Language Outcomes of the Play and Language for Autistic Youngsters (PLAY) Project Home Consultation model—An Extended Analysis

The current study is a post-hoc analysis of data from the original randomized control trial of the Play and Language for Autistic Youngsters (PLAY) Home Consultation program, a parent-mediated, DIR/Floortime based early intervention program for children with ASD (Solomon, Van Egeren, Mahone, Huber, & Zimmerman, 2014). We examined 22 children from the original RCT who received the PLAY program. Children were split into two groups (high and lower functioning) based on the ADOS module administered prior to intervention. Fifteen-minute parent-child video sessions were coded through the use of CHILDES transcription software. Child and maternal language, communicative behaviors, and communicative functions were assessed in the natural language samples both pre- and post-intervention. Results demonstrated significant improvements in both child and maternal behaviors following intervention. There was a significant increase in child verbal and non-verbal initiations and verbal responses in whole group analysis. Total number of utterances, word production, and grammatical complexity all significantly improved when viewed across the whole group of participants; however, lexical growth did not reach significance. Changes in child communicative function were especially noteworthy, and demonstrated a significant increase in social interaction and a significant decrease in non-interactive behaviors. Further, mothers demonstrated an increase in responsiveness to the child’s conversational bids, increased ability to follow the child’s lead, and a decrease in directiveness. When separated for analyses within groups, trends emerged for child and maternal variables, suggesting greater gains in use of communicative function in both high and low groups over changes in linguistic structure. Additional analysis also revealed a significant inverse relationship between maternal responsiveness and child non-interactive behaviors; as mothers became more responsive, children’s non-engagement was decreased. Such changes further suggest that changes in learned skills following PLAY parent training may result in improvements in child social interaction and language abilities.

Modelo de avaliação da qualidade da água utilizando geoquímica e bioindicadores

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Geociências, Pós-Graduação em Geociências Aplicadas, 2015.

Credit risk & forward price models

Doutoramento em Gestão

GIS-integrated mathematical modeling of social phenomena at macro- and micro- levels—a multivariate geographically-weighted regression model for identifying locations vulnerable to hosting terrorist safe-houses: France as case study

Adaptability and invisibility are hallmarks of modern terrorism, and keeping pace with its dynamic nature presents a serious challenge for societies throughout the world. Innovations in computer science have incorporated applied mathematics to develop a wide array of predictive models to support the variety of approaches to counterterrorism. Predictive models are usually designed to forecast the location of attacks. Although this may protect individual structures or locations, it does not reduce the threat—it merely changes the target. While predictive models dedicated to events or social relationships receive much attention where the mathematical and social science communities intersect, models dedicated to terrorist locations such as safe-houses (rather than their targets or training sites) are rare and possibly nonexistent. At the time of this research, there were no publically available models designed to predict locations where violent extremists are likely to reside. This research uses France as a case study to present a complex systems model that incorporates multiple quantitative, qualitative and geospatial variables that differ in terms of scale, weight, and type. Though many of these variables are recognized by specialists in security studies, there remains controversy with respect to their relative importance, degree of interaction, and interdependence. Additionally, some of the variables proposed in this research are not generally recognized as drivers, yet they warrant examination based on their potential role within a complex system. This research tested multiple regression models and determined that geographically-weighted regression analysis produced the most accurate result to accommodate non-stationary coefficient behavior, demonstrating that geographic variables are critical to understanding and predicting the phenomenon of terrorism. This dissertation presents a flexible prototypical model that can be refined and applied to other regions to inform stakeholders such as policy-makers and law enforcement in their efforts to improve national security and enhance quality-of-life.

The old and the oldest-old: Do they have different perspectives on adjustment to aging?

