Voting Power and Probability

Voting power is commonly measured using a probability. But what kind of probability is this? Is it a degree of belief or an objective chance or some other sort of probability? The aim of this paper is to answer this question. The answer depends on the use to which a measure of voting power is put. Some objectivist interpretations of probabilities are appropriate when we employ such a measure for descriptive purposes. By contrast, when voting power is used to normatively assess voting rules, the probabilities are best understood as classical probabilities, which count possibilities. This is so because, from a normative stance, voting power is most plausibly taken to concern rights and thus possibilities. The classical interpretation also underwrites the use of the Bernoulli model upon which the Penrose/Banzhaf measure is based.

Luminescence and Energy Transfer of [Ru(bpy) 3 ] 2+ , [Cr(ox) 3 ] 3- , and [Os(bpy) 3 ] 2+ in Three-Dimensional Oxalato-Networks

Luminescence and energy transfer in [Zn1-xRux(bpy)3][NaAl1-yCry(ox)3] (x ≈ 0.01, y = 0.006 − 0.22; bpy = 2,2‘-bipyridine, ox = C2O42-) and [Zn1-x-yRuxOsy(bpy)3][NaAl(ox)3] (x ≈ 0.01, y = 0.012) are presented and discussed. Surprisingly, the luminescence of the isolated luminophores [Ru(bpy)3]2+ and [Os(bpy)3]2+ in [Zn(bpy)3][NaAl(ox)3] is hardly quenched at room temperature. Steady-state luminescence spectra and decay curves show that energy transfer occurs between [Ru(bpy)3]2+ and [Cr(ox)3]3- and between [Ru(bpy)3]2+ and [Os(bpy)3]2+ in [Zn1-xRux(bpy)3][NaAl1-yCry(ox)3] and [Zn1-x-yRuxOsy(bpy)3] [NaAl(ox)3], respectively. For a quantitative investigation of the energy transfer, a shell type model is developed, using a Monte Carlo procedure and the structural parameters of the systems. A good description of the experimental data is obtained assuming electric dipole−electric dipole interaction between donors and acceptors, with a critical distance Rc for [Ru(bpy)3]2+ to [Cr(ox)3]3- energy transfer of 15 Å and for [Ru(bpy)3]2+ to [Os(bpy)3]2+ energy transfer of 33 Å. These values are in good agreement with those derived using the Förster−Dexter theory.

Renal microvascular assembly and repair: power and promise of molecular definition.

Developmental assembly of the renal microcirculation is a precise and coordinated process now accessible to experimental scrutiny. Although definition of the cellular and molecular determinants is incomplete, recent findings have reframed concepts and questions about the origins of vascular cells in the glomerulus and the molecules that direct cell recruitment, specialization and morphogenesis. New findings illustrate principles that may be applied to defining critical steps in microvascular repair following glomerular injury. Developmental assembly of endothelial, mesangial and epithelial cells into glomerular capillaries requires that a coordinated, temporally defined series of steps occur in an anatomically ordered sequence. Recent evidence shows that both vasculogenic and angiogenic processes participate. Local signals direct cell migration, proliferation, differentiation, cell-cell recognition, formation of intercellular connections, and morphogenesis. Growth factor receptor tyrosine kinases on vascular cells are important mediators of many of these events. Cultured cell systems have suggested that basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF), hepatocyte growth factor (HGF), and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) promote endothelial cell proliferation, migration or morphogenesis, while genetic deletion experiments have defined an important role for PDGF beta receptors and platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) B in glomerular development. Receptor tyrosine kinases that convey non-proliferative signals also contribute in kidney and other sites. The EphB1 receptor, one of a diverse class of Eph receptors implicated in neural cell targeting, directs renal endothelial migration, cell-cell recognition and assembly, and is expressed with its ligand in developing glomeruli. Endothelial TIE2 receptors bind angiopoietins (1 and 2), the products of adjacent supportive cells, to signals direct capillary maturation in a sequence that defines cooperative roles for cells of different lineages. Ultimately, definition of the cellular steps and molecular sequence that direct microvascular cell assembly promises to identify therapeutic targets for repair and adaptive remodeling of injured glomeruli.

