Advancing polar prediction capabilities on daily to seasonal time scales

It is argued that existing polar prediction systems do not yet meet users’ needs; and possible ways forward in advancing prediction capacity in polar regions and beyond are outlined. The polar regions have been attracting more and more attention in recent years, fuelled by the perceptible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Polar climate change provides new opportunities, such as shorter shipping routes between Europe and East Asia, but also new risks such as the potential for industrial accidents or emergencies in ice-covered seas. Here, it is argued that environmental prediction systems for the polar regions are less developed than elsewhere. There are many reasons for this situation, including the polar regions being (historically) lower priority, with less in situ observations, and with numerous local physical processes that are less well-represented by models. By contrasting the relative importance of different physical processes in polar and lower latitudes, the need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is illustrated. Research priorities are identified that will help to advance environmental polar prediction capabilities. Examples include an improvement of the polar observing system; the use of coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean models, even for short-term prediction; and insight into polar-lower latitude linkages and their role for forecasting. Given the enormity of some of the challenges ahead, in a harsh and remote environment such as the polar regions, it is argued that rapid progress will only be possible with a coordinated international effort. More specifically, it is proposed to hold a Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 in which the international research and operational forecasting community will work together with stakeholders in a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and educational activities.

Seasonal patterns of viral and bacterial infections among children hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia in a tropical region

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a common cause of morbidity among children. Evidence on seasonality, especially on the frequency of viral and bacterial causative agents is scarce; such information may be useful in an era of changing climate conditions worldwide. To analyze the frequency of distinct infections, meteorological indicators and seasons in children hospitalized for CAP in Salvador, Brazil, nasopharyngeal aspirate and blood were collected from 184 patients aged < 5 y over a 21-month period. Fourteen microbes were investigated and 144 (78%) cases had the aetiology established. Significant differences were found in air temperature between spring and summer (p = 0.02) or winter (p < 0.001), summer and fall (p = 0.007) or winter (p < 0.001), fall and winter (p = 0.002), and on precipitation between spring and fall (p = 0.01). Correlations were found between: overall viral infections and relative humidity (p = 0.006; r = 0.6) or precipitation (p = 0.03; r = 0.5), parainfluenza and precipitation (p = 0.02; r = -0.5), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and air temperature (p = 0.048; r = -0.4) or precipitation (p = 0.045; r = 0.4), adenovirus and precipitation (p = 0.02; r = 0.5), pneumococcus and air temperature (p = 0.04; r = -0.4), and Chlamydia trachomatis and relative humidity (p = 0.02; r = -0.5). The frequency of parainfluenza infection was highest during spring (32.1%; p = 0.005) and that of RSV infection was highest in the fall (36.4%; p < 0.001). Correlations at regular strength were found between several microbes and meteorological indicators. Parainfluenza and RSV presented marked seasonal patterns.

Seasonal variation of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Lutz & neiva, 1912) (Diptera : Psychodidae : Phlebotominae) in endemic area of visceral leishmaniasis, Campo Grande, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

The seasonal distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis was studied in two forested and five domiciliary areas of the urban area of Campo Grande; MS, from December 2003 to November 2005. Weekly captures were carried out with CDC light traps positioned on ground and in the canopy inside a residual forest and on the edge (ground) of a woodland and in at least one of the following ecotopes in peridomiciles-a cultivated area, a chicken coop, a pigsty, a kennel, a goat and sheep shelter and an intradomicile. A total of 9519 sand flies were collected, 2666 during the first year and 6853 during the second. L. longipalpis was found throughout the 2-year period, presenting smaller peaks at intervals of 2-3 months and two greater peaks, the first in February and the second in April 2005, soon after periods of heavy rain. Only In one of the woodlands was a significant negative correlation (p < 0.05) between the number of insects and temperature during the first year and the climatic factors (temperature, RHA and rain) was observed. In the domiciliary areas in four domiciles some positive correlations (p < 0.05) occurred in relation to one or more climatic factors; however, the species shows a clear tendency to greater frequency (72%) in the rainy season than in the dry (28%). Thus, we recommend an intensification of the VL control measures applied in Campo Grande, MS, during the rainy season with a view to reducing the risk of the transmission of the disease. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All fights reserved.

Seasonal drought stress in the Amazon: Reconciling models and observations

The Amazon Basin is crucial to global circulatory and carbon patterns due to the large areal extent and large flux magnitude. Biogeophysical models have had difficulty reproducing the annual cycle of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon in some regions of the Amazon, generally simulating uptake during the wet season and efflux during seasonal drought. In reality, the opposite occurs. Observational and modeling studies have identified several mechanisms that explain the observed annual cycle, including: (1) deep soil columns that can store large water amount, (2) the ability of deep roots to access moisture at depth when near-surface soil dries during annual drought, (3) movement of water in the soil via hydraulic redistribution, allowing for more efficient uptake of water during the wet season, and moistening of near-surface soil during the annual drought, and (4) photosynthetic response to elevated light levels as cloudiness decreases during the dry season. We incorporate these mechanisms into the third version of the Simple Biosphere model (SiB3) both singly and collectively, and confront the results with observations. For the forest to maintain function through seasonal drought, there must be sufficient water storage in the soil to sustain transpiration through the dry season in addition to the ability of the roots to access the stored water. We find that individually, none of these mechanisms by themselves produces a simulation of the annual cycle of NEE that matches the observed. When these mechanisms are combined into the model, NEE follows the general trend of the observations, showing efflux during the wet season and uptake during seasonal drought.

