Holocene flood frequency across the Central Alps – solar forcing and evidence for variations in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation

The frequency of large-scale heavy precipitation events in the European Alps is expected to undergo substantial changes with current climate change. Hence, knowledge about the past natural variability of floods caused by heavy precipitation constitutes important input for climate projections. We present a comprehensive Holocene (10,000 years) reconstruction of the flood frequency in the Central European Alps combining 15 lacustrine sediment records. These records provide an extensive catalog of flood deposits, which were generated by flood-induced underflows delivering terrestrial material to the lake floors. The multi-archive approach allows suppressing local weather patterns, such as thunderstorms, from the obtained climate signal. We reconstructed mainly late spring to fall events since ice cover and precipitation in form of snow in winter at high-altitude study sites do inhibit the generation of flood layers. We found that flood frequency was higher during cool periods, coinciding with lows in solar activity. In addition, flood occurrence shows periodicities that are also observed in reconstructions of solar activity from C-14 and Be-10 records (2500-3000, 900-1200, as well as of about 710, 500, 350, 208 (Suess cycle), 150, 104 and 87 (Gleissberg cycle) years). As atmospheric mechanism, we propose an expansion/shrinking of the Hadley cell with increasing/decreasing air temperature, causing dry/wet conditions in Central Europe during phases of high/low solar activity. Furthermore, differences between the flood patterns from the Northern Alps and the Southern Alps indicate changes in North Atlantic circulation. Enhanced flood occurrence in the South compared to the North suggests a pronounced southward position of the Westerlies and/or blocking over the northern North Atlantic, hence resembling a negative NAO state (most distinct from 4.2 to 2.4 kyr BP and during the Little Ice Age). South-Alpine flood activity therefore provides a qualitative record of variations in a paleo-NAO pattern during the Holocene. Additionally, increased South Alpine flood activity contrasts to low precipitation in tropical Central America (Cariaco Basin) on the Holocene and centennial time scale. This observation is consistent with a Holocene southward migration of the Atlantic circulation system, and hence of the ITCZ, driven by decreasing summer insolation in the Northern hemisphere, as well as with shorter-term fluctuations probably driven by solar activity. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Challenges in the participatory assessment of sustainable management practices in dryland ecosystems under regime shifts

Regime shifts, defined as a radical and persistent reconfiguration of an ecosystem following a disturbance, have been acknowledged by scientists as a very important aspect of the dynamic of ecosystems. However, their consideration in land management planning remains marginal and limited to specific processes and systems. Current research focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data for specific environmental variables. These methods do not fulfill the needs of land managers, who are confronted with a multitude of processes and pressure types and require clear and simple strategies to prevent regime shift or to increase the resilience of their environment. The EU-FP7 CASCADE project is looking at regime shifts of dryland ecosystems in southern Europe and specifically focuses on rangeland and forest systems which are prone to various land degradation threats. One of the aims of the project is to evaluate the impact of different management practices on the dynamic of the environment in a participatory manner, including a multi-stakeholder evaluation of the state of the environment and of the management potential. To achieve this objective we have organized several stakeholder meetings and we have compiled a review of management practices using the WOCAT methodology, which enables merging scientific and land users knowledge. We highlight here the main challenges we have encountered in applying the notion of regime shift to real world socio-ecological systems and in translating related concepts such as tipping points, stable states, hysteresis and resilience to land managers, using concrete examples from CASCADE study sites. Secondly, we explore the advantages of including land users’ knowledge in the scientific understanding of regime shifts. Moreover, we discuss useful alternative concepts and lessons learnt that will allow us to build a participatory method for the assessment of resilient management practices in specific socio-ecological systems and to foster adaptive dryland management.

The Early Spörer Minimum – A Period of Extraordinary Climate and Socio-economic Changes in Western and Central Europe

Throughout the last millennium, mankind was affected by prolonged deviations from the climate mean state. While periods like the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century have been assessed in greater detail, earlier cold periods such as the 15th century received much less attention due to the sparse information available. Based on new evidence from different sources ranging from proxy archives to model simulations, it is now possible to provide an end-to-end assessment about the climate state during an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century, the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping these extreme climatic conditions, and the impacts on and responses of the medieval society in Central Europe. Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and human archives indicate that, during winter, the period of the early Spörer Minimum (1431–1440 CE) was the coldest decade in Central Europe in the 15th century. The particularly cold winters and normal but wet summers resulted in a strong seasonal cycle that challenged food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis, and a famine in parts of Europe. As a consequence, authorities implemented adaptation measures, such as the installation of grain storage capacities, in order to be prepared for future events. The 15th century is characterised by a grand solar minimum and enhanced volcanic activity, which both imply a reduction of seasonality. Climate model simulations show that periods with cold winters and strong seasonality are associated with internal climate variability rather than external forcing. Accordingly, it is hypothesised that the reconstructed extreme climatic conditions during this decade occurred by chance and in relation to the partly chaotic, internal variability within the climate system.

