The Effect of Spatial Scale on Predicting Time Series: A Study on Epidemiological System Identification

A susceptible-infective-recovered (SIR) epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA) is employed for simulating the temporal evolution of the registered cases of chickenpox in Arizona, USA, between 1994 and 2004. At each time step, every individual is in one of the states S, I, or R. The parameters of this model are the probabilities of each individual (each cell forming the PCA lattice ) passing from a state to another state. Here, the values of these probabilities are identified by using a genetic algorithm. If nonrealistic values are allowed to the parameters, the predictions present better agreement with the historical series than if they are forced to present realistic values. A discussion about how the size of the PCA lattice affects the quality of the model predictions is presented. Copyright (C) 2009 L. H. A. Monteiro et al.

The Relationship between Population Structure and Aluminum Tolerance in Cultivated Sorghum

Background: Acid soils comprise up to 50% of the world's arable lands and in these areas aluminum (Al) toxicity impairs root growth, strongly limiting crop yield. Food security is thereby compromised in many developing countries located in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. In sorghum, SbMATE, an Al-activated citrate transporter, underlies the Alt(SB) locus on chromosome 3 and confers Al tolerance via Al-activated root citrate release. Methodology: Population structure was studied in 254 sorghum accessions representative of the diversity present in cultivated sorghums. Al tolerance was assessed as the degree of root growth inhibition in nutrient solution containing Al. A genetic analysis based on markers flanking Alt(SB) and SbMATE expression was undertaken to assess a possible role for Alt(SB) in Al tolerant accessions. In addition, the mode of gene action was estimated concerning the Al tolerance trait. Comparisons between models that include population structure were applied to assess the importance of each subpopulation to Al tolerance. Conclusion/Significance: Six subpopulations were revealed featuring specific racial and geographic origins. Al tolerance was found to be rather rare and present primarily in guinea and to lesser extent in caudatum subpopulations. Alt(SB) was found to play a role in Al tolerance in most of the Al tolerant accessions. A striking variation was observed in the mode of gene action for the Al tolerance trait, which ranged from almost complete recessivity to near complete dominance, with a higher frequency of partially recessive sources of Al tolerance. A possible interpretation of our results concerning the origin and evolution of Al tolerance in cultivated sorghum is discussed. This study demonstrates the importance of deeply exploring the crop diversity reservoir both for a comprehensive view of the dynamics underlying the distribution and function of Al tolerance genes and to design efficient molecular breeding strategies aimed at enhancing Al tolerance.

Genetic diversity of turmeric germplasm (Curcuma longa; Zingiberaceae) identified by microsatellite markers

Turmeric (Curcuma longa) is a triploid, vegetatively propagated crop introduced early during the colonization of Brazil. Turmeric rhizomes are ground into a powder used as a natural dye in the food industry, although recent research suggests a greater potential for the development of drugs and cosmetics. In Brazil, little is known about the genetic variability available for crop improvement. We examined the genetic diversity among turmeric accessions from a Brazilian germplasm collection comprising 39 accessions collected from the States of Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo, and Para. For comparison, 18 additional genotypes were analyzed, including samples from India and Puerto Rico. Total DNA was extracted from lyophilized leaf tissue and genetic analysis was performed using 17 microsatellite markers (single-sequence repeats). Shannon-Weiner indexes ranged from 0.017 (Minas Gerais) to 0.316 (Sao Paulo). Analyses of molecular variance (AMOVA) demonstrated major differences between countries (63.4%) and that most of the genetic diversity in Brazil is found within states (75.3%). Genotypes from Sao Paulo State were the most divergent and potentially useful for crop improvement. Structure analysis indicated two main groups of accessions. These results can help target future collecting efforts for introduction of new materials needed to develop more productive and better adapted cultivars.

Genetic variability of the Amazon River prawn Macrobrachium amazonicum (Decapoda, Caridea, Palaemonidae)

