Applications of random set theory in econometrics

In recent years, the econometrics literature has shown a growing interest in the study of partially identified models, in which the object of economic and statistical interest is a set rather than a point. The characterization of this set and the development of consistent estimators and inference procedures for it with desirable properties are the main goals of partial identification analysis. This review introduces the fundamental tools of the theory of random sets, which brings together elements of topology, convex geometry, and probability theory to develop a coherent mathematical framework to analyze random elements whose realizations are sets. It then elucidates how these tools have been fruitfully applied in econometrics to reach the goals of partial identification analysis.

Influence of intervertebral disc fenestration at the herniation site in association with hemilaminectomy on recurrence in chondrodystrophic dogs with thoracolumbar disc disease: a prospective MRI study

OBJECTIVE To describe the influence of fenestration at the disc herniation site on recurrence in thoracolumbar disc disease of chondrodystrophoid dogs. STUDY DESIGN Prospective clinical study. ANIMALS Chondrodystrophic dogs (n=19). METHODS Dogs were divided into 2 groups: group 1 (9 dogs) had thoracolumbar disc extrusion (Hansen type I) treated by hemilaminectomy and concomitant fenestration of the affected intervertebral disc and group 2 (10 dogs) had hemilaminectomy without fenestration. All dogs had 3 magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examinations: preoperatively, immediately postoperatively to assess removal of herniated disc material, and again 6 weeks after surgery. RESULTS There were 13 male and 6 female dogs; mean age, 7.1 years. Thoracolumbar disc herniation was confirmed with MRI. Immediate post surgical MRI revealed that the herniated disc removal was complete in all but 1 dog and that fenestration did not lead to complete removal of nucleus pulposus within the intervertebral disc space. On the 3rd MRI examination, none of the group 1 dogs had further disc material herniation at the fenestrated site. Six of the 10 group 2 dogs had a recurrence of herniation leading to clinical signs in 3 dogs (pain in 2 dogs, paresis in 1 dog). CONCLUSION In thoracolumbar disc herniation, fenestration of the affected intervertebral disc space prevents further extrusion of disc material. CLINICAL RELEVANCE Fenestration reduces the risk of early recurrence of disc herniation and associated postoperative complications.

Treatment of lower extremity telangiectasias in women by foam sclerotherapy vs. Nd:YAG laser: a prospective, comparative, randomized, open-label trial.

BACKGROUND Telangiectasias of the lower extremities are very common. There are no blinded, randomized, controlled clinical trials comparing laser modalities with the gold standard sclerotherapy, while the few available studies encompass small patients cohorts. OBJECTIVE This prospective, randomized, open-label trial compares the efficacy of sclerotherapy with polidocanol vs. long-pulsed neodymium-doped yttrium aluminium garnet (Nd:YAG) laser in the treatment of leg telangiectasias. PATIENTS AND METHODS Fifty-six female patients with primary leg telangiectasias and reticular veins (C1A or S Ep AS 1 PN ) were included in the study. One leg was randomly assigned to get treatment with the multiple synchronized long-pulsed Nd:YAG laser, while the other received foam sclerotherapy with polidocanol 0.5%. The patients were treated in two sessions at intervals of 6 weeks. The patients were evaluated by the handling physician after 6 weeks and 6 months. Two investigators assessed blindly at the end of the study the photographs for clearing of the vessels using a six-point scale from 1 (no change) to 6 (100% cleared). Patients reported about pain sensation and outcome satisfaction. RESULTS According to the handling dermatologist, at the last follow-up, there was an improvement of 30-40% with a median of 3 (IQR 2) and a good improvement of 50-70% with a median of 4 (IQR 2) after laser treatment and sclerotherapy respectively. In contrast, according to the blinded investigators, there was a median of 5 (IQR 1) with a very good improvement of >70% after both therapies. Improvement was achieved more quickly by sclerotherapy, although at the last follow-up visit there was no difference in clearance between the two groups as assessed by the blinded experts (P-value 0.84). The degree of patient's satisfaction was very good and similar with both therapeutic approaches. There was a significant difference (P-value 0.003) regarding pain perception between the types of therapy. Laser was felt more painful than sclerotherapy. CONCLUSION Telangiectasias of the lower extremities can be successfully treated with either synchronized long-pulsed Nd:YAG laser or sclerotherapy. The 1064-nm long-pulsed Nd:YAG laser is associated with more pain and is suitable especially in case of needle phobia, allergy to sclerosants and in presence of small veins with telangiectatic matting, while sclerotherapy can also treat the feeder veins.

High colonization rates of extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Escherichia coli in Swiss Travellers to South Asia- a prospective observational multicentre cohort study looking at epidemiology, microbiology and risk factors.

