Individual prediction of automobile bodily injury claims liabilities

[spa] La mayoría de siniestros con daños corporales se liquidan mediante negociación, llegando a juicio menos del 5% de los casos. Una estrategia de negociación bien definida es, por tanto, fundamental para las compañías aseguradoras. En este artículo asumimos que la compensación monetaria concedida en juicio es la máxima cuantía que debería ser ofrecida por el asegurador en el proceso de negociación. Usando una base de datos real, implementamos un modelo log-lineal para estimar la máxima oferta de negociación. Perturbaciones no-esféricas son detectadas. Correlación ocurre cuando más de una siniestro se liquida en la misma sentencia judicial. Heterocedasticidad por grupos se debe a la influencia de la valoración del forense en la indemnización final.

First-generation linkage map for the European tree frog (Hyla arborea) with utility in congeneric species.

BACKGROUND: Western Palearctic tree frogs (Hyla arborea group) represent a strong potential for evolutionary and conservation genetic research, so far underexploited due to limited molecular resources. New microsatellite markers have recently been developed for Hyla arborea, with high cross-species utility across the entire circum-Mediterranean radiation. Here we conduct sibship analyses to map available markers for use in future population genetic applications. FINDINGS: We characterized eight linkage groups, including one sex-linked, all showing drastically reduced recombination in males compared to females, as previously documented in this species. Mapping of the new 15 markers to the ~200 My diverged Xenopus tropicalis genome suggests a generally conserved synteny with only one confirmed major chromosome rearrangement. CONCLUSIONS: The new microsatellites are representative of several chromosomes of H. arborea that are likely to be conserved across closely-related species. Our linkage map provides an important resource for genetic research in European Hylids, notably for studies of speciation, genome evolution and conservation.

PRECISION V: Randomisierte Phase II-Studie mit Drug Eluting Beads (DEB) zur Behandlung des hepatozelluläre Karzinoms (HCC) mittels transarterieller Chemoemblisation [PRECISION V: Randomized Phase II-Study with Drug Eluting Beads (DEB) for the Treatment of Hepatocellular cancer (HCC) using transarterial Chemoemblisation.]

Zielsetzung: Vergleich von Drug Eluting Bead (DEB)-TACE mit konventioneller TACE bei der Behandlung von ,,intermediate stage-HCC bei Patienten mit Zirrhose. Material und Methodik: 212 Patienten (185 ♂, 27 ♀; mittleres Alter, 67 Jahre) mit Child-Pugh A oder B Leberzirrhose und großem und/oder multinodulärem, irresektablen HCC wurden randomisiert, um das Therapieansprechen nach der Behandlung mit DEB (DC Bead; Biocompatibles, UK) beladen mit Doxorubicin oder konventioneller TACE mit Doxorubicin zu vergleichen. Die Randomisierung wurde nach Child-Pugh Status (A oder B), Performance Status (ECOG 0 oder 1), bilobärer Erkrankung (ja/nein) und frühere kurative Behandlung (ja/nein) stratifiziert. Der primäre Studienendpunkt war das 6-Monats-Tumoransprechen. Eine unabhängige verblindete MRT-Studie wurde durchgeführt, um das Tumoransprechen nach den RECIST Kriterien zu beurteilen. Ergebnisse: DEB-TACE mit Doxorubicin zeigte eine höhere Rate an komplettem Tumoransprechen, objektivem Ansprechen und Tumorkontrolle im Vergleich zur konventionellen TACE (27% vs 22%; 52% vs 44%; and 63% vs 52%; P>0.05). Patienten mit Child-Pugh B Zirrhose, ECOG 1 Performance Status, bilobärer Erkrankung und Rezidiven nach kurativer Behandlung zeigte einen signifikanten Anstieg des objektiven Ansprechens (p = 0.038) im Vergleich zur Kontrollgruppe. Bei Patienten, die mit DEB-TACE behandelt wurden, konnte eine deutliche Reduktion der gravierenden Lebertoxizität erreicht werden. Die Doxorubicin-Nebenwirkungsrate war in der DEB-TACE Gruppe deutlich geringer (p = 0.0001) als in der konventionellen TACEGruppe. Schlussfolgerung: DEB-TACE mit Doxorubicin ist sicher und effektiv in der Behandlung von ,,intermediate-stage HCC und bietet einen signifikanten Vorteil bei Patienten mit fortgeschrittener Erkrankung.

