Application of GIS-based multi-criteria analysis for site selection of aquifer recharge with reclaimed water

Reclaimed water from small wastewater treatment facilities in the rural areas of the Beira Interior region (Portugal) may constitute an alternative water source for aquifer recharge. A 21-month monitoring period in a constructed wetland treatment system has shown that 21,500 m(3) year(-1) of treated wastewater (reclaimed water) could be used for aquifer recharge. A GIS-based multi-criteria analysis was performed, combining ten thematic maps and economic, environmental and technical criteria, in order to produce a suitability map for the location of sites for reclaimed water infiltration. The areas chosen for aquifer recharge with infiltration basins are mainly composed of anthrosol with more than 1 m deep and fine sand texture, which allows an average infiltration velocity of up to 1 m d(-1). These characteristics will provide a final polishing treatment of the reclaimed water after infiltration (soil aquifer treatment (SAT)), suitable for the removal of the residual load (trace organics, nutrients, heavy metals and pathogens). The risk of groundwater contamination is low since the water table in the anthrosol areas ranges from 10 m to 50 m. Oil the other hand, these depths allow a guaranteed unsaturated area suitable for SAT. An area of 13,944 ha was selected for study, but only 1607 ha are suitable for reclaimed water infiltration. Approximately 1280 m(2) were considered enough to set up 4 infiltration basins to work in flooding and drying cycles.

Interest rate exposure of Spanish banks: A nonparametric analysis

Interest rate risk is one of the major financial risks faced by banks due to the very nature of the banking business. The most common approach in the literature has been to estimate the impact of interest rate risk on banks using a simple linear regression model. However, the relationship between interest rate changes and bank stock returns does not need to be exclusively linear. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the interest rate exposure of the Spanish banking industry employing both parametric and non parametric estimation methods. Its main contribution is to use, for the first time in the context of banks’ interest rate risk, a nonparametric regression technique that avoids the assumption of a specific functional form. One the one hand, it is found that the Spanish banking sector exhibits a remarkable degree of interest rate exposure, although the impact of interest rate changes on bank stock returns has significantly declined following the introduction of the euro. Further, a pattern of positive exposure emerges during the post-euro period. On the other hand, the results corresponding to the nonparametric model support the expansion of the conventional linear model in an attempt to gain a greater insight into the actual degree of exposure.

What drives corporate default risk premia? Evidence from the CDS market

This paper studies the evolution of the default risk premia for European firms during the years surrounding the recent credit crisis. We employ the information embedded in Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and Moody’s KMV EDF default probabilities to analyze the common factors driving this risk premia. The risk premium is characterized in several directions: Firstly, we perform a panel data analysis to capture the relationship between CDS spreads and actual default probabilities. Secondly, we employ the intensity framework of Jarrow et al. (2005) in order to measure the theoretical effect of risk premium on expected bond returns. Thirdly, we carry out a dynamic panel data to identify the macroeconomic sources of risk premium. Finally, a vector autoregressive model analyzes which proportion of the co-movement is attributable to financial or macro variables. Our estimations report coefficients for risk premium substantially higher than previously referred for US firms and a time varying behavior. A dominant factor explains around 60% of the common movements in risk premia. Additionally, empirical evidence suggests a public-to-private risk transfer between the sovereign CDS spreads and corporate risk premia.

Risk factors for the increasing trend in low birth weight among live births born by vaginal delivery, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To identify risk factors for low birth weight (LBW) among live births by vaginal delivery and to determine if the disappearance of the association between LBW and socioeconomic factors was due to confounding by cesarean section. METHODS: Data were obtained from two population-based cohorts of singleton live births in Ribeirão Preto, Southeastern Brazil. The first one comprised 4,698 newborns from June 1978 to May 1979 and the second included 1,399 infants born from May to August 1994. The risks for LBW were tested in a logistic model, including the interaction of the year of survey and all independent variables under analysis. RESULTS: The incidence of LBW among vaginal deliveries increased from 7.8% in 1978--79 to 10% in 1994. The risk was higher for: female or preterm infants; newborns of non-cohabiting mothers; newborns whose mothers had fewer prenatal visits or few years of education; first-born infants; and those who had smoking mothers. The interaction of the year of survey with gestational age indicated that the risk of LBW among preterm infants fell from 17.75 to 8.71 in 15 years. The mean birth weight decreased more significantly among newborns from qualified families, who also had the highest increase in preterm birth and non-cohabitation. CONCLUSIONS: LBW among vaginal deliveries increased mainly due to a rise in the proportion of preterm births and non-cohabiting mothers. The association between cesarean section and LBW tended to cover up socioeconomic differences in the likelihood of LBW. When vaginal deliveries were analyzed independently, these socioeconomic differences come up again.

