The financial and environmental performance of firms exposed to the EU Emissions Trading Scheme

This thesis is an empirical-based study of the European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and its implications in terms of corporate environmental and financial performance. The novelty of this study includes the extended scope of the data coverage, as most previous studies have examined only the power sector. The use of verified emissions data of ETS-regulated firms as the environmental compliance measure and as the potential differentiating criteria that concern the valuation of EU ETS-exposed firms in the stock market is also an original aspect of this study. The study begins in Chapter 2 by introducing the background information on the emission trading system (ETS), which focuses on (i) the adoption of ETS as an environmental management instrument and (ii) the adoption of ETS by the European Union as one of its central climate policies. Chapter 3 surveys four databases that provide carbon emissions data in order to determine the most suitable source of the data to be used in the later empirical chapters. The first empirical chapter, which is also Chapter 4 of this thesis, investigates the determinants of the emissions compliance performance of the EU ETS-exposed firms through constructing the best possible performance ratio from verified emissions data and self-configuring models for a panel regression analysis. Chapter 5 examines the impacts on the EU ETS-exposed firms in terms of their equity valuation with customised portfolios and multi-factor market models. The research design takes into account the emissions allowance (EUA) price as an additional factor, as it has the most direct association with the EU ETS to control for the exposure. The final empirical Chapter 6 takes the investigation one step further, by specifically testing the degree of ETS exposure facing different sectors with sector-based portfolios and an extended multi-factor market model. The findings from the emissions performance ratio analysis show that the business model of firms significantly influences emissions compliance, as the capital intensity has a positive association with the increasing emissions-to-emissions cap ratio. Furthermore, different sectors show different degrees of sensitivity towards the determining factors. The production factor influences the performance ratio of the Utilities sector, but not the Energy or Materials sectors. The results show that the capital intensity has a more profound influence on the utilities sector than on the materials sector. With regard to the financial performance impact, ETS-exposed firms as aggregate portfolios experienced a substantial underperformance during the 2001–2004 period, but not in the operating period of 2005–2011. The results of the sector-based portfolios show again the differentiating effect of the EU ETS on sectors, as one sector is priced indifferently against its benchmark, three sectors see a constant underperformance, and three sectors have altered outcomes.

The role of industry bodies in changing market practices through self-regulation: commercial property leasing in the UK

The UK government has sought to make changes to commercial property leasing practices. This has been the case since the recession of the 1990s. Industry self-regulation using an industry code of practice has been the vehicle for these changes. However, the code has had little direct success in changing practices. This is despite repeated threats of legislation as a constant backdrop to this initiative. The focus for this research is on the role of the industry bodies in the code initiative. They have been central to self-regulation in commercial leasing. Thus, the aim is to investigate the role of industry bodies in the process of institutional change. The context is industry self-regulation. The specific setting is commercial leasing. The main industry bodies in focus are the British Property Federation and Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. An existing model of institutional change forms the framework for the research. A chronological narrative is constructed from secondary data. This is analysed, identifying the actions of the industry bodies within the conceptual stages of the model. The analysis shows that the industry bodies had not acted as convincing agents of change for commercial leasing. In particular there was a lack of theorisation, a key stage in the process. The industry bodies did not develop a framework necessary to guide their members through the change process. These shortcomings of the industry bodies are likely to have contributed to the failure of the Code. However, the main conclusion is that, if industry self-regulation is led by government, then the state must work with industry bodies to harness their potential as champions and drivers of institutional change. This is particularly important in achieving change in institutionalised environments.

