975 resultados para Ruin probability
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Mestrado em Tecnologia de Diagnóstico e Intervenção Cardiovascular. Área de especialização: Ultrassonografia Cardiovascular.
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Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Assessoria de Administração
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As constantes alterações das realidades sociais e epidemiológicas em associação ao envelhecimento populacional conduziram a insuficiências dos Sistemas Social e de Saúde que requerem uma reestruturação ao nível da adequação dos cuidados de saúde a prestar, pelo que, em resposta a esta necessidade foi criada a Rede Nacional de Cuidados Continuados Integrados. O presente estudo, de natureza qualitativa e carácter exploratório, tem como objectivo compreender a percepção dos Terapeutas Ocupacionais que trabalham em Unidades de Cuidados Continuados Integrados relativamente às categorias que considerem mais relevantes da Classificação Internacional da Funcionalidade, Incapacidade e Saúde, tendo sido aplicada uma entrevista a 8 profissionais a exercer funções em Unidades da Zona Norte, resultante de um processo de amostragem não probabilística e de conveniência. Como método de recolha de dados foi aplicada uma entrevista semi-estruturada, cujo guião foi construído após revisão bibliográfica, tendo por base as categorias definidas pelo modelo da Classificação Internacional da Funcionalidade, Incapacidade e Saúde e, posteriormente, analisado por um painel de peritos, tendo-se procedido à realização de uma entrevista piloto a um elemento, sem que esta contasse para a análise. A partir da análise das entrevistas realizadas procedemos à identificação das unidades de significado, tendo os conceitos sido ligados às categorias da Classificação que o representam de uma forma mais adequada, de acordo com as linking rules, tendo sido identificadas as categorias mais relevantes para os Terapeutas Ocupacionais a exercer funções em Unidades de Cuidados Continuados Integrados. Com a realização deste estudo, que pretende ser um primeiro passo para a criação de um futuro Core Set em Cuidados Continuados, foi-nos possível verificar que o maior número de categorias foram observadas no componente Actividades e Participação, tendo sido contabilizadas 70 (40,7%). Por outro lado, o componente Estruturas do corpo é o que integra menor número, contando com 19 categorias (11,05%). Assim, pensamos que a criação de um Core Set em Cuidados Continuados poderá beneficiar e facilitar a comunicação entre os profissionais destas equipas. No entanto, é importante ressalvar que a terminologia desta Classificação deverá ser utilizada de uma forma concertada com a linguagem específica da Terapia Ocupacional. Palavras-chave: Classificação Internacional da Funcionalidade, Incapacidade e Saúde, Core Set, Terapeutas Ocupacionais, Unidades de Cuidados Continuados Integrados.
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O trabalho realizado teve como objetivo principal analisar os ajustes posturais antecipatórios que ocorrem durante o desempenho de uma tarefa motora fundamental (apanhar), em crianças entre os nove e os dez anos de idade, residentes no Porto e que apresentam um desenvolvimento normal com recurso ao sistema de captura e parametrização do movimento em tempo real BioStage ®. Como objetivo secundário pretendeu-se perceber de que forma este sistema pode ser uma ferramenta importante na prática clínica da terapia ocupacional. Para tal, realizou-se um estudo de natureza quantitativa e de carácter descritivo e recorreu-se a uma amostra de 12 crianças, utilizando o método de amostragem não probabilística por conveniência. A recolha de dados efetuou-se no sistema BioStage ® e foi pedido que realizassem quatro itens do subteste 5 do Bruininks-Oseretsky Test of Motor Proficiency (BOTMP) – receção bi e unilateral de uma bola com e sem ressalto no chão. Os resultados obtidos sugerem que as raparigas e as crianças mais novas demonstram ter menos estabilidade do tronco e pélvis ou menor capacidade de prever a trajetória da bola e que a receção unilateral foi mais difícil de efetuar pela maioria das crianças. Para concluir, refere-se que o BioStage ® mostra-se útil e é uma mais-valia, contribuindo de forma positiva para a prática da terapia ocupacional, uma vez que pode ser considerado como um complemento ao processo de avaliação pois faz uma análise detalhada, precisa e objetiva e identifica aspetos de difícil mensuração através da observação.