The freshwater prawn Macrobrachium amazonicum is widely distributed in South America, and occupies habitats with a wide range of salinities. Several investigations have revealed the existence of wide intraspecific variability among different populations, although the understanding of this variability is still fragmentary and incomplete. We compared and characterized inland and coastal populations of M. amazonicum from Brazil, using molecular data (16S and COI mtDNA) to describe the degree of variability, structure, and relationships among them. Genetic divergence rates among populations showed variability at the intraspecific level. All the analyses evidenced significant genetic divergence among populations, structuring them in three groups: I-inland waters of the Amazonian Hydrographic Region (HR); II-Parana/Paraguay HR; and III-coastal systems of northern and northeastern Brazil. Phylogenetic reconstructions revealed that the populations form a single monophyletic clade, which supports their characterization as a single species. Clade I was a sister clade of that formed by clades II and III, which were themselves sister clades. Populations from Sertaozinho/Miguelopolis and Avare, introduced into the state of Sao Paulo, may have originated from natural populations in the states of Mato Grosso do Sul and Para, respectively. Geographical isolation probably contributed to the observed variation, and if this isolation continues. M. amazonicum may undergo speciation within its broad geographical distribution. The sequences obtained here can be used as name-tags for population identification, and the DNA barcodes are useful to identify the origin of specimens used in different freshwater-prawn cultures or introduced populations of unknown origin.

An assessment of population structure in eight breeds of cattle using a whole genome SNP panel

Background: Analyses of population structure and breed diversity have provided insight into the origin and evolution of cattle. Previously, these studies have used a low density of microsatellite markers, however, with the large number of single nucleotide polymorphism markers that are now available, it is possible to perform genome wide population genetic analyses in cattle. In this study, we used a high-density panel of SNP markers to examine population structure and diversity among eight cattle breeds sampled from Bos indicus and Bos taurus. Results: Two thousand six hundred and forty one single nucleotide polymorphisms ( SNPs) spanning all of the bovine autosomal genome were genotyped in Angus, Brahman, Charolais, Dutch Black and White Dairy, Holstein, Japanese Black, Limousin and Nelore cattle. Population structure was examined using the linkage model in the program STRUCTURE and Fst estimates were used to construct a neighbor-joining tree to represent the phylogenetic relationship among these breeds. Conclusion: The whole-genome SNP panel identified several levels of population substructure in the set of examined cattle breeds. The greatest level of genetic differentiation was detected between the Bos taurus and Bos indicus breeds. When the Bos indicus breeds were excluded from the analysis, genetic differences among beef versus dairy and European versus Asian breeds were detected among the Bos taurus breeds. Exploration of the number of SNP loci required to differentiate between breeds showed that for 100 SNP loci, individuals could only be correctly clustered into breeds 50% of the time, thus a large number of SNP markers are required to replace the 30 microsatellite markers that are currently commonly used in genetic diversity studies.

Genetic Background of Patients from a University Medical Center in Manhattan: Implications for Personalized Medicine

Background: The rapid progress currently being made in genomic science has created interest in potential clinical applications; however, formal translational research has been limited thus far. Studies of population genetics have demonstrated substantial variation in allele frequencies and haplotype structure at loci of medical relevance and the genetic background of patient cohorts may often be complex. Methods and Findings: To describe the heterogeneity in an unselected clinical sample we used the Affymetrix 6.0 gene array chip to genotype self-identified European Americans (N = 326), African Americans (N = 324) and Hispanics (N = 327) from the medical practice of Mount Sinai Medical Center in Manhattan, NY. Additional data from US minority groups and Brazil were used for external comparison. Substantial variation in ancestral origin was observed for both African Americans and Hispanics; data from the latter group overlapped with both Mexican Americans and Brazilians in the external data sets. A pooled analysis of the African Americans and Hispanics from NY demonstrated a broad continuum of ancestral origin making classification by race/ethnicity uninformative. Selected loci harboring variants associated with medical traits and drug response confirmed substantial within-and between-group heterogeneity. Conclusion: As a consequence of these complementary levels of heterogeneity group labels offered no guidance at the individual level. These findings demonstrate the complexity involved in clinical translation of the results from genome-wide association studies and suggest that in the genomic era conventional racial/ethnic labels are of little value.

Lineage divergence detected in the malaria vector Anopheles marajoara (Diptera: Culicidae) in Amazonian Brazil

