Modelagem auto-regressiva na previsão de demanda dos produtos de uma empresa do setor químico

Considering the high competitiveness in the industrial chemical sector, demand forecast is a relevant factor for decision-making. There is a need for tools capable of assisting in the analysis and definition of the forecast. In that sense, the objective is to generate the chemical industry forecast using an advanced forecasting model and thus verify the accuracy of the method. Because it is time series with seasonality, the model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average - SARIMA generated reliable forecasts and acceding to the problem analyzed, thus enabling, through validation with real data improvements in the management and decision making of supply chain

Modelagem auto-regressiva na previsão de demanda dos produtos de uma empresa do setor químico

Considering the high competitiveness in the industrial chemical sector, demand forecast is a relevant factor for decision-making. There is a need for tools capable of assisting in the analysis and definition of the forecast. In that sense, the objective is to generate the chemical industry forecast using an advanced forecasting model and thus verify the accuracy of the method. Because it is time series with seasonality, the model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average - SARIMA generated reliable forecasts and acceding to the problem analyzed, thus enabling, through validation with real data improvements in the management and decision making of supply chain

Evaluating alternative industrial network organizations and information systems

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present a simulation‐based evaluation method for the comparison of different organizational forms and software support levels in the field of supply chain management (SCM). Design/methodology/approach – Apart from widely known logistic performance indicators, the discrete event simulation model considers explicitly coordination cost as stemming from iterative administration procedures. Findings - The method is applied to an exemplary supply chain configuration considering various parameter settings. Curiously, additional coordination cost does not always result in improved logistic performance. Influence factor variations lead to different organizational recommendations. The results confirm the high importance of (up to now) disregarded dimensions when evaluating SCM concepts and IT tools. Research limitations/implications – The model is based on simplified product and network structures. Future research shall include more complex, real world configurations. Practical implications – The developed method is designed for the identification of improvement potential when SCM software is employed. Coordination schemes based only on ERP systems are valid alternatives in industrial practice because significant investment IT can be avoided. Therefore, the evaluation of these coordination procedures, in particular the cost due to iterations, is of high managerial interest and the method provides a comprehensive tool for strategic IT decision making. Originality/value – Reviewed literature is mostly focused on the benefits of SCM software implementations. However, ERP system based supply chain coordination is still widespread industrial practice but associated coordination cost has not been addressed by researchers.

R&D, innovation and exporting:evidence from UK new technology based firms

We examine the relationship between R&D, innovation and exporting for a sample of new technology based firms (NTBFs) in the UK. Allowance is made for selection bias and for endogeneity between innovation and exporting. Innovators are more likely to export, but conditional on entering export markets successful innovation does not increases subsequent export intensity. Lagged productivity is strongly associated with exporting, supporting the view that efficient firms are better able to overcome the barriers to entering export markets. We also find strong evidence of the importance of internal R&D and of supply-chain collaborations in fostering innovation, and that formal commercial collaborations can be important in overcoming the (information) sunk costs of entering export markets. The use of e-commerce does nothing to boost entry into export markets, but the intensity of its use is associated with increased export intensity.

R&D, product innovation, and exporting:evidence from UK new technology based firms

We examine the relationship between R&D, product innovation, and exporting for a sample of new technology based firms (NTBFs) in the UK. Allowance is made for selection bias and for endogeneity between innovation and exporting. Product innovators are more likely to export, but conditional on entering export markets successful innovation does not increase subsequent export intensity. Lagged productivity is strongly associated with exporting, supporting the view that efficient firms are better able to overcome the barriers to entering export markets. We also find strong evidence of the importance of internal R&D and of supply-chain collaborations in fostering innovation, and that formal commercial collaborations can be important in overcoming the (information) sunk costs of entering export markets. The use of e-commerce does nothing to boost entry into export markets, but the intensity of its use is associated with increased export intensity.

Designing and implementing a blended learning approach to executive SCM education:a case study from Ireland

The National Institute for Transport and Logistics (NITL) is Ireland’s centre of excellence for supply chain management (SCM). As part of its mission to promote the development of supply chain expertise in Irish business, it designs and delivers executive modular learning programmes. In 2004, as part of a drive to create more flexible learning opportunities for course participants, NITL designed and implemented an eLearning programme, which involved converting traditionally tutored modules to online modules. This paper describes the rationale behind this initiative and the significance of technology as an enabling tool for executive education, as well as detailing the design and implementation processes for the pilot module. The paper concludes with a critique of the expected and actual benefits realised, as well as future development considerations.