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In this paper, a stochastic programming approach is proposed for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty. Uncertainty in the energy market prices is the main cause of high volatility of profits achieved by power producers. The volatile and intermittent nature of wind energy represents another source of uncertainty. Hence, each uncertain parameter is modeled by scenarios, where each scenario represents a plausible realization of the uncertain parameters with an associated occurrence probability. Also, an appropriate risk measurement is considered. The proposed approach is applied on a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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OBJECTIVE: To identify factors that lead people to visit a doctor in Brazil and assess differences between socioeconomic groups. METHODS: A cross-sectional study comprising 1,260 subjects aged 15 or more was carried out in southern Brazil. Demographic, socioeconomic, health needs and regular source of care data were analyzed concerning visits to a doctor within two months from the interview. Adjusted prevalence ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using Poisson regression. RESULTS: Adjusted PR showed that women having stressful life events, health insurance, and a regular doctor increased the outcome. A dose-related response was found with self-reported health, and the probability of visiting a doctor increased with health needs. Analysis in the chronic disease group revealed that uneducated lower income subjects had a 62% reduction in the chance of visiting a doctor compared to uneducated higher income ones. However, as it was seen a significant interaction between income and education, years of schooling increased utilization in this group. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest the existence of health inequity in the poorest group that could be overcome with education. Specific measures reinforcing the importance of having a regular doctor may also improve access in the underserved group.
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Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Politécnico do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Logística Orientada por: Prof. Dr. Pedro Godinho
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Dissertação para a obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Auditoria Orientador: Mestre Carlos Manuel Antunes Mendes
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OBJECTIVE: Voluntary HIV counseling and testing are provided to all Brazilian pregnant women with the purpose of reducing mother-to-child HIV transmission. The purpose of the study was to assess characteristics of HIV testing and identify factors associated with HIV counseling and testing. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was carried out comprising 1,658 mothers living in Porto Alegre, Brazil. Biological, reproductive and social variables were obtained from mothers by means of a standardized questionnaire. Being counseling about HIV testing was the dependent variable. Confidence intervals, chi-square test and hierarchical logistic model were used to determine the association between counseling and maternal variables. RESULTS: Of 1,658 mothers interviewed, 1,603 or 96.7% (95% CI: 95.7-97.5) underwent HIV testing, and 51 or 3.1% (95% CI: 2.3-4.0) were not tested. Four (0.2%) refused to undergo testing after counseling. Of 51 women not tested in this study, 30 had undergone the testing previously. Of 1,603 women tested, 630 or 39.3% (95% CI: 36.9-41.7) received counseling, 947 or 59.2% (95% CI: 56.6-61.5) did not, and 26 (1.6%) did not inform. Low income, lack of prenatal care, late beginning of prenatal care, use of rapid testing, and receiving prenatal in the public sector were variables independently associated with a lower probability of getting counseling about HIV testing. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings confirmed the high rate of prenatal HIV testing in Porto Alegre. However, women coming from less privileged social groups were less likely to receive information and benefit from counseling.
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This paper presents a methodology that aims to increase the probability of delivering power to any load point of the electrical distribution system by identifying new investments in distribution components. The methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of the distribution power system components and it uses fuzzy-probabilistic modelling for system component outage parameters. Fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters are obtained by statistical records. A mixed integer non-linear optimization technique is developed to identify adequate investments in distribution networks components that allow increasing the availability level for any customer in the distribution system at minimum cost for the system operator. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a real distribution network.
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A crioterapia é prática comum na medicina esportiva, pela praticidade, facilidade de acesso e baixo custo, possuindo vantajoso uso na Saúde Pública. No entanto, os efeitos analgésicos do gelo tem pouca base objetiva e sistematizada em termos de técnicas, duração e frequência. O objetivo deste estudo foi sintetizar através da revisão sistemática (RS) as evidências relativas à efetividade da crioterapia para o tratamento das entorses de tornozelo de atletas. A RS é um método de pesquisa observacional e retrospectivo, pelo qual se tratam artigos, preferencialmente Ensaios Clínicos Aleatórios – ECA, como sujeitos da investigação, com rigorosos critérios de inclusão e exclusão e, quando possível, realiza-se uma macro estatística dos resultados – metaanálise. No presente RS, foram consultados cinco bancos de dados - Medline, Embase, Cochrane, Lilacs e PEDro para buscar ECA sobre crioterapia com os desfechos dor, edema, rigidez e função. Resultados: 289 estudos foram identificados inicialmente, dos quais nove com tratamentos isolados ou associados à crioterapia, porém apenas um preencheu aos critérios de inclusão, cujo N era 121 atletas, dos quais 64 receberam a crioterapia (funcional) e 57 no grupo controle (imobilização). Maior probabilidade para o evento dor foi observada no grupo controle, após 3 e 12 meses. A RS revelou uma lacuna em ECA dentro do tema, mas não encontrou efeito adverso na prática da crioterapia, sendo um princípio analgésico importante, sobretudo em lesões de tecidos moles.