Desarrollo de estructuras nanofotonicas de campo cercano para intensificacion localizada de luz en celulas solares de banda intermedia - Near-field nanophotonic structures for localized light enhancement in intermediate band solar cells

This doctoral thesis explores some of the possibilities that near-field optics can bring to photovoltaics, and in particular to quantum-dot intermediate band solar cells (QD-IBSCs). Our main focus is the analytical optimization of the electric field distribution produced in the vicinity of single scattering particles, in order to produce the highest possible absorption enhancement in the photovoltaic medium in their surroundings. Near-field scattering structures have also been fabricated in laboratory, allowing the application of the previously studied theoretical concepts to real devices. We start by looking into the electrostatic scattering regime, which is only applicable to sub-wavelength sized particles. In this regime it was found that metallic nano-spheroids can produce absorption enhancements of about two orders of magnitude on the material in their vicinity, due to their strong plasmonic resonance. The frequency of such resonance can be tuned with the shape of the particles, allowing us to match it with the optimal transition energies of the intermediate band material. Since these metallic nanoparticles (MNPs) are to be inserted inside the cell photovoltaic medium, they should be coated by a thin insulating layer to prevent electron-hole recombination at their surface. This analysis is then generalized, using an analytical separation-of-variables method implemented in Mathematica7.0, to compute scattering by spheroids of any size and material. This code allowed the study of the scattering properties of wavelengthsized particles (mesoscopic regime), and it was verified that in this regime dielectric spheroids perform better than metallic. The light intensity scattered from such dielectric spheroids can have more than two orders of magnitude than the incident intensity, and the focal region in front of the particle can be shaped in several ways by changing the particle geometry and/or material. Experimental work was also performed in this PhD to implement in practice the concepts studied in the analysis of sub-wavelength MNPs. A wet-coating method was developed to self-assemble regular arrays of colloidal MNPs on the surface of several materials, such as silicon wafers, amorphous silicon films, gallium arsenide and glass. A series of thermal and chemical tests have been performed showing what treatments the nanoparticles can withstand for their embedment in a photovoltaic medium. MNPs arrays are then inserted in an amorphous silicon medium to study the effect of their plasmonic near-field enhancement on the absorption spectrum of the material. The self-assembled arrays of MNPs constructed in these experiments inspired a new strategy for fabricating IBSCs using colloidal quantum dots (CQDs). Such CQDs can be deposited in self-assembled monolayers, using procedures similar to those developed for the patterning of colloidal MNPs. The use of CQDs to form the intermediate band presents several important practical and physical advantages relative to the conventional dots epitaxially grown by the Stranski-Krastanov method. Besides, this provides a fast and inexpensive method for patterning binary arrays of QDs and MNPs, envisioned in the theoretical part of this thesis, in which the MNPs act as antennas focusing the light in the QDs and therefore boosting their absorption

Automatic detection of PV systems failures from monitoring validated on 10,000 BIPV systems in Europe

The installers and owners show a growing interest in the follow-up of the performance of their photovoltaic (PV) systems. The owners are requesting reliable sources of information to ensure that their system is functioning properly, and the installers are actively looking for efficient ways of providing them the most useful possible information from the data available. Policy makers are becoming increasingly interested in the knowledge of the real performance of PV systems and the most frequent sources of problems that they suffer to be able to target the identified challenges properly. The scientific and industrial PV community is also requiring an access to massive operational data to pursue the technological improvements further.

