Potencialidad de la modelización state-space y el filtro de Kalman para el anàlisis regional : una aplicación para el índice de actividad industrial

El déficit existente a nuestro país con respecto a la disponibilidad de indicadores cuantitativos con los que llevar a término un análisis coyuntural de la actividad industrial regional ha abierto un debate centrado en el estudio de cuál es la metodología más adecuada para elaborar indicadores de estas características. Dentro de este marco, en este trabajo se presentan las principales conclusiones obtenidas en anteriores estudios (Clar, et. al., 1997a, 1997b y 1998) sobre la idoneidad de extender las metodologías que actualmente se están aplicando a las regiones españolas para elaborar indicadores de la actividad industrial mediante métodos indirectos. Estas conclusiones llevan a plantear una estrategia distinta a las que actualmente se vienen aplicando. En concreto, se propone (siguiendo a Israilevich y Kuttner, 1993) un modelo de variables latentes para estimar el indicador de la producción industrial regional. Este tipo de modelo puede especificarse en términos de un modelo statespace y estimarse mediante el filtro de Kalman. Para validar la metodología propuesta se estiman unos indicadores de acuerdo con ella para tres de las cuatro regiones españolas que disponen d¿un Índice de Producción Industrial (IPI) elaborado mediante el método directo (Andalucía, Asturias y el País Vasco) y se comparan con los IPIs publicados (oficiales). Los resultados obtenidos muestran el buen comportamiento de l¿estrategia propuesta, abriendo así una línea de trabajo con la que subsanar el déficit al que se hacía referencia anteriormente

Effect of added dead space on sleep disordered breathing at high altitude.

OBJECTIVE: Sleep disordered breathing with central apnea or hypopnea frequently occurs at high altitude and is thought to be caused by a decrease in blood CO(2) level. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of added respiratory dead space on sleep disordered breathing.¦METHODS: Full polysomnographies were performed on 12 unacclimatized swiss mountaineers (11 males, 1 female, mean age 39±12 y.o.) in Leh, Ladakh (3500m). In random order, half of the night was spent with a 500ml increase in dead space through a custom designed full face mask and the other half without it.¦RESULTS: Baseline data revealed two clearly distinct groups: one with severe sleep disordered breathing (n=5, AHI>30) and the other with moderate to no disordered breathing (n=7, AHI<30). DS markedly improved breathing in the first group (baseline vs DS): apnea hypopnea index (AHI) 70.3±25.8 vs 29.4±6.9 (p=0.013), oxygen desaturation index (ODI): 72.9±24.1/h vs 42.5±14.4 (p=0.031), whereas it had no significant effect in the second group or in the total population. Respiratory events were almost exclusively central apnea or hypopnea. Microarousal index, sleep efficiency, and sleep architecture remained unchanged with DS. A minor increase in mean PtcCO(2) (n=3) was observed with DS.¦CONCLUSION: A 500ml increase in dead space through a fitted mask may improve nocturnal breathing in mountaineers with severe altitude-induced sleep disordered breathing.

Cetuximab In Combination With Docetaxel In Patients (Pts) With Metastatic Castration Resistant (Mcrpc) And Docetaxel-Refractory Prostate Cancer: Final Analysis Of The Multicenter Phase Ii Trial Sakk 08/07