Background: Cryptic species complexes are common among anophelines. Previous phylogenetic analysis based on the complete mtDNA COI gene sequences detected paraphyly in the Neotropical malaria vector Anopheles marajoara. The ""Folmer region"" detects a single taxon using a 3% divergence threshold. Methods: To test the paraphyletic hypothesis and examine the utility of the Folmer region, genealogical trees based on a concatenated (white + 3' COI sequences) dataset and pairwise differentiation of COI fragments were examined. The population structure and demographic history were based on partial COI sequences for 294 individuals from 14 localities in Amazonian Brazil. 109 individuals from 12 localities were sequenced for the nDNA white gene, and 57 individuals from 11 localities were sequenced for the ribosomal DNA (rDNA) internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2). Results: Distinct A. marajoara lineages were detected by combined genealogical analysis and were also supported among COI haplotypes using a median joining network and AMOVA, with time since divergence during the Pleistocene (< 100,000 ya). COI sequences at the 3' end were more variable, demonstrating significant pairwise differentiation (3.82%) compared to the more moderate 2.92% detected by the Folmer region. Lineage 1 was present in all localities, whereas lineage 2 was restricted mainly to the west. Mismatch distributions for both lineages were bimodal, likely due to multiple colonization events and spatial expansion (similar to 798 - 81,045 ya). There appears to be gene flow within, not between lineages, and a partial barrier was detected near Rio Jari in Amapa state, separating western and eastern populations. In contrast, both nDNA data sets (white gene sequences with or without the retention of the 4th intron, and ITS2 sequences and length) detected a single A. marajoara lineage. Conclusions: Strong support for combined data with significant differentiation detected in the COI and absent in the nDNA suggest that the divergence is recent, and detectable only by the faster evolving mtDNA. A within subgenus threshold of >2% may be more appropriate among sister taxa in cryptic anopheline complexes than the standard 3%. Differences in demographic history and climatic changes may have contributed to mtDNA lineage divergence in A. marajoara.

Spatial patterns in the brood combs of Nannotrigona testaceicornis (Hymenoptera: Meliponinae): male clusters

Genetic models of sex and caste determination in eusocial stingless bees suggest specific patterns of male, worker and gyne cell distribution in the brood comb. Conflict between queen and laying workers over male parentage and center-periphery gradients of conditions, such as food and temperature, could also contribute to non-random spatial configuration. We converted the positions of the hexagonal cells in a brood comb to Cartesian coordinates, labeled by sex or caste of the individuals inside. To detect and locate clustered patterns, the mapped brood combs were evaluated by indexes of dispersion (MMC, mean distance of cells of a given category from their centroid) and eccentricity (DMB, distance between this centroid and the overall brood comb centroid) that we developed. After randomizing the labels and recalculating the indexes, we calculated probabilities that the original values had been generated by chance. We created sets of binary brood combs in which males were aggregated, regularly or randomly distributed among females. These stylized maps were used to describe the power of MMC and DMB, and they were applied to evaluate the male distribution in the sampled Nannotrigona testaceicornis brood combs. MMC was very sensitive to slight deviations from a perfectly rounded clump; DMB detected any asymmetry in the location of these compact to fuzzy clusters. Six of the 82 brood combs of N. testaceicornis that we analyzed had more than nine males, distributed according to variations in spatial patterns, as indicated by the two indexes.

Genetic variability and natural selection at the ligand domain of the Duffy binding protein in brazilian Plasmodium vivax populations

Background: Plasmodium vivax malaria is a major public health challenge in Latin America, Asia and Oceania, with 130-435 million clinical cases per year worldwide. Invasion of host blood cells by P. vivax mainly depends on a type I membrane protein called Duffy binding protein (PvDBP). The erythrocyte-binding motif of PvDBP is a 170 amino-acid stretch located in its cysteine-rich region II (PvDBP(II)), which is the most variable segment of the protein. Methods: To test whether diversifying natural selection has shaped the nucleotide diversity of PvDBP(II) in Brazilian populations, this region was sequenced in 122 isolates from six different geographic areas. A Bayesian method was applied to test for the action of natural selection under a population genetic model that incorporates recombination. The analysis was integrated with a structural model of PvDBP(II), and T-and B-cell epitopes were localized on the 3-D structure. Results: The results suggest that: (i) recombination plays an important role in determining the haplotype structure of PvDBP(II), and (ii) PvDBP(II) appears to contain neutrally evolving codons as well as codons evolving under natural selection. Diversifying selection preferentially acts on sites identified as epitopes, particularly on amino acid residues 417, 419, and 424, which show strong linkage disequilibrium. Conclusions: This study shows that some polymorphisms of PvDBP(II) are present near the erythrocyte-binding domain and might serve to elude antibodies that inhibit cell invasion. Therefore, these polymorphisms should be taken into account when designing vaccines aimed at eliciting antibodies to inhibit erythrocyte invasion.

