A pseudo-marginal sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for random effects models in Bayesian sequential design

A computationally efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed for the sequential design of experiments for the collection of block data described by mixed effects models. The difficulty in applying a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm in such settings is the need to evaluate the observed data likelihood, which is typically intractable for all but linear Gaussian models. To overcome this difficulty, we propose to unbiasedly estimate the likelihood, and perform inference and make decisions based on an exact-approximate algorithm. Two estimates are proposed: using Quasi Monte Carlo methods and using the Laplace approximation with importance sampling. Both of these approaches can be computationally expensive, so we propose exploiting parallel computational architectures to ensure designs can be derived in a timely manner. We also extend our approach to allow for model uncertainty. This research is motivated by important pharmacological studies related to the treatment of critically ill patients.

Understanding public response to a congestion charge : a random-effects ordered logit approach

Public acceptance is consistently listed as having an enormous impact on the implementation and success of a congestion charge scheme. This paper investigates public acceptance of such a scheme in Australia. Surveys were conducted in Brisbane and Melbourne, the two fastest growing Australian cities. Using an ordered logit modeling approach, the survey data including stated preferences were analyzed to pinpoint the important factors influencing people’s attitudes to a congestion charge and, in turn, to their transport mode choices. To accommodate the nature of, and to account for the resulting heterogeneity of the panel data, random effects were considered in the models. As expected, this study found that the amount of the congestion charge and the financial benefits of implementing it have a significant influence on respondents’ support for the charge and on the likelihood of their taking a bus to city areas. However, respondents’ current primary transport mode for travelling to the city areas has a more pronounced impact. Meanwhile, respondents’ perceptions of the congestion charge’s role in protecting the environment by reducing vehicle emissions, and of the extent to which the charge would mean that they travelled less frequently to the city for shopping or entertainment, also have a significant impact on their level of support for its implementation. We also found and explained notable differences across two cities. Finally, findings from this study have been fully discussed in relation to the literature.

Maternal psychological distress mediates the relationship between asthma and physician visits in a population-based sample of adolescents

Objective This study examined whether maternal psychological distress mediates the relationship between presence of adolescent asthma and number of physician visits, and whether the association between maternal psychological distress and physician visits is moderated by adolescent general health. Methods Data were obtained from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy and included 4025 adolescents. Path analysis was used to examine mediating and moderating effects. Results Maternal psychological distress was found to partially mediate the relationship between adolescent asthma and number of physician visits, accounting for 25% of the effect of adolescent asthma on physician visits (p = .046). There was no evidence to suggest that adolescent general health moderated the association between maternal psychological distress and physician visits (p = .093). Conclusions The findings suggest that maternal psychological distress is associated with increased physician visits, regardless of adolescents' general health. Lowering maternal psychological distress may serve to reduce health care utilization and costs among adolescents with asthma.

On-line estimation of Allan variance parameters

A new online method is presented for estimation of the angular random walk and rate random walk coefficients of IMU (inertial measurement unit) gyros and accelerometers. The online method proposes a state space model and proposes parameter estimators for quantities previously measured from off-line data techniques such as the Allan variance graph. Allan variance graphs have large off-line computational effort and data storage requirements. The technique proposed here requires no data storage and computational effort of O(100) calculations per data sample.

Factors influencing robustness and effectiveness of conditional random fields in active learning frameworks

Active learning approaches reduce the annotation cost required by traditional supervised approaches to reach the same effectiveness by actively selecting informative instances during the learning phase. However, effectiveness and robustness of the learnt models are influenced by a number of factors. In this paper we investigate the factors that affect the effectiveness, more specifically in terms of stability and robustness, of active learning models built using conditional random fields (CRFs) for information extraction applications. Stability, defined as a small variation of performance when small variation of the training data or a small variation of the parameters occur, is a major issue for machine learning models, but even more so in the active learning framework which aims to minimise the amount of training data required. The factors we investigate are a) the choice of incremental vs. standard active learning, b) the feature set used as a representation of the text (i.e., morphological features, syntactic features, or semantic features) and c) Gaussian prior variance as one of the important CRFs parameters. Our empirical findings show that incremental learning and the Gaussian prior variance lead to more stable and robust models across iterations. Our study also demonstrates that orthographical, morphological and contextual features as a group of basic features play an important role in learning effective models across all iterations.

