Transfer function-noise modeling and spatial interpolation to evaluate the risk of extreme (shallow) water-table levels in the Brazilian Cerrados

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Fragmentos da construção histórica do pensamento neo-empirista

O presente trabalho procura identificar as idéias principais na construção histórica do pensamento neo-empirista a partir da visão mecânica do mundo e do método hipotético-dedutivo de Descartes. O método indutivo moderno é apresentado por Bacon e os empiristas ingleses colaboram na questão do pensamento “a posteriori”. No século XIX surge o positivismo que exclui a metafísica e considera a explicação dos fatos apenas como relações de sucessão e similidade. É nesse âmbito que se constroem as bases do método experimental moderno. No início do século XX, se desenvolve a ciência neoempirista cujas principais proposições são (1) a idéia da verificabilidade como forma de conferir a veracidade das teorias a partir da indução e das probabilidades e (2) o crescimento contínuo e acumulativo do conhecimento científico. Popper apresenta a impossibilidade de se obter grandes teorias oriundas da indução e sugere a substituição da indução pela dedução e da verificabilidade pela falseabilidade. Kuhn afirma que o conhecimento científico depende de paradigmas convencionais e Lakatos explica que a ciência não é uma sucessão temporal de períodos normais e revoluções, e sim sua justaposição.

Planos de amostragem seqüenciais para Orthezia praelonga Douglas (Hemiptera: Sternorrhyncha, Ortheziidae) na cultura de citros

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Mortality Risk in Insects

Understanding how and why insect numbers fluctuate through time and space has been a central theme in ecological research for more than a century. Life tables have been used to understand temporal and spatial patterns in insect numbers. In this study, we estimated cause-of-death probabilities for phytophagous insects using multiple decrement life tables and the irreplaceable mortality analytic technique. Multiple decrement life tables were created from 73 insect life tables published from 1954 to 2004. Irreplaceable mortality (the portion of mortality that cannot be replaced by another cause) from pathogens, predators, and parasitoids was 8.6 +/- 7.2, 7.8 +/- 4.9, and 6.2 +/- 1.6%, respectively. In contrast, the mean irreplaceable mortality from all non-natural enemy mortality factors (mortality from factors other than natural enemies) was 35.1 +/- 4.4%. Irreplaceable mortality from natural enemies was significantly lower compared with non-natural enemy factors. Our results may partially explain cases of unsuccessful efficacy in classical biological control, after successful establishment, by showing low irreplaceable mortality for natural enemies, including 5.2 +/- 1.6% for introduced natural enemies. We suggest that the environment (i.e., the degree of environmental stability) influences the magnitude of the irreplaceable mortality from natural enemies. Our results lead to several testable hypotheses and emphasize that it is not possible to estimate the effect of any mortality factor without considering its interaction with competing mortality factors, which has far-reaching consequences for population biology and applied ecology.

O Evangelho segundo a Pastoral da Criança :por uma pedagogia da sobrevivência

This work aims to analyze social and educational actions at Pastoral da Criança, using education as a survival tool. This was done at Parque dos Coqueiros, a neighborhood in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte. The methodology for data collection was composed of comprehensive interview (Jean Kaufmann), participant observation (Robert Bogdan) and documental analysis (Le Goff); all os which bring reflections related to concepts such as strategies, tatics and know how (Michel de Certeau), configuration (Nobert Elias), and control technology (Michel de Foucault), care ethics (Leonardo Boff) and etno-theories (Natália Ramos). Pastoral da Criança is a social action organism that belongs to the National Conference of Bishops of Brazil, originated at Florestópolis, Londrina (Paraná), in the year of 1983. These actions have been an expression of a new logic of actions of the Catholic Church. It values the participation of laymen in the activities of the Pastoral. Thus, the parish is seen as a nucleus that irradiates the Church s Social Doctrine. At Rio Grande do Norte this institution has guided poverty stricken families on issues related to children s health as well as working with laymen for volunteer work. This is considered devotion, that is firmed by an individual and group mystique. The social and educational actions are done in three axes: 1) Monthly home visits, where there is mother-child support; 2) Life Celebration Day, where they weigh children and promote nutritional surveillance; 3) Meeting for Evaluation and Reflection, that aims to articulate community leaders to think about problems attached to the social actions they realize. This action tripod , as it is called by the Pastoral Agents are the types of actions that fundament survival education for poor children ranging from 0 to 6 years old. The families learn to deal with prevention, the essential, the alternative and probabilities of survival tactics due to exclusion matters or even social extermination. The Pastoral da Criança aims to recover childhood emotions in poverty stricken areas. It also has influence in the diminishing of malnutrition and mother and child mortality. This education for survival is the base on the art of teaching and learning of poverty stricken children. It is a social educational action, non assistencialist, but considered a shy action in order to promote mobilization of the communities that are accompanied for the emancipation and change of social conditions