Procedural justice in procurement management and inclusive interorganizational relations:An institutional perspective

This paper applies the concept of procedural justice to one of the most important focal points of interorganizational relations: the purchaser-supplier relationship. The few extant studies of the concept in the purchaser-supplier domain have overlooked an important aspect of this key relationship: that is, inclusiveness in procurement. This is despite the fact that interest in the specific empirical context of supply chain links between large purchasing organizations (LPOs) and ethnic minority suppliers (EMSs) from disadvantaged communities proceeds apace on both sides of the Atlantic. Institutional theory is used to examine the form that procedural justice takes in eight case studies of LPOs from the private and public sectors, which actively engage with inclusive procurement management initiatives in England. The guiding question is twofold: 'What may LPO approaches to installing procedural justice in procurement management entail?' and 'How are these approaches shaped?' This paper identifies specific approaches to installing procedural justice for inclusive procurement and submits theoretical propositions about how these are shaped. The study contributes to a macro-level assessment of procedural justice, i.e. interorganizational procedural justice, as a significant aspect of inclusive interorganizational relationships, which is a domain in need of theoretical development.

Análise da gestão da cadeia de suprimentos de um supermercado varejista através da utilização do modelo SCOR

In the last decade the complexity of the environment in which organizations are embedded increased dramatically, having on one side the increasingly demanding consumers in regard to the quality and value of the product and the other companies with the need to reduce operating costs in order to achieve greater profitability, without this there is a downturn in growth or market share powers. In this context the necessity of effectively structuring actions relating to the line with the operational work processes so that business objectives are achieved organizational strategic planning, ensuring the competitiveness of the organization. This study aims to analyze how you have made the management of the supply chain in a grocery retailer in the light of guidelines of Supply Chain Management by using the SCOR model. For realization of this study a survey was needed, classified according to their goals, exploratory and descriptive as to its procedure, document, field and case study. Thus, the processing of data will be qualitative merit, using the thematic categorical analysis of Bardin (1977). Thus, to obtain data interviews together the operational and strategic management of a company that was named Supermarket Omega were performed. After analyzing the information obtained is perceived that there is an effort of the organization enhance its management of the supply chain. However, there is a lack of alignment between the various areas that compose it. About their work processes, we stress that the focus of the company is still very directed on sailing than profitability, although it is undergoing a transformation in its organizational culture However, records the existence of many improvement projects in developing. Thus, it can be noticed that there is some consistency between the assumptions of the SCOR model and applied within the supply chain Omega Supermarket, although a greater effort to better align with the model still needs to be studied

Ferramentas de apoio à implementação da sustentabilidade na gestão da cadeia de abastecimento

O presente trabalho tem como principal objetivo contribuir para o desenvolvimento de um modelo de gestão da cadeia de abastecimento sustentável, posteriormente operacionalizado num conjunto de empresas. O principal elemento diferenciador do modelo apresentado é o seu cariz operacional, focado na fase da implementação com a integração de um conjunto de práticas de apoio à sustentabilidade. Para responder às pressões da conjuntura económica atual, das alterações climáticas, da escassez de recursos e das desigualdades sociais é necessário desenvolver de forma consolidada e abrangente um novo paradigma de gestão nas empresas. Muitas destas pressões fazem-se sentir nas atividades da Gestão da Cadeia de Abastecimento. O grande desafio é conseguir que as empresas obtenham bons resultados económicos, sociais e ambientais. A sustentabilidade tem sido abordada como a área de estudo donde deverá emergir este novo paradigma de gestão. Atendendo a esta problemática, a principal questão de investigação do presente trabalho é “Como se implementa a Sustentabilidade na Gestão da Cadeia de Abastecimento?” A metodologia de investigação partiu da revisão da literatura que permitiu estruturar um conjunto de pressupostos teóricos, estruturados num modelo conceptual sobre a implementação da sustentabilidade na Gestão da Cadeia de Abastecimento. O modelo foi aplicado em dois grupos de estudos empíricos: Análise Qualitativa de Relatórios de Sustentabilidade publicados por seis empresas com atividade em Portugal (Sonae; Lipor, Galp; EDP; Portucel e AutoEuropa); e o desenvolvimento de dois Estudos de Caso nas empresas Bosch Termotecnologia e Gestamp Aveiro. Os resultados permitiram o desenvolvimento de um Modelo Teórico de Implementação da Sustentabilidade na Gestão da Cadeia de Abastecimento. Bem como, um modelo de classificação das ferramentas de apoio à implementação da sustentabilidade adequadas a cada etapa que constitui o modelo de implementação. No desenvolvimento deste trabalho, acreditou-se que o caminho da sustentabilidade é possível e tangível. Os modelos desenvolvidos explicam que a integração da sustentabilidade se enceta pela estruturação da área da sustentabilidade na organização, prosseguindo com o processo de implementação constituído por quatro etapas: Envolvimento, Execução, Monitorização e Comunicação. A implementação necessita de ser abrangente a toda a cadeia de valor e apoiada num conjunto de ferramentas adequadas a cada fase de implementação.

