Trait components provide tools to dissect the genetic susceptibility of migraine

The commonly used "end diagnosis" phenotype that is adopted in linkage and association studies of complex traits is likely to represent an oversimplified model of the genetic background of a disease. This is also likely to be the case for common types of migraine, for which no convincingly associated genetic variants have been reported. In headache disorders, most genetic studies have used end diagnoses of the International Headache Society (IHS) classification as phenotypes. Here, we introduce an alternative strategy; we use trait components--individual clinical symptoms of migraine--to determine affection status in genomewide linkage analyses of migraine-affected families. We identified linkage between several traits and markers on chromosome 4q24 (highest LOD score under locus heterogeneity [HLOD] 4.52), a locus we previously reported to be linked to the end diagnosis migraine with aura. The pulsation trait identified a novel locus on 17p13 (HLOD 4.65). Additionally, a trait combination phenotype (IHS full criteria) revealed a locus on 18q12 (HLOD 3.29), and the age at onset trait revealed a locus on 4q28 (HLOD 2.99). Furthermore, suggestive or nearly suggestive evidence of linkage to four additional loci was observed with the traits phonophobia (10q22) and aggravation by physical exercise (12q21, 15q14, and Xp21), and, interestingly, these loci have been linked to migraine in previous studies. Our findings suggest that the use of symptom components of migraine instead of the end diagnosis provides a useful tool in stratifying the sample for genetic studies.

Economic aspects of post-border weed risk management

Aim: Decision-making in weed management involves consideration of limited budgets, long time horizons, conflicting priorities, and as a result, trade-offs. Economics provides tools that allow these issues to be addressed and is thus integral to management of the risks posed by weeds. One of the critical issues in weed risk management during the early stages of an invasion concerns feasibility of eradication. We briefly review how economics may be used in weed risk management, concentrating on this management strategy. Location: Australia. Methods: A range of innovative studies that investigate aspects of weed risk management are reviewed. We show how these could be applied to newly invading weeds, focussing on methods for investigating eradication feasibility. In particular, eradication feasibility is analysed in terms of cost and duration of an eradication programme, using a simulation model based on field-derived parameter values for chromolaena, Chromolaena odorata. Results: The duration of an eradication programme can be reduced by investing in progressively higher amounts of search effort per hectare, but increasing search area will become relatively more expensive as search effort increases. When variation in survey and control success is taken into account, increasing search effort also reduces uncertainty around the required duration of the eradication programme. Main conclusions: Economics is integral to the management of the risks posed by weeds. Decision analysis, based on economic principles, is now commonly used to tackle key issues that confront weed managers. For eradication feasibility, duration and cost of a weed eradication programme are critical components; the dimensions of both factors can usefully be estimated through simulation. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sustainable management for rangelands in a variable climate: evidence and insights from northern Australia

Inter-annual rainfall variability is a major challenge to sustainable and productive grazing management on rangelands. In Australia, rainfall variability is particularly pronounced and failure to manage appropriately leads to major economic loss and environmental degradation. Recommended strategies to manage sustainably include stocking at long-term carrying capacity (LTCC) or varying stock numbers with forage availability. These strategies are conceptually simple but difficult to implement, given the scale and spatial heterogeneity of grazing properties and the uncertainty of the climate. This paper presents learnings and insights from northern Australia gained from research and modelling on managing for rainfall variability. A method to objectively estimate LTCC in large, heterogeneous paddocks is discussed, and guidelines and tools to tactically adjust stocking rates are presented. The possible use of seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) in management is also considered. Results from a 13-year grazing trial in Queensland show that constant stocking at LTCC was far more profitable and largely maintained land condition compared with heavy stocking (HSR). Variable stocking (VAR) with or without the use of SCF was marginally more profitable, but income variability was greater and land condition poorer than constant stocking at LTCC. Two commercial scale trials in the Northern Territory with breeder cows highlighted the practical difficulties of variable stocking and provided evidence that heavier pasture utilisation rates depress reproductive performance. Simulation modelling across a range of regions in northern Australia also showed a decline in resource condition and profitability under heavy stocking rates. Modelling further suggested that the relative value of variable v. constant stocking depends on stocking rate and land condition. Importantly, variable stocking may possibly allow slightly higher stocking rates without pasture degradation. Enterprise-level simulations run for breeder herds nevertheless show that poor economic performance can occur under constant stocking and even under variable stocking in some circumstances. Modelling and research results both suggest that a form of constrained flexible stocking should be applied to manage for climate variability. Active adaptive management and research will be required as future climate changes make managing for rainfall variability increasingly challenging.

