Benchmarking analogue models of brittle thrust wedges

We performed a quantitative comparison of brittle thrust wedge experiments to evaluate the variability among analogue models and to appraise the reproducibility and limits of model interpretation. Fifteen analogue modeling laboratories participated in this benchmark initiative. Each laboratory received a shipment of the same type of quartz and corundum sand and all laboratories adhered to a stringent model building protocol and used the same type of foil to cover base and sidewalls of the sandbox. Sieve structure, sifting height, filling rate, and details on off-scraping of excess sand followed prescribed procedures. Our analogue benchmark shows that even for simple plane-strain experiments with prescribed stringent model construction techniques, quantitative model results show variability, most notably for surface slope, thrust spacing and number of forward and backthrusts. One of the sources of the variability in model results is related to slight variations in how sand is deposited in the sandbox. Small changes in sifting height, sifting rate, and scraping will result in slightly heterogeneous material bulk densities, which will affect the mechanical properties of the sand, and will result in lateral and vertical differences in peak and boundary friction angles, as well as cohesion values once the model is constructed. Initial variations in basal friction are inferred to play the most important role in causing model variability. Our comparison shows that the human factor plays a decisive role, and even when one modeler repeats the same experiment, quantitative model results still show variability. Our observations highlight the limits of up-scaling quantitative analogue model results to nature or for making comparisons with numerical models. The frictional behavior of sand is highly sensitive to small variations in material state or experimental set-up, and hence, it will remain difficult to scale quantitative results such as number of thrusts, thrust spacing, and pop-up width from model to nature.

Effect of locally increased zinc contents on zinc transport from the flag leaf lamina to the maturing grains of wheat

From previous experiments, it was evident that the accumulation of zinc in maturing wheat grains is highly regulated, but the regulatory mechanisms involved are not yet identified. In this study, we determined the transfer of radiolabelled zinc (fed directly into a leaf flap) from the flag leaf lamina to the grains. We also determined how this zinc transfer was affected by feeding additional unlabeled zinc (1 μmol per plant) either into the flag leaf sheath or the peduncle. Most of the 65Zn was retained in the feeding flap. A high percentage of the zinc exported from the flap accumulated in the grains with little accumulation of radiolabel in the other parts of the shoot. Unlabeled zinc remained mainly in the feeding flap and in the parts reached by the transpiration stream from the feeding position. The transfer of radiolabelled zinc was essentially not influenced by unlabeled zinc fed into another plant part. Our results suggest that the loading of zinc into the phloem and the mass flow in the sieve tubes might regulate zinc redistribution within the wheat shoot.

Dois ensaios em finanças

In the first chapter, we test some stochastic volatility models using options on the S&P 500 index. First, we demonstrate the presence of a short time-scale, on the order of days, and a long time-scale, on the order of months, in the S&P 500 volatility process using the empirical structure function, or variogram. This result is consistent with findings of previous studies. The main contribution of our paper is to estimate the two time-scales in the volatility process simultaneously by using nonlinear weighted least-squares technique. To test the statistical significance of the rates of mean-reversion, we bootstrap pairs of residuals using the circular block bootstrap of Politis and Romano (1992). We choose the block-length according to the automatic procedure of Politis and White (2004). After that, we calculate a first-order correction to the Black-Scholes prices using three different first-order corrections: (i) a fast time scale correction; (ii) a slow time scale correction; and (iii) a multiscale (fast and slow) correction. To test the ability of our model to price options, we simulate options prices using five different specifications for the rates or mean-reversion. We did not find any evidence that these asymptotic models perform better, in terms of RMSE, than the Black-Scholes model. In the second chapter, we use Brazilian data to compute monthly idiosyncratic moments (expected skewness, realized skewness, and realized volatility) for equity returns and assess whether they are informative for the cross-section of future stock returns. Since there is evidence that lagged skewness alone does not adequately forecast skewness, we estimate a cross-sectional model of expected skewness that uses additional predictive variables. Then, we sort stocks each month according to their idiosyncratic moments, forming quintile portfolios. We find a negative relationship between higher idiosyncratic moments and next-month stock returns. The trading strategy that sells stocks in the top quintile of expected skewness and buys stocks in the bottom quintile generates a significant monthly return of about 120 basis points. Our results are robust across sample periods, portfolio weightings, and to Fama and French (1993)’s risk adjustment factors. Finally, we identify a return reversal of stocks with high idiosyncratic skewness. Specifically, stocks with high idiosyncratic skewness have high contemporaneous returns. That tends to reverse, resulting in negative abnormal returns in the following month.