Prediction markets supporting technology assessment

In this thesis, we study the use of prediction markets for technology assessment. We particularly focus on their ability to assess complex issues, the design constraints required for such applications and their efficacy compared to traditional techniques. To achieve this, we followed a design science research paradigm, iteratively developing, instantiating, evaluating and refining the design of our artifacts. This allowed us to make multiple contributions, both practical and theoretical. We first showed that prediction markets are adequate for properly assessing complex issues. We also developed a typology of design factors and design propositions for using these markets in a technology assessment context. Then, we showed that they are able to solve some issues related to the R&D portfolio management process and we proposed a roadmap for their implementation. Finally, by comparing the instantiation and the results of a multi-criteria decision method and a prediction market, we showed that the latter are more efficient, while offering similar results. We also proposed a framework for comparing forecasting methods, to identify the constraints based on contingency factors. In conclusion, our research opens a new field of application of prediction markets and should help hasten their adoption by enterprises. Résumé français: Dans cette thèse, nous étudions l'utilisation de marchés de prédictions pour l'évaluation de nouvelles technologies. Nous nous intéressons plus particulièrement aux capacités des marchés de prédictions à évaluer des problématiques complexes, aux contraintes de conception pour une telle utilisation et à leur efficacité par rapport à des techniques traditionnelles. Pour ce faire, nous avons suivi une approche Design Science, développant itérativement plusieurs prototypes, les instanciant, puis les évaluant avant d'en raffiner la conception. Ceci nous a permis de faire de multiples contributions tant pratiques que théoriques. Nous avons tout d'abord montré que les marchés de prédictions étaient adaptés pour correctement apprécier des problématiques complexes. Nous avons également développé une typologie de facteurs de conception ainsi que des propositions de conception pour l'utilisation de ces marchés dans des contextes d'évaluation technologique. Ensuite, nous avons montré que ces marchés pouvaient résoudre une partie des problèmes liés à la gestion des portes-feuille de projets de recherche et développement et proposons une feuille de route pour leur mise en oeuvre. Finalement, en comparant la mise en oeuvre et les résultats d'une méthode de décision multi-critère et d'un marché de prédiction, nous avons montré que ces derniers étaient plus efficaces, tout en offrant des résultats semblables. Nous proposons également un cadre de comparaison des méthodes d'évaluation technologiques, permettant de cerner au mieux les besoins en fonction de facteurs de contingence. En conclusion, notre recherche ouvre un nouveau champ d'application des marchés de prédiction et devrait permettre d'accélérer leur adoption par les entreprises.

A randomized trial of spiritual assessment of outpatients with schizophrenia: Patients' and clinicians' experience

Objective: Recovery-oriented care for patients with schizophrenia involves consideration of cultural issues, such as religion and spirituality. However, there is evidence that psychiatrists rarely address such topics. This study examined acceptance of a spiritual assessment by patients and clinicians, suggestions for treatment that arose from the assessment, and patient outcomes-in terms of treatment compliance and satisfaction with care (as measured by treatment alliance). Methods: Outpatients with psychosis were randomly assigned to two groups: an intervention group that received traditional treatment and a religious and spiritual assessment (N=40) and a control group that received only traditional treatment (N=38). Eight psychiatrists were trained to administer the assessment to their established and stable patients. After each administration, the psychiatrist attended a supervision session with a psychiatrist and a psychologist of religion. Baseline and three-month data were collected. Results: The spiritual assessment was well accepted by patients. During supervision, psychiatrists reported potential clinical uses for the assessment information for 67% of patients. No between-group differences in medication adherence and satisfaction with care were found at three months, although patients in the in- tervention group had significantly better appointment attendance dur- ing the follow-up period. Their interest in discussing religion and spirituality with their psychiatrists remained high. The process was not as well accepted by psychiatrists. Conclusions: Spiritual assessment can raise important clinical issues in the treatment of patients with chronic schizophrenia. Cultural factors, such as religion and spirituality, should be considered early in clinical training, because many clinicians are not at ease addressing such topics with patients.

Concurrent or Sequential Adjuvant Hormonoradiotherapy after Conservative Surgery for Early-Stage Breast Cancer: Clinical Results of the CO-HO-RT Phase II Randomized Trial.