Background: Older adults experience varying challenges in old age. This study aims to explore the indicators of adjustment to aging (AtA) and to examine the potential explanatory mechanisms of a correlational model for AtA for the old and oldest-old adults. Methods: This qualitative study comprised demographics and semistructured interviews. Complete information on 152 older adults aged between 75 years and 102 years (mean ¼ 83.76 years; standard deviation ¼ 6.458). Data was subjected to content analysis. The correlational model of indicators of AtA was analyzed using a multiple correspondence analysis. Results: “Occupation and achievement” was the most mentioned indicator of AtA by the old participants (17.7%), whereas “existential meaning and spirituality” was the most verbalized indicator of AtA for the oldest-old participants (16.9%). AtA was explained by a three-factor model for each age group. For the old participants, the largest factor “occupational and social focus” accounted for 33.6% of total variance, whereas for the oldest-old participants, “spirituality and health focus” represented 33.5% of total variance. Conclusion: The outcomes presented in this paper stressed the varied perspectives concerning AtA, contoured in two different models, and the need of considering these when designing and implementing programs in health care for the old and the oldest-old.

A multi-model approach to evaluate the role of environmental variability and fishing pressure in sardine fisheries

Understanding the fluctuations in population abundance is a central question in fisheries. Sardine fisheries is of great importance to Portugal and is data-rich and of primary concern to fisheries managers. In Portugal, sub-stocks of Sardina pilchardus (sardine) are found in different regions: the Northwest (IXaCN), Southwest (IXaCS) and the South coast (IXaS-Algarve). Each of these sardine sub-stocks is affected differently by a unique set of climate and ocean conditions, mainly during larval development and recruitment, which will consequently affect sardine fisheries in the short term. Taking this hypothesis into consideration we examined the effects of hydrographic (river discharge), sea surface temperature, wind driven phenomena, upwelling, climatic (North Atlantic Oscillation) and fisheries variables (fishing effort) on S. pilchardus catch rates (landings per unit effort, LPUE, as a proxy for sardine biomass). A 20-year time series (1989-2009) was used, for the different subdivisions of the Portuguese coast (sardine sub-stocks). For the purpose of this analysis a multi-model approach was used, applying different time series models for data fitting (Dynamic Factor Analysis, Generalised Least Squares), forecasting (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), as well as Surplus Production stock assessment models. The different models were evaluated, compared and the most important variables explaining changes in LPUE were identified. The type of relationship between catch rates of sardine and environmental variables varied across regional scales due to region-specific recruitment responses. Seasonality plays an important role in sardine variability within the three study regions. In IXaCN autumn (season with minimum spawning activity, larvae and egg concentrations) SST, northerly wind and wind magnitude were negatively related with LPUE. In IXaCS none of the explanatory variables tested was clearly related with LPUE. In IXaS-Algarve (South Portugal) both spring (period when large abundances of larvae are found) northerly wind and wind magnitude were negatively related with LPUE, revealing that environmental effects match with the regional peak in spawning time. Overall, results suggest that management of small, short-lived pelagic species, such as sardine quotas/sustainable yields, should be adapted to a regional scale because of regional environmental variability.

La educación desde los pueblos indígenas de Bolivia. Análisis del proyecto de Nueva Ley de Educación “Avelino Siñani y Elizardo Pérez”, como resistencia frente a la educación para la globalización neoliberal

En este ensayo nos interesa abordar las implicaciones del cambio político y social que se vive en América Latina, particularmente enfocado en Bolivia y sobre la educación y su relación con el desarrollo, a partir del estudio del proyecto de Nueva Ley de Educación “Avelino Siñani-Elizardo Pérez”, presentado para su tramitación al Congreso Nacional por iniciativa del Gobierno de la República y del movimiento indígena-popular. Mediante la metodología del análisis de coyuntura y del análisis estructural temático del discurso, se busca mostrar de qué manera esta reforma construye formas de resistencia cultural y alternativas educativas ante la llamada educación para la globalización neoliberal, propia de un modelo de desarrollo económico impuesto a Bolivia hace más de 20 años.AbstractThis essay aims to find out on the implications of political and social changes currently in process in Latin America focusing in Bolivia’s education and development in the New Act in Education, Avelino Siñani-Elizardo Pérez. The bill of law was submitted to the National Congress by the Government of Bolivia and the Indigenous Popular Movement. Based on current situation analysis and in topic-structure discourse analysis as a methodological approach, it discourse analysis as a methodological approach, it endeavours to show how this reform may build cultural and alternative education as ways of resistance to the socalled education for the neliberal globalization. The latter is featured in the economic development model, imposed to Bolivia 20 years ago.

