FMECA application to Rainfall Hazard prevention

This paper presents a System Safety application to reduce the economical impact hazards in growings produced by Rainfall. System Safety is an engineering subdiscipline oriented to identify and mitigate the possible hazards to a system under study. Inside the System Safety area, the FMECA (Failure Mode, Effects and Criticallity Analysis) is a popular tool to analyze and identify the failures and weaknesses points of any system. Basically, it consist on identifying systematically the failure modes of a system to mitigate them as much as possible. The idea is to study three different kind of growings (stone fruits in the south of Spain, wheat production in Castilla Leon and Olive trees production in Andalucia) using this methodology in order to identify all the hazardous situations produced by rainfall. Applying the state of the art weather forecast techniques, this information would help farmers to prevent and mitigate the identified hazardous situations. The aim of the work is to prevent the economical hazards as are defined in the System Safety area: "Any real or potential condition that can cause injury, illness, or death to personnel; damage to or loss of a system, equipment or property; or damage to the environment", so the study is not reduced to the analysis of catastrophical situations but aboutany kind of economical damage produced by rainfall.

Análisis estático de sistemas de membranas para la determinación de reglas activas

Esta tesis doctoral se enmarca dentro de la computación con membranas. Se trata de un tipo de computación bio-inspirado, concretamente basado en las células de los organismos vivos, en las que se producen múltiples reacciones de forma simultánea. A partir de la estructura y funcionamiento de las células se han definido diferentes modelos formales, denominados P sistemas. Estos modelos no tratan de modelar el comportamiento biológico de una célula, sino que abstraen sus principios básicos con objeto de encontrar nuevos paradigmas computacionales. Los P sistemas son modelos de computación no deterministas y masivamente paralelos. De ahí el interés que en los últimos años estos modelos han suscitado para la resolución de problemas complejos. En muchos casos, consiguen resolver de forma teórica problemas NP-completos en tiempo polinómico o lineal. Por otra parte, cabe destacar también la aplicación que la computación con membranas ha tenido en la investigación de otros muchos campos, sobre todo relacionados con la biología. Actualmente, una gran cantidad de estos modelos de computación han sido estudiados desde el punto de vista teórico. Sin embargo, el modo en que pueden ser implementados es un reto de investigación todavía abierto. Existen varias líneas en este sentido, basadas en arquitecturas distribuidas o en hardware dedicado, que pretenden acercarse en lo posible a su carácter no determinista y masivamente paralelo, dentro de un contexto de viabilidad y eficiencia. En esta tesis doctoral se propone la realización de un análisis estático del P sistema, como vía para optimizar la ejecución del mismo en estas plataformas. Se pretende que la información recogida en tiempo de análisis sirva para configurar adecuadamente la plataforma donde se vaya a ejecutar posteriormente el P sistema, obteniendo como consecuencia una mejora en el rendimiento. Concretamente, en esta tesis se han tomado como referencia los P sistemas de transiciones para llevar a cabo el estudio de dicho análisis estático. De manera un poco más específica, el análisis estático propuesto en esta tesis persigue que cada membrana sea capaz de determinar sus reglas activas de forma eficiente en cada paso de evolución, es decir, aquellas reglas que reúnen las condiciones adecuadas para poder ser aplicadas. En esta línea, se afronta el problema de los estados de utilidad de una membrana dada, que en tiempo de ejecución permitirán a la misma conocer en todo momento las membranas con las que puede comunicarse, cuestión que determina las reglas que pueden aplicarse en cada momento. Además, el análisis estático propuesto en esta tesis se basa en otra serie de características del P sistema como la estructura de membranas, antecedentes de las reglas, consecuentes de las reglas o prioridades. Una vez obtenida toda esta información en tiempo de análisis, se estructura en forma de árbol de decisión, con objeto de que en tiempo de ejecución la membrana obtenga las reglas activas de la forma más eficiente posible. Por otra parte, en esta tesis se lleva a cabo un recorrido por un número importante de arquitecturas hardware y software que diferentes autores han propuesto para implementar P sistemas. Fundamentalmente, arquitecturas distribuidas, hardware dedicado basado en tarjetas FPGA y plataformas basadas en microcontroladores PIC. El objetivo es proponer soluciones que permitan implantar en dichas arquitecturas los resultados obtenidos del análisis estático (estados de utilidad y árboles de decisión para reglas activas). En líneas generales, se obtienen conclusiones positivas, en el sentido de que dichas optimizaciones se integran adecuadamente en las arquitecturas sin penalizaciones significativas. Summary Membrane computing is the focus of this doctoral thesis. It can be considered a bio-inspired computing type. Specifically, it is based on living cells, in which many reactions take place simultaneously. From cell structure and operation, many different formal models have been defined, named P systems. These models do not try to model the biological behavior of the cell, but they abstract the basic principles of the cell in order to find out new computational paradigms. P systems are non-deterministic and massively parallel computational models. This is why, they have aroused interest when dealing with complex problems nowadays. In many cases, they manage to solve in theory NP problems in polynomial or lineal time. On the other hand, it is important to note that membrane computing has been successfully applied in many researching areas, specially related to biology. Nowadays, lots of these computing models have been sufficiently characterized from a theoretical point of view. However, the way in which they can be implemented is a research challenge, that it is still open nowadays. There are some lines in this way, based on distributed architectures or dedicated hardware. All of them are trying to approach to its non-deterministic and parallel character as much as possible, taking into account viability and efficiency. In this doctoral thesis it is proposed carrying out a static analysis of the P system in order to optimize its performance in a computing platform. The general idea is that after data are collected in analysis time, they are used for getting a suitable configuration of the computing platform in which P system is going to be performed. As a consequence, the system throughput will improve. Specifically, this thesis has made use of Transition P systems for carrying out the study in static analysis. In particular, the static analysis proposed in this doctoral thesis tries to achieve that every membrane can efficiently determine its active rules in every evolution step. These rules are the ones that can be applied depending on the system configuration at each computational step. In this line, we are going to tackle the problem of the usefulness states for a membrane. This state will allow this membrane to know the set of membranes with which communication is possible at any time. This is a very important issue in determining the set of rules that can be applied. Moreover, static analysis in this thesis is carried out taking into account other properties such as membrane structure, rule antecedents, rule consequents and priorities among rules. After collecting all data in analysis time, they are arranged in a decision tree structure, enabling membranes to obtain the set of active rules as efficiently as possible in run-time system. On the other hand, in this doctoral thesis is going to carry out an overview of hardware and software architectures, proposed by different authors in order to implement P systems, such as distributed architectures, dedicated hardware based on PFGA, and computing platforms based on PIC microcontrollers. The aim of this overview is to propose solutions for implementing the results of the static analysis, that is, usefulness states and decision trees for active rules. In general, conclusions are satisfactory, because these optimizations can be properly integrated in most of the architectures without significant penalties.