Optical absorption and electronic band structure first-principles calculations of alpha-glycine crystals

Light absorption of alpha-glycine crystals grown by slow evaporation at room temperature was measured, indicating a 5.11 +/- 0.02 eV energy band gap. Structural, electronic, and optical absorption properties of alpha-glycine crystals were obtained by first-principles quantum mechanical calculations using density functional theory within the generalized gradient approximation in order to understand this result. To take into account the contribution of core electrons, ultrasoft and norm-conserving pseudopotentials, as well as an all electron approach were considered to compute the electronic density of states and band structure of alpha-glycine crystals. They exhibit three indirect energy band gaps and one direct Gamma-Gamma energy gap around 4.95 eV. The optical absorption related to transitions between the top of the valence band and the bottom of the conduction band involves O 2p valence states and C, O 2p conduction states, with the carboxyl group contributing significantly to the origin of the energy band gap. The calculated optical absorption is highly dependent on the polarization of the incident radiation due to the spatial arrangement of the dipolar glycine molecules; in the case of a polycrystalline sample, the first-principles calculated optical absorption is in good agreement with the measurement when a rigid energy shift is applied.

Forest structure and live aboveground biomass variation along an elevational gradient of tropical Atlantic moist forest (Brazil)

Live aboveground biomass (AGB) is an important source of uncertainty in the carbon balance from the tropical regions in part due scarcity of reliable estimates of live AGB and its variation across landscapes and forest types. Studies of forest structure and biomass stocks of Neotropical forests are biased toward Amazonian and Central American sites. In particular, standardized estimates of aboveground biomass stocks for the Brazilian Atlantic forest are rarely available. Notwithstanding the role of environmental variables that control the distribution and abundance of biomass in tropical lowland forests has been the subject of considerable research, the effect of short, steep elevational gradients on tropical forest structure and carbon dynamics is not well known. In order to evaluate forest structure and live AGB variation along an elevational gradient (0-1100 m a.s.l.) of coastal Atlantic Forest in SE Brazil, we carried out a standard census of woody stems >= 4.8 cm dbh in 13 1-ha permanent plots established on four different sites in 2006-2007. Live AGB ranged from 166.3 Mg ha(-1) (bootstrapped 95% CI: 1444,187.0) to 283.2 Mg ha(-1) (bootstrapped 95% CI: 253.0,325.2) and increased with elevation. We found that local-scale topographic variation associated with elevation influences the distribution of trees >50 cm dbh and total live AGB. Across all elevations, we found more stems (64-75%) with limited crown illumination but the largest proportion of the live AGB (68-85%) was stored in stems with highly illuminated or fully exposed crowns. Topography, disturbance and associated changes in light and nutrient supply probably control biomass distribution along this short but representative elevational gradient. Our findings also showed that intact Atlantic forest sites stored substantial amounts of carbon aboveground. The live tree AGB of the stands was found to be lower than Central Amazonian forests, but within the range of Neotropical forests, in particular when compared to Central American forests. Our comparative data suggests that differences in live tree AGB among Neotropical forests are probably related to the heterogeneous distribution of large and medium-sized diameter trees within forests and how the live biomass is partitioned among those size classes, in accordance with general trends found by previous studies. In addition, the elevational variation in live AGB stocks suggests a large spatial variability over coastal Atlantic forests in Brazil, clearly indicating that it is important to consider regional differences in biomass stocks for evaluating the role of this threatened tropical biome in the global carbon cycle. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of carbon, biomass, and structure in two Amazonian forests

Amazon forests are potentially globally significant sources or sinks for atmospheric carbon dioxide. In this study, we characterize the spatial trends in carbon storage and fluxes in both live and dead biomass (necromass) in two Amazonian forests, the Biological Dynamic of Forest Fragments Project (BDFFP), near Manaus, Amazonas, and the Tapajos National Forest (TNF) near Santarem, Para. We assessed coarse woody debris (CWD) stocks, tree growth, mortality, and recruitment in ground-based plots distributed across the terra firme forest at both sites. Carbon dynamics were similar within each site, but differed significantly between the sites. The BDFFP and the TNF held comparable live biomass (167 +/- 7.6 MgC.ha(-1) versus 149 +/- 6.0 MgC.ha(-1), respectively), but stocks of CWD were 2.5 times larger at TNF (16.2 +/- 1.5 MgC.ha(-1) at BDFFP, versus 40.1 +/- 3.9 MgC.ha(-1) at TNF). A model of current forest dynamics suggests that the BDFFP was close to carbon balance, and its size class structure approximated a steady state. The TNF, by contrast, showed rapid carbon accrual to live biomass (3.24 +/- 0.22 MgC.ha(-1).a(-1) in TNF, 2.59 +/- 0.16 MgC.ha(-1).a(-1) in BDFFP), which was more than offset by losses from large stocks of CWD, as well as ongoing shifts of biomass among size classes. This pattern in the TNF suggests recovery from a significant disturbance. The net loss of carbon from the TNF will likely last 10 - 15 years after the initial disturbance (controlled by the rate of decay of coarse woody debris), followed by uptake of carbon as the forest size class structure and composition continue to shift. The frequency and longevity of forests showing such disequilibruim dynamics within the larger matrix of the Amazon remains an essential question to understanding Amazonian carbon balance.

