Dynamic Programming Approaches for Estimating and Applying Large-scale Discrete Choice Models

People go through their life making all kinds of decisions, and some of these decisions affect their demand for transportation, for example, their choices of where to live and where to work, how and when to travel and which route to take. Transport related choices are typically time dependent and characterized by large number of alternatives that can be spatially correlated. This thesis deals with models that can be used to analyze and predict discrete choices in large-scale networks. The proposed models and methods are highly relevant for, but not limited to, transport applications. We model decisions as sequences of choices within the dynamic discrete choice framework, also known as parametric Markov decision processes. Such models are known to be difficult to estimate and to apply to make predictions because dynamic programming problems need to be solved in order to compute choice probabilities. In this thesis we show that it is possible to explore the network structure and the flexibility of dynamic programming so that the dynamic discrete choice modeling approach is not only useful to model time dependent choices, but also makes it easier to model large-scale static choices. The thesis consists of seven articles containing a number of models and methods for estimating, applying and testing large-scale discrete choice models. In the following we group the contributions under three themes: route choice modeling, large-scale multivariate extreme value (MEV) model estimation and nonlinear optimization algorithms. Five articles are related to route choice modeling. We propose different dynamic discrete choice models that allow paths to be correlated based on the MEV and mixed logit models. The resulting route choice models become expensive to estimate and we deal with this challenge by proposing innovative methods that allow to reduce the estimation cost. For example, we propose a decomposition method that not only opens up for possibility of mixing, but also speeds up the estimation for simple logit models, which has implications also for traffic simulation. Moreover, we compare the utility maximization and regret minimization decision rules, and we propose a misspecification test for logit-based route choice models. The second theme is related to the estimation of static discrete choice models with large choice sets. We establish that a class of MEV models can be reformulated as dynamic discrete choice models on the networks of correlation structures. These dynamic models can then be estimated quickly using dynamic programming techniques and an efficient nonlinear optimization algorithm. Finally, the third theme focuses on structured quasi-Newton techniques for estimating discrete choice models by maximum likelihood. We examine and adapt switching methods that can be easily integrated into usual optimization algorithms (line search and trust region) to accelerate the estimation process. The proposed dynamic discrete choice models and estimation methods can be used in various discrete choice applications. In the area of big data analytics, models that can deal with large choice sets and sequential choices are important. Our research can therefore be of interest in various demand analysis applications (predictive analytics) or can be integrated with optimization models (prescriptive analytics). Furthermore, our studies indicate the potential of dynamic programming techniques in this context, even for static models, which opens up a variety of future research directions.

Lead/Calcium profiles in the common time window 1770-2010 of the three Arctica islandica shells

In the study, we establish centennial records of anthropogenic lead pollution at different locations in the North Atlantic (Iceland, USA, and Europe) by means of lead deposited in shells of the long-lived bivalve Arctica islandica. Due to local oceanographic and geological conditions we conclude that the lead concentrations in the Icelandic shell reflect natural influxes of lead into Icelandic waters. In comparison, the lead profile of the US shell is clearly driven by anthropogenic lead emissions transported from the continent to the ocean by westerly surface winds. Lead concentrations in the European North Sea shell, in contrast, are dominantly driven by local lead sources resulting in a much less conspicuous 1970s gasoline lead peak. In conclusion, the lead profiles of the three shells are driven by different influxes of lead, and yet, all support the applicability of Pb/Ca analyses of A. islandica shells to reconstruct location specific anthropogenic lead pollution.

Victoria Land Antarctica Pb and Ba concentrations and Pb isotope ratios 1872-1994 CE