Impact of cyclones on sea ice in the Fram Strait: numerical simulations and observations

The sea ice export from the Arctic is of global importance due to its fresh water which influences the oceanic stratification and, thus, the global thermohaline circulation. This study deals with the effect of cyclones on sea ice and sea ice transport in particular on the basis of observations from two field experiments FRAMZY 1999 and FRAMZY 2002 in April 1999 and March 2002 as well as on the basis of simulations with a numerical sea ice model. The simulations realised by a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model are forced with 6-hourly atmospheric ECMWF- analyses (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and 6-hourly oceanic data of a MPI-OM-simulation (Max-Planck-Institute Ocean Model). Comparing the observed and simulated variability of the sea ice drift and of the position of the ice edge shows that the chosen configuration of the model is appropriate for the performed studies. The seven observed cyclones change the position of the ice edge up to 100 km and cause an extensive decrease of sea ice coverage by 2 % up to more than 10 %. The decrease is only simulated by the model if the ocean current is strongly divergent in the centre of the cyclone. The impact is remarkable of the ocean current on divergence and shear deformation of the ice drift. As shown by sensitivity studies the ocean current at a depth of 6 m – the sea ice model is forced with – is mainly responsible for the ascertained differences between simulation and observation. The simulated sea ice transport shows a strong variability on a time scale from hours to days. Local minima occur in the time series of the ice transport during periods with Fram Strait cyclones. These minima are not caused by the local effect of the cyclone’s wind field, but mainly by the large-scale pattern of surface pressure. A displacement of the areas of strongest cyclone activity in the Nordic Seas would considerably influence the ice transport.

Muriel Rukeyser: poetry and the body

The human body occupies a central place in Rukeyser’s poetry. Her characters’ physical experiences inspire their search for an artistic form and a holistic vision that reconciles the corporeal and conceptual aspects of their life. My thesis deals with Rukeyser’s reconciliation of disparate aspects of existence through the image of the human body and the practical experiences she underwent in her personal life and incorporated in her poetry. I discuss her poetry of the 1940s, where a tension is observed between the artist’s personal life and her art, which she attempts to resolve by adopting an artistic form that accommodates her quotidian experiences. I study, mainly through her poetry of the 1950s, Rukeyser’s poetic technique in the light of her organicist poetics and the combination of tendencies to coercion and suggestiveness distinguishing her style. I examine her portrayal of the suffering body in her poetry of the 1960s and 1970s. By means of their physical experiences, the ill, her despised and the imprisoned protagonists undergo a process of development whereby they perceive the different aspects of their identity and attempt to broaden perspectives on their situation by reconciling them. I argue that Rukeyser’s engagement with physical encounters and with the poem as an inclusive, organic body enables her to reconcile disparate elements in her poetry, such as her personal life and her art, her individual existence and the public world, as well as the distinct aspects of her characters’ identity. Her vatic outlook, which integrates distinct aspects of experience, is consistent with Merleau-Ponty’s idea of human perception as characterised by the two interdependent positions of immanence and transcendence. Rukeyser’s poetry depicts her physical engagement with quotidian events of her life as a factor of artistic inspiration. These situations constitute shared human experiences that enable her to imagine the links binding her to other people and the world at large. The poet’s personal experiences inspire her search for an artistic form that accommodates them. Her perception of the concrete aspect of her individual existence gains significance when it is linked to social and political issues. Both the private and public are thus seen as interconnected, and they affect the existence of each other while retaining their distinctness.

The evolution and heterogeneity of outward foreign direct investment from Latin America

