Unconditional transfers goes to health? Evidence from Brazilian municipalities

This study assesses the impact of unconditional transfer resources on the health indicators of Brazilian municipalities. This transfer refers to the Participation Fund of Municipalities (FPM) where at least 15% of its value should be spent on public health. Based on a discontinuity of the rules of transfers, we explore Regression Discontinuous Design for the years 2002 to 2010, and find: (i) no significant effect of FPM on mortality reduction; (ii) a robust and significant reduction in morbidity, treated municipalities – on the right side of thresholds – on average have a per capita rate of morbidity 0.00821% lower than those on the left side of the cutoff points; (iii) the mechanisms through which a reduction on morbidity could be operated would be due to estimated increases in preventive measures such as consultations and medical and nurses visits, these were bigger for the treated group in, respectively, 0.32%, 0.038% and 0.039%.

Dynamic coordination among heterogeneous agents

We study a dynamic model of coordination with timing frictions and payoff heterogeneity. There is a unique equilibrium, characterized by thresholds that determine the choices of each type of agent. We characterize equilibrium for the limiting cases of vanishing timing frictions and vanishing shocks to fundamentals. A lot of conformity emerges: despite payoff heterogeneity, agents’ equilibrium thresholds partially coincide as long as there exists a set of beliefs that would make this coincidence possible – though they never fully coincide. In case of vanishing frictions, the economy behaves almost as if all agents were equal to an average type. Conformity is not inefficient. The efficient solution would have agents following others even more often and giving less importance to the fundamental

Revamping asset quality to maximize income in office markets

We use a unique dataset of c. 2200 commercial towers located in the city of Sao Paulo from 2005:Q3 to 2014:Q3 to study the relationship between asset quality and potential income in different niches of the office market. Our evidence suggests a rent premium in the market for larger office space (corporate) and that building quality is more relevant in this segment. We hypothesize such difference is due to larger competition and commoditization in the market for smaller office space (office) as income in this segment tends to be insensible to different levels of asset quality when we control for spatial variation. We also find that rent premiums associated with building class are monotonically increasing, but not strictly positive across certain quality thresholds. Thus, landlords and developers should take into consideration the market niche and acceptable target building class levels when designing their investment plans in order to maximize income .

Quasi-experimental estimates of fiscal spillovers and spatial interactions among Brazilian cities

Nós usamos a metodologia de Regressões em Descontinuidade (RDD) para estimar o efeito causal do Fundo de Participação dos Municípios (FPM) recebido por um município sobre características dos municípios vizinhos, considerando uma variedade de temas: finanças públicas, educação, saúde e resultados eleitorais. Nós exploramos a regra que gera uma variação exógena da transferência em munícipios próximos às descontinuidades no repasse do fundo de acordo com faixas de população. Nossa principal contribuição é estimar separadamente e em conjunto o efeito spillover e o efeito direto do FPM, considerando ambos municípios vizinhos ou apenas um deles próximos às mudanças de faixa. Dessa forma, conseguimos entender melhor a interação entre municípios vizinhos quando há uma correlação na probabilidade de receber uma transferência federal. Nós mostramos que a estimativa do efeito direto do FPM sobre os gastos locais diminui em cerca de 20% quando controlamos pelo spillover do vizinho, que em geral é positivo, com exceção dos gastos em saúde e saneamento. Nós estimamos um efeito positivo da transferência sobre notas na prova Brasil e taxas de aprovação escolares em municípios vizinhos e na rede estadual do ensino fundamental. Por outro lado, o recebimento de FPM por municípios vizinhos de pequena população reduz o provimento de bens e serviços de saúde em cidades próximas e maiores, o que pode ocorrer devido à redução da demanda por serviços de saúde. A piora de alguns indicadores globais de saúde é um indício, no entanto, de que podem existir problemas de coordenação para os prefeitos reterem seus gastos em saúde. De fato, quando controlamos pela margem de vitória nas eleições municipais e consideramos apenas cidades vizinhas com prefeitos de partido diferentes, o efeito spillover é maior em magnitude, o que indica que incentivos políticos são importantes para explicar a subprovisão de serviços em saúde, por um lado, e o aumento da provisão de bens em educação, por outro. Nós também constatamos um efeito positivo do FPM sobre votos para o partido do governo federal nas eleições municipais e nacionais, e grande parte desse efeito é explicado pelo spillover do FPM de cidades vizinhas, mostrando que cidades com dependência econômica do governo federal se tornam a base de sustentação e apoio político desse governo. Por fim, nós encontramos um efeito ambíguo do aumento de receita devido ao FPM sobre a competição eleitoral nas eleições municipais, com uma queda da margem de vitória do primeiro colocado e uma redução do número de candidatos, o que pode ser explicado pelo aumento do custo fixo das campanhas locais.