The relationship between emotional intelligence and depression in a clinical sample

Background and Objectives: Although depression is a commonly occurring mental illness, research concerning strategies for early detection and prophylaxis has not until now focused on the possible utility of measures of Emotional Intelligence (EI) as a potential predictive factor. The current study aimed to investigate the relationship between EI and a clinical diagnosis of depression in a cohort of adults. Methods: Sixty-two patients (59.70% female) with a DSM-IV-TR diagnosis of a major affective disorder and 39 aged matched controls (56.40% female) completed self-report instruments assessing EI and depression in a cross-sectional study. Results: Significant associations were observed between severity of depression and the EI dimensions of Emotional Management (r = -0.56) and Emotional Control (r = -0.62). The results show a reduced social involvement, an increased prior institutionalization and an increased incidence of "Schizophrenic Psychosis" and "Abnormal Personalities" in the sub-group of repeated admissions. Conclusions: Measures of EI may have predictive value in terms of early identification of those at risk for developing depression. The current study points to the potential value of conducting further studies of a prospective nature.

Audit pricing and product differentiation in small private firms : evidence from Thailand

Purpose – There is limited evidence on how differences in economic environments affect the demand for and supply of auditing. Research on audit pricing has mainly focused on large client markets in developed economies; in contrast, the purpose of this paper is to focus on the small client segment in the emerging economy of Thailand which offers a choice between auditors of two different qualities. Design/methodology/approach – This paper is based on a random stratified sample of small clients in Thailand qualifying for audit exemption. The final sample consists of 1,950 firm-year observations for 2002-2006. Findings – The authors find evidence of product differentiation in the small client market, suggesting that small firms view certified public accountants as superior and pay a premium for their services. The authors also find that audit fees have a positive significant association with leverage, metropolitan location and client size. Audit risk and audit opinion are not, however, significantly associated with audit fees. Furthermore, the authors find no evidence that clients whose financial year ends in the auditors’ busy period pay significantly higher audit fees, and auditors engage in low-balling on initial engagements to attract audit clients. Research limitations/implications – The research shows the importance of exploring actual decisions regarding audit practice and audit pricing in different institutional and organizational settings. Originality/value – The paper extends the literature from developed economies and large/listed market setting to the emerging economy and small client market setting. As far as the authors are aware, this is the first paper to examine audit pricing in the small client market in an emerging economy.

A description of neck motor performance, neck pain, fatigue, and mental effort while driving in a sample with chronic whiplash-associated disorders

Objective: Individuals with chronic whiplash-associated disorders (WADs) often note driving as a difficult task. This study’s aims were to (1) compare, while driving, neck motor performance, mental effort, and fatigue in individuals with chronic WAD against healthy controls and (2) investigate the relationships of these variables and neck pain to self-reported driving difficulty in the WAD group. Design: This study involved 14 participants in each group (WAD and control). Measures included self-reported driving difficulty and measures of neck pain intensity, overall fatigue, mental effort, and neck motor performance (head rotation and upper trapezius activity) while driving a simulator. Results: The WAD group had greater absolute path of head rotation in a simulated city area and used greater mental effort (P = 0.04), but there were no differences in other measures while driving compared with the controls (all P Q 0.05). Self-reported driving difficulty correlated moderately with neck pain intensity, fatigue level, and maximum velocity of head rotation while driving in the WAD group (all P G 0.05). Conclusions: Individuals with chronic WAD do not seem to have impaired neck motor performance while driving yet use greater mental effort. Neck pain, fatigue, and maximum head rotation velocity could be potential contributors to self-reported driving difficulty in this group.

Using extended random set to find specific patterns

With the overwhelming increase in the amount of data on the web and data bases, many text mining techniques have been proposed for mining useful patterns in text documents. Extracting closed sequential patterns using the Pattern Taxonomy Model (PTM) is one of the pruning methods to remove noisy, inconsistent, and redundant patterns. However, PTM model treats each extracted pattern as whole without considering included terms, which could affect the quality of extracted patterns. This paper propose an innovative and effective method that extends the random set to accurately weigh patterns based on their distribution in the documents and their terms distribution in patterns. Then, the proposed approach will find the specific closed sequential patterns (SCSP) based on the new calculated weight. The experimental results on Reuters Corpus Volume 1 (RCV1) data collection and TREC topics show that the proposed method significantly outperforms other state-of-the-art methods in different popular measures.

Towards coordinated multirobot missions for lunar sample collection in an unknown environment

In this paper, the recent results of the space project IMPERA are presented. The goal of IMPERA is the development of a multirobot planning and plan execution architecture with a focus on a lunar sample collection scenario in an unknown environment. We describe the implementation and verification of different modules that are integrated into a distributed system architecture. The modules include a mission planning approach for a multirobot system and modules for task and skill execution within a lunar use-case scenario. The skills needed for the test scenario include cooperative exploration and mapping strategies for an unknown environment, the localization and classification of sample containers using a novel approach of semantic perception, and the skill of transporting sample containers to a collection point using a mobile manipulation robot. Additionally, we present our approach of a reliable communication framework that can deal with communication loss during the mission. Several modules are tested within several experiments in the domain of planning and plan execution, communication, coordinated exploration, perception, and object transportation. An overall system integration is tested on a mission scenario experiment using three robots.