Historia holocena de los pinares montanos de los sistemas Central y Cantábrico: Un objetivo con dos enfoques, biogeográfico y dendroecológico

Los estudios paleoecológicos holocenos basados en macro- y megafósiles encierran un gran valor debido a que su información tiene generalmente carácter local, su origen es conocido, pueden ser datados directamente mediante el método radiocarbónico, y pueden identificarse a un nivel taxonómicamente preciso. Sin embargo son pocas las áreas del Sur de Europa en las que sea conocida una alta densidad de yacimientos con restos leñosos de gran tamaño. En esta tesis, se presentan datos de 53 yacimientos de la sierra de Gredos y de la cordillera Cantábrica (Península Ibérica). Los restos fueron hallados en ambientes variados, como zonas higroturbosas, turberas erosionadas o lagos, y fueron identificadas mediante el estudio de la anatomía de la madera o mediante rasgos morfológicos. En la sierra de Gredos, la evidencia paleobotánica indica la existencia de un panorama relativamente estable a lo largo del Holoceno medio y principio del Holoceno final y sugiere la persistencia, a lo largo de milenios, de un piso de pinares ampliamente distribuído en cotas altas de la sierra. La información obtenida de piñas y frutos mejoran la información taxonómica disponible y revelan la existencia tanto de Pinus sylvestris como de Pinus nigra en estas sierras durante el Holoceno. La datación radiocarbónica, medición de anillos de crecimiento y sincronización preliminar de 26 secciones de troncos de subfósiles demuestran el potencial de este material de las montañas de Iberia central en la obtención de cronologías holocenas de pino. En la cordillera Cantábrica, los datos aportan información espacialmente precisa de distribuciones de ciertas especies arbóreas durante el Holoceno. En las zonas centrales de la cordillera, han sido hallados fundamentalmente restos de pino, mientras que en las zonas más occidentales los pinos estás ausentes y los restos encontrados corresponden a otras especies de caducifolios (Betula, Salix, Quercus) y arbustos (Erica, Fabaceae) Esta información paleobiogeográfica constrasta con la distribución natural actual de Pinus sylvestris y Pinus nigra en el área de estudio. En la sierra de Gredos, la naturalidad de las escasos rodales de pinos que aún persisten ha sido discutida, mientras que en la cordillera Cantábrica, la única especie del grupo que persiste es P. sylvestris y está localizada en unos pocos relictos. El clima pudo haber jugado un papel importante en una primera fase de declive de los pinares durante el Holoceno inicial, mostrado en numerosos registros polínicos de manera casi sincrónica y asociada a una expansión de frondosas. Sin embargo la información histórica disponible y la comparación entre las áreas de distribución de los pinares en el presente, modelizada y en momentos anteriores a la la generalización de la presión antrópica sugiere que durante los últimos dos milenios, la actividad humana ha sido responsable de la desaparición de estas especies como árboles naturales en áreas extensas. ABSTRACTMacro- and megafossil studies provide information of great value in palaeoecology because such evidence is spatially precise, directly radiocarbon dated and usually taxon-specific. However, few areas of southern Europe have a high density of sites with Holocene woody remains. Here, local data from 53 sites in the Gredos Mountains and the Cantabrian Range (Iberian Peninsula) is presented. Woody remains were recovered from mires, eroded peat bogs and lakes and were identified by their wood anatomy or morphological traits. In the Gredos Mountains, palaeobotanical evidence portrays a relatively stable picture of tree distribution over the mid- and beggining of the late-Holocene, and suggests the persistence of a widespread belt of pinewoods. Cones and fruits enlarge the taxonomic information available and reveal that both Pinus sylvestris and Pinus nigra were present locally during the Holocene. Radiocarbon dating, tree ring measurement and preliminary cross-dating of 26 pine sub-fossil logs demonstrate the potential of obtaining a long pine chronology from subfossil wood from the mountains of Central Iberia. In the Cantabrian Range the data provide spatially precise evidence of tree distribution in the region during the Holocene. Pines were mostly identified in the central areas, whereas at the western edge no pine evidence was detected and deciduous trees (Betula, Salix, Quercus) and shrubs (Erica, Fabaceae) were identified. This palaeoecological information contrasts with the current natural distribution ranges of P. sylvestris and P. nigra in the study area. In the Gredos Mountains, the naturality of the few pine stands currently growing has been heavily debated. In the Cantabrian Range P. sylvestris is the only pine species that is today present, and its natural presence is now limited to a few enclaves. Climate may have played a key role in the early-Holocene, as pollen archives document a pine demise that is synchronous with the spread of broadleaved taxa. However, available historical data and the comparison of the reconstructed distribution of pinewoods before extensive human forest disturbance with both present and modelled distributions suggests that during the last two millennia, anthropogenic activity may have removed these species as native trees from a large territory.