Localising moralities: power and temporality in Southeastern Europe

Introduction to a special issue

Bargaining for power and information : an experimental and theoretical analysis of the interaction between institutions, externalities and adverse selection

Bargaining is the building block of many economic interactions, ranging from bilateral to multilateral encounters and from situations in which the actors are individuals to negotiations between firms or countries. In all these settings, economists have been intrigued for a long time by the fact that some projects, trades or agreements are not realized even though they are mutually beneficial. On the one hand, this has been explained by incomplete information. A firm may not be willing to offer a wage that is acceptable to a qualified worker, because it knows that there are also unqualified workers and cannot distinguish between the two types. This phenomenon is known as adverse selection. On the other hand, it has been argued that even with complete information, the presence of externalities may impede efficient outcomes. To see this, consider the example of climate change. If a subset of countries agrees to curb emissions, non-participant regions benefit from the signatories’ efforts without incurring costs. These free riding opportunities give rise to incentives to strategically improve ones bargaining power that work against the formation of a global agreement. This thesis is concerned with extending our understanding of both factors, adverse selection and externalities. The findings are based on empirical evidence from original laboratory experiments as well as game theoretic modeling. On a very general note, it is demonstrated that the institutions through which agents interact matter to a large extent. Insights are provided about which institutions we should expect to perform better than others, at least in terms of aggregate welfare. Chapters 1 and 2 focus on the problem of adverse selection. Effective operation of markets and other institutions often depends on good information transmission properties. In terms of the example introduced above, a firm is only willing to offer high wages if it receives enough positive signals about the worker’s quality during the application and wage bargaining process. In Chapter 1, it will be shown that repeated interaction coupled with time costs facilitates information transmission. By making the wage bargaining process costly for the worker, the firm is able to obtain more accurate information about the worker’s type. The cost could be pure time cost from delaying agreement or cost of effort arising from a multi-step interviewing process. In Chapter 2, I abstract from time cost and show that communication can play a similar role. The simple fact that a worker states to be of high quality may be informative. In Chapter 3, the focus is on a different source of inefficiency. Agents strive for bargaining power and thus may be motivated by incentives that are at odds with the socially efficient outcome. I have already mentioned the example of climate change. Other examples are coalitions within committees that are formed to secure voting power to block outcomes or groups that commit to different technological standards although a single standard would be optimal (e.g. the format war between HD and BlueRay). It will be shown that such inefficiencies are directly linked to the presence of externalities and a certain degree of irreversibility in actions. I now discuss the three articles in more detail. In Chapter 1, Olivier Bochet and I study a simple bilateral bargaining institution that eliminates trade failures arising from incomplete information. In this setting, a buyer makes offers to a seller in order to acquire a good. Whenever an offer is rejected by the seller, the buyer may submit a further offer. Bargaining is costly, because both parties suffer a (small) time cost after any rejection. The difficulties arise, because the good can be of low or high quality and the quality of the good is only known to the seller. Indeed, without the possibility to make repeated offers, it is too risky for the buyer to offer prices that allow for trade of high quality goods. When allowing for repeated offers, however, at equilibrium both types of goods trade with probability one. We provide an experimental test of these predictions. Buyers gather information about sellers using specific price offers and rates of trade are high, much as the model’s qualitative predictions. We also observe a persistent over-delay before trade occurs, and this mitigates efficiency substantially. Possible channels for over-delay are identified in the form of two behavioral assumptions missing from the standard model, loss aversion (buyers) and haggling (sellers), which reconcile the data with the theoretical predictions. Chapter 2 also studies adverse selection, but interaction between buyers and sellers now takes place within a market rather than isolated pairs. Remarkably, in a market it suffices to let agents communicate in a very simple manner to mitigate trade failures. The key insight is that better informed agents (sellers) are willing to truthfully reveal their private information, because by doing so they are able to reduce search frictions and attract more buyers. Behavior observed in the experimental sessions closely follows the theoretical predictions. As a consequence, costless and non-binding communication (cheap talk) significantly raises rates of trade and welfare. Previous experiments have documented that cheap talk alleviates inefficiencies due to asymmetric information. These findings are explained by pro-social preferences and lie aversion. I use appropriate control treatments to show that such consideration play only a minor role in our market. Instead, the experiment highlights the ability to organize markets as a new channel through which communication can facilitate trade in the presence of private information. In Chapter 3, I theoretically explore coalition formation via multilateral bargaining under complete information. The environment studied is extremely rich in the sense that the model allows for all kinds of externalities. This is achieved by using so-called partition functions, which pin down a coalitional worth for each possible coalition in each possible coalition structure. It is found that although binding agreements can be written, efficiency is not guaranteed, because the negotiation process is inherently non-cooperative. The prospects of cooperation are shown to crucially depend on i) the degree to which players can renegotiate and gradually build up agreements and ii) the absence of a certain type of externalities that can loosely be described as incentives to free ride. Moreover, the willingness to concede bargaining power is identified as a novel reason for gradualism. Another key contribution of the study is that it identifies a strong connection between the Core, one of the most important concepts in cooperative game theory, and the set of environments for which efficiency is attained even without renegotiation.