There is no registered treatment (ttr) for pts with mCRPC who have progressive disease during or shortly after docetaxel (doc). EGFR overexpression increases in prostate cancer during the course of the disease. We investigated efficacy and safety of the combination of the monoclonal EGFR antibody cetuximab (cet) and doc in pts with mCRPC who are doc-refractory. Methods: Pts with mCRPC progressing during or < 90 days after at least 12 weeks of doc were included. Ttr consisted of the same doc regimen as prior to progression (35mg/m2 d1,8,15 q4w or 75mg/m2 q3w) in combination with cet (400mg/m2 d1, then 250mg/m2 weekly). Primary endpoint was progression free survival (PFS) at 12 weeks defined as absence of PSA progression or progression of metastases (mets). Secondary endpoints included toxicity, PFS at 24 weeks, PSA response, response of measureable disease and overall survival. 35 pts were needed in a Simon's two stage optimal design with a power of 90% and a significance level of 5% in order to test PFS rate at 12 weeks of £10% vs ?30%. Results: 35 evaluable pts were enrolled at 15 Swiss centers between 7/08 and 9/09. Median follow up was 14.8 months. Confirmed PFS at 12 weeks was 34% (95%CI 19-52%), PFS at 24 weeks was 20% and overall survival was 12.0 months (95%CI 7.1 -15.6). 20% (7/35) had a confirmed decline in PSA ? 50% and 31% (11/35) had a confirmed PSA decline ? 30%. Of pts with measurable disease (n=24) PR, SD and PD at week 12 was 4%, 54% and 25%, respectively (17% not evaluable). 3/9 (33%) pts with PDduring last doc ttr before inclusion reached the primary endpoint compared to 7/18 (39%) with PR or SD to last doc. 54% of evaluable pts experienced grade 3 and 6% grade 4 toxicity. Discussion: The result of the primary endpoint was promising in this first trial to test cet in combination with doc in pts with docetaxel-refractory mCRPC. Because this goal was achieved in such a highly pretreated pts population it appears that inhibition of the EGFR pathway may play a more important and persistent role in the treatment of prostate cancer than perceived so far. Further research is therefore warranted. Disclosure: R. Cathomas: - Membership on advisory board for sanofi aventis (suisse) and Merck. S. Gillessen: - Membership in advisory board for Sanofi Aventis. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

Low-dose, simple, and fast grating-based X-ray phase-contrast imaging.

Phase sensitive X-ray imaging methods can provide substantially increased contrast over conventional absorption-based imaging and therefore new and otherwise inaccessible information. The use of gratings as optical elements in hard X-ray phase imaging overcomes some of the problems that have impaired the wider use of phase contrast in X-ray radiography and tomography. So far, to separate the phase information from other contributions detected with a grating interferometer, a phase-stepping approach has been considered, which implies the acquisition of multiple radiographic projections. Here we present an innovative, highly sensitive X-ray tomographic phase-contrast imaging approach based on grating interferometry, which extracts the phase-contrast signal without the need of phase stepping. Compared to the existing phase-stepping approach, the main advantages of this new method dubbed "reverse projection" are not only the significantly reduced delivered dose, without the degradation of the image quality, but also the much higher efficiency. The new technique sets the prerequisites for future fast and low-dose phase-contrast imaging methods, fundamental for imaging biological specimens and in vivo studies.

Cilengitide combined with standard treatment for patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma with methylated MGMT promoter (CENTRIC EORTC 26071-22072 study): a multicentre, randomised, open-label, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Cilengitide is a selective αvβ3 and αvβ5 integrin inhibitor. Data from phase 2 trials suggest that it has antitumour activity as a single agent in recurrent glioblastoma and in combination with standard temozolomide chemoradiotherapy in newly diagnosed glioblastoma (particularly in tumours with methylated MGMT promoter). We aimed to assess cilengitide combined with temozolomide chemoradiotherapy in patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma with methylated MGMT promoter. METHODS: In this multicentre, open-label, phase 3 study, we investigated the efficacy of cilengitide in patients from 146 study sites in 25 countries. Eligible patients (newly diagnosed, histologically proven supratentorial glioblastoma, methylated MGMT promoter, and age ≥18 years) were stratified for prognostic Radiation Therapy Oncology Group recursive partitioning analysis class and geographic region and centrally randomised in a 1:1 ratio with interactive voice response system to receive temozolomide chemoradiotherapy with cilengitide 2000 mg intravenously twice weekly (cilengitide group) or temozolomide chemoradiotherapy alone (control group). Patients and investigators were unmasked to treatment allocation. Maintenance temozolomide was given for up to six cycles, and cilengitide was given for up to 18 months or until disease progression or unacceptable toxic effects. The primary endpoint was overall survival. We analysed survival outcomes by intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00689221. FINDINGS: Overall, 3471 patients were screened. Of these patients, 3060 had tumour MGMT status tested; 926 patients had a methylated MGMT promoter, and 545 were randomly assigned to the cilengitide (n=272) or control groups (n=273) between Oct 31, 2008, and May 12, 2011. Median overall survival was 26·3 months (95% CI 23·8-28·8) in the cilengitide group and 26·3 months (23·9-34·7) in the control group (hazard ratio 1·02, 95% CI 0·81-1·29, p=0·86). None of the predefined clinical subgroups showed a benefit from cilengitide. We noted no overall additional toxic effects with cilengitide treatment. The most commonly reported adverse events of grade 3 or worse in the safety population were lymphopenia (31 [12%] in the cilengitide group vs 26 [10%] in the control group), thrombocytopenia (28 [11%] vs 46 [18%]), neutropenia (19 [7%] vs 24 [9%]), leucopenia (18 [7%] vs 20 [8%]), and convulsion (14 [5%] vs 15 [6%]). INTERPRETATION: The addition of cilengitide to temozolomide chemoradiotherapy did not improve outcomes; cilengitide will not be further developed as an anticancer drug. Nevertheless, integrins remain a potential treatment target for glioblastoma. FUNDING: Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany.