Fruit quality sensing:Post-harvest ripeness

Firmness sensing of selected varieties of apples, pears and avocado fruits has been developed using a nondestructive impact technique. In addition to firmness measurements, postharvest ripeness of apples and pears was monitored by spectrophotometric reflectance measurements, and that of avocadoes by Hunter colour measurements. The data obtained from firmness sensing were analyzed by three analytical procedures: principal component, correlation and regression, and stepwise discriminant analysis. A new software was developed to control the impact test, analyse the data, and sort the fruit into specified classes, based on the criteria obtained from a training procedure. Similar procedures were used to analyse the reflectance and colour data. Both sensing systems were able to classify fruits w i th good accuracy.

Energy requirements in pressure irrigation systems

Modernization of irrigation schemes, generally understood as transformation of surface irrigation systems into pressure –sprinkler and trickle- irrigation systems, aims at, among others, improving irrigation efficiency and reduction of operation and maintenance efforts made by the irrigators. However, pressure irrigation systems, in contrast, carry a serious energy cost. Energy requirements depend on decisions taken on management strategies during the operation phase, which are conditioned by previous decisions taken on the design project of the different elements which compose the irrigation system. Most of the countries where irrigation activity is significant bear in mind that modernization irrigation must play a key role in the agricultural infrastructure policies. The objective of this study is to characterize and estimate the mean and variation of the energy consumed by common types of irrigation systems and their management possibilities. The work includes all processes involved from the diversion of water into irrigation specific infrastructure to water discharge by the emitters installed on the crop fields. Simulation taking into account all elements comprising the irrigation system has been used to estimate the energy requirements of typical irrigation systems of several crop production systems. It has been applied to extensive and intensive crop systems, such us extensive winter crops, summer crops and olive trees, fruit trees and vineyards and intensive horticulture in greenhouses. The simulation of various types of irrigation systems and management strategies, in the framework imposed by particular cropping systems, would help to develop criteria for improving the energy balance in relation to the irrigation water supply productivity.

Benchmarking federated SPARQL query engines: Are existing testbeds enough?

Testbeds proposed so far to evaluate, compare, and eventually improve SPARQL query federation systems have still some limitations. Some variables and con�gurations that may have an impact on the behavior of these systems (e.g., network latency, data partitioning and query properties) are not su�ciently de�ned; this a�ects the results and repeatability of independent evaluation studies, and hence the insights that can be obtained from them. In this paper we evaluate FedBench, the most comprehensive testbed up to now, and empirically probe the need of considering additional dimensions and variables. The evaluation has been conducted on three SPARQL query federation systems, and the analysis of these results has allowed to uncover properties of these systems that would normally be hidden with the original testbeds.