Catching drink drivers in Queensland through Random Breath Testing : what does the last decade of data tell us

Background Random Breath Testing (RBT) has proven to be a cornerstone of enforcement attempts to deter (as well as apprehend) motorists from drink driving in Queensland (Australia) for decades. However, scant published research has examined the relationship between the frequency of implementing RBT activities and subsequent drink driving apprehension rates across time. Aim This study aimed to examine the prevalence of apprehending drink drivers in Queensland over a 12 year period. It was hypothesised that an increase in breath testing rates would result in a corresponding decrease in the frequency of drink driving apprehension rates over time, which would reflect general deterrent effects. Method The Queensland Police Service provided RBT data that was analysed. Results Between the 1st of January 2000 and 31st of December 2011, 35,082,386 random breath tests (both mobile and stationary) were conducted in Queensland, resulting in 248,173 individuals being apprehended for drink driving offences. A total of 342,801 offences were recorded during this period, representing an intercept rate of .96. Of these offences, 276,711 (80.72%) were recorded against males and 66,024 (19.28%) offences committed by females. The most common drink driving offence was between 0.05 and 0.08 BAC limit. The largest proportion of offences was detected on the weekends, with Saturdays (27.60%) proving to be the most common drink driving night followed by Sundays (21.41%). The prevalence of drink driving detection rates rose steadily across time, peaking in 2008 and 2009, before slightly declining. This decline was observed across all Queensland regions and any increase in annual figures was due to new offence types being developed. Discussion This paper will further outline the major findings of the study in regards to tailoring RBT operations to increase detection rates as well as improve the general deterrent effect of the initiative.

Investigating pedestrian injury crashes on modern roundabouts in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Pedestrian crashes are one of the major road safety problems in developing countries representing about 40% of total fatal crashes in low income countries. Despite the fact that many pedestrian crashes in these countries occur at unsignalized intersections such as roundabouts, studies focussing on this issue are limited—thus representing a critical research gap. The objective of this study is to develop safety performance functions for pedestrian crashes at modern roundabouts to identify significant roadway geometric, traffic and land use characteristics related to pedestrian safety. To establish the relationship between pedestrian crashes and various causal factors, detailed data including various forms of exposure, geometric and traffic characteristics, and spatial factors such as proximity to schools and proximity to drinking establishments were collected from a sample of 22 modern roundabouts in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, representing about 56% of such roundabouts in Addis Ababa. To account for spatial correlation resulting from multiple observations at a roundabout, both the random effect Poisson (REP) and random effect Negative Binomial (RENB) regression models were estimated and compared. Model goodness of fit statistics reveal a marginally superior fit of the REP model compared to the RENB model of pedestrian crashes at roundabouts. Pedestrian crossing volume and the product of traffic volumes along major and minor road had significant and positive associations with pedestrian crashes at roundabouts. The presence of a public transport (bus/taxi) terminal beside a roundabout is associated with increased pedestrian crashes. While the maximum gradient of an approach road is negatively associated with pedestrian safety, the provision of a raised median along an approach appears to increase pedestrian safety at roundabouts. Remedial measures are identified for combating pedestrian safety problems at roundabouts in the context of a developing country.

Estimating link-dependent origin-destination matrices from sample trajectories and traffic counts

In transport networks, Origin-Destination matrices (ODM) are classically estimated from road traffic counts whereas recent technologies grant also access to sample car trajectories. One example is the deployment in cities of Bluetooth scanners that measure the trajectories of Bluetooth equipped cars. Exploiting such sample trajectory information, the classical ODM estimation problem is here extended into a link-dependent ODM (LODM) one. This much larger size estimation problem is formulated here in a variational form as an inverse problem. We develop a convex optimization resolution algorithm that incorporates network constraints. We study the result of the proposed algorithm on simulated network traffic.

An autonomous mobile manipulator for collecting sample containers

In this work we present an autonomous mobile ma- nipulator that is used to collect sample containers in an unknown environment. The manipulator is part of a team of heterogeneous mobile robots that are to search and identify sample containers in an unknown environment. A map of the environment along with possible positions of sample containers are shared between the robots in the team by using a cloud-based communication interface. To grasp a container with its manipulator arm the robot has to place itself in a position suitable for the manipulation task. This optimal base placement pose is selected by querying a precomputed inverse reachability database.