the findings of Studies 1- 3 and a systematic review of the relevant literature, a theoretical framework was developed to better understand how a team’s game style could be quantified. Soccer games can be broken into key moments of play, and for each of these moments we categorised metrics that provide insight to success or otherwise, to help quantify and measure different methods of playing styles. This study highlights that to date, there had been no clear definition of game style in team sports and as such a novel definition of game style is proposed that can be used by coaches, sport scientists, performance analysts, media and general public. Studies 1-3 outline four common methods of measuring the physical demands in soccer: video based time motion analysis, GPS at 1 Hz and at 5 Hz and semiautomated multiple camera based systems. As there are no semi-automated multiple camera based systems available in Australia, primarily due to cost and logistical reasons, GPS is widely accepted for use in team sports in tracking player movements in training and competition environments. This research identified that, although there are some limitations, GPS player-tracking technology may be a valuable tool in assessing running demands in soccer players and subsequently contribute to our understanding of game style. The results of the research undertaken also reinforce the differences between methods used to analyse player movement patterns in field sports such as soccer and demonstrate that the results from different systems such as GPS based athlete tracking devices and semi-automated multiple camera based systems cannot be used interchangeably. Indeed, the magnitude of measurement differences between methods suggests that significant measurement error is evident. This was apparent even when the same technologies are used which measure at different sampling rates, such as GPS systems using either 1 Hz or 5 Hz frequencies of measurement. It was also recognised that other factors influence how team sport athletes behave within an interactive system. These factors included the strength of the opposition and their style of play. In turn, these can impact the physical demands of players that change from game to game, and even within games depending on these contextual features. Finally, the concept of what is game style and how it might be measured was examined. Game style was defined as "the characteristic playing pattern demonstrated by a team during games. It will be regularly repeated in specific situational contexts such that measurement of variables reflecting game style will be relatively stable. Variables of importance are player and ball movements, interaction of players, and will generally involve elements of speed, time and space (location)".

Non-comital women of twelfth-century England: a charter based analysis

This thesis sets out to explore the place and agency of non-comital women in twelfth-century Anglo-Norman England. Until now, broad generalisations have been applied to all aristocratic women based on a long established scholarship on royal and comital women. Non-comital women have been overlooked, mainly because of an assumed lack of suitable sources from this time period. The first aim of this thesis is to demonstrate that there is a sufficient corpus of charters for a study of this social group of women. It is based on a database created from 5545 charters, of which 3046 were issued by non-comital women and men, taken from three case study counties, Oxfordshire, Suffolk and Yorkshire, and is also supported by other government records. This thesis demonstrates that non-comital women had significant social and economic agency in their own person. By means of a detailed analysis of charters and their clauses this thesis argues that scholarship on non-comital women must rethink the framework applied to the study of non-comital women to address the lifecycle as one of continuities and as active agents in a wider public society. Non-comital women’s agency and identity was not only based on land or in widowhood, which has been the one period in their life cycles where scholars have recognised some level of autonomy, and women had agency in all stages of their life cycle. Women’s agency and identity were drawn from and part of a wider framework that included their families, their kin, and broader local political, religious, and social networks. Natal families continued to be important sources of agency and identity to women long after they had married. Part A of the thesis applies modern charter diplomatic analysis methods to the corpus of charters to bring out and explore women’s presence therein. Part B contextualises these findings and explores women’s agency in their families, landholding, the gift-economy, and the wider religious and social networks of which they were a part.

A comparison of neck bending and flexion measurement methods for assessment of ergonomic risk

International audience

Numerical analysis of wooden slabs with perforations under fire conditions

Wood is considered an ideal solution for floors and roofs building construction, due the mechanical and thermal properties, associated with acoustic conditions. These constructions have good sound absorption, heat insulation and relevant architectonic characteristics. They are used in many civil applications: concert and conference halls, auditoriums, ceilings, walls… However, the high vulnerability of wooden elements submitted to fire conditions requires the evaluation of its structural behaviour with accuracy. The main objective of this work is to present a numerical model to assess the fire resistance of wooden cellular slabs with different perforations. Also the thermal behaviour of the wooden slabs will be compared considering different material insulation, with different sizes, inside the cavities. A transient thermal analysis with nonlinear material behaviour will be solved using ANSYS© program. This study allows to verify the fire resistance, the temperature evolution and the char-layer, throughout a wooden cellular slab with perforations and considering the insulation effect inside the cavities.

THE EFFECT of ANIONIC SORPTION on THE METAKAOLINITE

This paper reports an investigation on the effect of thermal activation of kaolinite. It is well known that during calcinations (400-650 degrees C), kaolinite loses the OH lattice water and is transformed into metakaolinite or amorphous material. Arsenic is trace element that is toxic to animals including humans. The adsorption of arsenic on kaolinite was investigated at varying pH and thermal pretreatment. Calcination of sample is carried out at 650 degrees C for 3 h. The decomposition of kaolinite is recorded using methods of thermal analysis. The resultant product is identified by XRD. Laboratory experiments were conducted examining the effect of arsenic by thermally modified kaolinite. The Langmuir isotherm was used to describe arsenite and arsenate sorption by the calcined kaolinite. The equilibrium parameters used were based on experimental data obtained for the dynamic adsorption process of arsenic. Removal of arsenate using natural kaolinite was satisfactory, whereas arsenic was not removed by adsorption with thermally modified kaolinite. Moreover, the adsorption of arsenic by kaolinite and metakaolinite decreases with increasing pH.