Tree height integrated into pantropical forest biomass estimates

Aboveground tropical tree biomass and carbon storage estimates commonly ignore tree height (H). We estimate the effect of incorporating H on tropics-wide forest biomass estimates in 327 plots across four continents using 42 656 H and diameter measurements and harvested trees from 20 sites to answer the following questions: 1. What is the best H-model form and geographic unit to include in biomass models to minimise site-level uncertainty in estimates of destructive biomass? 2. To what extent does including H estimates derived in (1) reduce uncertainty in biomass estimates across all 327 plots? 3. What effect does accounting for H have on plot- and continental-scale forest biomass estimates? The mean relative error in biomass estimates of destructively harvested trees when including H (mean 0.06), was half that when excluding H (mean 0.13). Power- andWeibull-H models provided the greatest reduction in uncertainty, with regional Weibull-H models preferred because they reduce uncertainty in smaller-diameter classes (?40 cm D) that store about one-third of biomass per hectare in most forests. Propagating the relationships from destructively harvested tree biomass to each of the 327 plots from across the tropics shows that including H reduces errors from 41.8Mgha?1 (range 6.6 to 112.4) to 8.0Mgha?1 (?2.5 to 23.0). For all plots, aboveground live biomass was ?52.2 Mgha?1 (?82.0 to ?20.3 bootstrapped 95%CI), or 13%, lower when including H estimates, with the greatest relative reductions in estimated biomass in forests of the Brazilian Shield, east Africa, and Australia, and relatively little change in the Guiana Shield, central Africa and southeast Asia. Appreciably different stand structure was observed among regions across the tropical continents, with some storing significantly more biomass in small diameter stems, which affects selection of the best height models to reduce uncertainty and biomass reductions due to H. After accounting for variation in H, total biomass per hectare is greatest in Australia, the Guiana Shield, Asia, central and east Africa, and lowest in eastcentral Amazonia, W. Africa, W. Amazonia, and the Brazilian Shield (descending order). Thus, if tropical forests span 1668 million km2 and store 285 Pg C (estimate including H), then applying our regional relationships implies that carbon storage is overestimated by 35 PgC (31?39 bootstrapped 95%CI) if H is ignored, assuming that the sampled plots are an unbiased statistical representation of all tropical forest in terms of biomass and height factors. Our results show that tree H is an important allometric factor that needs to be included in future forest biomass estimates to reduce error in estimates of tropical carbon stocks and emissions due to deforestation.

Towards model-driven engineering for mixed-criticality systems: multiPARTES approach

Mixed criticality systems emerges as a suitable solution for dealing with the complexity, performance and costs of future embedded and dependable systems. However, this paradigm adds additional complexity to their development. This paper proposes an approach for dealing with this scenario that relies on hardware virtualization and Model-Driven Engineering (MDE). Hardware virtualization ensures isolation between subsystems with different criticality levels. MDE is intended to bridge the gap between design issues and partitioning concerns. MDE tooling will enhance the functional models by annotating partitioning and extra-functional properties. System partitioning and subsystems allocation will be generated with a high degree of automation. System configuration will be validated for ensuring that the resources assigned to a partition are sufficient for executing the allocated software components and that time requirements are met.

Determining the effectiveness of three software evaluation techniques through informal aggregation

An accepted fact in software engineering is that software must undergo verification and validation process during development to ascertain and improve its quality level. But there are too many techniques than a single developer could master, yet, it is impossible to be certain that software is free of defects. So, it is crucial for developers to be able to choose from available evaluation techniques, the one most suitable and likely to yield optimum quality results for different products. Though, some knowledge is available on the strengths and weaknesses of the available software quality assurance techniques but not much is known yet on the relationship between different techniques and contextual behavior of the techniques. Objective: This research investigates the effectiveness of two testing techniques ? equivalence class partitioning and decision coverage and one review technique ? code review by abstraction, in terms of their fault detection capability. This will be used to strengthen the practical knowledge available on these techniques.

Modelling agro-forestry scenarios for ammonia abatement in the landscape

Ammonia emissions from livestock production can have negative impacts on nearby protected sites and ecosystems that are sensitive to eutrophication and acidification. Trees are effective scavengers of both gaseous and particulate pollutants from the atmosphere making tree belts potentially effective landscape features to support strategies aiming to reduce ammonia impacts. This research used the MODDAS-THETIS a coupled turbulence and deposition turbulence model, to examine the relationships between tree canopy structure and ammonia capture for three source types?animal housing, slurry lagoon, and livestock under a tree canopy. By altering the canopy length, leaf area index, leaf area density, and height of the canopy in the model the capture efficiencies varied substantially. A maximum of 27% of the emitted ammonia was captured by tree canopy for the animal housing source, for the slurry lagoon the maximum was 19%, while the livestock under trees attained a maximum of 60% recapture. Using agro-forestry systems of differing tree structures near ?hot spots? of ammonia in the landscape could provide an effective abatement option for the livestock industry that complements existing source reduction measures.