BACKGROUND International travel contributes to the worldwide spread of multidrug resistant Gram-negative bacteria. Rates of travel-related faecal colonization with extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Enterobacteriaceae vary for different destinations. Especially travellers returning from the Indian subcontinent show high colonization rates. So far, nothing is known about region-specific risk factors for becoming colonized. METHODS An observational prospective multicentre cohort study investigated travellers to South Asia. Before and after travelling, rectal swabs were screened for third-generation cephalosporin- and carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae. Participants completed questionnaires to identify risk factors for becoming colonized. Covariates were assessed univariately, followed by a multivariate regression. RESULTS Hundred and seventy persons were enrolled, the largest data set on travellers to the Indian subcontinent so far. The acquired colonization rate with ESBL-producing Escherichia coli overall was 69.4% (95% CI 62.1-75.9%), being highest in travellers returning from India (86.8%; 95% CI 78.5-95.0%) and lowest in travellers returning from Sri Lanka (34.7%; 95% CI 22.9-48.7%). Associated risk factors were travel destination, length of stay, visiting friends and relatives, and eating ice cream and pastry. CONCLUSIONS High colonization rates with ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae were found in travellers returning from South Asia. Though risk factors were identified, a more common source, i.e. environmental, appears to better explain the high colonization rates.

Euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a prospective study.

The objective of this study is to determine if quality of care, symptoms of depression, disease characteristics and quality of life of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) are related to requesting euthanasia or physician-assisted suicide (EAS) and dying due to EAS. Therefore, 102 ALS patients filled out structured questionnaires every 3 months until death and the results were correlated with EAS. Thirty-one percent of the patients requested EAS, 69 % of whom eventually died as a result of EAS (22 % of all patients). Ten percent died during continuous deep sedation; only one of them had explicitly requested death to be hastened. Of the patients who requested EAS, 86 % considered the health care to be good or excellent, 16 % felt depressed, 45 % experienced loss of dignity and 42 % feared choking. These percentages do not differ from the number of patients who did not explicitly request EAS. The frequency of consultations of professional caregivers and availability of appliances was similar in both groups. Our findings do not support continuous deep sedation being used as a substitute for EAS. In this prospective study, no evidence was found for a relation between EAS and the quality and quantity of care received, quality of life and symptoms of depression in patients with ALS. Our study does not support the notion that unmet palliative care needs are related to EAS.

Incidence Rate of Kaposi Sarcoma in HIV-Infected Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy in Southern Africa: A Prospective Multicohort Study.

BACKGROUND The risk of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) among HIV-infected persons on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not well defined in resource-limited settings. We studied KS incidence rates and associated risk factors in children and adults on ART in Southern Africa. METHODS We included patient data of 6 ART programs in Botswana, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. We estimated KS incidence rates in patients on ART measuring time from 30 days after ART initiation to KS diagnosis, last follow-up visit, or death. We assessed risk factors (age, sex, calendar year, WHO stage, tuberculosis, and CD4 counts) using Cox models. FINDINGS We analyzed data from 173,245 patients (61% female, 8% children aged <16 years) who started ART between 2004 and 2010. Five hundred and sixty-four incident cases were diagnosed during 343,927 person-years (pys). The overall KS incidence rate was 164/100,000 pys [95% confidence interval (CI): 151 to 178]. The incidence rate was highest 30-90 days after ART initiation (413/100,000 pys; 95% CI: 342 to 497) and declined thereafter [86/100,000 pys (95% CI: 71 to 105), >2 years after ART initiation]. Male sex [adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 1.34; 95% CI: 1.12 to 1.61], low current CD4 counts (≥500 versus <50 cells/μL, adjusted HR: 0.36; 95% CI: 0.23 to 0.55), and age (5-9 years versus 30-39 years, adjusted HR: 0.20; 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.79) were relevant risk factors for developing KS. INTERPRETATION Despite ART, KS risk in HIV-infected persons in Southern Africa remains high. Early HIV testing and maintaining high CD4 counts is needed to further reduce KS-related morbidity and mortality.

Alleviation of chronic venous leg ulcers with a hand-held dielectric barrier discharge plasma generator (PlasmaDerm(®) VU-2010): results of a monocentric, two-armed, open, prospective, randomized and controlled trial (NCT01415622).