(Table 2) Planktic foraminifera and their diversity indices of sediment surface samples from the Atlantic Ocean

Species distribution patterns in planktonic foraminiferal assemblages are fundamental to the understanding of the determinants of their ecology. Until now, data used to identify such distribution patterns was mainly acquired using the standard >150 µm sieve size. However, given that assemblage shell size-range in planktonic foraminifera is not constant, this data acquisition practice could introduce artefacts in the distributional data. Here, we investigated the link between assemblage shell size-range and diversity in Recent planktonic foraminifera by analysing multiple sieve-size fractions in 12 samples spanning all bioprovinces of the Atlantic Ocean. Using five diversity indices covering various aspects of community structure, we found that counts from the >63 µm fraction in polar oceans and the >125 µm elsewhere sufficiently approximate maximum diversity in all Recent assemblages. Diversity values based on counts from the >150 µm fraction significantly underestimate maximum diversity in the polar and surprisingly also in the tropical provinces. Although the new methodology changes the shape of the diversity/sea-surface temperature (SST) relationship, its strength appears unaffected. Our analysis reveals that increasing diversity in planktonic foraminiferal assemblages is coupled with a progressive addition of larger species that have distinct, offset shell-size distributions. Thus, the previously documented increase in overall assemblage shell size-range towards lower latitudes is linked to an expanding shell-size disparity between species from the same locality. This observation supports the idea that diversity and shell size-range disparity in foraminiferal assemblages are the result of niche separation. Increasing SST leads to enhanced surface water stratification and results in vertical niche separation, which permits ecological specialisation. Specific deviations from the overall diversity and shell-size disparity latitudinal pattern are seen in regions of surface-water instability, indicating that coupled shell-size and diversity measurements could be used to reconstruct water column structures of past oceans.

Abundance estimates for landbirds and seabirds extracted and compiled from annual reports of the Skokholm bird observatory

Long-term ecological data are essential for conservation and to monitor and evaluate the effects of environmental change. Bird populations have been routinely assessed on islands off the British coast for many years and here long term data for one such island, Skokholm, is evaluated for robustness in the light of some 20 changes in observers (wardens) on the island over nearly eight decades. It was found that the dataset was robust when compared to bootstrap data with no species showing significant changes in abundance in years when wardens changed. It is concluded that the breeding bird populations on Skokholm and other British offshore islands are an important scientific resource and that protocols should be enacted to ensure the archiving of records, the continuance of data collection using standardised protocols into the future, and the recognition of such long-term data for science in terms of an appropriate conservation designation.

Grain size analysis on core plugs of sediment core CRP-1 (Table 1, 2)

Twenty four core samples from CRP-1, seven from Quaternary strata (20-43.55 meters below sea floor or mbsf) and seventeen from early Miocene strata (43.55 to 147.69 mbsf), have been analysed for their grain-size distribution using standard sieve and Sedigraph techniques. The results are in good agreement with estimates of texture made as part of the visual core description for the 1 :20 core logs for CRP-1 (Cape Roberts Science Team, 1998). Interpretation of the analyses presented here takes into account the likely setting of the site in Quaternary times as it is today, with CRP-1 high on the landward flank of a well-defined submarine ridge rising several hundred metres above basins on either side. In contrast, seismic geometries for strata deposited in early Miocene times indicate a generally planar sea floor dipping gently seaward. Fossils from these strata indicate shallow water depths (< 100 m), indicating the possibility that waves and tidal currents may have influenced sea floor sediments. The sediments analysed here are considered in terms of 3 textural facies: diamict, mud (silt and clay) and sand. Most of the Quaternary section but only 30% of the early Miocene section is diamict, a poorly sorted mixture of sand and mud with scattered clasts, indicating little wave or current influence on its texture. Although not definitive, diamict textures and other features suggest that the sediment originated as basal glacial debris but has been subsequently modified by minor winnowing, consistent with the field interpretation of this facies as ice-proximal and distal glaciomarine sediment. Sediments deposited directly from glacier ice appear to be lacking. Mud facies sediments, which comprise only 10% of the Quaternary section but a third of the early Miocene section, were deposited below wave base and largely from suspension, and show features (described elsewhere in this volume) indicative of the influence of both glacial and sediment gravity flow processes. Sand facies sediments have a considerable proportion of mud, normally more than 20%, but a well-sorted fine-very fine sand fraction. In the context of the early Miocene coastal setting we interpret these sediments as shoreface sands close to wave base.

SPECTRAL DOMAIN-OPTICAL COHERENCE TOMOGRAPHY IMAGE CONTRAST AND BACKGROUND COLOR SETTINGS INFLUENCE IDENTIFICATION OF RETINAL STRUCTURES.