Monte Carlo simulation of mictomagnets

Monte Carlo simulations of a binary alloy with impurity concentrations between 20 and 45 at.% have been carried out. The proportion of large clusters relative to that of small clusters increases with the number of MC diffusion steps as well as impurity concentration. Magnetic susceptibility peaks become more prominent and occur at higher temperatures with increasing impurity concentration. The different peaks in the susceptibility and specific heat curves seem to correspond to different sized clusters. A freezing model would explain the observed behaviour with the large clusters freezing first and the small clusters contributing to susceptibility (specific heat) peaks at lower temperatures.

Structure, energetics and diffusion properties of isomers of trimethyl benzene in beta zeolite: Uptake and Monte Carlo simulation study

A Monte Carlo study along with experimental uptake measurements of 1,2,3-trimethyl benzene, 1,2,4-trimethyl benzene and 1,3,5-trimethyl benzene (TMB) in beta zeolite is reported. The TraPPE potential has been employed for hydrocarbon interaction and harmonic potential of Demontis for modeling framework of the zeolite. Structure, energetics and dynamics of TMB in zeolite beta from Monte Carlo runs reveal interesting information about the diameter, properties of these isomers on confinement. Of the three isomers, 135TMB is supposed to have the largest diameter. It is seen TraPPE with Demontis potential predicts a restricted motion of 135TMB in the channels of zeolite beta.Experimentally, 135TMB has the highest transport diffusivity whereas MID results suggest this has the lowest self diffusivity. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. Ail rights reserved.

Dynamic Digital Simulation of HVDC Systems Using a Novel Modular Converter Model

This paper describes a method for the dynamic digital simulation of HVDC transmission systems. The method employs a novel modular converter representation during both normal and abnormal conditions.

Very-high-Q inductor simulation for active tuned filters

Abstract is not available.

Issues of Digital Ecosystems Approach to Biological Ecosystem Simulation Model Fit Optimization

This study examines the application of digital ecosystems concepts to a biological ecosystem simulation problem. The problem involves the use of a digital ecosystem agent to optimize the accuracy of a second digital ecosystem agent, the biological ecosystem simulation. The study also incorporates social ecosystems, with a technological solution design subsystem communicating with a science subsystem and simulation software developer subsystem to determine key characteristics of the biological ecosystem simulation. The findings show similarities between the issues involved in digital ecosystem collaboration and those occurring when digital ecosystems interact with biological ecosystems. The results also suggest that even precise semantic descriptions and comprehensive ontologies may be insufficient to describe agents in enough detail for use within digital ecosystems, and a number of solutions to this problem are proposed.

Assessing the sustainability of wheat-based cropping systems using simulation modelling: sustainability

Concepts of agricultural sustainability and possible roles of simulation modelling for characterising sustainability were explored by conducting, and reflecting on, a sustainability assessment of rain-fed wheat-based systems in the Middle East and North Africa region. We designed a goal-oriented, model-based framework using the cropping systems model Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM). For the assessment, valid (rather than true or false) sustainability goals and indicators were identified for the target system. System-specific vagueness was depicted in sustainability polygons-a system property derived from highly quantitative data-and denoted using descriptive quantifiers. Diagnostic evaluations of alternative tillage practices demonstrated the utility of the framework to quantify key bio-physical and chemical constraints to sustainability. Here, we argue that sustainability is a vague, emergent system property of often wicked complexity that arises out of more fundamental elements and processes. A 'wicked concept of sustainability' acknowledges the breadth of the human experience of sustainability, which cannot be internalised in a model. To achieve socially desirable sustainability goals, our model-based approach can inform reflective evaluation processes that connect with the needs and values of agricultural decision-makers. Hence, it can help to frame meaningful discussions, from which actions might emerge.

Identifying risk-efficient strategies using stochastic frontier analysis and simulation: An application to irrigated cropping in Australia

In irrigated cropping, as with any other industry, profit and risk are inter-dependent. An increase in profit would normally coincide with an increase in risk, and this means that risk can be traded for profit. It is desirable to manage a farm so that it achieves the maximum possible profit for the desired level of risk. This paper identifies risk-efficient cropping strategies that allocate land and water between crop enterprises for a case study of an irrigated farm in Southern Queensland, Australia. This is achieved by applying stochastic frontier analysis to the output of a simulation experiment. The simulation experiment involved changes to the levels of business risk by systematically varying the crop sowing rules in a bioeconomic model of the case study farm. This model utilises the multi-field capability of the process based Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) and is parameterised using data collected from interviews with a collaborating farmer. We found sowing rules that increased the farm area sown to cotton caused the greatest increase in risk-efficiency. Increasing maize area also improved risk-efficiency but to a lesser extent than cotton. Sowing rules that increased the areas sown to wheat reduced the risk-efficiency of the farm business. Sowing rules were identified that had the potential to improve the expected farm profit by ca. $50,000 Annually, without significantly increasing risk. The concept of the shadow price of risk is discussed and an expression is derived from the estimated frontier equation that quantifies the trade-off between profit and risk.