New definitions of margin for multi-class Boosting algorithms

La familia de algoritmos de Boosting son un tipo de técnicas de clasificación y regresión que han demostrado ser muy eficaces en problemas de Visión Computacional. Tal es el caso de los problemas de detección, de seguimiento o bien de reconocimiento de caras, personas, objetos deformables y acciones. El primer y más popular algoritmo de Boosting, AdaBoost, fue concebido para problemas binarios. Desde entonces, muchas han sido las propuestas que han aparecido con objeto de trasladarlo a otros dominios más generales: multiclase, multilabel, con costes, etc. Nuestro interés se centra en extender AdaBoost al terreno de la clasificación multiclase, considerándolo como un primer paso para posteriores ampliaciones. En la presente tesis proponemos dos algoritmos de Boosting para problemas multiclase basados en nuevas derivaciones del concepto margen. El primero de ellos, PIBoost, está concebido para abordar el problema descomponiéndolo en subproblemas binarios. Por un lado, usamos una codificación vectorial para representar etiquetas y, por otro, utilizamos la función de pérdida exponencial multiclase para evaluar las respuestas. Esta codificación produce un conjunto de valores margen que conllevan un rango de penalizaciones en caso de fallo y recompensas en caso de acierto. La optimización iterativa del modelo genera un proceso de Boosting asimétrico cuyos costes dependen del número de etiquetas separadas por cada clasificador débil. De este modo nuestro algoritmo de Boosting tiene en cuenta el desbalanceo debido a las clases a la hora de construir el clasificador. El resultado es un método bien fundamentado que extiende de manera canónica al AdaBoost original. El segundo algoritmo propuesto, BAdaCost, está concebido para problemas multiclase dotados de una matriz de costes. Motivados por los escasos trabajos dedicados a generalizar AdaBoost al terreno multiclase con costes, hemos propuesto un nuevo concepto de margen que, a su vez, permite derivar una función de pérdida adecuada para evaluar costes. Consideramos nuestro algoritmo como la extensión más canónica de AdaBoost para este tipo de problemas, ya que generaliza a los algoritmos SAMME, Cost-Sensitive AdaBoost y PIBoost. Por otro lado, sugerimos un simple procedimiento para calcular matrices de coste adecuadas para mejorar el rendimiento de Boosting a la hora de abordar problemas estándar y problemas con datos desbalanceados. Una serie de experimentos nos sirven para demostrar la efectividad de ambos métodos frente a otros conocidos algoritmos de Boosting multiclase en sus respectivas áreas. En dichos experimentos se usan bases de datos de referencia en el área de Machine Learning, en primer lugar para minimizar errores y en segundo lugar para minimizar costes. Además, hemos podido aplicar BAdaCost con éxito a un proceso de segmentación, un caso particular de problema con datos desbalanceados. Concluimos justificando el horizonte de futuro que encierra el marco de trabajo que presentamos, tanto por su aplicabilidad como por su flexibilidad teórica. Abstract The family of Boosting algorithms represents a type of classification and regression approach that has shown to be very effective in Computer Vision problems. Such is the case of detection, tracking and recognition of faces, people, deformable objects and actions. The first and most popular algorithm, AdaBoost, was introduced in the context of binary classification. Since then, many works have been proposed to extend it to the more general multi-class, multi-label, costsensitive, etc... domains. Our interest is centered in extending AdaBoost to two problems in the multi-class field, considering it a first step for upcoming generalizations. In this dissertation we propose two Boosting algorithms for multi-class classification based on new generalizations of the concept of margin. The first of them, PIBoost, is conceived to tackle the multi-class problem by solving many binary sub-problems. We use a vectorial codification to represent class labels and a multi-class exponential loss function to evaluate classifier responses. This representation produces a set of margin values that provide a range of penalties for failures and rewards for successes. The stagewise optimization of this model introduces an asymmetric Boosting procedure whose costs depend on the number of classes separated by each weak-learner. In this way the Boosting procedure takes into account class imbalances when building the ensemble. The resulting algorithm is a well grounded method that canonically extends the original AdaBoost. The second algorithm proposed, BAdaCost, is conceived for multi-class problems endowed with a cost matrix. Motivated by the few cost-sensitive extensions of AdaBoost to the multi-class field, we propose a new margin that, in turn, yields a new loss function appropriate for evaluating costs. Since BAdaCost generalizes SAMME, Cost-Sensitive AdaBoost and PIBoost algorithms, we consider our algorithm as a canonical extension of AdaBoost to this kind of problems. We additionally suggest a simple procedure to compute cost matrices that improve the performance of Boosting in standard and unbalanced problems. A set of experiments is carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of both methods against other relevant Boosting algorithms in their respective areas. In the experiments we resort to benchmark data sets used in the Machine Learning community, firstly for minimizing classification errors and secondly for minimizing costs. In addition, we successfully applied BAdaCost to a segmentation task, a particular problem in presence of imbalanced data. We conclude the thesis justifying the horizon of future improvements encompassed in our framework, due to its applicability and theoretical flexibility.