Spider-fed bromeliads: seasonal and interspecific variation in plant performance

Background and Aims Several animals that live on bromeliads can contribute to plant nutrition through nitrogen provisioning (digestive mutualism). The bromeliad-living spider Psecas chapoda (Salticidae) inhabits and breeds on Bromelia balansae in regions of South America, but in specific regions can also appear on Ananas comosus (pineapple) plantations and Aechmea distichantha. Methods Using isotopic and physiological methods in greenhouse experiments, the role of labelled ((15)N) spider faeces and Drosophila melanogaster flies in the nutrition and growth of each host plant was evaluated, as well as seasonal variation in the importance of this digestive mutualism. Key Results Spiders contributed 0.6 +/- 0.2% (mean +/- s.e.; dry season) to 2.7 +/- 1% (wet season) to the total nitrogen in B. balansae, 2.4 +/- 0.4% (dry) to 4.1 +/- 0.3% (wet) in An. comosus and 3.8 +/- 0.4% (dry) to 5 +/- 1% (wet) in Ae. distichantha. In contrast, flies did not contribute to the nutrition of these bromeliads. Chlorophylls and carotenoid concentrations did not differ among treatments. Plants that received faeces had higher soluble protein concentrations and leaf growth (RGR) only during the wet season. Conclusions These results indicate that the mutualism between spiders and bromeliads is seasonally restricted, generating a conditional outcome. There was interspecific variation in nutrient uptake, probably related to each species` performance and photosynthetic pathways. Whereas B. balansae seems to use nitrogen for growth, Ae. distichantha apparently stores nitrogen for stressful nutritional conditions. Bromeliads absorbed more nitrogen coming from spider faeces than from flies, reinforcing the beneficial role played by predators in these digestive mutualisms.

Chemical Composition, Seasonal Variation and Evaluation of Antimicrobial Activity of Essential Oils of Talauma ovata A. St. Hil. (Magnoliaceae)

The essential oils isolated by hydrodistillation from trunk bark and leaves of Talauma ovata A. St. Hil. (Magnoliaceae), collected in four seasons, were analyzed by capillary GC and GC/MS. Altogether 52 components were identified, The oils were characterized by predominance of cyclic sesquiterpenes. The main components were linalool, trans-beta-guaiene, germaerene D, germacrene B, spathulenol, caryophyllene oxide, viridiflorol and alpha-endesmol. The content of individual components was variable during the year. All oils were screened against several strains of bacteria and yeasts, using the agar well-diffusion technique. The antimicrobial activity of oils showed strong dependence with the season. Significant activity was found for oils obtained in the spring and summer.

Seasonal metabolic changes in a year-round reproductively active subtropical tree-frog (Hypsiboas prasinus)

Although seasonal metabolic variation in ectothermic tetrapods has been investigated primarily in the context of species showing some level of metabolic depression during winter, but several species of anurans maintain their activity patterns throughout the year in tropical and subtropical areas. The tree-frog Hypsiboas prasinus occurs in the subtropical Atlantic Forest and remains reproductively active during winter, at temperatures below 10 degrees C. We compared males calling in summer and winter, and found that males of H. prasinus exhibit seasonal adjustments in metabolic and morphometric variables. Individuals calling during winter were larger and showed higher resting metabolic rates than those calling during summer. Calling rates were not affected by season. Winter animals showed lower liver and heart activity level of citrate synthase (CS), partially compensated by larger liver mass. Winter individuals also showed higher activity Of pyruvate kinase (PK) and lower activity of CS in trunk muscles, and higher activity of CS in leg muscles. Winter metabolic adjustments seem to be achieved by both compensatory mechanisms to the lower environmental temperature and a seasonally oriented aerobic depression of several organs. The impact of seasonal metabolic changes on calling performance and the capacity of subtropical anurans for metabolic thermal acclimatization are also discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

SEASONAL MICROHABITAT SELECTION BY TERRESTRIAL RODENTS IN AN OLD-GROWTH ATLANTIC FOREST

We tested the hypothesis that microhabitat variables, abundance of terrestrial rodents, and microhabitat selection patterns of terrestrial rodents vary between the cool-dry and warm-wet season in the Atlantic forest of Brazil. We selected variables associated with ecological factors potentially important to terrestrial rodents (physical structure of litter and woody debris, and arthropod availability) and established 25 small, independent sampling units covering 36 ha of a homogenous, mature Atlantic forest patch. Litter humidity and height, amount of small woody debris, arthropod availability, and terrestrial rodent abundance increased, whereas the quantity of large woody debris decreased in the warm-wet season. Greater spatial segregation among terrestrial rodents also was observed in this season, especially between morphologically similar species. The distribution of 3 of the 4 most common terrestrial rodents was influenced by microhabitat variables in at least I of the seasons, and these species also differed in their pattern of microhabitat selection between seasons. In general, the amount of small woody debris and litter humidity were more important for the microscale distribution of terrestrial rodents in the cool-dry season, whereas in the mild warm-wet season species distributions were associated with food availability or were not clearly influenced by the measured variables. The patterns of microhabitat selection by 3 common terrestrial rodents, which were associated with features that characterize old-growth forest, may be responsible for their vulnerability to forest fragmentation.

