Follow the money:the Audit Commission, Public Money and the Management of Public Services, 1983-2008, Duncan Campbell-Smith

Book review: Duncan Campbell-Smith. Allen Lane, 2008, 744 pp., £ 25 (hb), ISBN: 9781846140686

Econometrics of yield spreads in the money market:a note

The literature on bond markets and interest rates has focused largely on the term structure of interest rates, specifically, on the so-called expectations hypothesis. At the same time, little is known about the nature of the spread of the interest rates in the money market beyond the fact that such spreads are generally unstable. However, with the evolution of complex financial instruments, it has become imperative to identify the time series process that can help one accurately forecast such spreads into the future. This article explores the nature of the time series process underlying the spread between three-month and one-year US rates, and concludes that the movements in this spread over time is best captured by a GARCH(1,1) process. It also suggests the use of a relatively long term measure of interest rate volatility as an explanatory variable. This exercise has gained added importance in view of the revelation that GARCH based estimates of option prices consistently outperform the corresponding estimates based on the stylized Black-Scholes algorithm.

Breaks in the UK household sector money demand function

We use non-parametric procedures to identify breaks in the underlying series of UK household sector money demand functions. Money demand functions are estimated using cointegration techniques and by employing both the Simple Sum and Divisia measures of money. P-star models are also estimated for out-of-sample inflation forecasting. Our findings suggest that the presence of breaks affects both the estimation of cointegrated money demand functions and the inflation forecasts. P-star forecast models based on Divisia measures appear more accurate at longer horizons and the majority of models with fundamentals perform better than a random walk model.

More than money:developing an integrative multi-factorial measure of entrepreneurial success

This article conceptualises and operationalizes ‘subjective entrepreneurial success’ in a manner which reflects the criteria employed by entrepreneurs, rather than those imposed by researchers. Using two studies, a first qualitative enquiry investigated success definitions using interviews with 185 German entrepreneurs; five factors emerged from their reports: firm performance, workplace relationships, personal fulfilment, community impact, and personal financial rewards. The second study developed a questionnaire, the Subjective Entrepreneurial Success–Importance Scale (SES-IS), to measure these five factors using a sample of 184 entrepreneurs. We provide evidence for the validity of the SES-IS, including establishing systematic relationships of SES-IS with objective indicators of firm success, annual income and entrepreneur satisfaction with life and financial situation. We also provide evidence for the cross-cultural invariance of SES-IS using a sample of Polish entrepreneurs. The quintessence of our studies being that subjective entrepreneurial success is a multi-factorial construct, i.e. entrepreneurs value various indicators of success with money as only one possible option.

Does money matter in inflation forecasting?

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two nonlinear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regressiontechniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a nave random walk model. The best models were nonlinear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. Beyond its economic findings, our study is in the tradition of physicists' long-standing interest in the interconnections among statistical mechanics, neural networks, and related nonparametric statistical methods, and suggests potential avenues of extension for such studies. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Karl Marx és Karl Menger néhány gondolata a pénz eredetéről = The thoughts of Karl Marx and Karl Menger about the origin of money

Kisebb bizonytalankodás után a legtöbb közgazdászhallgató a pénz funkcióinak felsorolásába kezd, ha megkérdezik, hogyan határozná meg a pénz fogalmát. A gyakorlatiasabb, vagy a számvitel iránt elkötelezettebb diákok esetleg felidézik a banki mérleget és – részben helyesen – a pénzt kötelezettségként helyezik el benne. Mintha azonban még mindig egy kicsit pironkodnánk, hogy nem találjuk a megfelelő definíciót. És ez már így megy évszázadok óta. Jelen tanulmányban két XIX. századi közgazdász – Karl Marx és Karl Menger – néhány pénzelméleti következtetését igyekszem összehasonlítani, figyelembe véve az általuk képviselt közgazdasági elmélet alapvető eltéréseit. A mára általánosan elfogadottá váló szubjektív értékelmélet és a kissé elfeledett munkaérték-elmélet látszólag teljesen eltérő feltevéseire alapozva a két gondolkodó egészen hasonló eredményre jutott. Számukra a pénz nem egy egyszerű eszköz, sem követelés és kötelezettség, ahogyan most elkönyvelnénk, hanem áru. Eredetét nem állami törvényekből vezetik le, hanem társadalmi konszenzus során létrejött jelenségnek tekintik a pénzt, ami fölötte áll a törvényeknek, eredendően nem jelképet testesít meg, hanem különleges jószágként válik alkalmassá értékjel kifejezésére. / === / If being asked how to define money most students of economics would start listing the functions of money, or those students with more practical insight would place money as liability in the balance sheet of banks. It seems, however, as if we were still embarrassed by not finding the right definition. In the present study I am endeavouring to give a brief overview of various theoretical findings on the essence of money in the economy preceding the 19th century and then compare some money theoretical conclusions of two economists – Karl Marx and Karl Menger – considering the major differences of the economic theories represented by them. On the basis of the premises of the widely accepted subjective value theory and the somewhat forgotten labour theory of value the two 19th century thinkers came to rather similar results. For them money is not a simple means of payment, nor liability or claim, the way we would account for them now, but a special commodity. They do not attach its creation to the appearance of state laws on money as a legal tender but regard it as a social phenomenon which became capable of expressing a value token due to its peculiar characteristics.