Spatial spillovers and political coordination in public health provision

We estimate the impact of the main unconditional federal grant (Fundo de Participaçãodos Municípios - FPM) to Brazilian municipalities as well as its spillover from the neighboring cities on local health outcomes. We consider data from 2002 to 2007 (Brollo et al, 2013) and explore the FPM distribution rule according to population brackets to apply a fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) using cities near the thresholds. In elasticity terms, we nd a reduction on infant mortality rate (-0.18) and on morbidity rate (- 0.41), except in the largest cities of our sample. We also nd an increase on the access to the main program of visiting the vulnerable families, the Family Health Program (Programa Sa ude da Família - PSF). The e ects are stronger for the smallest cities of our sample and we nd increase: (i) On the percentage of residents enrolled in the program (0.36), (ii) On the per capita number of PSF visits (1.59), and (iii) On the per capita number of PSF visits with a doctor (1.8) and nurse (2). After we control for the FPM spillover using neighboring cities near diferent thresholds, our results show that the reduction in morbidity and mortality is largely due to the spillover e ect, but there are negative spillover on preventive actions, as PSF doctors visits and vaccination. Finally, the negative spillover e ect on health resources may be due free riding or political coordination problems, as in the case of the number of hospital beds, but also due to to competition for health professionals, as in the case of number of doctors (-0.35 and -0.87, respectively), specially general practitioners and surgeons (-1.84 and -2.45).

Statistical modelling of extreme rainfall in Madeira Island

Extreme rainfall events have triggered a significant number of flash floods in Madeira Island along its past and recent history. Madeira is a volcanic island where the spatial rainfall distribution is strongly affected by its rugged topography. In this thesis, annual maximum of daily rainfall data from 25 rain gauge stations located in Madeira Island were modelled by the generalised extreme value distribution. Also, the hypothesis of a Gumbel distribution was tested by two methods and the existence of a linear trend in both distributions parameters was analysed. Estimates for the 50– and 100–year return levels were also obtained. Still in an univariate context, the assumption that a distribution function belongs to the domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution for monthly maximum rainfall data was tested for the rainy season. The available data was then analysed in order to find the most suitable domain of attraction for the sampled distribution. In a different approach, a search for thresholds was also performed for daily rainfall values through a graphical analysis. In a multivariate context, a study was made on the dependence between extreme rainfall values from the considered stations based on Kendall’s τ measure. This study suggests the influence of factors such as altitude, slope orientation, distance between stations and their proximity of the sea on the spatial distribution of extreme rainfall. Groups of three pairwise associated stations were also obtained and an adjustment was made to a family of extreme value copulas involving the Marshall–Olkin family, whose parameters can be written as a function of Kendall’s τ association measures of the obtained pairs.