Pb and Ba concentrations and Pb isotopic compositions are reported for firn core and snow pit samples from Victoria Land, Antarctica, dating from 1872 AD to 1994 AD. From variations in Pb/Ba ratios and Pb isotopic compositions, two periods of major Pb enhancements were identified, from 1891 to 1908 AD and from 1948 to 1994 AD. The earlier pollution event is attributed to Pb emissions from non-ferrous metal production and coal combustion in the Southern Hemisphere and is in excellent agreement with coincident pollution inputs reported in firn/ice cores from two other regions of Antarctica, at Coats Land and Law Dome. Using Pb isotopic systematics, it was calculated that ~50% of Pb deposited in Victoria Land in 1897 originated from anthropogenic emission sources. The more recent period of Pb enhancements, from 1948 to 1994 AD, corresponds to the introduction and widespread use of gasoline alkyl Pb additives in automobiles in the Southern Hemisphere, with anthropogenic Pb inputs averaging 60% of total Pb but with large uncertainty. Intra- and inter-annual variations in Pb concentrations and isotopic compositions were evaluated in snow pits samples corresponding to the period 1991-1994. Substantial variations in Pb/ Ba and 206Pb/207Pb ratios were detected but the absence of a regular seasonal pattern for these parameters suggests that the transport and deposition of aerosols to the Antarctic ice sheet are complex and vary from year to year.

Robust scenario formulations for strategic supply chain optimization under uncertainty

Strategic supply chain optimization (SCO) problems are often modelled as a two-stage optimization problem, in which the first-stage variables represent decisions on the development of the supply chain and the second-stage variables represent decisions on the operations of the supply chain. When uncertainty is explicitly considered, the problem becomes an intractable infinite-dimensional optimization problem, which is usually solved approximately via a scenario or a robust approach. This paper proposes a novel synergy of the scenario and robust approaches for strategic SCO under uncertainty. Two formulations are developed, namely, naïve robust scenario formulation and affinely adjustable robust scenario formulation. It is shown that both formulations can be reformulated into tractable deterministic optimization problems if the uncertainty is bounded with the infinity-norm, and the uncertain equality constraints can be reformulated into deterministic constraints without assumption of the uncertainty region. Case studies of a classical farm planning problem and an energy and bioproduct SCO problem demonstrate the advantages of the proposed formulations over the classical scenario formulation. The proposed formulations not only can generate solutions with guaranteed feasibility or indicate infeasibility of a problem, but also can achieve optimal expected economic performance with smaller numbers of scenarios.

Biobutanol as Fuel for Direct Alcohol Fuel Cells-Investigation of Sn-Modified Pt Catalyst for Butanol Electro-oxidation

Direct alcohol fuel cells (DAFCs) mostly use low molecular weight alcohols such as methanol and ethanol as fuels. However, short-chain alcohol molecules have a relative high membrane crossover rate in DAFCs and a low energy density. Long chain alcohols such as butanol have a higher energy density, as well as a lower membrane crossover rate compared to methanol and ethanol. Although a significant number of studies have been dedicated to low molecular weight alcohols in DAFCs, very few studies are available for longer chain alcohols such as butanol. A significant development in the production of biobutanol and its proposed application as an alternative fuel to gasoline in the past decade makes butanol an interesting candidate fuel for fuel cells. Different butanol isomers were compared in this study on various Pt and PtSn bimetallic catalysts for their electro-oxidation activities in acidic media. Clear distinctive behaviors were observed for each of the different butanol isomers using cyclic voltammetry (CV), indicating a difference in activity and the mechanism of oxidation. The voltammograms of both n-butanol and iso-butanol showed similar characteristic features, indicating a similar reaction mechanism, whereas 2-butanol showed completely different features; for example, it did not show any indication of poisoning. Ter-butanol was found to be inactive for oxidation on Pt. In situ FTIR and CV analysis showed that OHads was essential for the oxidation of primary butanol isomers which only forms at high potentials on Pt. In order to enhance the water oxidation and produce OHads at lower potentials, Pt was modified by the oxophilic metal Sn and the bimetallic PtSn was studied for the oxidation of butanol isomers. A significant enhancement in the oxidation of the 1° butanol isomers was observed on addition of Sn to the Pt, resulting in an oxidation peak at a potential ∼520 mV lower than that found on pure Pt. The higher activity of PtSn was attributed to the bifunctional mechanism on PtSn catalyst. The positive influence of Sn was also confirmed in the PtSn nanoparticle catalyst prepared by the modification of commercial Pt/C nanoparticle and a higher activity was observed for PtSn (3:1) composition. The temperature-dependent data showed that the activation energy for butanol oxidation reaction over PtSn/C is lower than that over Pt/C.