Adósság, pénz és szabadság = Taxation, money and freedom

A tanulmány a Déltengeri Társasággal foglalkozó tanulmány folytatása (Madarász [2011]). A 18. századi brit államadósság szerepéről és kezeléséről szóló modern gazdaságtörténeti értékelések áttekintése után a tanulmány részletesen bemutatja Davenant, Defoe, Bolingbroke, Hume, Wallace, Pinto, Steuart és Smith érvelését a \"közhitel\" lehetséges és szükségszerű gazdasági és politikai hatásairól, a háborús kiadások fedezésének módjairól. Részletesebben tárgyalja Hume és Smith álláspontját a papírpénz és a bankok szerepéről, a pénzmennyiség változásának következményeiről és a skóciai \"szabad\" bankrendszer jellemzőiről. A vita egyik oldalán a közhitelt szükséges, ám veszélyes eszköznek tekintették, amely válságba sodorhatja az országot, és aláássa a politikai szabadságot, a másik vélemény szerint a kereskedő állam adóssága szükséges és előnyös, ösztönzi a gazdaság fejlődését, és kifejezi a polgárok bizalmát a kormányzat iránt. / === / The study, following on from the author s previous work on the history of South Sea Company, focuses on the issue of public debt in 18th-century British economic writings. The first part reviews recent debates among economic historians: how to explain the growing credibility of British governments after 1689. The next details the arguments of some important protagonists in the early modern age - Davenant, Defoe, Bolingbroke, Hume, Wallace, Pinto, Steuart and Smith - on the expected economic and political consequences of an increasing public debt and on the methods of financing wars. This is followed by discussion of the monetary theories of Hume and Smith, notably their views on banks, credit, paper money, the effects of increasing money supply, and the features of free\" Scottish banking system. Two main lines of argument were advanced in the controversies on public debt. Several writers regarded it as a necessary but dangerous instrument that undermines political liberty and can lead the state into financial bankruptcy. Others described it as not only necessary, but advantageous to a commercial nation, by stimulating trade and development and symbolizing the public s confidence in their government.

Does Lost Time Cost You Money and Create High Risk?

The aim of the case study is to express the delayed repair time impact on the revenues and profit in numbers with the example of the outage of power plant units. Main steps of risk assessment: • creating project plan suitable for risk assessment • identification of the risk factors for each project activities • scenario-analysis based evaluation of risk factors • selection of the critical risk factors based on the results of quantitative risk analysis • formulating risk response actions for the critical risks • running Monte-Carlo simulation [1] using the results of scenario-analysis • building up a macro which creates the connection among the results of the risk assessment, the production plan and the business plan.

Hálapénz a magyar egészségügyben = Gratitude money in the Hungarian health sector

A tanulmány szerzői lakossági és orvosi minta kikérdezése alapján arra keresik a választ, hogy a valóságban mennyire elterjedt a hálapénz adása és elfogadása a magyar egészségügyben, miként szóródik az egyes orvosi szakmák között, és mekkora az egyes beavatkozási formák hálapénzára. A kapott eredmények szerint, a hálapénzárak nyilvánossá tételének korlátai ellenére a piac szereplői többé-kevésbé egyöntetűen ítélik meg, mi mennyibe kerül. A szerzők megbecsülik az egy év leforgása alatt kifizetett hálapénz összegét. Ennek alapján arra a következtetésre jutnak, hogy az "átlagorvos" hálapénzből származó bevétele bő másfélszerese hálapénz nélkül vett jövedelmének. __________ The authors examine the incidence, in the Hungarian health sector, of gratitude payments from patients to doctors, based on a questionnaire administered to samples of the public and of the medical profession. They look at how the payments are distributed among the branches of medicine, and what payment is customary for various medical treatments. The survey findings show that although there are constraints on public knowledge of the size of gratitude payments, market actors more or less agree in their estimates of what provisions cost. Based on this, the authors conclude that the income the "average" doctor receives from gratitude payments is at least one-and-a-half times as much as his or her income apart from gratitude money.

Double or quits: should money found be risked?

This article examines social attitudes towards risk-preference and risk-aversion. First, we briefly discuss the theoretical approach to the analysis of risk-preference and risk-aversion that was developed within rational choice theory. Next, we present an approach to operationalise risk-preference using survey data. Our measurement of attitudes towards risk follows the usual strategy: respondents are asked to choose between a small amount of money they get for sure, and a large but risky amount. Drawing on the theoretical models and earlier empirical research, we formulate hypotheses about the social factors that have an impact on actual decision making in the situations under study. The hypotheses are tested using survey data. The article ends with a brief discussion. The novelty of our paper is that – to the best of our knowledge – neither previous Hungarian nor international research has attempted to examine attitudes towards risk using data from large-scale surveys.

"It's so little money you could make as much at home" - options for work in an impoverished rural region of high unemployment.

Hungary has a higher unemployment rate than the member states of the European Union and even most former socialist countries. This rate for 15-64 year-olds has been around 56% since 1999, as against 66% in the European Union (OECD Employment Database). There is also a high degree of regional unevenness within the country. The situation is worst in North Hungary, an area of multiple economic and social deprivations. Several pieces of research have analysed the causes of long-term unemployment and have highlighted the main social, geographical and institutional factors behind it. People of low educational attainment who live in small villages and members of the Roma minority are particularly likely to have been without jobs for a long time.

Satisfaction: Is Money Everything?

When people are asked whether they are satisfied with their jobs or careers, the first item that comes to mind, most of the time, is money. Then other factors such as advancement, work hours, autonomy, flexibility, etc. are soon added to the total equation. In this study, 140 financial and technology professionals in the lodging industry shared their satisfaction level and perceived importance of carious attributes of their career.

Inez Garcia, killed her rapist, pictured here in New York to get money and support for her new trial in June

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Senior Citizens at meeting about money and war

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.

Women discuss opening businesses to make more money

General note: Title and date provided by Bettye Lane.