Determinants of exchange rates: An empirical analysis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Report of a traineeship : audit of antidepressant prescribing in Primary and Mental Care: how to address appropriateness and keep a curb on costs. A tool suitable for all contexts?

RESUMO: Este é o relatório de um estágio realizado na Autoridade de Saúde Local de Bolonha com o objectivo de desenvolver capacidades e competências na área de projectos orientados para a avaliação com base epidemiológica. As prescrições de anti-depressivos aumentaram consideravelmente em todo o mundo durante as últimas décadas. O uso cada vez maior dos agentes mais dispendiosos desempenha um papel na subida do custo dos tratamentos. A Autoridade de Saúde Local de Bolonha implementou um processo de auditoria com o objectivo de melhorar a adequação das prescrições de pacientes externos, centrando-se em dois anti-depressivos de marca ainda protegidos por patente, Escitalopram e Duloxetine. Os Departamentos de Cuidados de Saúde Primários e de Cuidados de Saúde Mental, assim como o Departamento Farmacêutico e a Unidade de Gestão Clínica, estiveram envolvidos na fase de planeamento da auditoria. O grupo da auditoria, maioritariamente composto por médicos de clínica geral e psiquiatras, reuniu e analisou provas da eficácia e segurança dos anti-depressivos. Os dados sobre as prescrições das Unidades de Cuidados de Saúde Primários e dos Centros de Saúde Mental Comunitários da Autoridade de Saúde Local (866.294 habitantes) foram comparados, em particular as taxas de consumo de Escitalopram e Duloxetine. O grupo da auditoria definiu os standards a serem abordados, os indicadores a serem avaliados e as medidas a empreender para atingir os objectivos definidos. As directrizes do NICE sobre a depressão foram escolhidas como referência. O objectivo da auditoria foi definido como evitar o Escitalopram e Duloxetine como medicamentos de primeira escolha num tratamento anti-depressivo. De modo a verificar a eficácia das medidas empreendidas foi seleccionado um indicador, consistindo numa redução de 25% das prescrições de ambos os anti-depressivos na prática clínica de pacientes externos e numa redução de 20% da variabilidade nas Unidades de Cuidados de Saúde Primários. O relatório retrospectivo pré-auditoria (Janeiro a Abril de 2012) revelou que os tratamentos com anti-depressivos para pacientes externos eram prescritos pelos médicos de clínica geral em mais de90% dos casos. As medidas da auditoria foram implementadas entre Novembro de 2012 e Maio de 2013. Algumas medidas relevantes foram integradas com a revisão da auditoria, tais como reuniões educacionais de pequena escala com os médicos de clínica geral e psiquiatras, visitas de apoio do assessor de prescrições da Autoridade de Saúde Local aos médicos de clínica geral e Centros de Saúde Mental Comunitários, panfletos para profissionais com informação retirada das directrizes clínicas do NICE, implementação de um serviço de consulta na Web para médicos de clínica geral sobre provas relativas a anti-depressivos. O relatório de feedback é aguardado em Novembro de 2013 depois de se verificar nos standards atingidos a eficácia das medidas implementadas. Foi realizada uma análise SWOT para comprovar as forças e fraquezas, as oportunidades e ameaças do processo. Como identificação de fraquezas poderá ser útil identificar estratégias relevantes para melhoria interna, para que o conhecimento das ameaças possa amortizar factores que possam ter impactos adversos que fujam ao controlo do Departamento de Saúde Mental. Uma melhor compreensão das forças e das oportunidades facilita a consecução dos objectivos estabelecidos no projecto. O primeiro, mas não o último, resultado deste processo consistiu numa maior integração entre os Cuidados de Saúde Primários e de Saúde Mental, permitindo assim que a Autoridade de Saúde Local coloque as alterações em prática.------------ABSTRACT: This is the report of a traineeship held in the Local Health Authority of Bologna with the aim to develop skills and competencies in the field of epidemiogically based evaluation oriented projects. Antidepressants prescriptions have considerably increased all over the world in the last decades. The increasing use of the most expensive agents plays a part in the rising cost of treatments. The Local Health Authority of Bologna has implemented an audit process aimed at improving the appropriateness of outpatient prescriptions focusing on the two branded antidepressants still protected by patent, Escitalopram and Duloxetine. The Primary Care and the Mental Health Care Departments, as well as the Pharmaceutical Department and the Clinical Governance Unit, were involved in the planning phase of the audit. The audit group, mainly composed of general practitioners and psychiatrists, collected and analyzed scientific evidence on effectiveness and safety of antidepressants. Data on prescriptions of Primary Care Units and Community Mental Health Centers of the Local Health Authority (866.294 inhabitants) were compared, in particular consumption rates of Escitalopram and Duloxetine. The audit group defined the standards to be addressed, the indicators to be evaluated and the actions aimed at reaching the defined goals. NICE guidelines on depression were chosen as reference. The aim of the audit was settled as avoiding Escitalopram and Duloxetine as first choice drugs starting an AD treatment. In order to check the efficacy of the actions undertaken an indicator was selected, consisting in a reduction of 25% of prescriptions of both ADs in outpatient practice and in a 20% reduction of To develop skills and competencies across Primary Care Units. The pre-audit retrospective report (January-April 2012) showed that outpatient antidepressant treatments were prescribed by GPs in over 90% of cases. Audit actions were implemented between November 2012 and May 2013. Some relevant actions have been integrated with the audit review, such as small-scale educational meetings with GPs and psychiatrists, outreach visits of the LHA prescribing adviser to GPs and CMHCs,leaflets for professionals with information extracted from NICE clinical guidelines, implementation of a web consultation service for GPs about evidence on antidepressants. The feedback report is expected in November 2013 after checking through the standards attained the effectiveness of actions implemented. A SWOT Analysis was carried out to evidence the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the process. As identification of weaknesses may be useful to identify relevant strategies for internal improvement, so the knowledge of threats can amortize factors that may have adverse impacts beyond the control of the Mental Health Department. Better understanding of the strengths and the opportunities facilitates the achievement of the goals set in the project. The first and not least upshot of this process has consisted in further integration between Primary and Mental Health Care, thus enabling the LHA to put the change into practice.

