Influence of habitat and climate change on European bird communities

Die Fragmentierung von Waldgebieten, der Verlust geeigneter Habitate, die Invasion exotischer Arten und globale Klimaveränderung haben auf Artengemeinschaften erhebliche Auswirkungen. Vögel dienen in vielen Fällen als Indikatorarten für Umweltveränderungen und, besonders, für Veränderungen im Zusammenhang mit globaler Erwärmung. In meiner Arbeit habe ich zuerst einen Literaturüberblick über die Auswirkungen globaler Klimaveränderung auf die Verbreitungsgebiete, den Artenreichtum und die Zusammensetzung von Vogelgemeinschaften dargestellt. Zahlreiche Untersuchungen zeigen, daß die Grenzen der Verbreitungsgebiete der meisten Vogelarten mit klimatischen Faktoren korrelieren. Verschiebungen der Verbreitungsgebiete in nördliche Richtung oder in höhere Regionen im Gebirge konnten bereits für viele temperate Vogelarten beobachtet werden. Weiterhin wurde ein zunehmender Artenreichtum besonders in nördlichen Breiten und in höheren Lagen für viele temperate Vogelgemeinschaften vorhergesagt. In trockenen Gebieten ist dagegen mit einer Abnahme des Artenreichtums zu rechnen. Im zweiten Teil meiner Arbeit habe ich untersucht, ob beobachtete Veränderungen in der Zusammensetzung europäischer Vogelgemeinschaften tatsächlich durch aktuelle Klimaveränderungen beeinflußt werden. Das Zugverhalten der Arten war dabei ein Schwerpunkt der Untersuchung, weil zu erwarten war, daß Vogelarten mit verschiedenem Zugverhalten unterschiedlich auf Klimaveränderungen reagieren. Ich habe ein Regressionsmodell genutzt, welches die räumliche Beziehung zwischen dem Anteil von Langstreckenziehern, Kurzstreckenziehern und Standvögeln in europäischen Vogelgemeinschaften und verschiedenen Klimavariablen beschreibt. Für 21 Gebiete in Europa habe ich Daten über beobachtete Veränderungen in der Struktur der Vogelgemeinschaften und isochrone Klimaveränderungen zusammengetragen. Mit Hilfe dieser Klimaveränderungen und dem räumlichen Regressionsmodell konnte ich berechnen, welche Veränderungen in den Vogelgemeinschaften aufgrund der veränderten Klimabedingungen zu erwarten wären und sie mit beobachteten Veränderungen vergleichen. Beobachtete und berechnete Veränderungen korrelierten signifikant miteinander. Die beobachteten Veränderungen konnten nicht durch räumliche Autokorrelationseffekte oder durch alternative Faktoren, wie z.B. Veränderungen in der Landnutzung, erklärt werden. Im dritten Teil der Arbeit untersuchte ich für eine mitteleuropäische Vogelgemeinschaft welchen Einfluß Habitatveränderungen, die Invasion exotischer Arten und die Klimaveränderung auf Veränderungen der Häufigkeit und Verbreitungsgröße der 159 Vogelarten am Bodensee zwischen 1980-1981 und 2000-2002 hatten. Dabei konnte gezeigt werden, daß Veränderungen in der regionalen Abundanz sowohl durch Habitatveränderungen als auch durch Klimavänderungen hervorgerufen wurden. Exotische Arten schienen in dieser Zeit keinen bedeutenden Einfluß zu haben. Besonders bei Agrarlandarten, Arten mit nördlicheren Verbreitungsgebieten und bei Langstreckenziehern konnten signifikante Abnahmen in der Abundanz beobachtet werden. Vor allem die anhaltenden negativen Bestandsveränderungen bei Langstreckenziehern und die in den letzten zehn Jahren aufgetretenen Abnahmen nördlicher verbreiteter Vogelarten deuten darauf hin, daß die Klimaveränderung aktuell als der größte Einfluß für Vögel in Europa angesehen werden muß. Insgesamt zeigen die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit, daß sich der anhaltende Druck auf die Umwelt in erster Linie durch Habitat- und Klimaveränderungen manifestiert.