Non-ambient solid-state characterization of crystalline molecular organic semiconductors

The research project is focused on the investigation of the polymorphism of crystalline molecular material for organic semiconductor applications under non-ambient conditions, and the solid-state characterization and crystal structure determination of the different polymorphic forms. In particular, this research project has tackled the investigation and characterization of the polymorphism of perylene diimides (PDIs) derivatives at high temperatures and pressures, in particular N,N’-dialkyl-3,4,9,10-perylendiimide (PDI-Cn, with n = 5, 6, 7, 8). These molecules are characterized by excellent chemical, thermal, and photostability, high electron affinity, strong absorption in the visible region, low LUMO energies, good air stability, and good charge transport properties, which can be tuned via functionalization; these features make them promising n-type organic semiconductor materials for several applications such as OFETs, OPV cells, laser dye, sensors, bioimaging, etc. The thermal characterization of PDI-Cn was carried out by a combination of differential scanning calorimetry, variable temperature X-ray diffraction, hot-stage microscopy, and in the case of PDI-C5 also variable temperature Raman spectroscopy. Whereas crystal structure determination was carried out by both Single Crystal and Powder X-ray diffraction. Moreover, high-pressure polymorphism via pressure-dependent UV-Vis absorption spectroscopy and high-pressure Single Crystal X-ray diffraction was carried out in this project. A data-driven approach based on a combination of self-organizing maps (SOM) and principal component analysis (PCA) is also reported was used to classify different π-stacking arrangements of PDI derivatives into families of similar crystal packing. Besides the main project, in the framework of structure-property analysis under non-ambient conditions, the structural investigation of the water loss in Pt- and Pd- based vapochromic potassium/lithium salts upon temperature, and the investigation of structure-mechanical property relationships in polymorphs of a thienopyrrolyldione endcapped oligothiophene (C4-NT3N) are reported.

Modeling and Model Predictive Control of an Industrial Hydraulic System

This thesis aims to illustrate the construction of a mathematical model of a hydraulic system, oriented to the design of a model predictive control (MPC) algorithm. The modeling procedure starts with the basic formulation of a piston-servovalve system. The latter is a complex non linear system with some unknown and not measurable effects that constitute a challenging problem for the modeling procedure. The first level of approximation for system parameters is obtained basing on datasheet informations, provided workbench tests and other data from the company. Then, to validate and refine the model, open-loop simulations have been made for data matching with the characteristics obtained from real acquisitions. The final developed set of ODEs captures all the main peculiarities of the system despite some characteristics due to highly varying and unknown hydraulic effects, like the unmodeled resistive elements of the pipes. After an accurate analysis, since the model presents many internal complexities, a simplified version is presented. The latter is used to linearize and discretize correctly the non linear model. Basing on that, a MPC algorithm for reference tracking with linear constraints is implemented. The results obtained show the potential of MPC in this kind of industrial applications, thus a high quality tracking performances while satisfying state and input constraints. The increased robustness and flexibility are evident with respect to the standard control techniques, such as PID controllers, adopted for these systems. The simulations for model validation and the controlled system have been carried out in a Python code environment.

Molecular And Biochemical Characterization Of Caffeine Synthase And Purine Alkaloid Concentration In Guarana Fruit.