The role of local and systemic renin angiotensin system activation in a genetic model of sympathetic hyperactivity-induced heart failure in mice

Sympathetic hyperactivity (SH) and renin angiotensin system (RAS) activation are commonly associated with heart failure (HF), even though the relative contribution of these factors to the cardiac derangement is less understood. The role of SH on RAS components and its consequences for the HF were investigated in mice lacking alpha(2A) and alpha(2C) adrenoceptor knockout (alpha(2A)/alpha(2C) ARKO) that present SH with evidence of HF by 7 mo of age. Cardiac and systemic RAS components and plasma norepinephrine (PN) levels were evaluated in male adult mice at 3 and 7 mo of age. In addition, cardiac morphometric analysis, collagen content, exercise tolerance, and hemodynamic assessments were made. At 3 mo, alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO mice showed no signs of HF, while displaying elevated PN, activation of local and systemic RAS components, and increased cardiomyocyte width (16%) compared with wild-type mice (WT). In contrast, at 7 mo, alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO mice presented clear signs of HF accompanied only by cardiac activation of angiotensinogen and ANG II levels and increased collagen content (twofold). Consistent with this local activation of RAS, 8 wk of ANG II AT(1) receptor blocker treatment restored cardiac structure and function comparable to the WT. Collectively, these data provide direct evidence that cardiac RAS activation plays a major role underlying the structural and functional abnormalities associated with a genetic SH-induced HF in mice.

Modeling associations between genetic markers using Bayesian networks

Motivation: Understanding the patterns of association between polymorphisms at different loci in a population ( linkage disequilibrium, LD) is of fundamental importance in various genetic studies. Many coefficients were proposed for measuring the degree of LD, but they provide only a static view of the current LD structure. Generative models (GMs) were proposed to go beyond these measures, giving not only a description of the actual LD structure but also a tool to help understanding the process that generated such structure. GMs based in coalescent theory have been the most appealing because they link LD to evolutionary factors. Nevertheless, the inference and parameter estimation of such models is still computationally challenging. Results: We present a more practical method to build GM that describe LD. The method is based on learning weighted Bayesian network structures from haplotype data, extracting equivalence structure classes and using them to model LD. The results obtained in public data from the HapMap database showed that the method is a promising tool for modeling LD. The associations represented by the learned models are correlated with the traditional measure of LD D`. The method was able to represent LD blocks found by standard tools. The granularity of the association blocks and the readability of the models can be controlled in the method. The results suggest that the causality information gained by our method can be useful to tell about the conservability of the genetic markers and to guide the selection of subset of representative markers.

Optimization of modal filters based on arrays of piezoelectric sensors

Modal filters may be obtained by a properly designed weighted sum of the output signals of an array of sensors distributed on the host structure. Although several research groups have been interested in techniques for designing and implementing modal filters based on a given array of sensors, the effect of the array topology on the effectiveness of the modal filter has received much less attention. In particular, it is known that some parameters, such as size, shape and location of a sensor, are very important in determining the observability of a vibration mode. Hence, this paper presents a methodology for the topological optimization of an array of sensors in order to maximize the effectiveness of a set of selected modal filters. This is done using a genetic algorithm optimization technique for the selection of 12 piezoceramic sensors from an array of 36 piezoceramic sensors regularly distributed on an aluminum plate, which maximize the filtering performance, over a given frequency range, of a set of modal filters, each one aiming to isolate one of the first vibration modes. The vectors of the weighting coefficients for each modal filter are evaluated using QR decomposition of the complex frequency response function matrix. Results show that the array topology is not very important for lower frequencies but it greatly affects the filter effectiveness for higher frequencies. Therefore, it is possible to improve the effectiveness and frequency range of a set of modal filters by optimizing the topology of an array of sensors. Indeed, using 12 properly located piezoceramic sensors bonded on an aluminum plate it is shown that the frequency range of a set of modal filters may be enlarged by 25-50%.