Evaluation of an average numerator relationship matrix model and a Bayesian hierarchical model for growth traits in Nellore cattle with uncertain paternity

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Probabilidades imprecisas: intervalar, fuzzy e fuzzy intuicionista

The idea of considering imprecision in probabilities is old, beginning with the Booles George work, who in 1854 wanted to reconcile the classical logic, which allows the modeling of complete ignorance, with probabilities. In 1921, John Maynard Keynes in his book made explicit use of intervals to represent the imprecision in probabilities. But only from the work ofWalley in 1991 that were established principles that should be respected by a probability theory that deals with inaccuracies. With the emergence of the theory of fuzzy sets by Lotfi Zadeh in 1965, there is another way of dealing with uncertainty and imprecision of concepts. Quickly, they began to propose several ways to consider the ideas of Zadeh in probabilities, to deal with inaccuracies, either in the events associated with the probabilities or in the values of probabilities. In particular, James Buckley, from 2003 begins to develop a probability theory in which the fuzzy values of the probabilities are fuzzy numbers. This fuzzy probability, follows analogous principles to Walley imprecise probabilities. On the other hand, the uses of real numbers between 0 and 1 as truth degrees, as originally proposed by Zadeh, has the drawback to use very precise values for dealing with uncertainties (as one can distinguish a fairly element satisfies a property with a 0.423 level of something that meets with grade 0.424?). This motivated the development of several extensions of fuzzy set theory which includes some kind of inaccuracy. This work consider the Krassimir Atanassov extension proposed in 1983, which add an extra degree of uncertainty to model the moment of hesitation to assign the membership degree, and therefore a value indicate the degree to which the object belongs to the set while the other, the degree to which it not belongs to the set. In the Zadeh fuzzy set theory, this non membership degree is, by default, the complement of the membership degree. Thus, in this approach the non-membership degree is somehow independent of the membership degree, and this difference between the non-membership degree and the complement of the membership degree reveals the hesitation at the moment to assign a membership degree. This new extension today is called of Atanassov s intuitionistic fuzzy sets theory. It is worth noting that the term intuitionistic here has no relation to the term intuitionistic as known in the context of intuitionistic logic. In this work, will be developed two proposals for interval probability: the restricted interval probability and the unrestricted interval probability, are also introduced two notions of fuzzy probability: the constrained fuzzy probability and the unconstrained fuzzy probability and will eventually be introduced two notions of intuitionistic fuzzy probability: the restricted intuitionistic fuzzy probability and the unrestricted intuitionistic fuzzy probability

Smith-Lemli-Opitz syndrome: clinical and biochemical findings in Brazilian patients

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

An analysis of the region of the Phocaea dynamical family

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Multi-Agent Simulation of Urban Social Dynamics for Spatial Load Forecasting

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Inserção de graduados em fonoaudiologia de uma universidade pública em programas de pós-graduação