Executive Power and the People: Does the President Care What You Think?

I sought to examine the relationship between public approval of the president and his subsequent behavior. Specifically, I looked at the relationship between public approval and signing statement usage along with their usage following the 2006 outcry against President Bush's use of them.

Knowledge of exercise recommendations and energy intake from foods and beverages in relation to exercise behaviors within two Hispanic border communities

This research is a secondary analysis of the Qué Sabrosa Vida population-based cross-sectional study of two predominately Mexican American communities located along the Texas-Mexico border in 2000. There were two aims for this research. The first was to determine the relationship between knowledge of exercise and water recommendations, and exercise behavior and water consumption. The second was to determine the relationship between exercise behavior and percentage of energy consumption from beverages. Chi-square analysis revealed the majority of both populations had adequate knowledge about water and exercise recommendations, although significant percentages of the populations (>40%) did not consume water or exercise in adequate amounts. Knowledge was found to be a component of both behaviors, as it was more prevalent in the adults who exercised and consumed water in adequate amounts. Analysis of variance revealed no significant difference between overall beverage calorie percentage and exercise level (all p-values > 0.05); both regions and genders reported ∼18% of total caloric intake from beverages. There was no disproportionate influence of beverage calories on total caloric intake, after controlling for water consumption and independent of exercise behavior. These findings suggest that overall caloric intake, from both foods and beverages, may be the most influential factor to the energy imbalance contributing to the obesity crisis in these Hispanic border populations. ^

Alterations in redox and energy metabolism in Ras-transformed cells: Mechanisms and therapeutic implications