Joint Information and Jamming Beamforming for Secrecy Rate Maximization in Cognitive Radio Networks

In this paper, we consider the secure beamforming design for an underlay cognitive radio multiple-input singleoutput broadcast channel in the presence of multiple passive eavesdroppers. Our goal is to design a jamming noise (JN) transmit strategy to maximize the secrecy rate of the secondary system. By utilizing the zero-forcing method to eliminate the interference caused by JN to the secondary user, we study the joint optimization of the information and JN beamforming for secrecy rate maximization of the secondary system while satisfying all the interference power constraints at the primary users, as well as the per-antenna power constraint at the secondary transmitter. For an optimal beamforming design, the original problem is a nonconvex program, which can be reformulated as a convex program by applying the rank relaxation method. To this end, we prove that the rank relaxation is tight and propose a barrier interior-point method to solve the resulting saddle point problem based on a duality result. To find the global optimal solution, we transform the considered problem into an unconstrained optimization problem. We then employ Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) method to solve the resulting unconstrained problem which helps reduce the complexity significantly, compared to conventional methods. Simulation results show the fast convergence of the proposed algorithm and substantial performance improvements over existing approaches.

Essential scientific mapping of the value chain of thermochemical converted second-generation bio-fuels

As the largest contributor to renewable energy, biomass (especially lignocellulosic biomass) has significant potential to address atmospheric emission and energy shortage issues. The bio-fuels derived from lignocellulosic biomass are popularly referred to as second-generation bio-fuels. To date, several thermochemical conversion pathways for the production of second-generation bio-fuels have shown commercial promise; however, most of these remain at various pre-commercial stages. In view of their imminent commercialization, it is important to conduct a profound and comprehensive comparison of these production techniques. Accordingly, the scope of this review is to fill this essential knowledge gap by mapping the entire value chain of second-generation bio-fuels, from technical, economic, and environmental perspectives. This value chain covers i) the thermochemical technologies used to convert solid biomass feedstock into easier-to-handle intermediates, such as bio-oil, syngas, methanol, and Fischer-Tropsch fuel; and ii) the upgrading technologies used to convert intermediates into end products, including diesel, gasoline, renewable jet fuels, hydrogen, char, olefins, and oxygenated compounds. This review also provides an economic and commercial assessment of these technologies, with the aim of identifying the most adaptable technology for the production of bio-fuels, fuel additives, and bio-chemicals. A detailed mapping of the carbon footprints of the various thermochemical routes to second-generation bio-fuels is also carried out. The review concludes by identifying key challenges and future trends for second-generation petroleum substitute bio-fuels.

Application of multivariable control using artificial neural networks in a debutanizer distillation column

LOPES, Jose Soares Batista et al. Application of multivariable control using artificial neural networks in a debutanizer distillation column.In: INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING - COBEM, 19, 5-9 nov. 2007, Brasilia. Anais... Brasilia, 2007

Methodology for Labeling Oil Products with 123I

The objective was the development a methodology to label organic compounds with radioactive iodine (123I) from the reaction of organic compound with iodine nomochloride (ICL). The process begins with the production of 123ICl from the oxidation of potassium iodate in acid medium. The ICL labeled with 123I is extracted from aqueous phase using diethyl ether and then mixed with the organic compound to be labeled and the process is based on adding the radioactive iodine to the Carbon-Carbon double bonds of the organic compound. To measure the efficiency of the labeling process, in all stages samples were collected and the total activity of 123I was measure. The results show a production yield of 82% for lubricant oil and 85% for gasoline and diesel.

New N-acylamino acids and derivatives from renewable fatty acids: gelation of hydrocarbons and thermal properties

This work reports the synthesis of new fatty N-acylamino acids and N-acylamino esters from the C16:0, C18:0, C18:1, and C18:1(OH) fatty acid families and demonstrates the activity of these compounds as organogel agents. Compounds were heated and dissolved in various solvents (n-hexane, toluene, and gasoline). Only saturated C16:0 and C18:0 derived from alanine were able to form gels in toluene, and saturated C16:0 derived from phenylalanine showed gelation in n-hexane. This is the first evidence that fatty N-acylamino esters and N-acylamino acid derivatives of l-serine and fatty acids C16:0, C18:0, and C18:1 are able to form gels with hexane. This observation confirms the importance of the hydroxyl group in the segment derivative of l-serine in forming good gels.