A risk-averse optimization model for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty

In this paper, a stochastic programming approach is proposed for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty. Uncertainty in the energy market prices is the main cause of high volatility of profits achieved by power producers. The volatile and intermittent nature of wind energy represents another source of uncertainty. Hence, each uncertain parameter is modeled by scenarios, where each scenario represents a plausible realization of the uncertain parameters with an associated occurrence probability. Also, an appropriate risk measurement is considered. The proposed approach is applied on a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dengue and the risk of urban yellow fever reintroduction in São Paulo State, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To propose a mathematical method for the estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number, R0, of urban yellow fever in a dengue-infested area. METHODS: The method is based on the assumption that, as the same vector (Aedes aegypti) causes both infections, all the quantities related to the mosquito, estimated from the initial phase of dengue epidemic, could be applied to yellow fever dynamics. It is demonstrated that R0 for yellow fever is, on average, 43% lower than that for dengue. This difference is due to the longer dengue viremia and its shorter extrinsic incubation period. RESULTS: In this study the analysis was expanded to the epidemiological situation of dengue in São Paulo in the year 2001. The total number of dengue cases increased from 3,582 in 2000 to 51,348 in 2001. It was then calculated R0 for yellow fever for every city which have shown R0 of dengue greater than 1. It was also estimated the total number of unprotected people living in highly risky areas for urban yellow fever. CONCLUSIONS: Currently there is a great number of non-vaccinated people living in Aedes aegypti infested area in the state of São Paulo.

Knee angular displacement analysis in amateur ballet dancers: a pilot study

Ballet gestures are highly non-anatomical and physiological, leading to compensatory behaviors. The knee joint is most affected by this behavior, leading to an increase risk of injury. Our purpose is to describe the knee angular displacement in amateur dancers, during a demi-plié exercise, with emphasis on valgus mechanisms frequency. Methods: 192 demi-pliés collected in six amateur female dancers (mean age = 15.33 ± 1.37 years), were analyzed regarding sagittal and frontal plane angular displacement, with an electrogoniometer connected to a signal acquisition unit at 1000 Hz. Results: all subjects presented valgus peaks along the trials, despite the global varus tendency of the knee frontal plane behavior. A significant positive correlation between the frequency of valgus and practice time was noted. Discussion: A variable angular frontal displacement was observed, with some trials comprehending a high incidence of valgus peaks along the ascending or descending phase of the demi-plié exercise. Conclusion: the frontal knee angle behavior is variable. It may present fast peaks of valgus or an initial trend of varus/valgus that is different from the global varus trend. The analysis of the activity should be considered in the training. The practice time may be related to the observed behavior.

Dietary patterns and risk of oral cancer: a case-control study in São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the association between dietary patterns and oral cancer. METHODS: The study, part of a Latin American multicenter hospital-based case-control study, was conducted in São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, between November 1998 and March 2002 and included 366 incident cases of oral cancer and 469 controls, frequency-matched with cases by sex and age. Dietary data were collected using a food frequency questionnaire. The risk associated with the intake of food groups defined a posteriori, through factor analysis (called factors), was assessed. The first factor, labeled "prudent," was characterized by the intake of vegetables, fruit, cheese, and poultry. The second factor, "traditional," consisted of the intake of rice, pasta, pulses, and meat. The third factor, "snacks," was characterized as the intake of bread, butter, salami, cheese, cakes, and desserts. The fourth, "monotonous," was inversely associated with the intake of fruit, vegetables and most other food items. Factor scores for each component retained were calculated for cases and controls. After categorization of factor scores into tertiles according to the distribution of controls, odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using unconditional multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: "Traditional" factor showed an inverse association with cancer (OR=0.51; 95% CI: 0.32; 0.81, p-value for trend 0.14), whereas "monotonous" was positively associated with the outcome (OR=1.78; 95% CI: 1.78; 2.85, p-value for trend <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The study data suggest that the traditional Brazilian diet, consisting of rice and beans plus moderate amounts of meat, may confer protection against oral cancer, independently of any other risk factors such as alcohol intake and smoking.