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This paper proposes a new methodology to reduce the probability of occurring states that cause load curtailment, while minimizing the involved costs to achieve that reduction. The methodology is supported by a hybrid method based on Fuzzy Set and Monte Carlo Simulation to catch both randomness and fuzziness of component outage parameters of transmission power system. The novelty of this research work consists in proposing two fundamentals approaches: 1) a global steady approach which deals with building the model of a faulted transmission power system aiming at minimizing the unavailability corresponding to each faulted component in transmission power system. This, results in the minimal global cost investment for the faulted components in a system states sample of the transmission network; 2) a dynamic iterative approach that checks individually the investment’s effect on the transmission network. A case study using the Reliability Test System (RTS) 1996 IEEE 24 Buses is presented to illustrate in detail the application of the proposed methodology.
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This paper presents a methodology supported on the data base knowledge discovery process (KDD), in order to find out the failure probability of electrical equipments’, which belong to a real electrical high voltage network. Data Mining (DM) techniques are used to discover a set of outcome failure probability and, therefore, to extract knowledge concerning to the unavailability of the electrical equipments such us power transformers and high-voltages power lines. The framework includes several steps, following the analysis of the real data base, the pre-processing data, the application of DM algorithms, and finally, the interpretation of the discovered knowledge. To validate the proposed methodology, a case study which includes real databases is used. This data have a heavy uncertainty due to climate conditions for this reason it was used fuzzy logic to determine the set of the electrical components failure probabilities in order to reestablish the service. The results reflect an interesting potential of this approach and encourage further research on the topic.
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Distributed generation unlike centralized electrical generation aims to generate electrical energy on small scale as near as possible to load centers, interchanging electric power with the network. This work presents a probabilistic methodology conceived to assist the electric system planning engineers in the selection of the distributed generation location, taking into account the hourly load changes or the daily load cycle. The hourly load centers, for each of the different hourly load scenarios, are calculated deterministically. These location points, properly weighted according to their load magnitude, are used to calculate the best fit probability distribution. This distribution is used to determine the maximum likelihood perimeter of the area where each source distributed generation point should preferably be located by the planning engineers. This takes into account, for example, the availability and the cost of the land lots, which are factors of special relevance in urban areas, as well as several obstacles important for the final selection of the candidates of the distributed generation points. The proposed methodology has been applied to a real case, assuming three different bivariate probability distributions: the Gaussian distribution, a bivariate version of Freund’s exponential distribution and the Weibull probability distribution. The methodology algorithm has been programmed in MATLAB. Results are presented and discussed for the application of the methodology to a realistic case and demonstrate the ability of the proposed methodology for efficiently handling the determination of the best location of the distributed generation and their corresponding distribution networks.
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OBJECTIVE: To determine the intensity of Pediculus capitis infestation (abundance) among Argentinean schoolchildren. Children's sex and social stratum were analyzed as modifiers of the general prevalence and degree of parasitism. METHODS: The study included 1,370 schoolchildren (692 girls, 678 boys) from 26 schools of the province of La Rioja (21 public schools, five private schools). Classic prevalence was obtained as the percentage of children with nits and/or lice. Moreover, five degrees of parasitism were classified: 0) children with no signs of pediculosis; 0+) children with evidence of past infestation; 1) children with a recent infestation and low probability of active parasitism; 2) children with a recent infestation and high probability of active parasitism; 3) children with mobile lice (active pediculosis). RESULTS: The general prevalence was 61.4% (girls: 79%; boys: 44%, p<0.001). Private schools showed lower prevalence than public schools (p=0.02), especially due to the low prevalence in boys. Fifty percent of children were classified in classes 0 and 0+, 22% in class 1; and 28% in grades 2 and 3. The proportion of children in grade 3 was higher in public schools than in private schools. There were significant sexual differences in the intensity of parasitism for grades 2 and 3, where girls' rates exceeded twice those of boys'. CONCLUSIONS: Sex and social stratum are important modifiers of P. capitis general prevalence and degree of infestation. The classification of children by intensity of infestation allowed a more precise delimitation of this condition, which is especially important for disease surveillance and application of control measures.