Aplicación de la metodología ISA al análisis de la secuencia de pérdida del sistema de agua de refrigeración de componentes en una central nuclear con reactor de agua a presión

La metodología Integrated Safety Analysis (ISA), desarrollada en el área de Modelación y Simulación (MOSI) del Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear (CSN), es un método de Análisis Integrado de Seguridad que está siendo evaluado y analizado mediante diversas aplicaciones impulsadas por el CSN; el análisis integrado de seguridad, combina las técnicas evolucionadas de los análisis de seguridad al uso: deterministas y probabilistas. Se considera adecuado para sustentar la Regulación Informada por el Riesgo (RIR), actual enfoque dado a la seguridad nuclear y que está siendo desarrollado y aplicado en todo el mundo. En este contexto se enmarcan, los proyectos Safety Margin Action Plan (SMAP) y Safety Margin Assessment Application (SM2A), impulsados por el Comité para la Seguridad de las Instalaciones Nucleares (CSNI) de la Agencia de la Energía Nuclear (NEA) de la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económicos (OCDE) en el desarrollo del enfoque adecuado para el uso de las metodologías integradas en la evaluación del cambio en los márgenes de seguridad debidos a cambios en las condiciones de las centrales nucleares. El comité constituye un foro para el intercambio de información técnica y de colaboración entre las organizaciones miembro, que aportan sus propias ideas en investigación, desarrollo e ingeniería. La propuesta del CSN es la aplicación de la metodología ISA, especialmente adecuada para el análisis según el enfoque desarrollado en el proyecto SMAP que pretende obtener los valores best-estimate con incertidumbre de las variables de seguridad que son comparadas con los límites de seguridad, para obtener la frecuencia con la que éstos límites son superados. La ventaja que ofrece la ISA es que permite el análisis selectivo y discreto de los rangos de los parámetros inciertos que tienen mayor influencia en la superación de los límites de seguridad, o frecuencia de excedencia del límite, permitiendo así evaluar los cambios producidos por variaciones en el diseño u operación de la central que serían imperceptibles o complicados de cuantificar con otro tipo de metodologías. La ISA se engloba dentro de las metodologías de APS dinámico discreto que utilizan la generación de árboles de sucesos dinámicos (DET) y se basa en la Theory of Stimulated Dynamics (TSD), teoría de fiabilidad dinámica simplificada que permite la cuantificación del riesgo de cada una de las secuencias. Con la ISA se modelan y simulan todas las interacciones relevantes en una central: diseño, condiciones de operación, mantenimiento, actuaciones de los operadores, eventos estocásticos, etc. Por ello requiere la integración de códigos de: simulación termohidráulica y procedimientos de operación; delineación de árboles de sucesos; cuantificación de árboles de fallos y sucesos; tratamiento de incertidumbres e integración del riesgo. La tesis contiene la aplicación de la metodología ISA al análisis integrado del suceso iniciador de la pérdida del sistema de refrigeración de componentes (CCWS) que genera secuencias de pérdida de refrigerante del reactor a través de los sellos de las bombas principales del circuito de refrigerante del reactor (SLOCA). Se utiliza para probar el cambio en los márgenes, con respecto al límite de la máxima temperatura de pico de vaina (1477 K), que sería posible en virtud de un potencial aumento de potencia del 10 % en el reactor de agua a presión de la C.N. Zion. El trabajo realizado para la consecución de la tesis, fruto de la colaboración de la Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros de Minas y Energía y la empresa de soluciones tecnológicas Ekergy Software S.L. (NFQ Solutions) con el área MOSI del CSN, ha sido la base para la contribución del CSN en el ejercicio SM2A. Este ejercicio ha sido utilizado como evaluación del desarrollo de algunas de las ideas, sugerencias, y los algoritmos detrás de la metodología ISA. Como resultado se ha obtenido un ligero aumento de la frecuencia de excedencia del daño (DEF) provocado por el aumento de potencia. Este resultado demuestra la viabilidad de la metodología ISA para obtener medidas de las variaciones en los márgenes de seguridad que han sido provocadas por modificaciones en la planta. También se ha mostrado que es especialmente adecuada en escenarios donde los eventos estocásticos o las actuaciones de recuperación o mitigación de los operadores pueden tener un papel relevante en el riesgo. Los resultados obtenidos no tienen validez más allá de la de mostrar la viabilidad de la metodología ISA. La central nuclear en la que se aplica el estudio está clausurada y la información relativa a sus análisis de seguridad es deficiente, por lo que han sido necesarias asunciones sin comprobación o aproximaciones basadas en estudios genéricos o de otras plantas. Se han establecido tres fases en el proceso de análisis: primero, obtención del árbol de sucesos dinámico de referencia; segundo, análisis de incertidumbres y obtención de los dominios de daño; y tercero, cuantificación del riesgo. Se han mostrado diversas aplicaciones de la metodología y ventajas que presenta frente al APS clásico. También se ha contribuido al desarrollo del prototipo de herramienta para la aplicación de la metodología ISA (SCAIS). ABSTRACT The Integrated Safety Analysis methodology (ISA), developed by the Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear (CSN), is being assessed in various applications encouraged by CSN. An Integrated Safety Analysis merges the evolved techniques of the usually applied safety analysis methodologies; deterministic and probabilistic. It is considered as a suitable tool for assessing risk in a Risk Informed Regulation framework, the approach under development that is being adopted on Nuclear Safety around the world. In this policy framework, the projects Safety Margin Action Plan (SMAP) and Safety Margin Assessment Application (SM2A), set up by the Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI) of the Nuclear Energy Agency within the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), were aimed to obtain a methodology and its application for the integration of risk and safety margins in the assessment of the changes to the overall safety as a result of changes in the nuclear plant condition. The committee provides a forum for the exchange of technical information and cooperation among member organizations which contribute their respective approaches in research, development and engineering. The ISA methodology, proposed by CSN, specially fits with the SMAP approach that aims at obtaining Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty values of the safety variables to be compared with the safety limits. This makes it possible to obtain the exceedance frequencies of the safety limit. The ISA has the advantage over other methods of allowing the specific and discrete evaluation of the most influential uncertain parameters in the limit exceedance frequency. In this way the changes due to design or operation variation, imperceptibles or complicated to by quantified by other methods, are correctly evaluated. The ISA methodology is one of the discrete methodologies of the Dynamic PSA framework that uses the generation of dynamic event trees (DET). It is based on the Theory of Stimulated Dynamics (TSD), a simplified version of the theory of Probabilistic Dynamics that allows the risk quantification. The ISA models and simulates all the important interactions in a Nuclear Power Plant; design, operating conditions, maintenance, human actuations, stochastic events, etc. In order to that, it requires the integration of codes to obtain: Thermohydraulic and human actuations; Even trees delineation; Fault Trees and Event Trees quantification; Uncertainty analysis and risk assessment. This written dissertation narrates the application of the ISA methodology to the initiating event of the Loss of the Component Cooling System (CCWS) generating sequences of loss of reactor coolant through the seals of the reactor coolant pump (SLOCA). It is used to test the change in margins with respect to the maximum clad temperature limit (1477 K) that would be possible under a potential 10 % power up-rate effected in the pressurized water reactor of Zion NPP. The work done to achieve the thesis, fruit of the collaborative agreement of the School of Mining and Energy Engineering and the company of technological solutions Ekergy Software S.L. (NFQ Solutions) with de specialized modeling and simulation branch of the CSN, has been the basis for the contribution of the CSN in the exercise SM2A. This exercise has been used as an assessment of the development of some of the ideas, suggestions, and algorithms behind the ISA methodology. It has been obtained a slight increase in the Damage Exceedance Frequency (DEF) caused by the power up-rate. This result shows that ISA methodology allows quantifying the safety margin change when design modifications are performed in a NPP and is specially suitable for scenarios where stochastic events or human responses have an important role to prevent or mitigate the accidental consequences and the total risk. The results do not have any validity out of showing the viability of the methodology ISA. Zion NPP was retired and information of its safety analysis is scarce, so assumptions without verification or approximations based on generic studies have been required. Three phases are established in the analysis process: first, obtaining the reference dynamic event tree; second, uncertainty analysis and obtaining the damage domains; third, risk quantification. There have been shown various applications of the methodology and advantages over the classical PSA. It has also contributed to the development of the prototype tool for the implementation of the ISA methodology (SCAIS).