BACKGROUND Cold atmospheric plasma (CAP, i.e. ionized air) is an innovating promising tool in reducing bacteria. OBJECTIVE We conducted the first clinical trial with the novel PlasmaDerm(®) VU-2010 device to assess safety and, as secondary endpoints, efficacy and applicability of 45 s/cm(2) cold atmospheric plasma as add-on therapy against chronic venous leg ulcers. METHODS From April 2011 to April 2012, 14 patients were randomized to receive standardized modern wound care (n = 7) or plasma in addition to standard care (n = 7) 3× per week for 8 weeks. The ulcer size was determined weekly (Visitrak(®) , photodocumentation). Bacterial load (bacterial swabs, contact agar plates) and pain during and between treatments (visual analogue scales) were assessed. Patients and doctors rated the applicability of plasma (questionnaires). RESULTS The plasma treatment was safe with 2 SAEs and 77 AEs approximately equally distributed among both groups (P = 0.77 and P = 1.0, Fisher's exact test). Two AEs probably related to plasma. Plasma treatment resulted in a significant reduction in lesional bacterial load (P = 0.04, Wilcoxon signed-rank test). A more than 50% ulcer size reduction was noted in 5/7 and 4/7 patients in the standard and plasma groups, respectively, and a greater size reduction occurred in the plasma group (plasma -5.3 cm(2) , standard: -3.4 cm(2) ) (non-significant, P = 0.42, log-rank test). The only ulcer that closed after 7 weeks received plasma. Patients in the plasma group quoted less pain compared to the control group. The plasma applicability was not rated inferior to standard wound care (P = 0.94, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test). Physicians would recommend (P = 0.06, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test) or repeat (P = 0.08, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test) plasma treatment by trend. CONCLUSION Cold atmospheric plasma displays favourable antibacterial effects. We demonstrated that plasma treatment with the PlasmaDerm(®) VU-2010 device is safe and effective in patients with chronic venous leg ulcers. Thus, larger controlled trials and the development of devices with larger application surfaces are warranted.

Psychometric and biohormonal indices of dental anxiety in children. A prospective cohort study.

The stress of dental treatment often elicits negative emotions in children, expressed as dental fear or anxiety. Highly anxious children obstruct treatment and avoid therapy, further amplifying oral health problems. The aim of this study was to examine the neuroendocrine and autonomic nervous system responses to dental treatment and their possible interactions and associations with psychometric indices of anxiety, caries, previous dental experience, anesthesia, age and gender in school children. Upon informed consent, saliva was obtained from 97 children (59% males, mean age ±  SD: 89.73 ± 15 months) in the Clinic of pediatric dentistry before treatment, immediately post-treatment and at the recall visit to determine cortisol and salivary alpha-amylase (sAA) levels. Dental and general anxiety was assessed through specific questionnaires completed by the children. Compared to pre-treatment, cortisol levels were increased following treatment, while sAA levels were higher at the recall. Pre- and post-treatment cortisol and sAA responses were positively correlated. Dental and general anxiety questionnaire scores were also significantly correlated with each other. The integrated autonomic and neuroendocrine responses prior to treatment were correlated with state anxiety and those following treatment with dental anxiety. However, univariable and multivariable linear regression analysis associated post-treatment cortisol, but not sAA, levels with dental anxiety. No associations of cortisol or sAA responses with caries, age, gender, previous dental experience or anesthesia were detected. These data provide some evidence that both sAA and cortisol levels are altered in children in anticipation or during dental treatment, but only cortisol levels are associated to dental anxiety.

What constitutes vulnerable self-esteem? Comparing the prospective effects of low, unstable, and contingent self-esteem on depressive symptoms

A growing body of longitudinal studies suggests that low self-esteem is a risk factor for depression. However, it is unclear whether other characteristics of self-esteem, besides its level, explain incremental or even greater variance in subsequent depression. We examined the prospective effects of self-esteem level, instability (i.e., the degree of variability in self-esteem across short periods), and contingency (i.e., the degree to which self-esteem fluctuates in response to self-relevant events) on depressive symptoms in 1 overarching model, using data from 2 longitudinal studies. In Study 1, 372 adults were assessed at 2 waves over 6 months, including 40 daily diary assessments at Wave 1. In Study 2, 235 young adults were assessed at 2 waves over 6 weeks, including about 6 daily diary assessments at each wave. Self-esteem contingency was measured by self-report and by a statistical index based on the diary data (capturing event-related fluctuations in self-esteem). In both studies self-esteem level, but not self-esteem contingency, predicted subsequent depressive symptoms. Self-esteem instability predicted subsequent depressive symptoms in Study 2 only, with a smaller effect size than self-esteem level. Also, level, instability, and contingency of self-esteem did not interact in the prediction of depressive symptoms. Moreover, the effect of self-esteem level held when controlling for neuroticism and for all other Big Five personality traits. Thus, the findings provide converging evidence for a vulnerability effect of self-esteem level, tentative evidence for a smaller vulnerability effect of self-esteem instability, and no evidence for a vulnerability effect of self-esteem contingency.