The PhD dissertation investigates the rise of emerging country multinationals (EMNEs), a phenomenon that has opened up a series of research themes and debates. The main debate in this field is the extent to which the theories/frameworks on foreign direct investment (FDI), which have been developed from investigations on multinationals from developed countries, is relevant in explaining outward FDI from EMNEs. This debate is sparked by research suggesting that EMNEs supposedly do not hold the characteristics that are seen as a prerequisite to engaging in FDI. The underlying theme in this PhD is that the field should move away from a one size fit all categorisation of EMNEs, and explore the heterogeneity within EMNEs. Collecting data through various databases, archival articles and annual reports, there was an examination of the internationalisation process of 136 Latin American Multinationals (LAMNEs). The research explores the differences in internationalisation trajectories and global strategies and classifies firms into one of four categories. The four categories that LAMNEs fall into are: Natural-Resource Vertical Integrator, which are firms that are in resource seeking sectors; Accelerated Global, which depict firms that have become global over a very short period of time; Traditional Global, which are EMNEs that have internationalised at the same pace as developed country MNEs and Local Optimisers that only acquire or internationalise to developing countries. The analysis also looks at which decade LAMNEs engaged in FDI, to see if LAMNEs that internationalised during the 1970s and 1980s, during a time when Latin America had a closed economy, was different to LAMNEs that internationalised during the Washington consensus era of the 1990s or to firms that have only just internationalised within the last decade. The findings show that LAMNEs that internationalised before 1990 were more likely to adopt Local Optimiser strategies. However, more LAMNEs that started to internationalise during the 1990s started to adopt Traditional Global strategies, although Local Optimisers were the most prominent strategy. From 2002, there was more prominence of Accelerated Global strategies and a lot more heterogeneity among LAMNEs. Natural-Resource Vertical Integrator LAMNEs, tended to start to internationalisation process during the 1970s/1980s. Despite the rise of EMNEs, and by extension LAMNEs opting to use cross border merger and acquisitions (M&A), there is little research on whether this entry mode has been successful. Contrary to the argument that EMNEs are “internationalising successfully” through this strategy, the findings show that these firms are highly geared and are running less efficiently against their Western competitors. In comparison, LAMNEs internationalising through a more gradual approach, are outperforming their Western competitors on efficiency and are not highly geared- i.e. do not hold a lot of debt. The conclusion of the thesis is the emphasis of moving away from evaluating firms from their country or region of origin, but rather through the global strategy they are using. This will give a more a robust firm level of analysis, and help develop the understanding of EMNEs and international business theory.

Dying young: a palaeopathological analysis of child health in Roman Britain

Children represent the most vulnerable members of society, and as such provide valuable insight into past lifeways. Adverse environmental conditions translate more readily into the osteological record of children, making them primary evidence for the investigation of ill-health in the past. To date, most information on growing up in Roman Britain has been based on the Classical literature, or discussed in palaeopathological studies with a regional focus, e.g. Dorset or Durnovaria. Thus, the lifestyles and everyday realities of children throughout Britannia remained largely unknown. This study sets out to fill this gap by providing the first large scale analysis of Romano-British children from town and country. The palaeopathological analysis of 1643 non-adult (0-17 years) skeletons, compiled from the literature (N=690) and primary osteological analysis (N=953), from 27 urban and rural settlements has highlighted diverse patterns in non-adult mortality and morbidity. The distribution of ages-at-death suggest that older children and adolescents migrated from country to town, possibly for commencing their working lives. True prevalence rates suggest that caries (1.8%) and enamel hypoplasia (11.4%) were more common in children from major urban towns, whereas children in the countryside displayed higher frequencies of scurvy (6.9%), cribra orbitalia (27.7%), porotic hyperostosis (6.2%) and endocranial lesions (10.9%). Social inequality in late Roman Britain may have been the driving force behind these urban-rural dichotomies. The results may point to exploitation of the peasantry on the one hand, and higher status of the urban population as a more ‘Romanised’ group on the other. Comparison with Iron Age and post-medieval non-adults also demonstrated a decline in health in the Roman period, with some levels of ill-health, particularly in the rural children, similar to those from post-medieval London. This research provides the most comprehensive study of non-adult morbidity and mortality in Roman Britain to date. It has provided new insights into Romano-British lifeways and presents suggestions for further work.