Risk-factors for antepartum fetal deaths in the city of São Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess risk factors for antepartum fetal deaths. METHODS: A population-based case-control study was carried out in the city of São Paulo from August 2000 to January 2001. Subjects were selected from a birth cohort from a linked birth and death certificate database. Cases were 164 antepartum fetal deaths and controls were drawn from a random sample of 313 births surviving at least 28 days. Information was collected from birth and death certificates, hospital records and home interviews. A hierarchical conceptual framework guided the logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Statistically significant factors associated with antepartum fetal death were: mother without or recent marital union; mother's education under four years; mothers with previous low birth weight infant; mothers with hypertension, diabetes, bleeding during pregnancy; no or inadequate prenatal care; congenital malformation and intrauterine growth restriction. The highest population attributable fractions were for inadequacy of prenatal care (40%), hypertension (27%), intrauterine growth restriction (30%) and absence of a long-standing union (26%). CONCLUSIONS: Proximal biological risk factors are most important in antepartum fetal deaths. However, distal factors - mother's low education and marital status - are also significant. Improving access to and quality of prenatal care could have a large impact on fetal mortality.

Treatment outcomes in pulmonary tuberculosis and associated factors worldwide: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction - The increasing of TB burden is usually related to inadequate case detection, diagnosis and cure. Global targets for TB control, adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO), are to detect 70% of the estimated incidence of sputum smear-positive TB and to cure 85% of newly detected cases of sputum smear-positive TB. Factors associated with unsuccessful treatment outcomes are closely related to TB risk factors. Objectives - To describe treatment success rates in pulmonary TB cases and to identify factors associated with unsuccessful treatment outcomes, according to ad-hoc studies.

Risk factors for metabolic bone disease in Crohn's disease patients

Background: The aim was to evaluate the presence of metabolic bone disease (MBD) in patients with Crohn’s disease (CD) and to identify potential etiologic factors. Methods: The case–control study included 99 patients with CD and 56 controls with a similar age and gender distribution. Both groups had dual-energy x-ray absorptionmetry and a nutritional evaluation. Single nucleotide polymorphisms at the IL1, TNF-a, LTa, and IL-6 genes were analyzed in patients only. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software. Results: The prevalence of MBD was significantly higher in patients (P ¼ 0.006). CD patients with osteoporosis were older (P < 0.005), small bowel involvement and surgical resections were more frequent (P < 0.005), they more often exhibited a penetrating or stricturing phenotype (P < 0.05), duration of disease over 15 years (P < 0.005), and body mass index (BMI) under 18.5 kg/m2 (P < 0.01) were more often found. No association was found with steroid use. Patients with a Z-score < 2.0 more frequently had chronic active disease (P < 0.05). With regard to diet, low vitamin K intake was more frequent (P ¼ 0.03) and intake of total, monounsaturated, and polyunsaturated fat was higher in patients with Z-score < 2.0 (P < 0.05). With respect to genetics, carriage of the polymorphic allele for LTa252 A/G was associated with a higher risk of osteoporosis (P ¼ 0.02). Regression analysis showed that age over 40 years, chronic active disease, and previous colonic resections were independently associated with the risk of developing MBD. Conclusions: The prevalence of MBD was significantly higher in CD patients. Besides the usual risk factors, we observed that factors related to chronic active and long-lasting disease increased the risk of MBD.

Q192R polymorphism of the paraoxonase-1 gene as a risk factor for obesity in Portuguese women

Introduction - Obesity became a major public health problem as a result of its increasing prevalence worldwide. Paraoxonase-1 (PON1) is an esterase able to protect membranes and lipoproteins from oxidative modifications. At the PON1 gene, several polymorphisms in the promoter and coding regions have been identified. The aims of this study were i) to assess PON1 L55M and Q192R polymorphisms as a risk factor for obesity in women; ii) to compare PON1 activity according to the expression of each allele in L55M and Q192R polymorphisms; iii) to compare PON1 activity between obese and normal-weight women. Materials and methods - We studied 75 healthy (35.9±8.2 years) and 81 obese women (34.3±8.2 years). Inclusion criteria for obese subjects were body mass index ≥30 kg/m2 and absence of inflammatory/neoplasic conditions or kidney/hepatic dysfunction. The two PON1 polymorphisms were assessed by real-time PCR with TaqMan probes. PON1 enzymatic activity was assessed by spectrophotometric methods, using paraoxon as a substrate. Results - No significant differences were found for PON1 activity between normal and obese women. Nevertheless, PON1 activity was greater (P<0.01) for the RR genotype (in Q192R polymorphism) and for the LL genotype (in L55M polymorphism). The frequency of allele R of Q192R polymorphism was significantly higher in obese women (P<0.05) and was associated with an increased risk of obesity (odds ratio=2.0 – 95% confidence interval (1.04; 3.87)). Conclusion - 55M and Q192R polymorphisms influence PON1 activity. The allele R of the Q192R polymorphism is associated with an increased risk for development of obesity among Portuguese Caucasian premenopausal women.