Carbon fluxes and allocation pattern in an apple orchard

Carbon fluxes and allocation pattern, and their relationship with the main environmental and physiological parameters, were studied in an apple orchard for one year (2010). I combined three widely used methods: eddy covariance, soil respiration and biometric measurements, and I applied a measurement protocol allowing a cross-check between C fluxes estimated using different methods. I attributed NPP components to standing biomass increment, detritus cycle and lateral export. The influence of environmental and physiological parameters on NEE, GPP and Reco was analyzed with a multiple regression model approach. I found that both NEP and GPP of the apple orchard were of similar magnitude to those of forests growing in similar climate conditions, while large differences occurred in the allocation pattern and in the fate of produced biomass. Apple production accounted for 49% of annual NPP, organic material (leaves, fine root litter, pruned wood and early fruit drop) contributing to detritus cycle was 46%, and only 5% went to standing biomass increment. The carbon use efficiency (CUE), with an annual average of 0.68 ± 0.10, was higher than the previously suggested constant values of 0.47-0.50. Light and leaf area index had the strongest influence on both NEE and GPP. On a diurnal basis, NEE and GPP reached their peak approximately at noon, while they appeared to be limited by high values of VPD and air temperature in the afternoon. The proposed models can be used to explain and simulate current relations between carbon fluxes and environmental parameters at daily and yearly time scale. On average, the annual NEP balanced the carbon annually exported with the harvested apples. These data support the hypothesis of a minimal or null impact of the apple orchard ecosystem on net C emission to the atmosphere.

Multilevel Analysis in Household Survey: An Application to Health Condition Data

The aim of this thesis is to apply multilevel regression model in context of household surveys. Hierarchical structure in this type of data is characterized by many small groups. In last years comparative and multilevel analysis in the field of perceived health have grown in size. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a multilevel analysis with three level of hierarchy for Physical Component Summary outcome to: evaluate magnitude of within and between variance at each level (individual, household and municipality); explore which covariates affect on perceived physical health at each level; compare model-based and design-based approach in order to establish informativeness of sampling design; estimate a quantile regression for hierarchical data. The target population are the Italian residents aged 18 years and older. Our study shows a high degree of homogeneity within level 1 units belonging from the same group, with an intraclass correlation of 27% in a level-2 null model. Almost all variance is explained by level 1 covariates. In fact, in our model the explanatory variables having more impact on the outcome are disability, unable to work, age and chronic diseases (18 pathologies). An additional analysis are performed by using novel procedure of analysis :"Linear Quantile Mixed Model", named "Multilevel Linear Quantile Regression", estimate. This give us the possibility to describe more generally the conditional distribution of the response through the estimation of its quantiles, while accounting for the dependence among the observations. This has represented a great advantage of our models with respect to classic multilevel regression. The median regression with random effects reveals to be more efficient than the mean regression in representation of the outcome central tendency. A more detailed analysis of the conditional distribution of the response on other quantiles highlighted a differential effect of some covariate along the distribution.

Studio caso-controllo multicentrico su distacco di retina e movimentazione manuale di carichi