Potencialidad de la modelización state-space y el filtro de Kalman para el anàlisis regional : una aplicación para el índice de actividad industrial

El déficit existente a nuestro país con respecto a la disponibilidad de indicadores cuantitativos con los que llevar a término un análisis coyuntural de la actividad industrial regional ha abierto un debate centrado en el estudio de cuál es la metodología más adecuada para elaborar indicadores de estas características. Dentro de este marco, en este trabajo se presentan las principales conclusiones obtenidas en anteriores estudios (Clar, et. al., 1997a, 1997b y 1998) sobre la idoneidad de extender las metodologías que actualmente se están aplicando a las regiones españolas para elaborar indicadores de la actividad industrial mediante métodos indirectos. Estas conclusiones llevan a plantear una estrategia distinta a las que actualmente se vienen aplicando. En concreto, se propone (siguiendo a Israilevich y Kuttner, 1993) un modelo de variables latentes para estimar el indicador de la producción industrial regional. Este tipo de modelo puede especificarse en términos de un modelo statespace y estimarse mediante el filtro de Kalman. Para validar la metodología propuesta se estiman unos indicadores de acuerdo con ella para tres de las cuatro regiones españolas que disponen d¿un Índice de Producción Industrial (IPI) elaborado mediante el método directo (Andalucía, Asturias y el País Vasco) y se comparan con los IPIs publicados (oficiales). Los resultados obtenidos muestran el buen comportamiento de l¿estrategia propuesta, abriendo así una línea de trabajo con la que subsanar el déficit al que se hacía referencia anteriormente

p21 as a transcriptional co-repressor of S-phase and mitotic control genes.

It has been previously described that p21 functions not only as a CDK inhibitor but also as a transcriptional co-repressor in some systems. To investigate the roles of p21 in transcriptional control, we studied the gene expression changes in two human cell systems. Using a human leukemia cell line (K562) with inducible p21 expression and human primary keratinocytes with adenoviral-mediated p21 expression, we carried out microarray-based gene expression profiling. We found that p21 rapidly and strongly repressed the mRNA levels of a number of genes involved in cell cycle and mitosis. One of the most strongly down-regulated genes was CCNE2 (cyclin E2 gene). Mutational analysis in K562 cells showed that the N-terminal region of p21 is required for repression of gene expression of CCNE2 and other genes. Chromatin immunoprecipitation assays indicated that p21 was bound to human CCNE2 and other p21-repressed genes gene in the vicinity of the transcription start site. Moreover, p21 repressed human CCNE2 promoter-luciferase constructs in K562 cells. Bioinformatic analysis revealed that the CDE motif is present in most of the promoters of the p21-regulated genes. Altogether, the results suggest that p21 exerts a repressive effect on a relevant number of genes controlling S phase and mitosis. Thus, p21 activity as inhibitor of cell cycle progression would be mediated not only by the inhibition of CDKs but also by the transcriptional down-regulation of key genes.

