New Insights from Aperiodic Variability of Young Stars

Nearly all young stars are variable, with the variability traditionally divided into two classes: periodic variables and aperiodic or "irregular" variables. Periodic variables have been studied extensively, typically using periodograms, while aperiodic variables have received much less attention due to a lack of standard statistical tools. However, aperiodic variability can serve as a powerful probe of young star accretion physics and inner circumstellar disk structure. For my dissertation, I analyzed data from a large-scale, long-term survey of the nearby North America Nebula complex, using Palomar Transient Factory photometric time series collected on a nightly or every few night cadence over several years. This survey is the most thorough exploration of variability in a sample of thousands of young stars over time baselines of days to years, revealing a rich array of lightcurve shapes, amplitudes, and timescales.

I have constrained the timescale distribution of all young variables, periodic and aperiodic, on timescales from less than a day to ~100 days. I have shown that the distribution of timescales for aperiodic variables peaks at a few days, with relatively few (~15%) sources dominated by variability on tens of days or longer. My constraints on aperiodic timescale distributions are based on two new tools, magnitude- vs. time-difference (Δm-Δt) plots and peak-finding plots, for describing aperiodic lightcurves; this thesis provides simulations of their performance and presents recommendations on how to apply them to aperiodic signals in other time series data sets. In addition, I have measured the error introduced into colors or SEDs from combining photometry of variable sources taken at different epochs. These are the first quantitative results to be presented on the distributions in amplitude and time scale for young aperiodic variables, particularly those varying on timescales of weeks to months.

The impact of year-to-year changes in the weather on the seasonal dynamics of lakes

The methods currently used to monitor and model lakes were developed when weather conditions were very different to what they are today. Most are based on samples collected at weekly or fortnightly intervals and cannot quantify the effects of short-term, more extreme, variations in the weather. In this article, the author presents some examples to show the importance of developing new monitoring methods using case studies from a number of lakes in the English Lake District. The impact of year-to-year changes and short-term changes on the dynamics of of lakes are highlighted.

The impact of year-to-year changes in the weather on the seasonal dynamics of lakes

Year-to-year changes in the weather have a pronounced effect on the quality of the water abstracted from many reservoirs in the UK. In upland reservoirs, the most common weather-related problem is the appearance of coloured water following dry summers and the re-wetting of peat during the winter (Naden & McDonald 1989; George 2000). In lowland reservoirs, the most serious weather-related issue is the growth of bloom- forming species of algae during warm, calm summers (National Rivers Authority 1989). Both of these problems are likely to get worse as the climate becomes warmer and extreme variations in the weather become more common. In this article, the authors describe some of the ways in which recent changes in the weather have influenced the quality of the water stored in a large reservoir in the south-east of England. The reservoir selected for study is the Queen Elizabeth II (QEII), a bankside reservoir situated in the Thames valley. The quality of water stored in this reservoir is generally very good but summer blooms of algae have become increasingly common in recent years.

Mortality, growth and growth rate variability of striped bass larvae in Chesapeake Subestuaries

In this report we develop age-length keys and derive age-frequency data. We estimate striped bass and white perch mortality and growth rates, based on the otolith-aging analysis. We also report on hatch-date frequencies of striped bass and white perch larvae, and we discuss environmental effects on recruitment potential.

Seasonal variation in the diurnal periodicity of activity of the perch, Perca fluviatilis L. [Translation from: Kalamies 1973(3) 3.]

The most common catch of the amateur angler is the perch and it is the diurnal periodicity of activity (& catchability) which is examined in this study based on earlier articles and manuscripts by the authors. Of all environmental factors, variation in light and temperature are the chief reasons in establishing the times of activity periods. Winter, summer and autumn activity was studied. The spawning perch was found to be more active than the non-spawning perch. The time of day in which the fish may be active is dependant on its ability to sense changes in the external environment. Its adaptation to light is the reason for day-activity in the winter, and also accounts for the fact that hardly any activity occurs between sunset and sunrise when this period exceeds 6 hours.

Ecological significance of seasonal variation in clutch-size of Arctodiaptomus bacillifer in alpine lakes of high altitudes (Val Bognanco) [Translation from: Bollettino di Zoologia 37 491-492, 1970]

This brief paper describes the significance of seasonal variation in clutch-size of the copepod Arctodiaptomus bacillifer in alpine lakes of high altitudes (Val Bognanco). Seasonal dynamics of the zooplankton of these lakes was studied during summer and autumn of 1968 and 1969and results are summarised.