Obiettivo Valutare l’ipotesi secondo cui la movimentazione manuale di carichi possa essere un fattore di rischio per il di distacco di retina. Metodi Si è condotto uno studio caso-controllo ospedaliero multicentrico, a Bologna, (reparto di Oculistica del policlinico S. Orsola Malpighi, Prof. Campos), e a Brescia (reparto di oculistica “Spedali Civili” Prof. Semeraro). I casi sono 104 pazienti operati per distacco di retina. I controlli sono 173 pazienti reclutati tra l’utenza degli ambulatori del medesimo reparto di provenienza dei casi. Sia i casi che i controlli (all’oscuro dall’ipotesi in studio) sono stati sottoposti ad un’intervista, attraverso un questionario strutturato concernente caratteristiche individuali, patologie pregresse e fattori di rischio professionali (e non) relativi al distacco di retina. I dati relativi alla movimentazione manuale di carichi sono stati utilizzati per creare un “indice di sollevamento cumulativo―ICS” (peso del carico sollevato x numero di sollevamenti/ora x numero di anni di sollevamento). Sono stati calcolati mediante un modello di regressione logistica unconditional (aggiustato per età e sesso) gli Odds Ratio (OR) relativi all’associazione tra distacco di retina e vari fattori di rischio, tra cui la movimentazione manuale di carichi. Risultati Oltre alla chirurgia oculare e alla miopia (fattori di rischio noti), si evidenzia un trend positivo tra l’aumento dell’ICS e il rischio di distacco della retina. Il rischio maggiore si osserva per la categoria di sollevamento severo (OR 3.6, IC 95%, 1.5–9.0). Conclusione I risultati, mostrano un maggiore rischio di sviluppare distacco di retina per coloro che svolgono attività lavorative che comportino la movimentazione manuale di carichi e, a conferma di quanto riportato in letteratura, anche per i soggetti miopi e per coloro che sono stati sottoposti ad intervento di cataratta. Si rende quindi evidente l’importanza degli interventi di prevenzione in soggetti addetti alla movimentazione manuale di carichi, in particolare se miopi.

Sviluppo economico e qualità istituzionale: il ruolo di disuguaglianza e corruzione

Nell'ambito delle teorie dello sviluppo, un filone di studi, originato dai lavori di North (1973) e consolidatosi negli ultimi anni, individua nelle istituzioni, definite come le regole del gioco o i vincoli disegnati dagli uomini per disciplinare i loro rapporti, i fattori fondamentali dello sviluppo economico. Le istituzioni, nel modello elaborato da Acemoglu, Johnson e Robinson (2004), sono il frutto di interazioni dinamiche tra potere politico de jure, determinato dalle istituzioni politiche, e potere politico de facto, determinato dalla distribuzione delle risorse economiche. Sulla base di questa prospettiva teorica, questa tesi propone uno studio di carattere quantitativo sulla qualità istituzionale, la traduzione operativa del concetto di istituzioni, composta dalle tre fondamentali dimensioni di democrazia, efficienza ed efficacia del governo e assenza di corruzione. La prima parte, che analizza sistematicamente pro e contro di ciascuna tipologia di indicatori, è dedicata alla revisione delle misure quantitative di qualità istituzionale, e individua nei Worldwide Governance Indicators la misura più solida e consistente. Questi indici sono quindi utilizzati nella seconda parte, dove si propone un'analisi empirica sulle determinanti della qualità istituzionale. Le stime del modello di regressione cross-country evidenziano che la qualità istituzionale è influenzata da alcuni fattori prevalentemente esogeni come la geografia, la disponibilità di risorse naturali e altre caratteristiche storiche e culturali, insieme ad altri fattori di carattere più endogeno. In quest'ultima categoria, i risultati evidenziano un effetto positivo del livello di sviluppo economico, mentre la disuguaglianza economica mostra un impatto negativo su ciascuna delle tre dimensioni di qualità istituzionale, in particolare sulla corruzione. Questi risultati supportano la prospettiva teorica e suggeriscono che azioni di policy orientate alla riduzione delle disparità sono capaci di generare sviluppo rafforzando la democrazia, migliorando l'efficienza complessiva del sistema economico e riducendo i livelli di corruzione.

Predicting adverse events in children with fever and chemotherapy-induced neutropenia: the prospective multicenter SPOG 2003 FN study