Core group approach to identify college students at risk for sexually transmitted infections

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the core group for sexually transmitted infections (STI) among college students. METHODS: Cross-sectional study carried out in a convenience sample comprising 711 college students of the public university of Morelos, Mexico, between 2001 and 2003. Sociodemographic and sexual behavior information were collected using self-applied questionnaires. Herpes simplex 2 (HSV-2) infection was tested in the blood. The number of sexual partners in the last year and cocaine consumption were used as indicators to construct the dependent variable "level of STI risk" in three categories: low, medium and high risk (core group). A multinomial analysis was conducted to evaluate whether different sex behaviors were associated with the variable "level of STI risk". RESULTS: There was significant association between HSV-2 seroprevalence and the variable "level of STI risk": 13%, 5.6% and 3.8% were found in high (core group), medium and low categories, respectively. There were gender differences regarding the core group. Men started having sexual intercourse earlier, had more sex partners, higher alcohol and drug consumption, higher frequency of sex intercourse with sex workers, exchanging sex for money, occasional and concurrent partners compared to women. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings suggest existing contextual characteristics in the study population that affect their sex behavior. In Mexico, the cultural conception of sexuality is determined mainly by gender differences where men engage in higher risky sexual behavior than women.

Spatial analysis of urban violence based on emergency room data

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the spatial intensity of urban violence events using wavelet-based methods and emergency room data. METHODS: Information on victims attended at the emergency room of a public hospital in the city of São Paulo, Southeastern Brazil, from January 1, 2002 to January 11, 2003 were obtained from hospital records. The spatial distribution of 3,540 events was recorded and a uniform random procedure was used to allocate records with incomplete addresses. Point processes and wavelet analysis technique were used to estimate the spatial intensity, defined as the expected number of events by unit area. RESULTS: Of all georeferenced points, 59% were accidents and 40% were assaults. There is a non-homogeneous spatial distribution of the events with high concentration in two districts and three large avenues in the southern area of the city of São Paulo. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital records combined with methodological tools to estimate intensity of events are useful to study urban violence. The wavelet analysis is useful in the computation of the expected number of events and their respective confidence bands for any sub-region and, consequently, in the specification of risk estimates that could be used in decision-making processes for public policies.

HIV/AIDS risk among female sex workers who use crack in Southern Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To understand the social context of female sex workers who use crack and its impact on HIV/AIDS risk behaviors. METHODODOLOGICAL PROCEDURES: Qualitative study carried out in Foz do Iguaçu, Southern Brazil, in 2003. Twenty-six in-depth interviews and two focus groups were carried out with female commercial sex workers who frequently use crack. In-depth interviews with health providers, community leaders and public policy managers, as well as field observations were also conducted. Transcript data was entered into Atlas.ti software and grounded theory methodology was used to analyze the data and develop a conceptual model as a result of this study. ANALYSIS OF RESULTS: Female sex workers who use crack had low self-perceived HIV risk in spite of being engaged in risky behaviors (e.g. unprotected sex with multiple partners). Physical and sexual violence among clients, occasional and stable partners was widespread jeopardizing negotiation and consistent condom use. According to health providers, community leaders and public policy managers, several female sex workers who use crack are homeless or live in slums, and rarely have access to health services, voluntary counseling and testing, social support, pre-natal and reproductive care. CONCLUSIONS: Female sex workers who use crack experience a plethora of health and social problems, which apparently affect their risks for HIV infection. Low-threshold, user-friendly and gender-tailored interventions should be implemented, in order to increase the access to health and social-support services among this population. Those initiatives might also increase their access to reproductive health in general, and to preventive strategies focusing on HIV/AIDS and other sexually transmitted infections.