Increasing attention has been given to the connection between metabolism and cancer. Under aerobic conditions, normal cells predominantly use oxidative phosphorylation for ATP generation. In contrast, increase of glycolytic activity has been observed in various tumor cells, which is known as Warburg effect. Cancer cells, compared to normal cells, produce high levels of Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) and hence are constantly under oxidative stress. Increase of oxidative stress and glycolytic activity in cancer cells represent major biochemical alterations associated with malignant transformation. Despite prevalent upregulation of ROS production and glycolytic activity observed in various cancer cells, underlying mechanisms still remain to be defined. Oncogenic signals including Ras has been linked to regulation of energy metabolism and ROS production. Current study was initiated to investigate the mechanism by which Ras oncogenic signal regulates cellular metabolism and redox status. A doxycycline inducible gene expression system with oncogenic K-ras transfection was constructed to assess the role played by Ras activation in any given studied parameters. Data obtained here reveals that K-ras activation directly caused mitochondrial dysfunction and ROS generation, which appeared to be mechanistically associated with translocation of K-ras to mitochondria and the opening of the mitochondrial permeability transition pore. K-ras induced mitochondrial dysfunction led to upregulation of glycolysis and constitutive activation of ROS-generating NAD(P)H Oxidase (NOX). Increased oxidative stress, upregulation of glycolytic activity, and constitutive activated NOX were also observed in the pancreatic K-ras transformed cancer cells compared to their normal counterparts. Compared to non-transformed cells, the pancreatic K-ras transformed cancer cells with activated NOX exhibited higher sensitivity to capsaicin, a natural compound that appeared to target NOX and cause preferential accumulation of oxidative stress in K-ras transformed cells. Taken together, these findings shed new light on the role played by Ras in the road to cancer in the context of oxidative stress and metabolic alteration. The mechanistic relationship between K-ras oncogenic signals and metabolic alteration in cancer will help to identify potential molecular targets such as NAD(P)H Oxidase and glycolytic pathway for therapeutic intervention of cancer development. ^

Effect of patient accrual patterns on power and size of log-rank test for time-to-event outcome in clinical trials

The determination of size as well as power of a test is a vital part of a Clinical Trial Design. This research focuses on the simulation of clinical trial data with time-to-event as the primary outcome. It investigates the impact of different recruitment patterns, and time dependent hazard structures on size and power of the log-rank test. A non-homogeneous Poisson process is used to simulate entry times according to the different accrual patterns. A Weibull distribution is employed to simulate survival times according to the different hazard structures. The current study utilizes simulation methods to evaluate the effect of different recruitment patterns on size and power estimates of the log-rank test. The size of the log-rank test is estimated by simulating survival times with identical hazard rates between the treatment and the control arm of the study resulting in a hazard ratio of one. Powers of the log-rank test at specific values of hazard ratio (≠1) are estimated by simulating survival times with different, but proportional hazard rates for the two arms of the study. Different shapes (constant, decreasing, or increasing) of the hazard function of the Weibull distribution are also considered to assess the effect of hazard structure on the size and power of the log-rank test. ^

Habitat characteristics and energy budget of the ocean quahog (Arctica islandica)

We compared lifetime and population energy budgets of the extraordinary long-lived ocean quahog Arctica islandica from 6 different sites - the Norwegian coast, Kattegat, Kiel Bay, White Sea, German Bight, and off northeast Iceland - covering a temperature and salinity gradient of 4-10°C (annual mean) and 25-34, respectively. Based on von Bertalanffy growth models and size-mass relationships, we computed organic matter production of body (PSB) and of shell (PSS), whereas gonad production (PG) was estimated from the seasonal cycle in mass. Respiration (R) was computed by a model driven by body mass, temperature, and site. A. islandica populations differed distinctly in maximum life span (40 y in Kiel Bay to 197 y in Iceland), but less in growth performance (phi' ranged from 2.41 in the White Sea to 2.65 in Kattegat). Individual lifetime energy throughput, as approximated by assimilation, was highest in Iceland (43,730 kJ) and lowest in the White Sea (313 kJ). Net growth efficiency ranged between 0.251 and 0.348, whereas lifetime energy investment distinctly shifted from somatic to gonad production with increasing life span; PS/PG decreased from 0.362 (Kiel Bay, 40 y) to 0.031 (Iceland, 197 y). Population annual energy budgets were derived from individual budgets and estimates of population mortality rate (0.035/y in Iceland to 0.173/y in Kiel Bay). Relationships between budget ratios were similar on the population level, albeit with more emphasis on somatic production; PS/ PG ranged from 0.196 (Iceland) to 2.728 (White Sea), and P/B ranged from 0.203-0.285/y. Life span is the principal determinant of the relationship between budget parameters, whereas temperature affects net growth efficiency only. In the White Sea population, both growth performance and net growth efficiency of A. islandica were lowest. We presume that low temperature combined with low salinity represent a particularly stressful environment for this species.