PURPOSE To develop a score predicting the risk of adverse events (AEs) in pediatric patients with cancer who experience fever and neutropenia (FN) and to evaluate its performance. PATIENTS AND METHODS Pediatric patients with cancer presenting with FN induced by nonmyeloablative chemotherapy were observed in a prospective multicenter study. A score predicting the risk of future AEs (ie, serious medical complication, microbiologically defined infection, radiologically confirmed pneumonia) was developed from a multivariate mixed logistic regression model. Its cross-validated predictive performance was compared with that of published risk prediction rules. Results An AE was reported in 122 (29%) of 423 FN episodes. In 57 episodes (13%), the first AE was known only after reassessment after 8 to 24 hours of inpatient management. Predicting AE at reassessment was better than prediction at presentation with FN. A differential leukocyte count did not increase the predictive performance. The score predicting future AE in 358 episodes without known AE at reassessment used the following four variables: preceding chemotherapy more intensive than acute lymphoblastic leukemia maintenance (weight = 4), hemoglobin > or = 90 g/L (weight = 5), leukocyte count less than 0.3 G/L (weight = 3), and platelet count less than 50 G/L (weight = 3). A score (sum of weights) > or = 9 predicted future AEs. The cross-validated performance of this score exceeded the performance of published risk prediction rules. At an overall sensitivity of 92%, 35% of the episodes were classified as low risk, with a specificity of 45% and a negative predictive value of 93%. CONCLUSION This score, based on four routinely accessible characteristics, accurately identifies pediatric patients with cancer with FN at risk for AEs after reassessment.

Comparison of two scoring systems for evaluation of treatment outcome in patients with complete bilateral cleft lip and palate

Objective : To compare two scoring systems: the Huddart/Bodenham system (HB system) and the Bauru-BCLP yardstick (BCLP yardstick), which classify treatment outcome in terms of dental arch relationships in patients with complete bilateral cleft lip and palate (CBCLP). The predictive value of these scoring systems for treatment outcome was also evaluated. Design : Retrospective longitudinal study. Patients : Dental arch relationships of 43 CBCLP patients were evaluated at 6, 9, and 12 years. Setting : Treatment outcome in BCLP patients using two scoring systems. Main Outcome Measures : For each age group, the HB scores were correlated with the BCLP yardstick scores using Spearman's correlation coefficient. The predictive value of the two scoring systems was evaluated by backward regression analysis. Results : Intraobserver Kappa values for the BCLP yardstick scoring for the two observers were .506 and .627, respectively, and the interobserver reliability ranged from .427 and .581. The intraobserver reliability for the HB system ranged from .92 to .97 and the interobserver reliability from .88 to .96. The BCLP yardstick scores of 6 and 9 years together were predictors for the outcome at 12 years (explained variance 41.3%). Adding the incisor and lateral HB scores in the regression model increased the explained variance to 67%. Conclusions : The BCLP yardstick and the HB system are reliable scoring systems for evaluation of dental arch relationships of CBCLP patients. The HB system categorizes treatment outcome into similar categories as the BCLP yardstick. In case a more sensitive measure of treatment outcome is needed, selectively both scoring systems should be used.

Prediction of Psychosis by Mismatch Negativity

BACKGROUND: To develop risk-adapted prevention of psychosis, an accurate estimation of the individual risk of psychosis at a given time is needed. Inclusion of biological parameters into multilevel prediction models is thought to improve predictive accuracy of models on the basis of clinical variables. To this aim, mismatch negativity (MMN) was investigated in a sample clinically at high risk, comparing individuals with and without subsequent conversion to psychosis. METHODS: At baseline, an auditory oddball paradigm was used in 62 subjects meeting criteria of a late risk at-state who remained antipsychotic-naive throughout the study. Median follow-up period was 32 months (minimum of 24 months in nonconverters, n = 37). Repeated-measures analysis of covariance was employed to analyze the MMN recorded at frontocentral electrodes; additional comparisons with healthy controls (HC, n = 67) and first-episode schizophrenia patients (FES, n = 33) were performed. Predictive value was evaluated by a Cox regression model. RESULTS: Compared with nonconverters, duration MMN in converters (n = 25) showed significantly reduced amplitudes across the six frontocentral electrodes; the same applied in comparison with HC, but not FES, whereas the duration MMN in in nonconverters was comparable to HC and larger than in FES. A prognostic score was calculated based on a Cox regression model and stratified into two risk classes, which showed significantly different survival curves. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate the duration MMN is significantly reduced in at-risk subjects converting to first-episode psychosis compared with nonconverters and may contribute not only to the prediction of conversion but also to a more individualized risk estimation and thus risk-adapted prevention.