Individual growth and seasonal cycle of Daphnia middendorffiana in an Alpine lake [Translation from: Memorie dell'Istituto Italiano di Idrobiologia Dott.Marco de Marchi 26 41-83, 1970]

The problem of the peculiar reproductive biology of the cladoceran Daphnia middendorffiana is investigated from a cytological viewpoint, and by direct observation the meiotic phenomena of the eggs both subitaneous and resting is studied. and during maturation, the true mechanism of the succession of reproductive phases of different ecological significance. Samples were collected in the Italian Alpine Lake of Campo 4°.

Experiments using an artificial stream to investigate the seasonal growth of chalk-stream algae

Research into the production ecology of chalk streams using a large artificial recirculating stream is described. Physical chemical processes including calcium and inorganic phosphate levels, and exchange of gaseous carbon dioxide in both a simple closed system and a circulating system with gravel substrate have been monitored in both light and dark conditions. Further experiments were concerned with the seasonal changes in algal growth over the gravel substrate with constant water velocities and replenishment. The algal population, composed mainly of the diatoms Achnanthes minutissima, Meridion circulare, Nitzschia fonticola and Synedra ulna reached a peak in mid May and declined rapidly during June. Concentrations of phosphate phosphorus fell as the diatoms grew but was not thought to limit growth. Silicate concentrations followed the diatom cycle closely but never fell below 0.8 mg/l Si. It is possible that one of the nutrients may have been limiting the rate of growth due to steep diffusion gradients through the algal mat. In the last summer and autumn a hard calcareous crust composed of the green alga Gongrosira incrustans and the blue green alga Homeothrix varians , developed. The channel stream is compared with the natural conditions found in chalk streams.

Nitrates in surface waters, inputs and seasonality: Phase 2

Changes in management practices and agricultural productivity over the past twenty years have lead to nitrate pollution and eutrophication of lakes and rivers. Information on nitrate concentrations and discharge has been collected on the River Frome at East Stoke since 1965, using the same analytical nitrate method so that the results are comparable. These records of weekly spot values of nitrate concentration and daily mean discharges have been analysed for trends and seasonal patterns in both concentration and nitrate loadings. In this extension of our nitrate contract, a new automated method of intensive sampling has been used to monitor short-term variability and to assess how well similar routine (weekly) sampling schemes can represent the true nitrate record.

Ecologia térmica e comportamento de construção de abrigos de Liolaemus lutzae (Lacertilia, Liolaemidae) em três áreas de restinga no estado do Rio de Janeiro, sudeste do Brasil: os efeitos de fatores extrínsecos e intrínsecos

Fatores extrínsecos afetam a ecologia térmica e o comportamento de lagartos no habitat, com as características ambientais locais podendo ocasionar alterações na temperatura corpórea (Tc) e no comportamento destes animais. Entretanto, fatores intrínsecos também representam uma importante influência para sua biologia, assim como fatores filogenéticos (históricos). Liolaemus lutzae (Liolaemidae) é uma espécie de lagarto com ocorrência restrita a restingas do estado do Rio de Janeiro (entre a Restinga da Marambaia no município do Rio de Janeiro e a restinga da Praia do Peró no município de Cabo Frio), vivendo exclusivamente na zona de vegetação halófila-psamófila-reptante a chamada área-de-praia da restinga (sujeita a altas temperaturas ambientais e ventos intensos constantes). Nessa área, onde vivem restritos a uma faixa de poucos metros de restinga, os indivíduos se abrigam escavando abrigos no substrato arenoso. Avaliei a importância de fontes ambientais de calor, da intensidade dos ventos, do sexo, da ontogenia, do comprimento rostro-cloacal (CRC) e da massa corpórea para a Tc e a taxa de atividade de lagartos L. lutzae (observando a ocorrência de variações sazonais), em estudos conduzidos no município de Arraial do Cabo, estado do Rio de Janeiro, sudeste do Brasil. Além disso, eu analisei se o comportamento de L. lutzae, direcionando as aberturas de seus abrigos foi afetado por fatores ambientais nas restingas da Reserva Ecológica Estadual de Jacarepiá e do Parque Natural Municipal de Grumari, ambas no estado do Rio de Janeiro. A atividade dos lagartos se estendeu durante o dia (0600h às 1800h), com máximo entre 1100h e 1300h (com variações sazonais). A Tc dos indivíduos foi 31,7  3,4 C, e variou ao longo do dia e sazonalmente. Em ambas as estações a Tc dos lagartos relacionaram-se às temperaturas do microhabitat (substrato e ar). A intensidade do vento influenciou a Tc dos lagartos (causando seu decréscimo), e a intensidade média do vento afetou o número de lagartos ativos (causando redução da atividade). Houve diferenças intersexuais no CRC, com os machos maiores do que as fêmeas, embora as fêmeas tenham tido maior massa corpórea relativa ao CRC correspondente, comparado aos machos. A Tc também diferiu inter-sexualmente (com machos mais quentes do que fêmeas) e ontogeneticamente (com jovens mais quentes do que adultos depois de removido o efeito do tamanho corpóreo). Houve relações entre a Tc e o CRC e entre a Tc e a massa corpórea, com lagartos maiores tendo Tc mais elevada (causada pela inércia térmica dos corpos). A variabilidade na Tc dos lagartos parece refletir a interação entre características ambientais locais, fatores intrínsecos e a filogenia da espécie. As aberturas dos abrigos foram localizadas principalmente próximas à linha de praia (possivelmente devido ao substrato menos compacto), predominantemente em terrenos inclinados e tiveram uma tendência de orientação influenciada pela inclinação do terreno. O comportamento de L. lutzae de orientar a entrada de seus abrigos para a direção descendente das inclinações pode ser vantajoso para torná-los menos vulneráveis a potenciais ameaças e distúrbios vindos da superfície.