Government spending and unemployment : An empirical study on Sweden, 1994-2012

The aim of the study was to see if any relationship between government spending andunemployment could be empirically found. To test if government spending affectsunemployment, a statistical model was applied on data from Sweden. The data was quarterlydata from the year 1994 until 2012, unit-root test were conducted and the variables wheretransformed to its first-difference so ensure stationarity. This transformation changed thevariables to growth rates. This meant that the interpretation deviated a little from the originalgoal. Other studies reviewed indicate that when government spending increases and/or taxesdecreases output increases. Studies show that unemployment decreases when governmentspending/GDP ratio increases. Some studies also indicated that with an already largegovernment sector increasing the spending it could have negative effect on output. The modelwas a VAR-model with unemployment, output, interest rate, taxes and government spending.Also included in the model were a linear and three quarterly dummies. The model used 7lags. The result was not statistically significant for most lags but indicated that as governmentspending growth rate increases holding everything else constant unemployment growth rateincreases. The result for taxes was even less statistically significant and indicates norelationship with unemployment. Post-estimation test indicates that there were problems withnon-normality in the model. So the results should be interpreted with some scepticism.

Evaluation of a high temperature solar thermal seasonal borehole storage

A solar thermal system with seasonal borehole storage for heating of a residential area in Anneberg, Sweden, approximately 10 km north of Stockholm, has been in operation since late 2002. Originally, the project was part of the EU THERMIE project “Large-scale Solar Heating Systems for Housing Developments” (REB/0061/97) and was the first solar heating plant in Europe with borehole storage in rock not utilizing a heat pump. Earlier evaluations of the system show lower performance than the preliminary simulation study, with residents complaining of a high use of electricity for domestic hot water (DHW) preparation and auxiliary heating. One explanation mentioned in the earlier evaluations is that the borehole storage had not yet reached “steady state” temperatures at the time of evaluation. Many years have passed since then and this paper presents results from a new evaluation. The main aim of this work is to evaluate the current performance of the system based on several key figures, as well as on system function based on available measurement data. The analysis show that though the borehole storage now has reached a quasi-steady state and operates as intended, the auxiliary electricity consumption is much higher than the original design values largely due to high losses in the distribution network, higher heat loads as well as lower solar gains.

Testing Seasonal Unit Roots in Data at Any Frequency, an HEGY approach

This paper generalizes the HEGY-type test to detect seasonal unit roots in data at any frequency, based on the seasonal unit root tests in univariate time series by Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990). We introduce the seasonal unit roots at first, and then derive the mechanism of the HEGY-type test for data with any frequency. Thereafter we provide the asymptotic distributions of our test statistics when different test regressions are employed. We find that the F-statistics for testing conjugation unit roots have the same asymptotic distributions. Then we compute the finite-sample and asymptotic critical values for daily and hourly data by a Monte Carlo method. The power and size properties of our test for hourly data is investigated, and we find that including lag augmentations in auxiliary regression without lag elimination have the smallest size distortion and tests with seasonal dummies included in auxiliary regression have more power than the tests without seasonal dummies. At last we apply the our test to hourly wind power production data in Sweden and shows there are no seasonal unit roots in the series.

Testing for Seasonal Unit Roots when Residuals Contain Serial Correlations under HEGY Test Framework

This paper introduces a corrected test statistic for testing seasonal unit roots when residuals contain serial correlations, based on the HEGY test proposed by Hylleberg,Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990). The serial correlations in the residuals of test regressionare accommodated by making corrections to the commonly used HEGY t statistics. Theasymptotic distributions of the corrected t statistics are free from nuisance parameters.The size and power properties of the corrected statistics for quarterly and montly data are investigated. Based on our simulations, the corrected statistics for monthly data havemore power compared with the commonly used HEGY test statistics, but they also have size distortions when there are strong negative seasonal correlations in the residuals.

Growth, migration and unemployment across Swedish municipalities

Fundamental questions in economics are why some regions are richer than others, why their economic growth rates vary, whether their growth tends to converge and the key factors that contribute to the variations. These questions have not yet been fully addressed, but changes in the local tax base are clearly influenced by the average income growth rate, net migration rate, and changes in unemployment rates. Thus, the main aim of this paper is to explore in depth the interactive effects of these factors (and local policy variables) in Swedish municipalities, by estimating a proposed three-equation system. Our main finding is that increases in local public expenditures and income taxes have negative effects on subsequent local income growth. In addition, our results support the conditional convergence hypothesis, i.e. that average income tends to grow more rapidly in relatively poor local jurisdictions than in initially “richer” jurisdictions, conditional on the other explanatory variables.

Changes in Maine's Unemployment Rate

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