Concurrent or Sequential Adjuvant Hormonoradiotherapy after Conservative Surgery for Early-Stage Breast Cancer: Clinical Results of the CO-HO-RT Phase II Randomized Trial.

Purpose: Letrozole (LET) has recently been shown to be superior to tamoxifen for postmenopausal patients (pts). In addition, LET radiosensitizes breast cancer cells in vitro. We conducted a phase II randomized study to evaluate concurrent and sequential radiotherapy (RT)-LET in the adjuvant setting. We present here clinical results with a minimum follow-up of 24 months. Patients and Methods: Postmenopausal pts with early-stage breast cancer were randomized after conservative surgery to either: A) concurrent RT-LET (LET started 3 weeks before the first day of RT) or B) sequential RT-LET (LET started 3 weeks after the end of RT). Whole breast RT was delivered to a total dose of 50 Gy. A 10-16 Gy boost was allowed according to age and pathological prognostic factors. Pts were stratified by center, adjuvant chemotherapy, boost, and radiation-induced CD8 apoptosis (RILA). RILA was performed before RT as previously published (Ozsahin et al. Clin Cancer Res, 2005). An independent monitoring committee reviewed individual safety data. Skin toxicities were evaluated by two different clinicians at each medical visit (CTCAE v3.0). Lung CT-scan and functional pulmonary tests were performed regularly. DNA samples were screened for SNPs in candidate genes as recently published (Azria et al., Clin Cancer Res, 2008). Results: A total of 150 pts were randomized between 01/05 and 02/07. Median follow-up is 26 months (range, 3-40 months). No statistical differences were identified between the two arms in terms of mean age; initial TNM; median surgical bed volume; post surgical breast volume. Chemotherapy and RT boost were delivered in 19% and 38% of pts, respectively. Nodes received 50 Gy in 23% of patients without differences between both arms. During RT and within the first 6 weeks after RT, 10 patients (6.7%) presented grade 3 acute skin dermatitis during RT but no differences were observed between both arms (4 and 6 patients in arm A and B, respectively). At 26 month of follow-up, grade 2 and more radiation-induced subcutaneous fibrosis (RISCF) was present in 4 patients (3%) without any difference between arm A (n = 2) and B (n = 2), p=0.93. In both arms, all patients that presented a RICSF had a RILA lower than 16%. Sensitivity and specificity were 100% and 39%, respectively.No acute lung toxicities were observed and quality of life was good to excellent for all patients.SNPs analyses are still on-going (Pr Rosenstein, NY). Conclusion: Acute and early late grade 2 dermatitis were similar in both arms. The only factor that influenced RISCF was a low radiation-induced lymphocyte apoptosis yield. We confirmed prospectively the capacity of RILA for identifying hypersensitive patients to radiation. Indeed, patients with RILA superior to 16% did not present late effects to radiation and confirmed the first prospective trial we published in 2005 (Ozsahin et al., Clin Cancer Res).

Variational analysis of the Gross-Neveu model in an S^1 space

The Gross-Neveu model in an S^1 space is analyzed by means of a variational technique: the Gaussian effective potential. By making the proper connection with previous exact results at finite temperature, we show that this technique is able to describe the phase transition occurring in this model. We also make some remarks about the appropriate treatment of Grassmann variables in variational approaches.

Effects of radiotherapy with concomitant and adjuvant temozolomide versus radiotherapy alone on survival in glioblastoma in a randomised phase III study: 5-year analysis of the EORTC-NCIC trial.