Análise da gestão da cadeia de suprimentos de um supermercado varejista através da utilização do modelo SCOR

In the last decade the complexity of the environment in which organizations are embedded increased dramatically, having on one side the increasingly demanding consumers in regard to the quality and value of the product and the other companies with the need to reduce operating costs in order to achieve greater profitability, without this there is a downturn in growth or market share powers. In this context the necessity of effectively structuring actions relating to the line with the operational work processes so that business objectives are achieved organizational strategic planning, ensuring the competitiveness of the organization. This study aims to analyze how you have made the management of the supply chain in a grocery retailer in the light of guidelines of Supply Chain Management by using the SCOR model. For realization of this study a survey was needed, classified according to their goals, exploratory and descriptive as to its procedure, document, field and case study. Thus, the processing of data will be qualitative merit, using the thematic categorical analysis of Bardin (1977). Thus, to obtain data interviews together the operational and strategic management of a company that was named Supermarket Omega were performed. After analyzing the information obtained is perceived that there is an effort of the organization enhance its management of the supply chain. However, there is a lack of alignment between the various areas that compose it. About their work processes, we stress that the focus of the company is still very directed on sailing than profitability, although it is undergoing a transformation in its organizational culture However, records the existence of many improvement projects in developing. Thus, it can be noticed that there is some consistency between the assumptions of the SCOR model and applied within the supply chain Omega Supermarket, although a greater effort to better align with the model still needs to be studied

El fracaso en los emprendedores colombianos: una aproximación desde la logística

El objetivo de esta investigación se centra en el análisis de los factores que inciden con mayor frecuencia en el fracaso de los emprendimientos en Colombia, y considerar su proximidad con el concepto de logística como actividad elemental para el desarrollo de los emprendimientos en el país. La finalidad de esta investigación es mostrar que los patrones que conducen al fracaso, los cuales están catalogados dentro de las categorías financiera, organizacional, operativa, de entorno, de mercadeo o de recursos humanos, tienen un nivel de incidencia dentro del fracaso, por lo cual, se puede ejecutar un análisis que permita demostrar el orden de las seis categorías mencionadas según su impacto dentro del fracaso y a su vez, brindar estrategias que permitan reducir las posibilidades de fracasar en los emprendimientos.

Aplicaciones del Caos y la Complejidad en la Cadena de Suministros del Sector Agroindustrial