Safety, effectiveness and predictors for early reoperation in therapeutic and prophylactic vertebroplasty: short-term results of a prospective case series of patients with osteoporotic vertebral fractures

Abstract Introduction Vertebroplasty (VP) is a cost-efficient alternative to kyphoplasty; however, regarding safety and vertebral body (VB) height restoration, it is considered inferior. We assessed the safety and efficacy of VP in alleviating pain, improving quality of life (QoL) and restoring alignment. Methods In a prospective monocenter case series from May 2007 until July 2008, there were 1,408 vertebroplasties performed during 319 interventions in 306 patients with traumatic, lytic and osteoporotic fractures. The 249 interventions in 233 patients performed because of osteoporotic vertebral fractures were analyzed regarding demographics, treatment and radiographic details, pain alleviation (VAS), QoL improvement (NASS and EQ-5D), complications and predictors for new fractures requiring a reoperation. Results The osteoporotic patient sample consisted of 76.7% (179) females with a median age of 80 years. A total of 54 males had a median age of 77 years. On average, there were 1.8 VBs fractured and 5 VBs treated. The preoperative pain was assessed by the visual analog scale (VAS) and decreased from 54.9 to 40.4 pts after 2 months and 31.2 pts after 6 months. Accordingly, the QoL on the EQ-5D measure (−0.6 to 1) improved from 0.35 pts before surgery to 0.56 pts after 2 and to 0.68 pts after 6 months. The preoperative Beck Index (anterior height/posterior height) improved from a mean of 0.64 preoperative to 0.76 postoperative, remained stable at 2 months and slightly deteriorated to 0.72 at 6 months postoperatively. There were cement leakages in 26% of the fractured VBs and in 1.4% of the prophylactically cemented VBs; there were symptoms in 4.3%, and most of them were temporary hypotension and one pulmonary cement embolism that remained asymptomatic. The univariate regression model revealed a tendency for a reduced risk for new or refractures on radiographs (OR = 2.61, 95% CI 0.92–7.38, p = 0.12) and reoperations (OR = 2.9, 95% CI 0.94–8.949, p = 0.1) when prophylactic augmentation was performed. The final multivariate regression model revealed male patients to have an about three times higher refracture risk (radiographic) (OR = 2.78, p = 0.02) at 6 months after surgery. Patients with a lumbar index fracture had an about three to five times higher refracture/reoperation risk than patients with a thoracic (OR = 0.33/0.35, p = 0.009/0.01) or thoracolumbar (OR = 0.32/0.22, p = 0.099/0.01) index fracture. Conclusion If routinely used, VP is a safe and efficacious treatment option for osteoporotic vertebral fractures with regard to pain relief and improvement of the QoL. Even segmental realignment can be partially achieved with proper patient positioning. Certain patient or fracture characteristics increase the risk for early radiographic refractures or new fractures, or a reoperation; a consequent prophylactic augmentation showed protective tendencies, but the study was underpowered for a final conclusion.

Real-World Performance of Longitudinal Barriers Struck by Large Trucks

Outside of relatively limited crash testing with large trucks, very little is known regarding the performance of traffic barriers subjected to real-world large truck impacts. The purpose of this study was to investigate real-world large truck impacts into traffic barriers to determine barrier crash involvement rates, the impact performance of barriers not specifically designed to redirect large trucks, and the real-world performance of large-truck-specific barriers. Data sources included the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (2000-2009), the General Estimates System (2000-2009) and 155 in-depth large truck-to-barrier crashes from the Large Truck Crash Causation Study. Large truck impacts with a longitudinal barrier were found to comprise 3 percent of all police-reported longitudinal barrier impacts and roughly the same proportion of barrier fatalities. Based on a logistic regression model predicting barrier penetration, large truck barrier penetration risk was found to increase by a factor of 6 for impacts with barriers designed primarily for passenger vehicles. Although large-truck-specific barriers were found to perform better than non-heavy vehicle specific barriers, the penetration rate of these barriers were found to be 17 percent. This penetration rate is especially a concern because the higher test level barriers are designed to protect other road users, not the occupants of the large truck. Surprisingly, barriers not specifically designed for large truck impacts were found to prevent large truck penetration approximately half of the time. This suggests that adding costlier higher test level barriers may not always be warranted, especially on roadways with lower truck volumes.