A free real-time hourly tilted solar irradiation data Website for Europe

The engineering of solar power applications, such as photovoltaic energy (PV) or thermal solar energy requires the knowledge of the solar resource available for the solar energy system. This solar resource is generally obtained from datasets, and is either measured by ground-stations, through the use of pyranometers, or by satellites. The solar irradiation data are generally not free, and their cost can be high, in particular if high temporal resolution is required, such as hourly data. In this work, we present an alternative method to provide free hourly global solar tilted irradiation data for the whole European territory through a web platform. The method that we have developed generates solar irradiation data from a combination of clear-sky simulations and weather conditions data. The results are publicly available for free through Soweda, a Web interface. To our knowledge, this is the first time that hourly solar irradiation data are made available online, in real-time, and for free, to the public. The accuracy of these data is not suitable for applications that require high data accuracy, but can be very useful for other applications that only require a rough estimate of solar irradiation.

Temperature of solar cells with regard to photoactive and non-photoactive light absorption in concentrator PV modules

A new method has recently been proposed by us for accurate measurement of the solar cell temperature in any operational regime, in particular, at a maximum power point (MPP) of the I-V curve (T-p-n(MPP)). For this, fast switching of a cell from MPP to open circuit (OC) regime is carried out and open circuit voltage V-oc is measured immediately (within about 1 millisecond), so that this value becomes to be an indicator of T-p-n(MPP). In the present work, we have considered a practical case, when a solar cell is heated not only by absorption of light incident upon its surface (called "photoactive" absorption of power), but also by heat transferred from structural elements surrounding the cell and heated by absorption of direct or diffused sunlight ("non-photoactive" absorption of power with respect to a solar cell). This process takes place in any concentrator module with non-ideal concentrators. Low overheating temperature of the p-n junction (or p-n junctions in a multijunction cell) is a cumulative parameter characterizing the quality of a solar module by the factor of heat removal effectiveness and, at the same time, by the factor of low "non-photoactive" losses.

Analisi di una simulazione aziendale svolta da Claudio D’Anna gruppo ufficio sinistri

Tesi di Claudio D'Anna sulla simulazione aziendale web-based: Business Game. Analisi delle giocate del gruppo UFFICIO SINISTRI collegate all'area di Marketing Operativo.

Modello di simulazione del processo di gestione ordini e di outbound in linguaggio Arena

La tesi ha l'obiettivo di analizzare e tradurre in un modello di simulazione il processo di evasione di ordini dal sito di stoccaggio di un’azienda di e-commerce al fine di valutarne le possibili evoluzioni. In prima analisi sono stati evidenziati i principali motivi che spingono i clienti a preferire gli store online rispetto a quelli fisici e come alcuni dei vantaggi siano il frutto dell’efficienza della gestione dell’outbound. Si è passati, quindi, all’esame del caso di studio, alla scomposizione delle singole fasi di lavorazione degli ordini e alla loro traduzione in linguaggio Arena. Il modello ottenuto è stato valutato grazie alla comparazione dei risultati di statistiche automatiche e manuali, frutto della simulazione, con i dati reali. La fase finale ha riguardato, invece, la valutazione in termini di efficienza di una possibile evoluzione del sistema che consiste nell’introduzione di un robot addetto al packing: il modello è stato modificato e le statistiche del caso as-is sono state confrontate con quelle frutto della nuova simulazione. Con i dati utilizzati è stato dimostrato come un unico robot garantisca prestazioni superiori rispetto allo stato attuale e risulti più che sufficiente per la mole di lavoro di una giornata tipo. Nei periodi dell’anno caratterizzati da un aumento esponenziale degli acquisti, tuttavia, potrebbe essere necessario affiancare alla soluzione automatica quella manuale.

Gestione del magazzino di un provider logistico: modello e simulazione in linguaggio Arena

La tesi si pone l'obiettivo di mappare le attività all'interno del magazzino di un operatore logistico, dalla consegna della merce da parte dei committenti, al flusso di ritorno dei pallet vuoti dai punti di consegna, attraverso la modellazione e la simulazione in linguaggio Arena. Dopo aver analizzato il ruolo e la posizione occupata da un provider logistico lungo la catena distributiva, è esposto il caso preso in considerazione, mediante lo studio dei committenti e dei punti di consegna serviti. Viene poi mappato nel dettaglio il processo di gestione all'interno del magazzino e approfonditi due aspetti principali: i costi di gestione e trasporto a carico dell'operatore e la gestione dei mezzi utilizzati per effettuare le consegne. Chiarito il sistema reale, si passa al modello in Arena. Al termine della simulazione, svoltasi in un adeguato orizzonte temporale, dall'analisi dei risultati sarà possibile trarre delle conclusioni al fine di migliorare l'efficienza del processo.