Guarana seeds have the highest caffeine concentration among plants accumulating purine alkaloids, but in contrast with coffee and tea, practically nothing is known about caffeine metabolism in this Amazonian plant. In this study, the levels of purine alkaloids in tissues of five guarana cultivars were determined. Theobromine was the main alkaloid that accumulated in leaves, stems, inflorescences and pericarps of fruit, while caffeine accumulated in the seeds and reached levels from 3.3% to 5.8%. In all tissues analysed, the alkaloid concentration, whether theobromine or caffeine, was higher in young/immature tissues, then decreasing with plant development/maturation. Caffeine synthase activity was highest in seeds of immature fruit. A nucleotide sequence (PcCS) was assembled with sequences retrieved from the EST database REALGENE using sequences of caffeine synthase from coffee and tea, whose expression was also highest in seeds from immature fruit. The PcCS has 1083bp and the protein sequence has greater similarity and identity with the caffeine synthase from cocoa (BTS1) and tea (TCS1). A recombinant PcCS allowed functional characterization of the enzyme as a bifunctional CS, able to catalyse the methylation of 7-methylxanthine to theobromine (3,7-dimethylxanthine), and theobromine to caffeine (1,3,7-trimethylxanthine), respectively. Among several substrates tested, PcCS showed higher affinity for theobromine, differing from all other caffeine synthases described so far, which have higher affinity for paraxanthine. When compared to previous knowledge on the protein structure of coffee caffeine synthase, the unique substrate affinity of PcCS is probably explained by the amino acid residues found in the active site of the predicted protein.

Censored Linear Regression Models For Irregularly Observed Longitudinal Data Using The Multivariate-t Distribution.

In acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) studies it is quite common to observe viral load measurements collected irregularly over time. Moreover, these measurements can be subjected to some upper and/or lower detection limits depending on the quantification assays. A complication arises when these continuous repeated measures have a heavy-tailed behavior. For such data structures, we propose a robust structure for a censored linear model based on the multivariate Student's t-distribution. To compensate for the autocorrelation existing among irregularly observed measures, a damped exponential correlation structure is employed. An efficient expectation maximization type algorithm is developed for computing the maximum likelihood estimates, obtaining as a by-product the standard errors of the fixed effects and the log-likelihood function. The proposed algorithm uses closed-form expressions at the E-step that rely on formulas for the mean and variance of a truncated multivariate Student's t-distribution. The methodology is illustrated through an application to an Human Immunodeficiency Virus-AIDS (HIV-AIDS) study and several simulation studies.

Action Of Essential Oils From Brazilian Native And Exotic Medicinal Species On Oral Biofilms.

Essential oils (EO) obtained from twenty medicinal and aromatic plants were evaluated for their antimicrobial activity against the oral pathogens Candida albicans, Fusobacterium nucleatum, Porphyromonas gingivalis, Streptococcus sanguis and Streptococcus mitis. The antimicrobial activity of the EO was evaluates by microdilution method determining Minimal Inhibitory Concentration. Chemical analysis of the oils compounds was performed by Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (CG-MS). The most active EO were also investigated as to their actions on the biolfilm formation. The most of the essential oils (EO) presented moderate to strong antimicrobial activity against the oral pathogens (MIC--Minimal Inhibitory Concentrations values between 0.007 and 1.00 mg/mL). The essential oil from Coriandrum sativum inhibited all oral species with MIC values from 0.007 to 0.250 mg/mL, and MBC/MFC (Minimal Bactericidal/Fungicidal Concentrations) from 0.015 to 0.500 mg/mL. On the other hand the essential oil of C. articulatus inhibited 63.96% of S. sanguis biofilm formation. Through Scanning Eletronic Microscopy (SEM) images no changes were observed in cell morphology, despite a decrease in biofilm formation and changes on biofilm structure. Chemical analysis by Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS) of the C. sativum essential oil revealed major compounds derivatives from alcohols and aldehydes, while Cyperus articulatus and Aloysia gratissima (EOs) presented mono and sesquiterpenes. In conclusion, the crude oil from C. articulatus exhibited the best results of antimicrobial activity e ability to control biofilm formation. The chemical analysis showed the presence of terpenes and monoterpenes such as a-pinene, a-bulnesene and copaene. The reduction of biofilms formation was confirmed from SEM images. The results of this research shows a great potential from the plants studied as new antimicrobial sources.