Optimisation of stir bar sorptive extraction and liquid desorption combined with large volume injection-gas chromatography–quadrupole mass spectrometry for the determination of volatile compounds in wines

Stir bar sorptive extraction and liquid desorption followed by large volume injection coupled to gas chromatography–quadrupole mass spectrometry (SBSE–LD/LVI-GC–qMS) had been applied for the determination of volatiles in wines. The methodology was optimised in terms of extraction time and influence of ethanol in the matrix; LD conditions, and instrumental settings. The optimisation was carried out by using 10 standards representative of the main chemical families of wine, i.e. guaiazulene, E,E-farnesol, β-ionone, geranylacetone, ethyl decanoate, β-citronellol, 2-phenylethanol, linalool, hexyl acetate and hexanol. The methodology shows good linearity over the concentration range tested, with correlation coefficients higher than 0.9821, a good reproducibility was attained (8.9–17.8%), and low detection limits were achieved for nine volatile compounds (0.05–9.09 μg L−1), with the exception of 2-phenylethanol due to low recovery by SBSE. The analytical ability of the SBSE–LD/LVI-GC–qMS methodology was tested in real matrices, such as sparkling and table wines using analytical curves prepared by using the 10 standards where each one was applied to quantify the structurally related compounds. This methodology allowed, in a single run, the quantification of 67 wine volatiles at levels lower than their respective olfactory thresholds. The proposed methodology demonstrated to be easy to work-up, reliable, sensitive and with low sample requirement to monitor the volatile fraction of wine.

Análise de modelos geológicos utilizando percolação dinâmica

In the present study we elaborated algorithms by using concepts from percolation theory which analyze the connectivity conditions in geological models of petroleum reservoirs. From the petrophysical parameters such as permeability, porosity, transmittivity and others, which may be generated by any statistical process, it is possible to determine the portion of the model with more connected cells, what the interconnected wells are, and the critical path between injector and source wells. This allows to classify the reservoir according to the modeled petrophysical parameters. This also make it possible to determine the percentage of the reservoir to which each well is connected. Generally, the connected regions and the respective minima and/or maxima in the occurrence of the petrophysical parameters studied constitute a good manner to characterize a reservoir volumetrically. Therefore, the algorithms allow to optimize the positioning of wells, offering a preview of the general conditions of the given model s connectivity. The intent is not to evaluate geological models, but to show how to interpret the deposits, how their petrophysical characteristics are spatially distributed, and how the connections between the several parts of the system are resolved, showing their critical paths and backbones. The execution of these algorithms allows us to know the properties of the model s connectivity before the work on reservoir flux simulation is started

Estudo de adsorvente obtido de terras diatomáceas para remoção de metais pesados em águas produzidas: processamento, caracterização e dinâmica em leito fixo

The acceleration of industrial growth in recent decades on all continents aroused the interest of the companies to counter the impacts produced on the environment, spurred primarily by major disasters in the petroleum industry. In this context, the water produced is responsible for the largest volume of effluent from the production and extraction of oil and natural gas. This effluent has in its composition some critical components such as inorganic salts, heavy metals (Fe, Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, ), presence of oil and chemicals added in the various production processes. In response to impact, have been triggered by research alternative adsorbent materials for water treatment and water produced, in order to removing oils and acids and heavy metals. Many surveys of diatomaceous earth (diatomite) in Brazil involve studies on the physico-chemical, mineral deposits, extraction, processing and applications. The official estimated Jazi are around 2.5 million tonnes, the main located in the states of Bahia (44%) and Rio Grande do Norte (37,4%). Moreover, these two states appear as large offshore producers, earning a prominent role in research of adsorbents such as diatomite for treatment of water produced. Its main applications are as an agent of filtration, adsorption of oils and greases, industrial load and thermal insulator. The objective of this work was the processing and characterization of diatomite diatomaceous earth obtained from the municipality of Macaíba-RN (known locally as tabatinga) as a low cost regenerative adsorbent for removal of heavy metals in the application of water produced treatment. In this work we adopted a methodology for batch processing, practiced by small businesses located in producing regions of Brazil. The characterization was made by X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and specific surface area (BET). Research conducted showed that the improvement process used was effective for small volume production of diatomite concentrated. The diatomite obtained was treated by calcination at temperature of 900 oC for 2 hours, with and without fluxing Na2CO3 (4%), according to optimal results in the literature. Column adsorption experiments were conducted to percolation of the in nature, calcined and calcined fluxing diatomites. Effluent was used as a saline solution containing ions of Cu, Zn, Na, Ca and Mg simulating the composition of produced waters in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The breakthrough curves for simultaneous removal of copper ions and zinc as a result, 84.3% for calcined diatomite and diatomite with 97.3 % for fluxing. The calcined fluxing diatomite was more efficient permeability through the bed and removal of copper and zinc ions. The fresh diatomite had trouble with the permeability through the bed under the conditions tested, compared with the other obtained diatomite. The results are presented as promising for application in the petroleum industry