Cacao swollen shoot virus in Nigeria: analysis of a pathogen and its vectors

Cacao swollen shoot virus (CSSV) causes the Cacao swollen shoot virus disease (CSSVD) and significantly reduces production in West African cacao. This study characterised the current status of the disease in the major cacao growing States in Nigeria and attempted a clarification on the manner of CSSV transmission. Two separate field surveys and sample collections were conducted in Nigeria in summer 2012 and spring 2013. PCR-based screening of cacao leaf samples and subsequent DNA sequencing showed that the disease continues to persist in Ondo and Oyo States and in new cacao sites in Abia, Akwa Ibom, Cross River and Edo States. Mealybug samples collected were identified using a robust approach involving environmental scanning electron microscopy, histology and DNA barcoding, which highlighted the importance of integrative taxonomy in the study. The results show that the genus Planococcus (Planococcus citri (Risso) and/or Planococcus minor (Maskell)) was the most abundant vector (73.5%) at the sites examined followed by Formicococcus njalensis (Laing) (19.0 %). In a laboratory study, the feeding behaviour of Pl. citri, Pseudococcus longispinus (Targioni-Tozzetti) and Pseudococcus viburni (Signoret) on cacao were investigated using electrical penetration graph (EPG) analysis. EPG waveforms reflecting intercellular stylet penetration (C), extracellular salivation (E1e), salivation in sieve elements (E1), phloem ingestion (E2), derailed stylet mechanics (F), xylem ingestion (G) and non-probing phase (Np) were analysed. Individual mealybugs exhibited marked variation within species and significantly differed (p ≤ .05) between species for E1e and E1. PCR-based assessments of the retention time for CSSV in viruliferous Pl. citri, Ps. longispinus and Ps. viburni fed on a non-cacao diet showed that CSSV was still detectable after 144 hours. These unusually long durations for a pathogen currently classified as a semi-persistent virus have implications for the design of non-malvaceous barrier crops currently being considered for the protection of new cacao plantings.

Understanding advances in the simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a numerical weather prediction model.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the Trop- ics. It can be characterised as a planetary-scale coupling between the atmospheric circulation and organised deep convection that propagates east through the equatorial Indo-Pacific region. The MJO interacts with weather and climate systems on a near-global scale and is a crucial source of predictability for weather forecasts on medium to seasonal timescales. Despite its global signifi- cance, accurately representing the MJO in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models remains a challenge. This thesis focuses on the representation of the MJO in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), a state-of-the-art NWP model. Recent modifications to the model physics in Cycle 32r3 (Cy32r3) of the IFS led to ad- vances in the simulation of the MJO; for the first time the observed amplitude of the MJO was maintained throughout the integration period. A set of hindcast experiments, which differ only in their formulation of convection, have been performed between May 2008 and April 2009 to asses the sensitivity of MJO simulation in the IFS to the Cy32r3 convective parameterization. Unique to this thesis is the attribution of the advances in MJO simulation in Cy32r3 to the mod- ified convective parameterization, specifically, the relative-humidity-dependent formulation for or- ganised deep entrainment. Increasing the sensitivity of the deep convection scheme to environmen- tal moisture is shown to modify the relationship between precipitation and moisture in the model. Through dry-air entrainment, convective plumes ascending in low-humidity environments terminate lower in the atmosphere. As a result, there is an increase in the occurrence of cumulus congestus, which acts to moisten the mid-troposphere. Due to the modified precipitation-moisture relationship more moisture is able to build up which effectively preconditions the tropical atmosphere for the transition to deep convection. Results from this thesis suggest that a tropospheric moisture control on convection is key to simulating the interaction between the physics and large-scale circulation associated with the MJO.

