Methods and resources for climate impacts research: achieving synergy

The prediction of climate variability and change requires the use of a range of simulation models. Multiple climate model simulations are needed to sample the inherent uncertainties in seasonal to centennial prediction. Because climate models are computationally expensive, there is a tradeoff between complexity, spatial resolution, simulation length, and ensemble size. The methods used to assess climate impacts are examined in the context of this trade-off. An emphasis on complexity allows simulation of coupled mechanisms, such as the carbon cycle and feedbacks between agricultural land management and climate. In addition to improving skill, greater spatial resolution increases relevance to regional planning. Greater ensemble size improves the sampling of probabilities. Research from major international projects is used to show the importance of synergistic research efforts. The primary climate impact examined is crop yield, although many of the issues discussed are relevant to hydrology and health modeling. Methods used to bridge the scale gap between climate and crop models are reviewed. Recent advances include large-area crop modeling, quantification of uncertainty in crop yield, and fully integrated crop–climate modeling. The implications of trends in computer power, including supercomputers, are also discussed.

The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management

A review of the implications of climate change for freshwater resources, based on Chapter 4 of Working Group 2, IPCC.

The impact of fallowing and green manuring on soil conditions and the growth of sugarcane

There are currently concerns within some sugar industries that long-term monoculture has led to soil degradation and consequent yield decline. An investigation was conducted in Swaziland to assess the effects of fallowing and green manuring practices, over a seven-month period, on sugarcane yields and the physical properties of a poorly draining clay soil. In the subsequent first sugarcane crop after planting, yields were improved from 129 t ha(-1) under continuous sugarcane to 141-144 t ha(-1) after fallowing and green manuring, but there were no significant responses in the first and second ratoon crops. Also, in the first crop after planting, root length index increased from 3.5 km m(-2) under continuous sugarcane to 5.2-6.8 km m(-2) after fallowing, and improved rooting was still evident in the first ratoon crop where there had been soil drying during the fallow period. Soil bulk density, total porosity and water-holding capacity were not affected by the fallowing practices. However, air-filled porosity increased from 11% under continuous sugarcane to 16% after fallowing, and steady state ponded infiltration rates were increased from 0.61 mm h(-1) to 1.34 mm h(-1), but these improvements were no longer evident after a year back under sugarcane. Levels of soil organic matter were reduced in all cases, probably as a result of the tillage operations involved. In the plant crop, root length was well correlated with air-filled porosity, indicating the importance of improving belowground air supply for crop production on poorly draining clay soils.

Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: River Kennet, UK

An integrated approach to climate change impact assessment is explored by linking established models of regional climate (SDSM), water resources (CATCHMOD) and water quality (INCA) within a single framework. A case study of the River Kennet illustrates how the system can be used to investigate aspects of climate change uncertainty, deployable water resources, and water quality dynamics in upper and lower reaches of the drainage network. The results confirm the large uncertainty in climate change scenarios and freshwater impacts due to the choice of general circulation model (GCM). This uncertainty is shown to be greatest during summer months as evidenced by large variations between GCM-derived projections of future tow river flows, deployable yield from groundwater, severity of nutrient flushing episodes, and Long-term trends in surface water quality. Other impacts arising from agricultural land-use reform or delivery of EU Water Framework Directive objectives under climate change could be evaluated using the same framework. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.