Hypoxic and low pH water in the nearshore marine environments of Monterey Bay, California: characterizing a decade of oxygen and pH, and drivers of variability.

A decade-long time series recorded in southern Monterey Bay, California demonstrates that the shallow, near-shore environment (17 m depth) is regularly inundated with pulses of cold, hypoxic and low pH water. During these episodes, oxygen can drop to biologically threatening levels, and pH levels were lower than expected. Weekly water chemistry monitoring revealed that the saturation state of aragonite (the more soluble form of calcium carbonate) was often below saturation and had a moderate positive relationship with pH, however, analytical and human error could be high. Pulses of hypoxia and low pH water with the greatest intensity arise at the onset of the spring upwelling season, and fluctuations are strongly semidurnal (tidal) and diurnal. Arrival of cold, hypoxic water on the inner shelf typically occurs 3 days after the arrival of a strong upwelling event and appears to be driven by upwelling modulated by internal tidal fluctuations. I found no relationship between the timing of low-oxygen events and the diel solar cycle nor with terrestrial nutrient input. These observations are consistent with advection of hypoxic water from the deep, offshore environment where water masses experience a general decline of temperature, oxygen and pH with depth, and inconsistent with biochemical forcing. Comparisons with concurrent temperature and oxygen time series taken ~20 km away at the head of the Monterey Canyon show similar patterns but even more intense hypoxic events due to stronger semidiurnal forcing there. Analysis of the durations of exposure to low oxygen levels establishes a framework for assessing the ecological relevance of these events. Increasing oceanic hypoxia and acidification of both surface and deep waters may increase the number, intensity, duration and spatial extent of future intrusions along the Pacific coast. Evaluation of the resiliency of nearshore ecosystems such as kelp forests, rocky reefs and sandy habitats, will require consideration of these events.

Spatial-temporal excess mortality patterns of the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in Spain

Background: The impact of socio-demographic factors and baseline health on the mortality burden of seasonal and pandemic influenza remains debated. Here we analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1918 influenza pandemic in Spain, one of the countries of Europe that experienced the highest mortality burden. Methods: We analyzed monthly death rates from respiratory diseases and all-causes across 49 provinces of Spain, including the Canary and Balearic Islands, during the period January-1915 to June-1919. We estimated the influenza-related excess death rates and risk of death relative to baseline mortality by pandemic wave and province. We then explored the association between pandemic excess mortality rates and health and socio-demographic factors, which included population size and age structure, population density, infant mortality rates, baseline death rates, and urbanization. Results: Our analysis revealed high geographic heterogeneity in pandemic mortality impact. We identified 3 pandemic waves of varying timing and intensity covering the period from Jan-1918 to Jun-1919, with the highest pandemic-related excess mortality rates occurring during the months of October-November 1918 across all Spanish provinces. Cumulative excess mortality rates followed a south-north gradient after controlling for demographic factors, with the North experiencing highest excess mortality rates. A model that included latitude, population density, and the proportion of children living in provinces explained about 40% of the geographic variability in cumulative excess death rates during 1918-19, but different factors explained mortality variation in each wave. Conclusions: A substantial fraction of the variability in excess mortality rates across Spanish provinces remained unexplained, which suggests that other unidentified factors such as comorbidities, climate and background immunity may have affected the 1918-19 pandemic mortality rates. Further archeo-epidemiological research should concentrate on identifying settings with combined availability of local historical mortality records and information on the prevalence of underlying risk factors, or patient-level clinical data, to further clarify the drivers of 1918 pandemic influenza mortality.