Amorphous silicon e 3D sensors applied to object detection

Nowadays, existing 3D scanning cameras and microscopes in the market use digital or discrete sensors, such as CCDs or CMOS for object detection applications. However, these combined systems are not fast enough for some application scenarios since they require large data processing resources and can be cumbersome. Thereby, there is a clear interest in exploring the possibilities and performances of analogue sensors such as arrays of position sensitive detectors with the final goal of integrating them in 3D scanning cameras or microscopes for object detection purposes. The work performed in this thesis deals with the implementation of prototype systems in order to explore the application of object detection using amorphous silicon position sensors of 32 and 128 lines which were produced in the clean room at CENIMAT-CEMOP. During the first phase of this work, the fabrication and the study of the static and dynamic specifications of the sensors as well as their conditioning in relation to the existing scientific and technological knowledge became a starting point. Subsequently, relevant data acquisition and suitable signal processing electronics were assembled. Various prototypes were developed for the 32 and 128 array PSD sensors. Appropriate optical solutions were integrated to work together with the constructed prototypes, allowing the required experiments to be carried out and allowing the achievement of the results presented in this thesis. All control, data acquisition and 3D rendering platform software was implemented for the existing systems. All these components were combined together to form several integrated systems for the 32 and 128 line PSD 3D sensors. The performance of the 32 PSD array sensor and system was evaluated for machine vision applications such as for example 3D object rendering as well as for microscopy applications such as for example micro object movement detection. Trials were also performed involving the 128 array PSD sensor systems. Sensor channel non-linearities of approximately 4 to 7% were obtained. Overall results obtained show the possibility of using a linear array of 32/128 1D line sensors based on the amorphous silicon technology to render 3D profiles of objects. The system and setup presented allows 3D rendering at high speeds and at high frame rates. The minimum detail or gap that can be detected by the sensor system is approximately 350 μm when using this current setup. It is also possible to render an object in 3D within a scanning angle range of 15º to 85º and identify its real height as a function of the scanning angle and the image displacement distance on the sensor. Simple and not so simple objects, such as a rubber and a plastic fork, can be rendered in 3D properly and accurately also at high resolution, using this sensor and system platform. The nip structure sensor system can detect primary and even derived colors of objects by a proper adjustment of the integration time of the system and by combining white, red, green and blue (RGB) light sources. A mean colorimetric error of 25.7 was obtained. It is also possible to detect the movement of micrometer objects using the 32 PSD sensor system. This kind of setup offers the possibility to detect if a micro object is moving, what are its dimensions and what is its position in two dimensions, even at high speeds. Results show a non-linearity of about 3% and a spatial resolution of < 2µm.