PURPOSE To evaluate image contrast and color setting on assessment of retinal structures and morphology in spectral-domain optical coherence tomography. METHODS Two hundred and forty-eight Spectralis spectral-domain optical coherence tomography B-scans of 62 patients were analyzed by 4 readers. B-scans were extracted in 4 settings: W + N = white background with black image at normal contrast 9; W + H = white background with black image at maximum contrast 16; B + N = black background with white image at normal contrast 12; B + H = black background with white image at maximum contrast 16. Readers analyzed the images to identify morphologic features. Interreader correlation was calculated. Differences between Fleiss-kappa correlation coefficients were examined using bootstrap method. Any setting with significantly higher correlation coefficient was deemed superior for evaluating specific features. RESULTS Correlation coefficients differed among settings. No single setting was superior for all respective spectral-domain optical coherence tomography parameters (P = 0.3773). Some variables showed no differences among settings. Hard exudates and subretinal fluid were best seen with B + H (κ = 0.46, P = 0.0237 and κ = 0.78, P = 0.002). Microaneurysms were best seen with W + N (κ = 0.56, P = 0.025). Vitreomacular interface, enhanced transmission signal, and epiretinal membrane were best identified using all color/contrast settings together (κ = 0.44, P = 0.042, κ = 0.57, P = 0.01, and κ = 0.62, P ≤ 0.0001). CONCLUSION Contrast and background affect the evaluation of retinal structures on spectral-domain optical coherence tomography images. No single setting was superior for all features, though certain changes were best seen with specific settings.

Modeling Depression Progression Dynamics from Electronic Health Record

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Reliability measures for local nodes assessment in classification trees

Most of the modem developments with classification trees are aimed at improving their predictive capacity. This article considers a curiously neglected aspect of classification trees, namely the reliability of predictions that come from a given classification tree. In the sense that a node of a tree represents a point in the predictor space in the limit, the aim of this article is the development of localized assessment of the reliability of prediction rules. A classification tree may be used either to provide a probability forecast, where for each node the membership probabilities for each class constitutes the prediction, or a true classification where each new observation is predictively assigned to a unique class. Correspondingly, two types of reliability measure will be derived-namely, prediction reliability and classification reliability. We use bootstrapping methods as the main tool to construct these measures. We also provide a suite of graphical displays by which they may be easily appreciated. In addition to providing some estimate of the reliability of specific forecasts of each type, these measures can also be used to guide future data collection to improve the effectiveness of the tree model. The motivating example we give has a binary response, namely the presence or absence of a species of Eucalypt, Eucalyptus cloeziana, at a given sampling location in response to a suite of environmental covariates, (although the methods are not restricted to binary response data).

Performance of hydrophobic and hydrophilic silica membrane reactors for the water gas shift reaction

In this study, a novel molecular sieve silica (MSS) membrane packed bed reactor (PBR) using a Cu/ZnO/Al2O3 catalyst was applied to the low-temperature water gas shift reaction (WGS). Best permeation results were H-2 permeances of 1.5 x 10(-6) mol(.)s(-1) m(-2) Pa-1, H-2/CO2 selectivities of 8 and H-2/N-2 selectivities of 18. It was shown that an operation with a sweep gas flow of 80 cm 3 min(-1), a feed flow rate of 50 cm(3) min(-1) and a H2O/CO molar ratio of one at 280 degreesC reached a 99% CO conversion. This is well above the thermodynamic equilibrium and achievable PBR conversion. Hydrophilic membranes underwent pore widening during the reaction while hydrophobic membranes indicated no such behaviour and also showed increased H-2 permeation with temperature, a characteristic of activated transport. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization of carbon molecular sieves using methane and carbon dioxide as adsorptive probes

Nitrogen adsorption at 77 K is the current standard means for pore size determination of adsorbent materials. However, nitrogen adsorption reaches limitations when dealing with materials such as molecular sieving carbon with a high degree of ultramicroporosity. In this investigation, methane and carbon dioxide adsorption is explored as a possible alternative to the standard nitrogen probe. Methane and carbon dioxide adsorption equilibria and kinetics are measured in a commercially derived carbon molecular sieve over a range of temperatures. The pore size distribution is determined from the adsorption equilibrium, and the kinetics of adsorption is shown to be Fickian for carbon dioxide and non-Fickian for methane. The non-Fickian response is attributed to transport resistance at the pore mouth experienced by the methane molecules but not by the carbon dioxide molecules. Additionally, the change in the rate of adsorption with loading is characterized by the Darken relation in the case of carbon dioxide diffusion but is greater than that predicted by the Darken relation for methane transport. Furthermore, the proposition of inkbottle-shaped micropores in molecular sieving carbon is supported by the determination of the activation energy for the transport of methane and subsequent sizing of the pore-mouth barrier by molecular potential calculations.