Mother-Child Spiritual Discourse: A Mixed Methods Study

Parents and children, starting at very young ages, discuss religious and spiritual issues¿where we come from, what happens to us after we die, is there a God, and so on. Unfortunately, few studies have analyzed the content and structure of parent-child conversation about religion and spirituality (Boyatzis & Janicki, 2003; Dollahite & Thatcher, 2009), and most studies have relied on self-report with no direct observation. The current study examined mother-child (M-C) spiritual discourse to learn about its content, structure, and frequency through a survey inventory in combination with direct video observation using a novel structured task. We also analyzed how mothers¿ religiosity along several major dimensions related to their communication behaviors within both methods. Mothers (N = 39, M age = 40) of children aged 3-12 completed a survey packet on M-C spiritual discourse and standard measures of mothers¿ religious fundamentalism, intrinsic religiosity, sanctification of parenting (how much the mother saw herself as doing God¿s work as a parent), and a new measure of parental openness to children¿s spirituality. Then, in a structured task in our lab, mothers (N = 33) and children (M age = 7.33) watched a short film or read a short book that explored death in an age-appropriate manner and then engaged in a videotaped conversation about the movie or book and their religious or spiritual beliefs. Frequency of M-C spiritual discourse was positively related to mothers¿ religious fundamentalism (r = .71, p = .00), intrinsic religiosity (r = .77, p = .00), and sanctification of parenting (r = .79, p = .00), but, surprisingly, was inversely related to mothers¿ v openness to child¿s spirituality (r = -.52, p = .00). Survey data showed that the two most common topics discussed were God (once a week) and religion as it relates to moral issues (once a week). According to mothers their children¿s most common method of initiating spiritual discourse was to repeat what he or she has heard parents or family say about religious issues (M = 2.97; once a week); mothers¿ most common method was to describe their own religious/spiritual beliefs (M = 2.92). Spiritual discourse most commonly occurred either at bedtime or mealtime as reported by 26% of mothers, with the most common triggers reported as daily routine/random thoughts (once a week) and observations of nature (once a week). Mothers¿ most important goals for spiritual discourse were to let their children know that they love them (M = 3.72; very important) and to help them become a good and moral person (M = 3.67; very important). A regression model showed that significant variance in frequency of mother-child spiritual discourse (R2 = .84, p = .00) was predicted by the mothers¿ importance of goals during discourse (ß = 0.46, p = .00), frequency that the mother¿s spirituality was deepened through spiritual discourse (ß = 0.39, p = .00), and the mother¿s fundamentalism (ß = 0.20, p = .05). In a separate regression, the mother¿s comfort in the structured task (ß = 0.70, p = .00), and the number of open-ended questions she asked (ß = -0.26, p = .03) predicted the reciprocity between mother and child (R2 = .62, p = .00). In addition, the mother¿s age (ß = 0.22, p = .059) and comfort during the task (ß = 0.73, p = .00) predicted the child¿s engagement within the structured task. Other findings and theoretical and methodological implications will be discussed.