Economic Policy Voting and Incumbency: Unemployment in Western Europe

The economic voting literature has been dominated by the incumbency-oriented hypothesis, where voters reward or punish government at the ballot box according to economic performance. The alternative, policy-oriented hypothesis, where voters favor parties closest to their issue position, has been neglected in this literature. We explore policy voting with respect to an archetypal economic policy issue – unemployment. Voters who favor lower unemployment should tend to vote for left parties, since they “own” the issue. Examining a large time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) pool of Western European nations, we find some evidence for economic policy voting. However, it exists in a form conditioned by incumbency. According to varied tests, left incumbents actually experience a net electoral cost, if the unemployment rate climbs under their regime. Incumbency, then, serves to break any natural economic policy advantage that might accrue to the left due to the unemployment issue.

Az európai villamosenergia-árak központi szabályozásának hatása a fogyasztói árakra (The impacts of the price regulation on the level of retail electricity prices in Europe)

Az Európai Unión belül az elmúlt időszakban megerősödött a vita arról, vajon a Közösség versenyképességének javításához milyen módon és mértékben járulhat hozzá az ipari és lakossági fogyasztók számára kedvező áron elérhető villamos energia. Az uniós testületek elsődlegesen a verseny feltételeinek további javításában látják a versenyképesség javításának fő eszközét, ám egyesek az aktívabb központi szabályozás mellett érvelnek. A jelenleg alkalmazott európai szabályozási gyakorlat áttekintése, a szabályozási modellek és a piaci árak alakulásának vizsgálata hozzásegíthet, hogy következtetéseket vonjunk le a tagállami gyakorlatok tekintetében, vajon sikeresebb-e a központi ármegállapításon alapuló szabályozói mechanizmus, mint a liberalizált piacmodell. ______ There is a strengthening debate within the European Union in recent years about the impact of the affordable industrial and household electricity prices on the general competitiveness of European economies. While the European Institutions argues for the further liberalization of the energy retail sector, there are others who believe in centralization and price control to achieve lower energy prices. Current paper reviews the regulatory models of the European countries and examines the connection between the regulatory regime and consumer price trends. The analysis can help to answer, whether the bureaucratic central regulation or the liberalized market model seems more successful in supporting the competitiveness goals. Although the current regulatory practice is heterogeneous within the EU member states, there is a clear trend to decrease the role of regulated tariffs in the end-user prices. Our study did not find a general causal relationship between the regulatory regime and the level of consumer electricity prices in a country concerned. However, the quantitative analysis of the industrial and household energy prices by various segments detected significant differences between the regulated and free-market countries. The first group of member states tends to decrease the prices in the low-consuming household segments through cross-financing technics, including increased network tariffs and/or taxes for the high-consuming segments and for industrial consumers. One of the major challenges of the regulatory authorities is to find the proper way of sharing these burdens proportionally with minimizing the market-distorting effects of the cross-subsidization between the different stakeholder groups.

Examining the process of regime change in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization: The divide between rhetoric and reality

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a product of the Cold War through which its members organized their military forces for the purpose of collective defense against the common threat of Soviet-backed aggression. Employing the terminology of regime theory, the creation of NATO can be viewed as the introduction of an international security regime. Throughout the Cold War, NATO member states preserved their commitment to mutual defense while increasingly engaging in activities aimed at overcoming the division of Europe and promoting regional stability. The end of the Cold War has served as the catalyst for a new period of regime change as the Alliance introduced elements of a collective security regime by expanding its mandate to address new security challenges and reorganizing both its political and military organizational structures. ^ This research involves an interpretive analysis of NATO's evolution applying ideal theoretical constructs associated with distinct approaches to regime analysis. The process of regime change is investigated over several periods throughout the history of the Alliance in an effort to understand the Alliance's changing commitment to collective security. This research involves a review of regime theory literature, consisting of an examination of primary source documentation, including official documents and treaties, as well as a review of numerous secondary sources. This review is organized around a typology of power-based, organization-based, and norm-based approaches to regime analysis. This dissertation argues that the process of regime change within NATO is best understood by examining factors associated with multiple theoretical constructs. Relevant factors provide insights into the practice of collective security among NATO member states within Europe, while accounting for the inability of the NATO allies to build on the experience gained within Europe to play a more central role in operations outside of this region. This research contributes to a greater understanding of the nature of international regimes and the process of regime change, while offering recommendations aimed at increasing NATO's viability as a source of greater security and more meaningful international cooperation.^