Prevalence and predictors of fatigue in glioblastoma: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND The main goal of this study was to assess frequency, clinical correlates, and independent predictors of fatigue in a homogeneous cohort of well-defined glioblastoma patients at baseline prior to combined radio-chemotherapy. METHODS We prospectively included 65 glioblastoma patients at postsurgical baseline and assessed fatigue, sleepiness, mean bedtimes, mood disturbances, and clinical characteristics such as clinical performance status, presenting symptomatology, details on neurosurgical procedure, and tumor location and diameter as well as pharmacological treatment including antiepileptic drugs, antidepressants, and use of corticosteroids. Data on fatigue and sleepiness were measured with the Fatigue Severity Scale and the Epworth Sleepiness Scale, respectively, and compared with 130 age- and sex-matched healthy controls. RESULTS We observed a significant correlation between fatigue and sleepiness scores in both patients (r = 0.26; P = .04) and controls (r = 0.36; P < .001). Only fatigue appeared to be more common in glioblastoma patients than in healthy controls (48% vs 11%; P < .001) but not the frequency of sleepiness (22% vs 19%; P = .43). Female sex was associated with increased fatigue frequency among glioblastoma patients but not among control participants. Multiple linear regression analyses identified depression, left-sided tumor location, and female sex as strongest associates of baseline fatigue severity. CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate that glioblastoma patients are frequently affected by fatigue at baseline, suggesting that factors other than those related to radio- or chemotherapy have significant impact, particularly depression and tumor localization.

IMRT credentialing for prospective trials using institutional virtual phantoms: results of a joint European Organization for the Research and Treatment of Cancer and Radiological Physics Center project.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) credentialing for a EORTC study was performed using an anthropomorphic head phantom from the Radiological Physics Center (RPC; RPC(PH)). Institutions were retrospectively requested to irradiate their institutional phantom (INST(PH)) using the same treatment plan in the framework of a Virtual Phantom Project (VPP) for IMRT credentialing. MATERIALS AND METHODS CT data set of the institutional phantom and measured 2D dose matrices were requested from centers and sent to a dedicated secure EORTC uploader. Data from the RPC(PH) and INST(PH) were thereafter centrally analyzed and inter-compared by the QA team using commercially available software (RIT; ver.5.2; Colorado Springs, USA). RESULTS Eighteen institutions participated to the VPP. The measurements of 6 (33%) institutions could not be analyzed centrally. All other centers passed both the VPP and the RPC ±7%/4 mm credentialing criteria. At the 5%/5 mm gamma criteria (90% of pixels passing), 11(92%) as compared to 12 (100%) centers pass the credentialing process with RPC(PH) and INST(PH) (p = 0.29), respectively. The corresponding pass rate for the 3%/3 mm gamma criteria (90% of pixels passing) was 2 (17%) and 9 (75%; p = 0.01), respectively. CONCLUSIONS IMRT dosimetry gamma evaluations in a single plane for a H&N prospective trial using the INST(PH) measurements showed agreement at the gamma index criteria of ±5%/5 mm (90% of pixels passing) for a small number of VPP measurements. Using more stringent, criteria, the RPC(PH) and INST(PH) comparison showed disagreement. More data is warranted and urgently required within the framework of prospective studies.

Multimodal treatment for high-risk prostate cancer with high-dose intensity-modulated radiation therapy preceded or not by radical prostatectomy, concurrent intensified-dose docetaxel and long-term androgen deprivation therapy: results of a prospective phase II trial.

BACKGROUND The optimal management of high-risk prostate cancer remains uncertain. In this study we assessed the safety and efficacy of a novel multimodal treatment paradigm for high-risk prostate cancer. METHODS This was a prospective phase II trial including 35 patients with newly diagnosed high-risk localized or locally advanced prostate cancer treated with high-dose intensity-modulated radiation therapy preceded or not by radical prostatectomy, concurrent intensified-dose docetaxel-based chemotherapy and long-term androgen deprivation therapy. Primary endpoint was acute and late toxicity evaluated with the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 3.0. Secondary endpoint was biochemical and clinical recurrence-free survival explored with the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS Acute gastro-intestinal and genito-urinary toxicity was grade 2 in 23% and 20% of patients, and grade 3 in 9% and 3% of patients, respectively. Acute blood/bone marrow toxicity was grade 2 in 20% of patients. No acute grade ≥ 4 toxicity was observed. Late gastro-intestinal and genito-urinary toxicity was grade 2 in 9% of patients each. No late grade ≥ 3 toxicity was observed. Median follow-up was 63 months (interquartile range 31-79). Actuarial 5-year biochemical and clinical recurrence-free survival rate was 55% (95% confidence interval, 35-75%) and 70% (95% confidence interval, 52-88%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS In our phase II trial testing a novel multimodal treatment paradigm for high-risk prostate cancer, toxicity was acceptably low and mid-term oncological outcome was good. This treatment paradigm, thus, may warrant further evaluation in phase III randomized trials.