Estudo das propriedades críticas do processo epidêmico por par com difusão de pares

The pair contact process - PCP is a nonequilibrium stochastic model which, like the basic contact process - CP, exhibits a phase transition to an absorbing state. While the absorbing state CP corresponds to a unique configuration (empty lattice), the PCP process infinitely many. Numerical and theoretical studies, nevertheless, indicate that the PCP belongs to the same universality class as the CP (direct percolation class), but with anomalies in the critical spreading dynamics. An infinite number of absorbing configurations arise in the PCP because all process (creation and annihilation) require a nearest-neighbor pair of particles. The diffusive pair contact process - PCPD) was proposed by Grassberger in 1982. But the interest in the problem follows its rediscovery by the Langevin description. On the basis of numerical results and renormalization group arguments, Carlon, Henkel and Schollwöck (2001), suggested that certain critical exponents in the PCPD had values similar to those of the party-conserving - PC class. On the other hand, Hinrichsen (2001), reported simulation results inconsistent with the PC class, and proposed that the PCPD belongs to a new universality class. The controversy regarding the universality of the PCPD remains unresolved. In the PCPD, a nearest-neighbor pair of particles is necessary for the process of creation and annihilation, but the particles to diffuse individually. In this work we study the PCPD with diffusion of pair, in which isolated particles cannot move; a nearest-neighbor pair diffuses as a unit. Using quasistationary simulation, we determined with good precision the critical point and critical exponents for three values of the diffusive probability: D=0.5 and D=0.1. For D=0.5: PC=0.89007(3), β/v=0.252(9), z=1.573(1), =1.10(2), m=1.1758(24). For D=0.1: PC=0.9172(1), β/v=0.252(9), z=1.579(11), =1.11(4), m=1.173(4)

Transfer function-noise modeling and spatial interpolation to evaluate the risk of extreme (shallow) water-table levels in the Brazilian Cerrados

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Influência do resíduo de colheita de cana-de-açúcar sem queima sobre a eficiência dos herbicidas imazapic e imazapic + pendimethalin

Os resíduos deixados sobre o solo por ocasião da colheita mecanizada da cana-de-açúcar podem constituir-se em uma barreira física para a ação dos herbicidas no controle de plantas daninhas, quando aplicados em pré-emergência destas plantas sobre a palha da cana. em virtude disso, o presente trabalho teve por objetivos analisar e quantificar a interferência dessa camada de palha sobre o solo na ação dos herbicidas imazapic e imazapic + pendimethalin no controle de plantas daninhas em áreas onde a cana-de-açúcar foi colhida mecanicamente sem a queima da palhada previamente à colheita. Foram realizados dois ensaios simultâneos: um com a retirada da palha dois dias após a aplicação dos herbicidas e o outro com a manutenção desta, ambos conduzidos em casa de vegetação. O imazapic isolado foi aplicado nas dosagens de 0, 122,5 e 147 g i.a.ha-1 e em mistura com pendimethalin na dosagem de 75 + 1500 g i.a.ha-1, com simulação de chuvas nas intensidades de 30, 60 e 90 mm. Após análise dos resultados de biomassa seca, altura e número de folhas das plantas de Sorghum bicolor e Cyperus rotundus, além de nota visual e biomassa seca de Panicum maximum, Brachiaria plantaginea, Digitaria horizontalis, Amaranthus viridis, Ipomoea grandifolia e Brachiaria decumbens, constatou-se eficiência proporcional dos herbicidas à dosagem utilizada, independentemente da presença da palha, à exceção de Ipomoea grandifolia e Brachiaria decumbens, além de haver menor controle nos tratamentos submetidos à chuva de 90 mm. Esses resultados indicam boas perspectivas quanto à aplicação destes herbicidas em áreas de colheita mecanizada de cana-de-açúcar sem queima, para controle de plantas daninhas em condições de pré-emergência.