Conflicts of law and the mutual recognition of same-sex unions in the EU

My thesis uses legal arguments to demonstrate a requirement for recognition of same-sex marriages and registered partnerships between EU Member States. I draw on the US experience, where arguments for recognition of marriages void in some states previously arose in relation to interracial marriages. I show how there the issue of recognition today depends on conflicts of law and its interface with US constitutional freedoms against discrimination. I introduce the themes of the importance of domicile, the role of the public policy exception, vested rights, and relevant US constitutional freedoms. Recognition in the EU also depends on managing the tension between private international law and freedoms guaranteed by higher norms, in this case the EU Treaties and the European Convention on Human Rights. I set out the inconsistencies between various private international law systems and the problems this creates. Other difficulties are caused by the use of nationality as a connecting factor to determine personal capacity, and the overuse of the public policy exception. I argue that EU Law can constrain the use of conflicts law or public policy by any Member State where these are used to deny effect to same-sex unions validly formed elsewhere. I address the fact that family law falls only partly within Union competence, that existing EU Directives have had limited success at achieving full equality and that powers to implement new measures have not been used to their full potential. However, Treaty provisions outlawing discrimination on grounds of nationality can be interpreted so as to require recognition in many cases. Treaty citizenship rights can also be interpreted favourably to mandate recognition, once private international law is itself recognised as an obstacle to free movement. Finally, evolving interpretations of the European Convention on Human Rights may also support claims for cross-border recognition of existing relationships.

A case study of the Tatweer school system in Saudi Arabia: the perceptions of leaders and teachers

School reform is a major concern in many countries that seek to improve their educational systems and enhance their performances. In consequence, many global schemes, theories, studies, attempts, and programmes have been introduced to promote education in recent years. Saudi Arabia is one of these countries that implemented educational change by introducing many initiatives. The Tatweer Programme is one of these initiatives and is considered as a major recent reform. The main purpose of this study is to investigate this reform in depth by examining the perceptions and experiences of the Tatweer leaders and teachers to find out which extent they have been enabled to be innovative, and to examine the types of leadership and decision-making that have been undertaken by such schools. This study adopted a qualitative case study that employed interviews, focus groups and documentary analysis. The design of the study has been divided into two phases; the first phase was the feasibility study and the second phase was the main study. The research sample of the feasibility study was head teachers, educational experts and Tatweer Unit’s members. The sample of the main study was three Tatweer schools, Tatweer Unit members and one official of Tatweer Project in Riyadh. The findings of this study identified the level of autonomy in managing the school; the Tatweer schools’ system is semi-autonomous when it comes to the internal management, but it lacks autonomy when it comes to staff appointment, student assessment, and curriculum development. In addition, the managerial work has been distributed through teams and members; the Excellence Team plays a critical role in school effectiveness leading an efficient change. Moreover, Professional Learning Communities have been used to enhance the work within Tatweer schools. Finally the findings show that there have been major shifts in the Tatweer schools’ system; the shifting from centralisation to semi-decentralisation; from the culture of the individual to the culture of community; from the traditional school to one focused on self-evaluation and planning; from management to leadership; and from an isolated school being open to society. These shifts have impacted positively on the attitudes of students, parents and staff.

Edible oil from Tiger nut (Cyperus esculentus L.): mechanical pressing and aqueous enzymatic extraction methods

The tiger nut tuber of the Cyperus esculentus L. plant is an unusual storage system with similar amounts of starch and lipid. The extraction of its oil employing both mechanical pressing and aqueous enzymatic extraction (AEE) methods was investigated and an examination of the resulting products was carried out. The effects of particle size and moisture content of the tuber on the yield of tiger nut oil with pressing were initially studied. Smaller particles were found to enhance oil yields while a range of moisture content was observed to favour higher oil yields. When samples were first subjected to high pressures up to 700 MPa before pressing at 38 MPa there was no increase in the oil yields. Ground samples incubated with a mixture of α- Amylase, Alcalase, and Viscozyme (a mixture of cell wall degrading enzyme) as a pre-treatment, increased oil yield by pressing and 90% of oil was recovered as a result. When aqueous enzymatic extraction was carried out on ground samples, the use of α- Amylase, Alcalase, and Celluclast independently improved extraction oil yields compared to oil extraction without enzymes by 34.5, 23.4 and 14.7% respectively. A mixture of the three enzymes further augmented the oil yield and different operational factors were individually studied for their effects on the process. These include time, total mixed enzyme concentration, linear agitation speed, and solid-liquid ratio. The largest oil yields were obtained with a solid-liquid ratio of 1:6, mixed enzyme concentration of 1% (w/w) and 6 h incubation time although the longer time allowed for the formation of an emulsion. Using stationary samples during incubation surprisingly gave the highest oil yields, and this was observed to be as a result of gravity separation occurring during agitation. Furthermore, the use of high pressure processing up to 300 MPa as a pre-treatment enhanced oil yields but additional pressure increments had a detrimental effect. The quality of oils recovered from both mechanical and aqueous enzymatic extraction based on the percentage free fatty acid (% FFA) and peroxide values (PV) all reflected the good stabilities of the oils with the highest % FFA of 1.8 and PV of 1.7. The fatty acid profiles of all oils also remained unchanged. The level of tocopherols in oils were enhanced with both enzyme aided pressing (EAP) and high pressure processing before AEE. Analysis on the residual meals revealed DP 3 and DP 4 oligosaccharides present in EAP samples but these would require further assessment on their identity and quality.