Clinical and radiographic outcomes of a combined resective and regenerative approach in the treatment of peri-implantitis: a prospective case series

AIM To assess the clinical and radiographic outcomes applying a combined resective and regenerative approach in the treatment of peri-implantitis. MATERIALS AND METHODS Subjects with implants diagnosed with peri-implantitis (i.e., pocket probing depth (PPD) ≥5 mm with concomitant bleeding on probing (BoP) and ≥2 mm of marginal bone loss or exposure of ≥1 implant thread) were treated by means of a combined approach including the application of a deproteinized bovine bone mineral and a collagen membrane in the intrabony and implantoplasty in the suprabony component of the peri-implant lesion, respectively. The soft tissues were apically repositioned allowing for a non-submerged healing. Clinical and radiographic parameters were evaluated at baseline and 12 months after treatment. RESULTS Eleven subjects with 11 implants were treated and completed the 12-month follow-up. No implant was lost yielding a 100% survival rate. At baseline, the mean PPD and mean clinical attachment level (CAL) were 8.1 ± 1.8 mm and 9.7 ± 2.5 mm, respectively. After 1 year, a mean PPD of 4.0 ± 1.3 mm and a mean CAL of 6.7 ± 2.5 mm were assessed. The differences between the baseline and the follow-up examinations were statistically significant (P = 0.001). The mucosal recession increased from 1.7 ± 1.5 at baseline to 3.0 ± 1.8 mm at the 12-month follow-up (P = 0.003). The mean% of sites with BoP+ around the selected implants decreased from 19.7 ± 40.1 at baseline to 6.1 ± 24.0 after 12 months (P = 0.032). The radiographic marginal bone level decreased from 8.0 ± 3.7 mm at baseline to 5.2 ± 2.2 mm at the 12-month follow-up (P = 0.000001). The radiographic fill of the intrabony component of the defect amounted to 93.3 ± 13.0%. CONCLUSION Within the limits of this study, a combined regenerative and resective approach for the treatment of peri-implant defects yielded positive outcomes in terms of PPD reduction and radiographic defect fill after 12 months.

Impact of biatrial defragmentation in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: Results from a randomized prospective study

Background Single procedure success rates of pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) are still unsatisfactory. In patients with persistent atrial fibrillation (AF), ablation of complex fractionated atrial electrograms (CFAEs) after PVI results in improved outcomes. Objective We aimed to investigate if PAF-patients with intraprocedurally sustained AF after PVI might benefit from additional CFAE ablation. Methods A total of 1134 consecutive patients underwent a first catheter ablation procedure of PAF between June 2008 and December 2012. In most patients, AF was either not inducible or terminated during PVI. In 68 patients (6%), AF sustained after successful PVI. These patients were randomized to either cardioversion (PVI-alone group; n = 33) or additional CFAE ablation (PVI+CFAE group; n = 35) and followed up every 1–3 months and serial Holter recordings were also obtained. The primary end point was the recurrence of AF/atrial tachycardia (AT) after a blanking period of 3 months. Results Procedure duration (127 ± 6 minutes vs 174 ± 10 minutes), radiofrequency application time (44 ± 3 minutes vs 74 ± 5 minutes), and fluoroscopy time (26 ± 2 minutes vs 41 ± 3 minutes) were longer in the PVI+CFAE group (all P < .001). In 30 of 35 patients (86%) in the PVI+CFAE group, ablation terminated AF. There was no significant group difference with respect to freedom from AF/AT (22 of 33 [67%] vs 22 of 35 [63%]; P = .66). Subsequently, 10 of 11 patients in the PVI-alone group (91%) and 11 of 13 patients in PVI+CFAE group (85%) underwent repeat ablation (P = 1.00). Overall, 29 of 33 [88%] vs 30 of 35 [86%] patients (P = 1.00) were free from AF/AT after 1.4 ± 0.1 vs 1.4 ± 0.2 (P = .87) procedures. Conclusion Patients with sustained AF after PVI in a PAF cohort are rare. Regarding AF/AT recurrence, these patients did not benefit from further CFAE ablation compared to PVI alone, but are exposed to longer procedure duration, fluoroscopy time, and radiofrequency application time.