Impact of left ventricular hypertrophy late after aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality

AIMS: The goal of this study was to assess the prevalence of left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy in patients with aortic stenosis late (>6 months) after aortic valve replacement and its impact on cardiac-related morbidity and mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a single tertiary centre, echocardiographic data of LV muscle mass were collected. Detailed information of medical history and angiographic data were gathered. Ninety-nine of 213 patients (46%) had LV hypertrophy late (mean 5.8 +/- 5.4 years) after aortic valve replacement. LV hypertrophy was associated with impaired exercise capacity, higher New York Heart Association dyspnoea class, a tendency for more frequent chest pain expressed as higher Canadian Cardiovascular Society class, and more rehospitalizations. 24% of patients with normal LV mass vs. 39% of patients with LV hypertrophy reported cardiac-related morbidity (p = 0.04). In a multivariate logistic regression model, LV hypertrophy was an independent predictor of cardiac-related morbidity (odds ratio 2.31, 95% CI 1.08 to 5.41), after correction for gender, baseline ejection fraction, and coronary artery disease and its risk factors. Thirty seven deaths occurred during a total of 1959 patient years of follow-up (mean follow-up 9.6 years). Age at aortic valve replacement (hazard ratio 1.85, 95% CI 1.39 to 2.47, for every 5 years increase in age), coexisting coronary artery disease at the time of surgery (hazard ratio 3.36, 95% CI 1.31 to 8.62), and smoking (hazard ratio 4.82, 95% CI 1.72 to 13.45) were independent predictors of overall mortality late after surgery, but not LV hypertrophy. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with aortic valve replacement for isolated aortic stenosis, LV hypertrophy late after surgery is associated with increased morbidity.

Sleep-wake habits and disorders in a series of 100 adult epilepsy patients--a prospective study

The aim of the study was to assess sleep-wake habits and disorders and excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) in an unselected outpatient epilepsy population. Sleep-wake habits and presence of sleep disorders were assessed by means of a clinical interview and a standard questionnaire in 100 consecutive patients with epilepsy and 90 controls. The questionnaire includes three validated instruments: the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) for EDS, SA-SDQ for sleep apnea (SA), and the Ullanlinna Narcolepsy Scale (UNS) for narcolepsy. Sleep complaints were reported by 30% of epilepsy patients compared to 10% of controls (p=0.001). The average total sleep time was similar in both groups. Insufficient sleep times were suspected in 24% of patients and 33% of controls. Sleep maintenance insomnia was more frequent in epilepsy patients (52% vs. 38%, p=0.06), whereas nightmares (6% vs. 16%, p=0.04) and bruxism (10% vs. 19%, p=0.07) were more frequent in controls. Sleep onset insomnia (34% vs. 28%), EDS (ESS >or=10, 19% vs. 14%), SA (9% vs. 3%), restless legs symptoms (RL-symptoms, 18% vs. 12%) and most parasomnias were similarly frequent in both groups. In a stepwise logistic regression model loud snoring and RL-symptoms were found to be the only independent predictors of EDS in epilepsy patients. In conclusion, sleep-wake habits and the frequency of most sleep disorders are similar in non-selected epilepsy patients as compared to controls. In epilepsy patients, EDS was predicted by a history of loud snoring and RL-symptoms but not by SA or epilepsy-related variables (including type of epilepsy, frequency of seizures, and number of antiepileptic drugs).

Gauss-Seidel Estimation of Generalized Linear Mixed Models with Application to Poisson Modeling of Spatially Varying Disease Rates

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) provide an elegant framework for the analysis of correlated data. Due to the non-closed form of the likelihood, GLMMs are often fit by computational procedures like penalized quasi-likelihood (PQL). Special cases of these models are generalized linear models (GLMs), which are often fit using algorithms like iterative weighted least squares (IWLS). High computational costs and memory space constraints often make it difficult to apply these iterative procedures to data sets with very large number of cases. This paper proposes a computationally efficient strategy based on the Gauss-Seidel algorithm that iteratively fits sub-models of the GLMM to subsetted versions of the data. Additional gains in efficiency are achieved for Poisson models, commonly used in disease mapping problems, because of their special collapsibility property which allows data reduction through summaries. Convergence of the proposed iterative procedure is guaranteed for canonical link functions. The strategy is applied to investigate the relationship between ischemic heart disease, socioeconomic status and age/gender category in New South Wales, Australia, based on outcome data consisting of approximately 33 million records. A simulation study demonstrates the algorithm's reliability in analyzing a data set with 12 million records for a (non-collapsible) logistic regression model.