‘Symptomless’ infection by Botrytis cinerea

The study was carried out to clarify the nature of symptomless infection by Botrytis cinerea and to what extent it differs from aggressive necrotic infection in Lactuca sativa (lettuce) and Arabidopsis thaliana. Symptomless plants were produced by dry spore inoculation in plants growing in controlled environmental conditions or in glasshouses. Plating out of surface-disinfected and non-surface-disinfected samples of inoculated, apparently healthy, plants on selective medium revealed that the fungus was spreading from the initial inoculation site to newly developing plant organs both internally and externally. Similar findings were obtained in microscope experiments in which host plants were inoculated with GFP labelled B. cinerea and symptomless spreading was monitored under confocal laser scanning microscope. Spore germination on leaf surface was followed by development of sub-cuticular vesicles and plant cell damage in the infected epidermal cell and a few nearby cells. Sparsely branched long hyphae arose from the vesicles and spread on the leaf surface; spread was mostly on the outer surface of the epidermal layer but occasionally below the cuticle or epidermal cells. In the late symptomless phase, mycelium arising from single vesicles formed several mycelial networks on leaves. Experiments were carried out to compare the extent of gene expression in symptomless and necrotic infections, using RT-qPCR. Expression of selected genes was quantified in tissue samples based on the amount of mRNA of the respective genes found. In both host species, the mRNA concentration of signalling genes bcg1, bmp1 and calcineurin, and the pathogenicity genes bcsod1 and bcpg1 were similar to or slightly greater in symptomless samples than in necrotic samples. The mRNA of the signalling gene bac and pathogenicity genes bcbot1 and bcnep1, were not detected or detected in lower abundance than in necrosis. In lettuce, the leaves developing distant from the site of inoculation showed similar results to A. thaliana, but in healthy leaves close to the site of inoculation mRNA concentrations of bac and bcnep1 were similar to necrotic samples. Thus, in both host species, the fungus grew along with the plant and moved to newly growing plant parts without producing symptoms; during this growth some pathogenicity genes were less expressed than in necrotic infection.

Exploiting thermally-reversible chemistry for controlling the crosslinking of polymer networks

High explosives are highly sensitive to accidental detonation by impact, fire, shrapnel and small arms fire. This sensitivity can be reduced by storing the energetic material within a rubbery polymer matrix and are known as plastic bonded explosives (PBX). The current procedure used to manufacture PBX involves mixing the energetic material with a hydroxy-functionalised aliphatic polymer. Upon the addition of an isocyanate crosslinker an immediate polymerisation occurs and thus the rapidly curing mixture must be used to fill the missile or shells, referred to as ‘stores’. This process can lead to poor distribution of the crosslinker resulting in the formation of an inhomogeneously crosslinked matrix and the formation of voids. One solution to this problem involves containing the crosslinker within polyurethane microcapsules that are uniformly dispersed in the explosive-polymer mixture. Upon the application of a stimulus the crosslinker can be released from the microcapsules and the formation of a uniformly crosslinked PBX achieved. Herein is reported the design and synthesis of polyurethane microcapsules that release isocyanate crosslinkers when desired using a thermal stimulus. This has been achieved by exploiting the thermally-reversible nature of oxime-urethane and Diels-Alder adducts that have been incorporated into the shell wall of the microcapsules. An alternative approach to controlling the polymerisation of PBX materials has also been achieved using thermally-reversible blocked isocyanates that regenerate the isocyanate crosslinker when exposed to heat.