Enrichment of a PHA producing microbial community in a continuous bioreactor setup

Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs) are biosynthetic polyesters, biodegradable and biocompatible making them of great interest for industrial purposes. The use of low value substrates with mixed microbial communities (MMC) is a strategy currently used to decrease the elevated PHA production costs. PHA production process requires an important step for selection and enrichment of PHA-storing microorganisms which is usually carried out in a Sequencing Batch Reactor (SBR). The aim of this study was to optimize the PHA accumulating culture selection stage using a 2-stage Continuous Stirrer Tank Reactor (CSTR) system. The system was composed by two separate feast and famine bioreactors operated continuously, mimicking the feast and famine phases in a SBR system. Acetate was used as carbon source and biomass seed was highly enriched in Plasticicumulans acidivorans obtained from activated sludge. The system was operated under two different sets of conditions (setup 1 and 2), maintaining a system total retention time of 12 hours and an OLR of 2.25 Cmmol/L.h-1. An average PHB-content of 3.3 % wt was obtained in setup 1 and 4.8% wt in setup 2. Several other experiments were performed in order to better understand the continuous system behaviour, using biomass from the continuous system. With the fed-batch experiment a maximum of 8.1% PHB was stored and the maximum substrate uptake and specific growth rates obtained in the growth experiment (1.15 Cmol Cmol-1.h-1 and 0.53 Cmol Cmol-1.h-1) were close to the ones from continuous system (1.12 Cmol Cmol-1.h-1 and 0.59 Cmol Cmol-1.h-1). The microbial community was characterized trough microscopic visualization, Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis (DGGE) analysis and Fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH). The last studied performed mimicked the continuous system by building up a SBR system with all the same operational conditions while adding an extra acetate dosage during the 12 h cycle, simulating the substrate passing from the feast to the famine reactors under continuous operation. It was shown that possibly the continuous system was not able to efficiently select for PHB storing organisms under the operational conditions imposed, although the selected culture was capable of consuming the substrate and grow fast. This main conclusion might have resulted from two major factors affecting the system performance: the ammonium concentration in the Feast reactor and the amount of substrate leaching from the Feast to the Famine reactor.

Automatic delimitation of the clinical region of interest in ultra-wide field of view images of the retina

Retinal ultra-wide field of view images (fundus images) provides the visu-alization of a large part of the retina though, artifacts may appear in those images. Eyelashes and eyelids often cover the clinical region of interest and worse, eye-lashes can be mistaken with arteries and/or veins when those images are put through automatic diagnosis or segmentation software creating, in those cases, the appearance of false positives results. Correcting this problem, the first step in the development of qualified auto-matic diseases diagnosis programs can be done and in that way the development of an objective tool to assess diseases eradicating the human error from those processes can also be achieved. In this work the development of a tool that automatically delimitates the clinical region of interest is proposed by retrieving features from the images that will be analyzed by an automatic classifier. This automatic classifier will evaluate the information and will decide which part of the image is of interest and which part contains artifacts. The results were validated by implementing a software in C# language and validated through a statistical analysis. From those results it was confirmed that the methodology presented is capable of detecting artifacts and selecting the clin-ical region of interest in fundus images of the retina.

Synanthropic triatomines (Hemiptera, Reduviidae) in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil: geographical distribution and natural Trypanosoma infection rates between 2006 and 2007

INTRODUCTION: The present study shows a descriptive analysis of triatomine occurrence and its natural Trypanosoma infection rates in the state of Pernambuco, Brazil, between 2006 and 2007. METHODS: Entomological data for the species, such as specimens captured in both intra and peridomiciles and natural infection index, were obtained via domiciliary capture in 147 municipalities from 11 Regional Managements of Health. The database was obtained from a sample of insects (100% infected and 20% non-infected) sent to the Central Laboratory of Pernambuco. RESULTS: A total of 18,029 triatomines were analyzed from 138 municipalities of the state. Triatoma pseudomaculata (35%), Triatoma brasiliensis (34%), and Panstrongylus lutzi (25%) were the most captured species. These species also showed a widespread geographical distribution in the state. Panstrongylus megistus, Triatoma petrocchiae, Triatoma melanocephala, Triatoma sordida, Rhodnius nasutus, Rhodnius neglectus, and Triatoma infestans showed more limited geographical distribution and lower relative abundance. The parasitological research showed that 8.8% of the triatomines were naturally infected with flagellates morphologically similar to Trypanosoma cruzi and 91.3% of them were captured inside houses in 113 municipalities. P. lutzi showed the highest rates of natural infection. CONCLUSIONS: After the control of T. infestans, synanthropic species, such as T. brasiliensis, T. pseudomaculata, and P. lutzi, maintain the risk of T. cruzi transmission to humans in the state of Pernambuco. These species are widely distributed, and infected specimens have been found inside houses. Thus, an enhanced surveillance and vector control of Chagas disease is recommended in Pernambuco.