ASPECTOS PSICODINÂMICOS E CAPACIDADE MATERNA DE MÃES DE CRIANÇAS ABRIGADAS

Este estudo teve como objetivos investigar aspectos da dinâmica intrapsíquica de mães de crianças institucionalizadas em abrigo por ordem judicial, e identificar recursos defensivos utilizados por essas mães. Para atingir estes objetivos, realizou-se uma investigação clínica com estudo de três casos de mães de crianças abrigadas. Foram utilizados dois instrumentos: a) Roteiro de Entrevista roteiro de temas a serem abordados em uma ou mais entrevistas não diretivas de cunho clínico, a fim de auxiliar na investigação da psicodinâmica destas mães. b) Procedimento de Desenho Estória com Tema técnica projetiva que associa o uso de desenhos com estórias, como forma de explorar livre e dinamicamente os conteúdos da personalidade. A técnica permite o estudo das características formais e estruturais da personalidade, pois tem a particularidade de facilitar a expressão de aspectos inconscientes relacionados a pontos de angústias presentes, focos conflituosos e perturbações emergentes. Estes procedimentos foram realizados nas dependências da instituição (abrigo) onde as crianças estavam hospedadas. Os principais resultados comuns aos três casos foram: Ambigüidade e os Impeditivos de Crescimento a primeira mãe entrevistada ao mesmo tempo ataca a mãe que a abandona (mãe biológica e a mãe adotiva), em busca de uma mãe idealizada. Essa ambigüidade a impede de crescer. Nota-se a mesma tentativa de idealização na segunda mãe estudada que demonstra dificuldade em aceitar a atual situação em que vive e não consegue perceber que a aproximação de sua mãe é por causa da doença que ela adquiriu e não por continência. A terceira e última mãe entrevistada demonstra conteúdos persecutórios diante do abrigamento dos filhos e dificuldade de sentir gratidão. Os mecanismos predominantes que aparecem nos três casos são os de: idealização e regressão a estágios primitivos. Nota-se ainda, depressão, dificuldade de elaboração da posição depressiva. Estas mães não conseguem vivenciar continuamente a realidade psíquica, que implicaria na elaboração da posição depressiva, pois não conseguem fazer, ainda que tentem, uma comparação entre os mundos interno e externo, o que as levariam à uma melhor compreensão das semelhanças e diferenças. De modo que, a figura dos pais (principalmente da mãe) fica cindida entre aterrorizante e idealizada, porém os mecanismos predominantes são suas fantasias que propiciam idealização; identificação projetiva maciça. A persecutoriedade e a culpa, ao mesmo tempo parecem indicar a depressão que pode ser tão forte que levam à intensificação destes sentimentos. Há a presença da inveja que também intensifica as angústias persecutórias, requerendo mecanismos de defesa que violentam as funções psíquicas.(AU)