BACKGROUND: In 2004, a randomised phase III trial by the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) and National Cancer Institute of Canada Clinical Trials Group (NCIC) reported improved median and 2-year survival for patients with glioblastoma treated with concomitant and adjuvant temozolomide and radiotherapy. We report the final results with a median follow-up of more than 5 years. METHODS: Adult patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma were randomly assigned to receive either standard radiotherapy or identical radiotherapy with concomitant temozolomide followed by up to six cycles of adjuvant temozolomide. The methylation status of the methyl-guanine methyl transferase gene, MGMT, was determined retrospectively from the tumour tissue of 206 patients. The primary endpoint was overall survival. Analyses were by intention to treat. This trial is registered with Clinicaltrials.gov, number NCT00006353. FINDINGS: Between Aug 17, 2000, and March 22, 2002, 573 patients were assigned to treatment. 278 (97%) of 286 patients in the radiotherapy alone group and 254 (89%) of 287 in the combined-treatment group died during 5 years of follow-up. Overall survival was 27.2% (95% CI 22.2-32.5) at 2 years, 16.0% (12.0-20.6) at 3 years, 12.1% (8.5-16.4) at 4 years, and 9.8% (6.4-14.0) at 5 years with temozolomide, versus 10.9% (7.6-14.8), 4.4% (2.4-7.2), 3.0% (1.4-5.7), and 1.9% (0.6-4.4) with radiotherapy alone (hazard ratio 0.6, 95% CI 0.5-0.7; p<0.0001). A benefit of combined therapy was recorded in all clinical prognostic subgroups, including patients aged 60-70 years. Methylation of the MGMT promoter was the strongest predictor for outcome and benefit from temozolomide chemotherapy. INTERPRETATION: Benefits of adjuvant temozolomide with radiotherapy lasted throughout 5 years of follow-up. A few patients in favourable prognostic categories survive longer than 5 years. MGMT methylation status identifies patients most likely to benefit from the addition of temozolomide. FUNDING: EORTC, NCIC, Nélia and Amadeo Barletta Foundation, Schering-Plough.

The immune space: a concept and template for rationalizing vaccine development.

Abstract Empirical testing of candidate vaccines has led to the successful development of a number of lifesaving vaccines. The advent of new tools to manipulate antigens and new methods and vectors for vaccine delivery has led to a veritable explosion of potential vaccine designs. As a result, selection of candidate vaccines suitable for large-scale efficacy testing has become more challenging. This is especially true for diseases such as dengue, HIV, and tuberculosis where there is no validated animal model or correlate of immune protection. Establishing guidelines for the selection of vaccine candidates for advanced testing has become a necessity. A number of factors could be considered in making these decisions, including, for example, safety in animal and human studies, immune profile, protection in animal studies, production processes with product quality and stability, availability of resources, and estimated cost of goods. The "immune space template" proposed here provides a standardized approach by which the quality, level, and durability of immune responses elicited in early human trials by a candidate vaccine can be described. The immune response profile will demonstrate if and how the candidate is unique relative to other candidates, especially those that have preceded it into efficacy testing and, thus, what new information concerning potential immune correlates could be learned from an efficacy trial. A thorough characterization of immune responses should also provide insight into a developer's rationale for the vaccine's proposed mechanism of action. HIV vaccine researchers plan to include this general approach in up-selecting candidates for the next large efficacy trial. This "immune space" approach may also be applicable to other vaccine development endeavors where correlates of vaccine-induced immune protection remain unknown.

Durable, Cost-Effective Pavement Markings Phase I: Synthesis of Current Research, June 2001

Pavement marking technology is a continually evolving subject. There are numerous types of materials used in the field today, including (but not limited to) paint, epoxy, tape, and thermoplastic. Each material has its own set of unique characteristics related to durability, retro reflectivity, installation cost, and life-cycle cost. The Iowa Highway Research Board was interested in investigating the possibility of developing an ongoing program to evaluate the various products used in pavement marking. This potential program would maintain a database of performance and cost information to assist state and local agencies in determining which materials and placement methods are most appropriate for their use. The Center for Transportation Research and Education at Iowa State University has completed Phase I of this research: to identify the current practice and experiences from around the United States to recommend a further course of action for the State of Iowa. There has been a significant amount of research completed in the last several years. Research from Michigan, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Ohio, and Alaska all had some common findings: white markings are more retro reflective than yellow markings; paint is by-and-large the least expensive material; paint tends to degrade faster than other materials; thermoplastic and tapes had higher retro reflective characteristics. Perhaps the most significant program going on in the area of pavement markings is the National Transportation Product Evaluation Program (NTPEP). This is an ongoing research program jointly conducted by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials and its member states. Field and lab tests on numerous types of pavement marking materials are being conducted at sites representing four climatological areas. These results are published periodically for use by any jurisdiction interested in pavement marking materials performance.At this time, it is recommended that the State of Iowa not embark on a test deck evaluation program. Instead, close attention should be paid to the ongoing evaluations of the NTPEP program. Materials that fare well on the NTPEP test de cks should be considered for further field studies in Iowa.