Status, challenges and tools for identification and diagnosis of Peronosclerospora and Sclerophthora of regulatory concern for graminicolous crops

Graminicolous Downy Mildew (GDM) diseases caused by the genera Peronosclerospora (13 spp.) and Sclerophthora (6 spp. and 1 variety) are poorly studied but destructive diseases of major crops such as corn, sorghum, sugarcane and other graminoids. Eight of the 13 described Peronosclerospora spp. are able to infect corn. In particular, P. philippinensis (= P. sacchari), P. maydis, P. heteropogonis, and S. rayssiae var. zeae cause major losses in corn yields in tropical Asia. In 2012 a new species, P. australiensis, was described based on isolates previously identified as P. maydis in Australia; this species is now a pathogen of major concern. Despite the strong impact of GDM diseases, there are presently no reliable molecular methods available for their detection. GDM pathogens are among the most difficult Oomycetes to identify using molecular tools, as their taxonomy is very challenging, and little genetic sequence data are available for development of molecular tools to detect GDM pathogens to species level. For example, from over 15 genes used in identification, diagnostics or phylogeny of Phytophthora, only ITS1 and cox2 show promise for use with GDM pathogens. Multiplex/multigene conventional and qPCR assays are currently under evaluation for the detection of economically important GDM spp. Scientists from the USA, Germany, Canada, Australia, and the Philippines are collaborating on the development and testing of diagnostic tools for these pathogens of concern.

Resting pastures to improve land condition in northern Australia: guidelines based on the literature and simulation modelling

Pasture rest is a possible strategy for improving land condition in the extensive grazing lands of northern Australia. If pastures currently in poor condition could be improved, then overall animal productivity and the sustainability of grazing could be increased. The scientific literature is examined to assess the strength of the experimental information to support and guide the use of pasture rest, and simulation modelling is undertaken to extend this information to a broader range of resting practices, growing conditions and initial pasture condition. From this, guidelines are developed that can be applied in the management of northern Australia’s grazing lands and also serve as hypotheses for further field experiments. The literature on pasture rest is diverse but there is a paucity of data from much of northern Australia as most experiments have been conducted in southern and central parts of Queensland. Despite this, the limited experimental information and the results from modelling were used to formulate the following guidelines. Rest during the growing season gives the most rapid improvement in the proportion of perennial grasses in pastures; rest during the dormant winter period is ineffective in increasing perennial grasses in a pasture but may have other benefits. Appropriate stocking rates are essential to gain the greatest benefit from rest: if stocking rates are too high, then pasture rest will not lead to improvement; if stocking rates are low, pastures will tend to improve without rest. The lower the initial percentage of perennial grasses, the more frequent the rests should be to give a major improvement within a reasonable management timeframe. Conditions during the growing season also have an impact on responses with the greatest improvement likely to be in years of good growing conditions. The duration and frequency of rest periods can be combined into a single value expressed as the proportion of time during which resting occurs; when this is done the modelling suggests the greater the proportion of time that a pasture is rested, the greater is the improvement but this needs to be tested experimentally. These guidelines should assist land managers to use pasture resting but the challenge remains to integrate pasture rest with other pasture and animal management practices at the whole-property scale.

Modelling the manager: Representing rule-based management in farming systems simulation models

We trace the evolution of the representation of management in cropping and grazing systems models, from fixed annual schedules of identical actions in single paddocks toward flexible scripts of rules. Attempts to define higher-level organizing concepts in management policies, and to analyse them to identify optimal plans, have focussed on questions relating to grazing management owing to its inherent complexity. “Rule templates” assist the re-use of complex management scripts by bundling commonly-used collections of rules with an interface through which key parameters can be input by a simulation builder. Standard issues relating to parameter estimation and uncertainty apply to management sub-models and need to be addressed. Techniques for embodying farmers' expectations and plans for the future within modelling analyses need to be further developed, especially better linking planning- and rule-based approaches to farm management and analysing the ways that managers can learn.

Efficient simulation of unsaturated flow in heterogeneous soils using an exponential integrator

- Provided a practical variable-stepsize implementation of the exponential Euler method (EEM). - Introduced a new second-order variant of the scheme that enables the local error to be estimated at the cost of a single additional function evaluation. - New EEM implementation outperformed sophisticated implementations of the backward differentiation formulae (BDF) of order 2 and was competitive with BDF of order 5 for moderate to high tolerances.