ASPECTOS PSICODINÂMICOS E CAPACIDADE MATERNA DE MÃES DE CRIANÇAS ABRIGADAS

Este estudo teve como objetivos investigar aspectos da dinâmica intrapsíquica de mães de crianças institucionalizadas em abrigo por ordem judicial, e identificar recursos defensivos utilizados por essas mães. Para atingir estes objetivos, realizou-se uma investigação clínica com estudo de três casos de mães de crianças abrigadas. Foram utilizados dois instrumentos: a) Roteiro de Entrevista roteiro de temas a serem abordados em uma ou mais entrevistas não diretivas de cunho clínico, a fim de auxiliar na investigação da psicodinâmica destas mães. b) Procedimento de Desenho Estória com Tema técnica projetiva que associa o uso de desenhos com estórias, como forma de explorar livre e dinamicamente os conteúdos da personalidade. A técnica permite o estudo das características formais e estruturais da personalidade, pois tem a particularidade de facilitar a expressão de aspectos inconscientes relacionados a pontos de angústias presentes, focos conflituosos e perturbações emergentes. Estes procedimentos foram realizados nas dependências da instituição (abrigo) onde as crianças estavam hospedadas. Os principais resultados comuns aos três casos foram: Ambigüidade e os Impeditivos de Crescimento a primeira mãe entrevistada ao mesmo tempo ataca a mãe que a abandona (mãe biológica e a mãe adotiva), em busca de uma mãe idealizada. Essa ambigüidade a impede de crescer. Nota-se a mesma tentativa de idealização na segunda mãe estudada que demonstra dificuldade em aceitar a atual situação em que vive e não consegue perceber que a aproximação de sua mãe é por causa da doença que ela adquiriu e não por continência. A terceira e última mãe entrevistada demonstra conteúdos persecutórios diante do abrigamento dos filhos e dificuldade de sentir gratidão. Os mecanismos predominantes que aparecem nos três casos são os de: idealização e regressão a estágios primitivos. Nota-se ainda, depressão, dificuldade de elaboração da posição depressiva. Estas mães não conseguem vivenciar continuamente a realidade psíquica, que implicaria na elaboração da posição depressiva, pois não conseguem fazer, ainda que tentem, uma comparação entre os mundos interno e externo, o que as levariam à uma melhor compreensão das semelhanças e diferenças. De modo que, a figura dos pais (principalmente da mãe) fica cindida entre aterrorizante e idealizada, porém os mecanismos predominantes são suas fantasias que propiciam idealização; identificação projetiva maciça. A persecutoriedade e a culpa, ao mesmo tempo parecem indicar a depressão que pode ser tão forte que levam à intensificação destes sentimentos. Há a presença da inveja que também intensifica as angústias persecutórias, requerendo mecanismos de defesa que violentam as funções psíquicas.(AU)

The optimization principle in phylogenetic analysis tends to give incorrect topologies when the number of nucleotides or amino acids used is small

In the maximum parsimony (MP) and minimum evolution (ME) methods of phylogenetic inference, evolutionary trees are constructed by searching for the topology that shows the minimum number of mutational changes required (M) and the smallest sum of branch lengths (S), respectively, whereas in the maximum likelihood (ML) method the topology showing the highest maximum likelihood (A) of observing a given data set is chosen. However, the theoretical basis of the optimization principle remains unclear. We therefore examined the relationships of M, S, and A for the MP, ME, and ML trees with those for the true tree by using computer simulation. The results show that M and S are generally greater for the true tree than for the MP and ME trees when the number of nucleotides examined (n) is relatively small, whereas A is generally lower for the true tree than for the ML tree. This finding indicates that the optimization principle tends to give incorrect topologies when n is small. To deal with this disturbing property of the optimization principle, we suggest that more attention should be given to testing the statistical reliability of an estimated tree rather than to finding the optimal tree with excessive efforts. When a reliability test is conducted, simplified MP, ME, and ML algorithms such as the neighbor-joining method generally give conclusions about phylogenetic inference very similar to those obtained by the more extensive tree search algorithms.