Prevalência de hipertensão arterial em militares jovens e fatores associados

OBJETIVO: Estimar a prevalência de hipertensão arterial entre militares jovens e fatores associados. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal realizado com amostra de 380 militares do sexo masculino de 19 e 35 anos de idade em uma unidade da Força Aérea Brasileira em São Paulo, SP, entre 2000 e 2001. Os pontos de corte para hipertensão foram: >140mmHg para pressão sistólica e > 90mmHg para pressão diastólica. As variáveis estudadas incluíram fatores de risco e de proteção para hipertensão, como características comportamentais e nutricionais. Para análise das associações, utilizou-se regressão linear generalizada múltipla, com família binomial e ligação logarítmica, obtendo-se razões de prevalências com intervalo de 90% de confiança e seleção hierarquizada das variáveis. RESULTADOS: A prevalência de hipertensão arterial foi de 22% (IC 90%: 21;29). No modelo final da regressão múltipla verificou-se prevalência de hipertensão 68% maior entre os ex-fumantes em relação aos não fumantes (IC 90%: 1,13;2,50). Entre os indivíduos com sobrepeso (índice de massa corporal - IMC de 25 a 29kg/m2) e com obesidade (IMC>29kg/m2) as prevalências foram, respectivamente, 75% (IC 90%: 1,23;2,50) e 178% (IC 90%: 1,82;4,25) maiores do que entre os eutróficos. Entre os que praticavam atividade física regular, comparado aos que não praticavam, a prevalência foi 52% menor (IC 90%: 0,30;0,90). CONCLUSÕES: Ser ex-fumante e ter sobrepeso ou obesidade foram situações de risco para hipertensão, enquanto que a prática regular de atividade física foi fator de proteção em militares jovens.

Influence of memory in deterministic walks in random media: Analytical calculation within a mean-field approximation

Consider a random medium consisting of N points randomly distributed so that there is no correlation among the distances separating them. This is the random link model, which is the high dimensionality limit (mean-field approximation) for the Euclidean random point structure. In the random link model, at discrete time steps, a walker moves to the nearest point, which has not been visited in the last mu steps (memory), producing a deterministic partially self-avoiding walk (the tourist walk). We have analytically obtained the distribution of the number n of points explored by the walker with memory mu=2, as well as the transient and period joint distribution. This result enables us to explain the abrupt change in the exploratory behavior between the cases mu=1 (memoryless walker, driven by extreme value statistics) and mu=2 (walker with memory, driven by combinatorial statistics). In the mu=1 case, the mean newly visited points in the thermodynamic limit (N >> 1) is just < n >=e=2.72... while in the mu=2 case, the mean number < n > of visited points grows proportionally to N(1/2). Also, this result allows us to establish an equivalence between the random link model with mu=2 and random map (uncorrelated back and forth distances) with mu=0 and the abrupt change between the probabilities for null transient time and subsequent ones.

A PHASE TRANSITION FOR COMPETITION INTERFACES

We study the competition interface between two growing clusters in a growth model associated to last-passage percolation. When the initial unoccupied set is approximately a cone, we show that this interface has an asymptotic direction with probability 1. The behavior of this direction depends on the angle theta of the cone: for theta >= 180 degrees, the direction is deterministic, while for theta < 180 degrees, it is random, and its distribution can be given explicitly in certain cases. We also obtain partial results on the fluctuations of the interface around its asymptotic direction. The evolution of the competition interface in the growth model can be mapped onto the path of a second-class particle in the totally asymmetric simple exclusion process; from the existence of the limiting direction for the interface, we obtain a new and rather natural proof of the strong law of large numbers (with perhaps a random limit) for the position of the second-class particle at large times.