OBJETIVO: caracterizar a inserção de egressos do Curso de Fonoaudiologia da Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) - Marília, em Programas de Pós-Graduação (PPG) Stricto Sensu brasileiros. MÉTODO: foram utilizadas listas de graduados e Curriculum Vitae do egresso e do orientador. RESULTADOS: dos 537 formados, 16,57% cursaram/estavam cursando PPG e destes, 98,88% em mestrado e 37,08% também em doutorado. Na grande área de conhecimento, 50% dos egressos de mestrado vincularam-se predominantemente a programas em Ciências da Saúde, 31,80% em Ciências Humanas e 13,64% em Linguística, Letras e Artes. No doutorado, 33, 33% em Ciências Humanas, 30,30% em Ciências da Saúde e em Linguística, Letras e Artes. Quanto à área de conhecimento, predominou a vinculação, no mestrado, de 30,68% em Fonoaudiologia, 28,41% em Educação, 13,64% em Linguística e 9,09% em Medicina I; e, no doutorado, de 33,33% em Educação, 30,30% em Linguística e 9,09% em Fonoaudiologia; 55,68% dissertações e 51,52% teses focalizaram a linguagem. A UNESP predominou com 39,77% no mestrado e 48,48% no doutorado. Predominou a vinculação a Programas com conceito 4 para 52,27% dos egressos do mestrado e 45,45% do doutorado. Quando constou a informação (55,68%), todos receberam fomento. O Teste de Razão de Verossimilhança não indicou diferenças significativas dos percentuais obtidos entre o mestrado e o doutorado. CONCLUSÃO: os resultados superaram os apresentados para o mesmo Estado, mostraram a característica interdisciplinar da Ciência Fonoaudiológica e o predomínio de temática em linguagem.

Misclassification probability as obese or lean in hypercaloric and normocaloric diet

The aim of the present study was to determine the classification error probabilities, as lean or obese, in hypercaloric diet-induced obesity, which depends on the variable used to characterize animal obesity. In addition, the misclassification probabilities in animals submitted to normocaloric diet were also evaluated. Male Wistar rats were randomly distributed into two groups: normal diet (ND; n=3 1; 3,5 Kcal/g) and hypercaloric diet (HD; n=31; 4,6 Kcal/g). The ND group received commercial Labina rat feed and HD animals a cycle of five hypercaloric diets for a 14-week period. The variables analysed were body weight, body composition, body weight to length ratio, Lee index, body mass index and misclassification probability A 5% significance level was used. The hypercaloric pellet-diet cycle promoted increase of body weight, carcass fat, body weight to length ratio and Lee index. The total misclassification probabilities ranged from 19.21 % to 40.91 %. In Conclusion, the results of this experiment show that rnisclassification probabilities Occur when dietary manipulation is used to promote obesity in animals. This misjudgement ranges from 19.49% to 40.52% in hypercaloric diet and 18.94% to 41.30% in normocaloric diet.

Classic and molecular cytogenetic analyses reveal chromosomal gains and losses correlated with survival in head and neck cancer patients

Purpose: Genetic biomarkers of head and neck tumors could be useful for distinguishing among patients with similar clinical and histopathologic characteristics but having differential probabilities of survival. The purpose of this study was to investigate chromosomal alterations in head and neck carcinomas and to correlate the results with clinical and epidentiologic variables.Experimental Design: Cytogenetic analysis of short-term cultures from 64 primary untreated head and neck squamous cell carcinomas was used to determine the overall pattern of chromosome aberrations. A representative subset of tumors was analyzed in detail by spectral karyotyping and/or confirmatory fluorescence in situ hybridization analysis.Results: Recurrent losses of chromosomes Y (26 cases) and 19 (14 cases), and gains of chromosomes 22 (23 cases), 8 and 20 (11 cases each) were observed. The most frequent structural aberration was del(22)(q13.1) followed by rearrangements involving 6q and 12p. The presence of specific cytogenetic aberrations was found to correlate significantly with an unfavorable outcome. There was a significant association between survival and gains in chromosomes 10 (P = 0.008) and 20 (P = 0.002) and losses of chromosomes 15 (P = 0.005) and 22 (P = 0.021). Univariate analysis indicated that acquisition of monosomy 17 was a significant (P = 0.0012) factor for patients with a previous family history of cancer.Conclusions: the significant associations found in this study emphasize that alterations of distinct regions of the genome may be genetic biomarkers for a poor prognosis. Losses of chromosomes 17 and 22 can be associated with a family history of cancer.

Prediction and probability of neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia using multiple ultrasound parameters

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Phylogenetic relationships within the speciose family Characidae (Teleostei: Ostariophysi: Characiformes) based on multilocus analysis and extensive ingroup sampling

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)