Evaluation of the welfare impact of regulating mobile termination rates in Portugal

Following the European Commission’s 2009 Recommendation on the Regulatory Treatment of Fixed and Mobile Termination Rates in the EU, the Portuguese regulatory authority (ANACOM) decided to reduce termination prices in mobile networks to their long-run incremental cost (LRIC). Nevertheless, no serious quantitative assessment of the potential effects of this decision was carried out. In this paper, we adapt and calibrate the Harbord and Hoernig (2014) model of the UK mobile telephony market to the Portuguese reality, and simulate the likely impact on consumer surplus, profits and welfare of four different regulatory approaches: pure LRIC, reciprocal termination charges with fixed networks, “bill & keep”, and asymmetric termination rates. Our results show that reducing MTRs does increase social welfare, profits and consumer surplus in the fixed market, but mobile subscribers are seriously harmed by this decision.

Productivity gains from migration: An analysis of Cape Verdean return migrants

Are return migrants more productive than non-migrants? If so, is it a causal effect or simply self-selection? Existing literature has not reached a consensus on the role of return migration for origin countries. To answer these research questions, an empirical analysis was performed based on household data collected in Cape Verde. One of the most common identification problems in the migration literature is the presence of migrant self-selection. In order to disentangle potential selection bias, we use instrumental variable estimation using variation provided by unemployment rates in migrant destination countries, which is compared with OLS and Nearest Neighbor Matching (NNM) methods. The results using the instrumental variable approach provide evidence of labour income gains due to return migration, while OLS underestimates the coefficient of interest. This bias points towards negative self-selection of return migrants on unobserved characteristics, although the different estimates cannot be distinguished statistically. Interestingly, migration duration and occupational changes after migration do not seem to influence post-migration income. There is weak evidence that return migrants from the United States have higher income gains caused by migration than the ones who returned from Portugal.

Empirical evidence on the difference between the effective and the statutory tax rates for listed groups in Germany

The difference between the statutory and effective tax rate for listed groups is a complex variable influenced by a variety of factors. This paper aims to analyze whether this difference exists for listed groups in the German market and tests which factors have an impact on it. Thus the sample consists of 130 corporations listed in the three major German stock indices. The findings suggest that the companies that pay less than the statutory rate clearly outweigh the ones that pay more, and that the income earned from associated companies has a significant impact on this difference.

Phlebotomine sandfly fauna and natural Leishmania infection rates in a rural area of Cerrado (tropical savannah) in Nova Mutum, State of Mato Grosso in Brazil

Introduction American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) has been reported in every municipality of the State of Mato Grosso, Brazil, but the transmission epidemiology remains poorly understood. Our study was developed in a rural area of the Nova Mutum municipality where four autochthonous cases of ACL were reported in 2009. Our aims were to describe the local phlebotomine sandfly fauna and to investigate the infection rates and infecting Leishmania species in the captured sandflies. Methods Entomological captures were performed bimonthly at 10 fixed sites close to the edge of a forested area between June 2011 and April 2012. Results A total of 3,743 phlebotomine sandflies belonging to 31 distinct species were captured. Approximately 75% of the specimens were females. The most abundant species (45.4%) was Lutzomyia antunesi, which was consistently captured at every site. Species that are epidemiologically important for ACL, such as L. flaviscutellata, L. whitmani and L. umbratilis, were also captured. L. antunesi and L. ubiquitalis were naturally infected by Leishmania braziliensis or Le. guyanensis, with minimum infection rates of 0.88% and 6.67%, respectively. Surprisingly, L. antunesi was infected by Le. infantum (synonym chagasi). Conclusions The natural infection of L. antunesi and L. ubiquitalis by Leishmania sp. suggests that these species might play a role in the zoonotic cycle of ACL in Nova Mutum. The presence of Le. infantum in L. antunesi suggests that there may be a risk of an outbreak of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in Nova Mutum.

Detection of arboviruses of public health interest in free-living New World primates (Sapajus spp.; Alouatta caraya) captured in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

Introduction A sero-epidemiological survey was undertaken to detect the circulation of arboviruses in free-living non-human primates. Methods Blood samples were obtained from 16 non-human primates (13 Sapajus spp. and three Alouatta caraya) that were captured using terrestrial traps and anesthetic darts in woodland regions in the municipalities of Campo Grande, Aquidauana, Jardim, Miranda and Corumbá in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The samples were sent to the Instituto Evandro Chagas (IEC) in Ananindeua, Pará, Brazil, to detect antibodies against 19 species of arboviruses using a hemagglutination inhibition test (HI). Results Of the 16 primates investigated in the present study, five (31.2%) were serologically positive for an arbovirus. Of these five, two (12.5%) exhibited antibodies to the Flavivirus genus, one (6.2%) exhibited a monotypic reaction to Cacipacoré virus, one (6.2%) was associated with Mayaro virus, and one (6.2%) was positive for Oropouche virus. Conclusions Based on the positive serology observed in the present study, it was possible to conclude that arboviruses circulate among free-living primates. The viruses in the areas studied might have been introduced by infected humans or by primates from endemic or enzootic areas. Studies of this nature, as well as efficient and continuous surveillance programs, are needed to monitor viral activities in endemic and enzootic regions.