The effect of simulated flooding post-anthesis on pre-harvest sprouting and subsequent seed longevity in contrasting rice cultivars

Unpredictable flooding is a major constraint to rice production. It can occur at any growth stage. The effect of simulated flooding post-anthesis on yield and subsequent seed quality of pot-grown rice (Oryza sativa L.) plants was investigated in glasshouses and controlled-environment growth cabinets. Submergence post-anthesis (9-40 DAA) for 3 or 5 days reduced seed weight of japonica rice cv. Gleva, with considerable pre-harvest sprouting (up to 53%). The latter was greater the later in seed development and maturation that flooding occurred. Sprouted seed had poor ability to survive desiccation or germinate normally upon rehydration, whereas the effects of flooding on the subsequent air-dry seed storage longevity (p50) of the non-sprouted seed fraction was negligible. The indica rice cvs IR64 and IR64Sub1 (introgression of submergence tolerance gene Submergence1A-1) were both far more tolerant to flooding post-anthesis than cv. Gleva: four days’ submergence of these two near-isogenic cultivars at 10-40 DAA resulted less than 1% sprouted seeds. The presence of the Sub1A-1 allele in cv. IR64Sub1 was verified by gel electrophoresis and DNA sequencing. It had no harmful effect on loss in seed viability during storage compared with IR64 in both control and flooded environments. Moreover, the germinability and changes in dormancy during seed development and maturation were very similar to IR64. The efficiency of using chemical spray to increase seed dormancy was investigated in the pre-harvest sprouting susceptible rice cv. Gleva. Foliar application of molybdenum at 100 mg L-1 reduced sprouted seeds by 15-21% following 4 days’ submergence at 20-30 DAA. Analyses confirmed that the treatment did result in molybdenum uptake by the plants, and also tended to increase seed abscisic acid concentration. The latter was reduced by submergence and declined exponentially during grain ripening. The selection of submergence-tolerant varieties was more successful than application of molybdenum in reducing pre-harvest sprouting.

Simulating decadal variability in the North Atlantic Ocean

Observations and climate models suggest significant decadal variability within the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NA SPG), though observations are sparse and models disagree on the details of this variability. Therefore, it is important to understand 1) the mechanisms of simulated decadal variability, 2) which parts of simulated variability are more faithful representations of reality, and 3) the implications for climate predictions. Here, we investigate the decadal variability in the NA SPG in the state-of-the-art, high resolution (0.25◦ ocean resolution), climate model ‘HadGEM3’. We find a decadal mode with a period of 17 years that explains 30% of the annual variance in related indices. The mode arises due to the advection of heat content anomalies, and shows asymmetries in the timescale of phase reversal between positive and negative phases. A negative feedback from temperature-driven density anomalies in the Labrador Sea (LS) allows for the phase reversal. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which exhibits the same periodicity, amplifies the mode. The atmosphere-ocean coupling is stronger during positive rather than negative NAO states, explaining the asymmetry. Within the NA SPG, there is potential predictability arising partly from this mode for up to 5 years. There are important similarities between observed and simulated variability, such as the apparent role for the propagation of heat content anomalies. However, observations suggest interannual LS density anomalies are salinity-driven. Salinity control of density would change the temperature feedback to the south, possibly limiting real-world predictive skill in the southern NA SPG with this model. Finally, to understand the diversity of behaviours, we analyse 42 present-generation climate models. Temperature and salinity biases are found to systematically influence the driver of density variability in the LS. Resolution is a good predictor of the biases. The dependence of variability on the background state has important implications for decadal predictions.