Purpose: Letrozole (LET) has recently been shown to be superior to tamoxifen for postmenopausal patients (pts). In addition, LET radiosensitizes breast cancer cells in vitro. We conducted a phase II randomized study to evaluate concurrent and sequential radiotherapy (RT)-LET in the adjuvant setting. We present here clinical results with a minimum follow-up of 24 months. Patients and Methods: Postmenopausal pts with early-stage breast cancer were randomized after conservative surgery to either: A) concurrent RT-LET (LET started 3 weeks before the first day of RT) or B) sequential RT-LET (LET started 3 weeks after the end of RT). Whole breast RT was delivered to a total dose of 50 Gy. A 10-16 Gy boost was allowed according to age and pathological prognostic factors. Pts were stratified by center, adjuvant chemotherapy, boost, and radiation-induced CD8 apoptosis (RILA). RILA was performed before RT as previously published (Ozsahin et al. Clin Cancer Res, 2005). An independent monitoring committee reviewed individual safety data. Skin toxicities were evaluated by two different clinicians at each medical visit (CTCAE v3.0). Lung CT-scan and functional pulmonary tests were performed regularly. DNA samples were screened for SNPs in candidate genes as recently published (Azria et al., Clin Cancer Res, 2008). Results: A total of 150 pts were randomized between 01/05 and 02/07. Median follow-up is 26 months (range, 3-40 months). No statistical differences were identified between the two arms in terms of mean age; initial TNM; median surgical bed volume; post surgical breast volume. Chemotherapy and RT boost were delivered in 19% and 38% of pts, respectively. Nodes received 50 Gy in 23% of patients without differences between both arms. During RT and within the first 6 weeks after RT, 10 patients (6.7%) presented grade 3 acute skin dermatitis during RT but no differences were observed between both arms (4 and 6 patients in arm A and B, respectively). At 26 month of follow-up, grade 2 and more radiation-induced subcutaneous fibrosis (RISCF) was present in 4 patients (3%) without any difference between arm A (n = 2) and B (n = 2), p=0.93. In both arms, all patients that presented a RICSF had a RILA lower than 16%. Sensitivity and specificity were 100% and 39%, respectively.No acute lung toxicities were observed and quality of life was good to excellent for all patients.SNPs analyses are still on-going (Pr Rosenstein, NY). Conclusion: Acute and early late grade 2 dermatitis were similar in both arms. The only factor that influenced RISCF was a low radiation-induced lymphocyte apoptosis yield. We confirmed prospectively the capacity of RILA for identifying hypersensitive patients to radiation. Indeed, patients with RILA superior to 16% did not present late effects to radiation and confirmed the first prospective trial we published in 2005 (Ozsahin et al., Clin Cancer Res).

A quasi-randomized group trial of a brief alcohol intervention on risky single occasion drinking among secondary school students.

OBJECTIVES: To show the effectiveness of a brief group alcohol intervention. Aims of the intervention were to reduce the frequency of heavy drinking occasions, maximum number of drinks on an occasion and overall weekly consumption. METHODS: A cluster quasi-randomized control trial (intervention n = 338; control n = 330) among 16- to 18-year-old secondary school students in the Swiss Canton of Zürich. Groups homogeneous for heavy drinking occasions (5+/4+ drinks for men/women) consisted of those having medium risk (3-4) or high risk (5+) occasions in the past 30 days. Groups of 8-10 individuals received two 45-min sessions based on motivational interviewing techniques. RESULTS: Borderline significant beneficial effects (p < 0.10) on heavy drinking occasions and alcohol volume were found 6 months later for the medium-risk group only, but not for the high-risk group. None of the effects remained significant after Bonferroni corrections. CONCLUSIONS: Group intervention was ineffective for all at-risk users. The heaviest drinkers may need more intensive treatment. Alternative explanations were iatrogenic effects among the heaviest drinkers, assessment reactivity, or reduction of social desirability bias at follow-up through peer feedback.

State of Iowa Transportation Map, 2011

This document is the State Map of Iowa, both front and back of the year in the title. All maps were are in pdf format and can be used as a historical reference.

Vehicle Traffic Map, 2010

Vehicle Traffic Map produced by the Iowa Department of Transportation.

Truck Traffic Map, 2010

Vehicle Traffic Map produced by the Iowa Department of Transportation.

Iowa State Railroad Map, July 1, 2010

Iowa railroad map of Iowa trains.