Genome-scale metabolic network reconstruction of Polaromonas sp. strain JS666: analysis of cDCE degradation rates and design of experiments for bioremediation improvement

Release of chloroethene compounds into the environment often results in groundwater contamination, which puts people at risk of exposure by drinking contaminated water. cDCE (cis-1,2-dichloroethene) accumulation on subsurface environments is a common environmental problem due to stagnation and partial degradation of other precursor chloroethene species. Polaromonas sp. strain JS666 apparently requires no exotic growth factors to be used as a bioaugmentation agent for aerobic cDCE degradation. Although being the only suitable microorganism found capable of such, further studies are needed for improving the intrinsic bioremediation rates and fully comprehend the metabolic processes involved. In order to do so, a metabolic model, iJS666, was reconstructed from genome annotation and available bibliographic data. FVA (Flux Variability Analysis) and FBA (Flux Balance Analysis) techniques were used to satisfactory validate the predictive capabilities of the iJS666 model. The iJS666 model was able to predict biomass growth for different previously tested conditions, allowed to design key experiments which should be done for further model improvement and, also, produced viable predictions for the use of biostimulant metabolites in the cDCE biodegradation.

Impact of the antipneumococcal conjugate vaccine on the occurrence of infectious respiratory diseases and hospitalization rates in children

INTRODUCTION: In 2010, to reduce the occurrence of serious pneumococcal disease, the Ministry of Health in Brazil incorporated the 10-valent pneumococcal vaccine in the immunization schedule of children younger than two years of age. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of vaccination on the incidence of infectious respiratory diseases in infants before and after the introduction of the 10-valent pneumococcal vaccine. METHODS: This cross-sectional study involved primary care and hospital networks from a city in Minas Gerais State, Brazil, between 2009 and 2012. RESULTS: A 40% reduction in the prevalence of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) was observed after introducing the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine. Male children were 28% more likely to develop the disease. The prevalence ratio ([PR] = 1.96, 95% CI: 1.52 to 2.53, p < 0.05) suggested that not being vaccinated was associated with the occurrence of pneumonia. The prevalence of CAP was 70% lower (PR 0.30, 95% CI: 0.24 to 0.37, p<0.05) in children vaccinated as recommended compared to children with delayed vaccination, suggesting that the updated vaccine schedule improves protection. CONCLUSIONS: Immunization with the 10-valent pneumococcal vaccine appeared to reduce the number of pneumonia cases in children during the study period. Prospective studies are needed to confirm the efficacy of the vaccine against the occurrence of pneumococcal pneumonia.

Covered interest parity

This report aims to study the evolution of the Covered Interest Rate Parity (CIP) over the course of the last years. With the 2007 financial crisis many fundamental relationships changed, and CIP was not an exception. To infer whether or not this was an isolate event, the behaviour of the CIP during the European Sovereign debt crisis was studied. Currency pairs such as EURUSD showed significant CIP deviations during both crises. This work shows that currently, spreads are mostly explained by counterparty risk and market sentiment factors, which are extremely different factors from the ones explaining the spread during 2003-06. Key

Evaluation of arboviruses of public health interest in free-living non-human primates (Alouatta spp., Callithrix spp., Sapajus spp.) in Brazil

INTRODUCTION: The aim of the present study was to evaluate the presence of arboviruses from the Flavivirus genus in asymptomatic free-living non-human primates (NHPs) living in close contact with humans and vectors in the States of Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. METHODS: NHP sera samples (total n = 80, Alouatta spp. n = 07, Callithrix spp. n = 29 and Sapajus spp. n = 44) were screened for the presence of viral genomes using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and 10% polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis techniques. RESULTS: All of the samples were negative for the Flavivirus genome following the 10% polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis analysis. CONCLUSIONS: These negative results indicate that the analyzed animals were not infected with arboviruses from the Flavivirus genus and did not represent a risk for viral transmission through vectors during the period in which the samples were collected.