904 resultados para Policy Design, Analysis, and Evaluation


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Federal Highway Administration, Safety Design Division, McLean, Va.

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Urban Mass Transportation Administration, Washington, D.C.

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"Sponsored by Office of Policy Development and Research, Department of Housing and Urban Development."

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Mode of access: Internet.

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Item 231-B-1

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"ILENR/RE-WR-93/01."

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"May 1988."

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Contributing to the evaluation of seismic hazards, a previously unmapped strand of the Seattle Fault Zone (SFZ), cutting across the southwest side of Lake Washington and southeast Seattle, is located and characterized on the basis of bathymetry, borehole logs, and ground penetrating radar (GPR). Previous geologic mapping and geophysical analysis of the Seattle area have generally mapped the locations of some strands of the SFZ, though a complete and accurate understanding of locations of all individual strands of the fault system is still incomplete. A bathymetric scarp-like feature and co-linear aeromagnetic anomaly lineament defined the extent of the study area. A 2-dimensional lithology cross-section was constructed using six boreholes, chosen from suitable boreholes in the study area. In addition, two GPR transects, oblique to the proposed fault trend, served to identify physical differences in subsurface materials. The proposed fault trace follows the previously mapped contact between the Oligocene Blakeley Formation and Quaternary deposits, and topographic changes in slope. GPR profiles in Seward Park and across the proposed fault location show the contact between the Blakeley Formation and unconsolidated glacial deposits, but it does not constrain an offset. However, north-dipping beds in the Blakely Formation are consistent with previous interpretations of P-wave seismic profiles on Mercer Island and Bellevue, Washington. The profiles show the mapped location of the aeromagnetic lineament in Lake Washington and the inferred location of the steeply-dipping, high-amplitude bedrock reflector, representing a fault strand. This north-dipping reflector is likely the same feature identified in my analysis. I characterize the strand as a splay fault, antithetic to the frontal fault of the SFZ. This new fault may pose a geologic hazard to the region.

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Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

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Risk assessment systems for introduced species are being developed and applied globally, but methods for rigorously evaluating them are still in their infancy. We explore classification and regression tree models as an alternative to the current Australian Weed Risk Assessment system, and demonstrate how the performance of screening tests for unwanted alien species may be quantitatively compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The optimal classification tree model for predicting weediness included just four out of a possible 44 attributes of introduced plants examined, namely: (i) intentional human dispersal of propagules; (ii) evidence of naturalization beyond native range; (iii) evidence of being a weed elsewhere; and (iv) a high level of domestication. Intentional human dispersal of propagules in combination with evidence of naturalization beyond a plants native range led to the strongest prediction of weediness. A high level of domestication in combination with no evidence of naturalization mitigated the likelihood of an introduced plant becoming a weed resulting from intentional human dispersal of propagules. Unlikely intentional human dispersal of propagules combined with no evidence of being a weed elsewhere led to the lowest predicted probability of weediness. The failure to include intrinsic plant attributes in the model suggests that either these attributes are not useful general predictors of weediness, or data and analysis were inadequate to elucidate the underlying relationship(s). This concurs with the historical pessimism that we will ever be able to accurately predict invasive plants. Given the apparent importance of propagule pressure (the number of individuals of an species released), future attempts at evaluating screening model performance for identifying unwanted plants need to account for propagule pressure when collating and/or analysing datasets. The classification tree had a cross-validated sensitivity of 93.6% and specificity of 36.7%. Based on the area under the ROC curve, the performance of the classification tree in correctly classifying plants as weeds or non-weeds was slightly inferior (Area under ROC curve = 0.83 +/- 0.021 (+/- SE)) to that of the current risk assessment system in use (Area under ROC curve = 0.89 +/- 0.018 (+/- SE)), although requires many fewer questions to be answered.

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Background: Early detection and treatment of mental disorders in adolescents and young adults can lead to better health outcomes. Mental health literacy is a key to early recognition and help seeking. Whilst a number of population health initiatives have attempted to improve mental health literacy, none to date have specifically targeted young people nor have they applied the rigorous standards of population health models now accepted as best practice in other health areas. This paper describes the outcomes from the application of a health promotion model to the development, implementation and evaluation of a community awareness campaign designed to improve mental health literacy and early help seeking amongst young people. Method: The Compass Strategy was implemented in the western metropolitan Melbourne and Barwon regions of Victoria, Australia. The Precede-Proceed Model guided the population assessment, campaign strategy development and evaluation. The campaign included the use of multimedia, a website, and an information telephone service. Multiple levels of evaluation were conducted. This included a cross-sectional telephone survey of mental health literacy undertaken before and after 14 months of the campaign using a quasi-experimental design. Randomly selected independent samples of 600 young people aged 12 - 25 years from the experimental region and another 600 from a comparison region were interviewed at each time point. A series of binary logistic regression analyses were used to measure the association between a range of campaign outcome variables and the predictor variables of region and time. Results: The program was judged to have an impact on the following variables, as indicated by significant region-by-time interaction effects ( p < 0.05): awareness of mental health campaigns, self-identified depression, help for depression sought in the previous year, correct estimate of prevalence of mental health problems, increased awareness of suicide risk, and a reduction in perceived barriers to help seeking. These effects may be underestimated because media distribution error resulted in a small amount of print material leaking into the comparison region. Conclusion: We believe this is the first study to apply the rigorous standards of a health promotion model including the use of a control region to a mental health population intervention. The program achieved many of its aims despite the relatively short duration and moderate intensity of the campaign.

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How can empirical evidence of adverse effects from exposure to noxious agents, which is often incomplete and uncertain, be used most appropriately to protect human health? We examine several important questions on the best uses of empirical evidence in regulatory risk management decision-making raised by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s science-policy concerning uncertainty and variability in human health risk assessment. In our view, the US EPA (and other agencies that have adopted similar views of risk management) can often improve decision-making by decreasing reliance on default values and assumptions, particularly when causation is uncertain. This can be achieved by more fully exploiting decision-theoretic methods and criteria that explicitly account for uncertain, possibly conflicting scientific beliefs and that can be fully studied by advocates and adversaries of a policy choice, in administrative decision-making involving risk assessment. The substitution of decision-theoretic frameworks for default assumption-driven policies also allows stakeholder attitudes toward risk to be incorporated into policy debates, so that the public and risk managers can more explicitly identify the roles of risk-aversion or other attitudes toward risk and uncertainty in policy recommendations. Decision theory provides a sound scientific way explicitly to account for new knowledge and its effects on eventual policy choices. Although these improvements can complicate regulatory analyses, simplifying default assumptions can create substantial costs to society and can prematurely cut off consideration of new scientific insights (e.g., possible beneficial health effects from exposure to sufficiently low 'hormetic' doses of some agents). In many cases, the administrative burden of applying decision-analytic methods is likely to be more than offset by improved effectiveness of regulations in achieving desired goals. Because many foreign jurisdictions adopt US EPA reasoning and methods of risk analysis, it may be especially valuable to incorporate decision-theoretic principles that transcend local differences among jurisdictions.