Application of multivariable control using artificial neural networks in a debutanizer distillation column

LOPES, Jose Soares Batista et al. Application of multivariable control using artificial neural networks in a debutanizer distillation column.In: INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING - COBEM, 19, 5-9 nov. 2007, Brasilia. Anais... Brasilia, 2007

Multi-objective ant colony optimization for requirements selection

The selection of a set of requirements between all the requirements previously defined by customers is an important process, repeated at the beginning of each development step when an incremental or agile software development approach is adopted. The set of selected requirements will be developed during the actual iteration. This selection problem can be reformulated as a search problem, allowing its treatment with metaheuristic optimization techniques. This paper studies how to apply Ant Colony Optimization algorithms to select requirements. First, we describe this problem formally extending an earlier version of the problem, and introduce a method based on Ant Colony System to find a variety of efficient solutions. The performance achieved by the Ant Colony System is compared with that of Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedure and Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm, by means of computational experiments carried out on two instances of the problem constructed from data provided by the experts.

Formação do pensamento científico durante o processo de alfabetização científica no ensino de teorias atômicas e elementos químicos

Acompanha: Sequências didáticas para o ensino de teorias atômicas e elementos químicos

Survey of past, present pollutants via sediment cores analysis in the coastal trend of Caspian Sea

This is especially well supported by down core variation Zn concentration. As Caspian Sea water intrudes into the Bay, it may be concluded that some part of pollution has sea origin. The geochemical index (Igeo) was reformulated for the area of study using chemical partitioning as well as Pb-210 results. The newly developed geochemical index is indicative of low to medium pollution intensity in the Bay of Gorgan. Thus, any additional pollution into the area of study may leave adverse effects on the aquatic ecology of Bay of Gorgan. Further, lithogenous and non-lithogenous inputs of metals into the Bay were assessed. For this purpose and through chemical partitioning, association of metals with different sedimentary phases was determined. The overall results show that about 114th total metal concentration have been added into the Bay of Gorgan through human activities.

Meeting on Provisions in Licensing Incorporating new developments in daily licensing practice: Setting conditions for open access, patron driven access, and data & text mining

Following the workshop on new developments in daily licensing practice in November 2011, we brought together fourteen representatives from national consortia (from Denmark, Germany, Netherlands and the UK) and publishers (Elsevier, SAGE and Springer) met in Copenhagen on 9 March 2012 to discuss provisions in licences to accommodate new developments. The one day workshop aimed to: present background and ideas regarding the provisions KE Licensing Expert Group developed; introduce and explain the provisions the invited publishers currently use;ascertain agreement on the wording for long term preservation, continuous access and course packs; give insight and more clarity about the use of open access provisions in licences; discuss a roadmap for inclusion of the provisions in the publishers’ licences; result in report to disseminate the outcome of the meeting. Participants of the workshop were: United Kingdom: Lorraine Estelle (Jisc Collections) Denmark: Lotte Eivor Jørgensen (DEFF), Lone Madsen (Southern University of Denmark), Anne Sandfær (DEFF/Knowledge Exchange) Germany: Hildegard Schaeffler (Bavarian State Library), Markus Brammer (TIB) The Netherlands: Wilma Mossink (SURF), Nol Verhagen (University of Amsterdam), Marc Dupuis (SURF/Knowledge Exchange) Publishers: Alicia Wise (Elsevier), Yvonne Campfens (Springer), Bettina Goerner (Springer), Leo Walford (Sage) Knowledge Exchange: Keith Russell The main outcome of the workshop was that it would be valuable to have a standard set of clauses which could used in negotiations, this would make concluding licences a lot easier and more efficient. The comments on the model provisions the Licensing Expert group had drafted will be taken into account and the provisions will be reformulated. Data and text mining is a new development and demand for access to allow for this is growing. It would be easier if there was a simpler way to access materials so they could be more easily mined. However there are still outstanding questions on how authors of articles that have been mined can be properly attributed.