Pairing in a two-component ultracold Fermi gas: Phases with broken-space symmetries

We explore the phase diagram of a two-component ultracold atomic Fermi gas interacting with zero-range forces in the limit of weak coupling. We focus on the dependence of the pairing gap and the free energy on the variations in the number densities of the two species while the total density of the system is held fixed. As the density asymmetry is increased, the system exhibits a transition from a homogenous Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer (BCS) phase to phases with spontaneously broken global space symmetries. One such realization is the deformed Fermi surface superfluidity (DFS) which exploits the possibility of deforming the Fermi surfaces of the species into ellipsoidal form at zero total momentum of Cooper pairs. The critical asymmetries at which the transition from DFS to the unpaired state occurs are larger than those for the BCS phase. In this precritical region the DFS phase lowers the pairing energy of the asymmetric BCS state. We compare quantitatively the DFS phase to another realization of superconducting phases with broken translational symmetry: the single-plane-wave Larkin-Ovchinnikov-Fulde-Ferrell phase, which is characterized by a nonvanishing center-of-mass momentum of the Cooper pairs. The possibility of the detection of the DFS phase in the time-of-flight experiments is discussed and quantified for the case of 6Li atoms trapped in two different hyperfine states.

Universality in models for disorder induced phase transitions

We have systematically analyzed six different reticular models with quenched disorder and no thermal fluctuations exhibiting a field-driven first-order phase transition. We have studied the nonequilibrium transition, appearing when varying the amount of disorder, characterized by the change from a discontinuous hysteresis cycle (with one or more large avalanches) to a smooth one (with only tiny avalanches). We have computed critical exponents using finite size scaling techniques and shown that they are consistent with universal values depending only on the space dimensionality d.

Phase I study of sorafenib combined with radiation therapy and temozolomide as first-line treatment of high-grade glioma.

BACKGROUND: Sorafenib (Sb) is a multiple kinase inhibitor targeting both tumour cell proliferation and angiogenesis that may further act as a potent radiosensitizer by arresting cells in the most radiosensitive cell cycle phase. This phase I open-label, noncontrolled dose escalation study was performed to determine the safety and maximum tolerated dose (MTD) of Sb in combination with radiation therapy (RT) and temozolomide (TMZ) in 17 patients with newly diagnosed high-grade glioma. METHODS: Patients were treated with RT (60 Gy in 2 Gy fractions) combined with TMZ 75 mg m(-2) daily, and Sb administered at three dose levels (200 mg daily, 200 mg BID, and 400 mg BID) starting on day 8 of RT. Thirty days after the end of RT, patients received monthly TMZ (150-200 mg m(-2) D1-5/28) and Sb (400 mg BID). Pharmacokinetic (PK) analyses were performed on day 8 (TMZ) and on day 21 (TMZ&Sb) (Clinicaltrials ID: NCT00884416). RESULTS: The MTD of Sb was established at 200 mg BID. Dose-limiting toxicities included thrombocytopenia (two patients), diarrhoea (one patient) and hypercholesterolaemia (one patient). Sb administration did not affect the mean area under the curve(0-24) and mean Cmax of TMZ and its metabolite 5-amino-imidazole-4-carboxamide (AIC). Tmax of both TMZ and AIC was delayed from 0.75 (TMZ alone) to 1.5 h (combined TMZ/Sb). The median progression-free survival was 7.9 months (95% confidence interval (CI): 5.4-14.55), and the median overall survival was 17.8 months (95% CI: 14.7-25.6). CONCLUSIONS: Although Sb can be combined with RT and TMZ, significant side effects and moderate outcome results do not support further clinical development in malignant gliomas. The robust PK data of the TMZ/Sb combination could be useful in other cancer settings.