Lixiviação de sulfentrazone e amicarbazone em colunas de solo com adição de óleo mineral

O presente trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar a lixiviação dos herbicidas sulfentrazone e amicarbazone, com e sem óleo mineral, em área de plantio de cana-de-açúcar sobre um Latossolo Vermelho-Escuro, por meio de colunas de solo. Para avaliação da lixiviação, após acumuladas as precipitações de 35, 67 e 106 mm, tubos de PVC de 10 cm de diâmetro, seccionados longitudinalmente, foram enterrados até a profundidade de 35 cm, procurando-se manter a estrutura original do solo. Os tubos foram retirados, separados em suas metades e acondicionados em casa de vegetação, onde se semearam as plantas-teste sorgo (Sorghum bicolor) e corda-de-viola (Ipomoea nil) longitudinalmente ao longo do perfil de cada metade dos tubos. O delineamento experimental utilizado foi o de blocos ao acaso em esquema de parcelas subdivididas, com quatro repetições. As parcelas consistiram da aplicação dos dois herbicidas, adicionados ou não de adjuvante, e uma testemunha sem herbicida. Nas subparcelas estudaram-se as profundidades de percolação (0,0-2,5; 2,5-5,0; 5,0-10; 10-15; 15-20; 20-25; 25-30; e 30-35 cm). Aos 20 dias após a semeadura, determinou-se a matéria seca das plântulas. Observou-se que o sulfentrazone lixiviou até 10 cm de profundidade, mesmo com 106 mm de precipitação, sem efeito diferenciado do óleo. Os efeitos foram mais pronunciados para o sorgo. O amicarbazone não interferiu na matéria seca das plântulas de sorgo. Quanto à corda-de-viola, o herbicida sob precipitação de 35 mm reduziu o desenvolvimento das plântulas, independentemente da profundidade e sem efeito diferenciado do óleo; com 67 mm de precipitação, o herbicida lixiviou pelo solo, e o óleo mineral o manteve na camada mais superficial. Com 106 mm, o herbicida foi totalmente lixiviado e não se constatou efeito do óleo.

Biologia de Leptopharsa heveae Drake & Poor (Heteroptera: Tingidae) e a relação de suas exigências térmicas com a flutuação populacional em seringueira

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Condutividade elétrica da solução nutritiva para o cultivo do crisântemo em vaso

Em se tratando do crisântemo de vaso, que constitui relevante contribuição à atividade de plantas ornamentais, ainda há necessidade de uma recomendação consistente sobre a condutividade elétrica (CE) da solução nutritiva para seu cultivo. Nesse sentido, realizou-se um experimento em ambiente protegido, objetivando avaliar o crescimento do crisântemo cv. Miramar cultivado em vaso, em função da CE da solução nutritiva e da lixiviação de sais do substrato. O delineamento experimental foi em blocos casualizados, com quatro repetições; os tratamentos foram distribuídos em esquema fatorial 5 x 2, referentes aos valores de CE da solução nutritiva (2,1; 2,8; 3,5; 4,2; e 4,9 dS m-1), em substrato com e sem lavagem para lixiviação dos sais. O aumento da CE inibiu o crescimento e desempenho vegetativo, mas estimulou o diâmetro da haste. A lixiviação dos sais estimulou, exceto quanto ao diâmetro da haste, o maior crescimento avaliado pelas demais variáveis fitotécnicas. A CE de 2,1 dS m-1 possibilita a produção de crisântemo dentro de padrões qualitativos de comercialização, mediante lixiviação periódica do substrato.