La presente investigación consiste en determinar las aplicaciones existentes de las teorías del caos y las teorías de la complejidad en la cadena de suministro del sector agroindustrial colombiano. Además, tiene como propósito describir el sector de la agroindustria y la cadena de suministro, identificar los modelos de caos y complejidad y posteriormente determinar cuáles de éstos son aplicables al sector. Se define el caos como una sub-disciplina de las matemáticas que estudia sistemas complejos o dinámicos y tiene inmerso implicaciones filosóficas; por otra parte complejidad es la cualidad que adquiere un sistema en el que hay diversos componentes relacionados. Se ha identificado que en el ámbito colombiano existen diferentes estudios enfocados en la construcción de modelos agroindustriales, donde se adopta el concepto de complejidad para calificar el atributo de dichos modelos que involucran la armonización e integración de diferentes actores, desde los productores hasta los consumidores. En este estudio se emplea un estudio monográfico de tipo documental teniendo como unidad de análisis la cadena de suministro del sector agroindustrial. Los resultados indican que las teorías del caos y complejidad se encuentran presentes dentro de la cadena de suministros del sector agroindustrial colombiano, ya que en ella se ocurre la interconexión entre productores, procesadores y comercializadores, interactuando entre ellos y presentando alteraciones en su comportamiento económico a lo largo del tiempo en función de variaciones de las condiciones iniciales influenciadas por variables macroeconómicas, ambientales, sociales y políticas.

La influencia de la cultura nacional en el desempeño logístico de los 123 primeros países en el logistics performance index (LPI)

En esta tesis se presenta la influencia que tiene la Cultura Nacional en el desempeño Logístico de una Nación, en especial de los 123 primeros países evaluados por el Índice de Desempeño Logístico (LPI) realizado por el Banco Mundial. Este estudio se realiza a partir de los seis ítems evaluados en el LPI y de las seis Dimensiones Culturales de Hofstede, para relacionar estas calificaciones se empleará el programa estadístico SPSS Statistical Package for the Social Sciences obteniendo como resultado posibles correlaciones para probar la hipótesis del efecto de la cultura en el desempeño logístico y establecer patrones de comportamiento en los mejores países de cada correlación. De acuerdo a los resultados obtenidos de estas correlaciones, se encontró que si existe una relación entre la cultura nacional y el desempeño logístico de un país, al igual que las dimensiones culturales más influyentes para obtener dichos resultados y se identificaron los países que cuentan con condiciones sobresalientes que facilitan tener altas posiciones en el LPI.

Analytics and Methods for Logistic System Design and Operations Management

Analytics is the technology working with the manipulation of data to produce information able to change the world we live every day. Analytics have been largely used within the last decade to cluster people’s behaviour to predict their preferences of items to buy, music to listen, movies to watch and even electoral preference. The most advanced companies succeded in controlling people’s behaviour using analytics. Despite the evidence of the super-power of analytics, they are rarely applied to the big data collected within supply chain systems (i.e. distribution network, storage systems and production plants). This PhD thesis explores the fourth research paradigm (i.e. the generation of knowledge from data) applied to supply chain system design and operations management. An ontology defining the entities and the metrics of supply chain systems is used to design data structures for data collection in supply chain systems. The consistency of this data is provided by mathematical demonstrations inspired by the factory physics theory. The availability, quantity and quality of the data within these data structures define different decision patterns. Ten decision patterns are identified, and validated on-field, to address ten different class of design and control problems in the field of supply chain systems research.

Sustainability of the Peruvian anchoveta supply chains from sea to shelf: towards a new strategy for optimal use of resources

The research performed a sustainability assessment of supply chains of the anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) in Peru. The corresponding fisheries lands 6.5 million t per year, of which <2% is rendered into products for direct human consumption (DHC) and 98% reduced into feed ingredients (fishmeal and fish oil, FMFO), for export. Several industries compete for the anchoveta resources, generating local and global impacts. The need for understanding these dynamics, towards sustainability-improving management and policy recommendations, determined the development of a sustainability assessment framework: 1) characterisation and modelling of the systems under study (with Life Cycle Assessment and other tools) including local aquaculture, 2) calculation of sustainability indicators (i.e. energy efficiency, nutritional value, socio-economic performances), and 3) sustainability comparison of supply chains; definition and comparison of alternative exploitation scenarios. Future exploitation scenarios were defined by combining an ecosystem and a material flow models: continuation of the status quo (Scenario 1), shift towards increased proportion of DHC production (Scenario 2), and radical reduction of the anchoveta harvest in order for other fish stocks to recover and be exploited for DHC (Scenario 3). Scenario 2 was identified as the most sustainable. Management and policy recommendations include improving of: controls for compliance with management measures, sanitary conditions for DHC, landing infrastructure for small- and medium-scale (SMS) fisheries; the development of a national refrigerated distribution chain; and the assignation of flexible tolerances for discards from different DHC processes.