Validation of a food-frequency questionnaire assessment of carotenoid and vitamin E intake using weighed food records and plasma biomarkers: The method of triads model

Background: Reliability or validity studies are important for the evaluation of measurement error in dietary assessment methods. An approach to validation known as the method of triads uses triangulation techniques to calculate the validity coefficient of a food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Objective: To assess the validity of an FFQ estimates of carotenoid and vitamin E intake against serum biomarker measurements and weighed food records (WFRs), by applying the method of triads. Design: The study population was a sub-sample of adult participants in a randomised controlled trial of beta-carotene and sunscreen in the prevention of skin cancer. Dietary intake was assessed by a self-administered FFQ and a WFR. Nonfasting blood samples were collected and plasma analysed for five carotenoids (alpha-carotene, beta-carotene, beta-cryptoxanthin, lutein, lycopene) and vitamin E. Correlation coefficients were calculated between each of the dietary methods and the validity coefficient was calculated using the method of triads. The 95% confidence intervals for the validity coefficients were estimated using bootstrap sampling. Results: The validity coefficients of the FFQ were highest for alpha-carotene (0.85) and lycopene (0.62), followed by beta- carotene (0.55) and total carotenoids (0.55), while the lowest validity coefficient was for lutein (0.19). The method of triads could not be used for b- cryptoxanthin and vitamin E, as one of the three underlying correlations was negative. Conclusions: Results were similar to other studies of validity using biomarkers and the method of triads. For many dietary factors, the upper limit of the validity coefficients was less than 0.5 and therefore only strong relationships between dietary exposure and disease will be detected.

Postsynthesis stabilization of free-standing mesoporous silica films

Mixed ammonia-water vapor postsynthesis treatment provides a simple and convenient method for stabilizing mesostructured silica films. X-ray diffraction, transmission electron microscopy, nitrogen adsorption/desorption, and solid-state NMR (C-13, Si-29) were applied to study the effects of mixed ammonia-water vapor at 90 degreesC on the mesostructure of the films. An increased cross-linking of the silica network was observed. Subsequent calcination of the silica films was seen to cause a bimodal pore-size distribution, with an accompanying increase in the volume and surface area ratios of the primary (d = 3 nm) to secondary (d = 5-30 nm) pores. Additionally, mixed ammonia-water treatment was observed to cause a narrowing of the primary pore-size distribution. These findings have implications for thin film based applications and devices, such as sensors, membranes, or surfaces for heterogeneous catalysis.

Advantage of single-trial models for response to selection in wheat breeding multi-environment trials

An investigation was conducted to evaluate the impact of experimental designs and spatial analyses (single-trial models) of the response to selection for grain yield in the northern grains region of Australia (Queensland and northern New South Wales). Two sets of multi-environment experiments were considered. One set, based on 33 trials conducted from 1994 to 1996, was used to represent the testing system of the wheat breeding program and is referred to as the multi-environment trial (MET). The second set, based on 47 trials conducted from 1986 to 1993, sampled a more diverse set of years and management regimes and was used to represent the target population of environments (TPE). There were 18 genotypes in common between the MET and TPE sets of trials. From indirect selection theory, the phenotypic correlation coefficient between the MET and TPE single-trial adjusted genotype means [r(p(MT))] was used to determine the effect of the single-trial model on the expected indirect response to selection for grain yield in the TPE based on selection in the MET. Five single-trial models were considered: randomised complete block (RCB), incomplete block (IB), spatial analysis (SS), spatial analysis with a measurement error (SSM) and a combination of spatial analysis and experimental design information to identify the preferred (PF) model. Bootstrap-resampling methodology was used to construct multiple MET data sets, ranging in size from 2 to 20 environments per MET sample. The size and environmental composition of the MET and the single-trial model influenced the r(p(MT)). On average, the PF model resulted in a higher r(p(MT)) than the IB, SS and SSM models, which were in turn superior to the RCB model for MET sizes based on fewer than ten environments. For METs based on ten or more environments, the r(p(MT)) was similar for all single-trial models.

Multicomponent adsorption on activated carbons under supercritical conditions

Adsorption of binary mixtures onto activated carbon Norit R1 for the system nitrogen-methane-carbon dioxide was investigated over the pressure range up to 15 MPa. A new model is proposed to describe the experimental data. It is based on the assumption that an activated carbon can be characterized by the distribution function of elements of adsorption volume (EAV) over the solid-fluid potential. This function may be evaluated from pure component isotherms using the equality of the chemical potentials in the adsorbed phase and in the bulk phase for each EAV. In the case of mixture adsorption a simple combining rule is proposed, which allows determining the adsorbed phase density and its composition in the EAV at given pressure and compositions of the bulk phase. The adsorbed concentration of each adsorbate is the integral of its density over the set of EAV. The comparison with experimental data on binary mixtures has shown that the approach works reasonably well. In the case of high-pressure binary mixture adsorption, when only total amount adsorbed was measured, the proposed model allows reliably determining partial amounts of the adsorbed components. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.