A spectral-based cusum test of evolutionary change

We develop a test of evolutionary change that incorporates a null hypothesis of homogeneity, which encompasses time invariance in the variance and autocovariance structure of residuals from estimated econometric relationships. The test framework is based on examining whether shifts in spectral decomposition between two frames of data are significant. Rejection of the null hypothesis will point not only to weak nonstationarity but to shifts in the structure of the second-order moments of the limiting distribution of the random process. This would indicate that the second-order properties of any underlying attractor set has changed in a statistically significant way, pointing to the presence of evolutionary change. A demonstration of the test's applicability to a real-world macroeconomic problem is accomplished by applying the test to the Australian Building Society Deposits (ABSD) model.

Large amplitude folding in finely layered viscoelastic rock structures

We analyze folding phenomena in finely layered viscoelastic rock. Fine is meant in the sense that the thickness of each layer is considerably smaller than characteristic structural dimensions. For this purpose we derive constitutive relations and apply a computational simulation scheme (a finite-element based particle advection scheme; see MORESI et al., 2001) suitable for problems involving very large deformations of layered viscous and viscoelastic rocks. An algorithm for the time integration of the governing equations as well as details of the finite-element implementation is also given. We then consider buckling instabilities in a finite, rectangular domain. Embedded within this domain, parallel to the longer dimension we consider a stiff, layered plate. The domain is compressed along the layer axis by prescribing velocities along the sides. First, for the viscous limit we consider the response to a series of harmonic perturbations of the director orientation. The Fourier spectra of the initial folding velocity are compared for different viscosity ratios. Turning to the nonlinear regime we analyze viscoelastic folding histories up to 40% shortening. The effect of layering manifests itself in that appreciable buckling instabilities are obtained at much lower viscosity ratios (1:10) as is required for the buckling of isotropic plates (1:500). The wavelength induced by the initial harmonic perturbation of the director orientation seems to be persistent. In the section of the parameter space considered here elasticity seems to delay or inhibit the occurrence of a second, larger wavelength. Finally, in a linear instability analysis we undertake a brief excursion into the potential role of couple stresses on the folding process. The linear instability analysis also provides insight into the expected modes of deformation at the onset of instability, and the different regimes of behavior one might expect to observe.

A preliminary phylogeny of the scale insects (Hemiptera : Sternorrhyncha : Coccoidea) based on nuclear small-subunit ribosomal DNA

Scale insects (Hemiptera: Sternorrhyncha: Coccoidea) are a speciose and morphologically specialized group of plant-feeding bugs in which evolutionary relationships and thus higher classification are controversial. Sequences derived from nuclear small-subunit ribosomal DNA were used to generate a preliminary molecular phylogeny for the Coccoidea based on 39 species representing 14 putative families. Monophyly of the archaeococcoids (comprising Ortheziidae, Margarodidae sensu lato, and Phenacoleachia) was equivocal, whereas monophyly of the neococcoids was supported. Putoidae, represented by Puto yuccae, was found to be outside the remainder of the neococcoid clade. These data are consistent with a single origin (in the ancestor of the neococcoid clade) of a chromosome system involving paternal genome elimination in males. Pseudococcidae (mealybugs) appear to be sister to the rest of the neococcoids and there are indications that Coccidae (soft scales) and Kerriidae (lac scales) are sister taxa. The Eriococcidae (felt scales) was not recovered as a monophyletic group and the eriococcid genus Eriococcus sensu lato was polyphyletic. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

An agent-based approach to modelling driver route choice behaviour under the influence of real-time information

This paper presents an agent-based approach to modelling individual driver behaviour under the influence of real-time traffic information. The driver behaviour models developed in this study are based on a behavioural survey of drivers which was conducted on a congested commuting corridor in Brisbane, Australia. Commuters' responses to travel information were analysed and a number of discrete choice models were developed to determine the factors influencing drivers' behaviour and their propensity to change route and adjust travel patterns. Based on the results obtained from the behavioural survey, the agent behaviour parameters which define driver characteristics, knowledge and preferences were identified and their values determined. A case study implementing a simple agent-based route choice decision model within a microscopic traffic simulation tool is also presented. Driver-vehicle units (DVUs) were modelled as autonomous software components that can each be assigned a set of goals to achieve and a database of knowledge comprising certain beliefs, intentions and preferences concerning the driving task. Each DVU provided route choice decision-making capabilities, based on perception of its environment, that were similar to the described intentions of the driver it represented. The case study clearly demonstrated the feasibility of the approach and the potential to develop more complex driver behavioural dynamics based on the belief-desire-intention agent architecture. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Finite-difference time-domain-based studies of MRI pulsed field gradient-induced eddy currents inside the human body

In modern magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), patients are exposed to strong, rapidly switching magnetic gradient fields that, in extreme cases, may be able to elicit nerve stimulation. This paper presents theoretical investigations into the spatial distribution of induced current inside human tissues caused by pulsed z-gradient fields. A variety of gradient waveforms have been studied. The simulations are based on a new, high-definition, finite-difference time-domain method and a realistic inhomogeneous 10-mm resolution human body model with appropriate tissue parameters. it was found that the eddy current densities are affected not only by the pulse sequences but by many parameters such as the position of the body inside the gradient set, the local biological material properties and the geometry of the body. The discussion contains a comparison of these results with previous results found in the literature. This study and the new methods presented herein will help to further investigate the biological effects caused by the switched gradient fields in a MRI scan. (C) 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Anisotropic convection model for the earth's mantle

The paper presents a theory for modeling flow in anisotropic, viscous rock. This theory has originally been developed for the simulation of large deformation processes including the folding and kinking of multi-layered visco-elastic rock (Muhlhaus et al. [1,2]). The orientation of slip planes in the context of crystallographic slip is determined by the normal vector - the director - of these surfaces. The model is applied to simulate anisotropic mantle convection. We compare the evolution of flow patterns, Nusselt number and director orientations for isotropic and anisotropic rheologies. In the simulations we utilize two different finite element methodologies: The Lagrangian Integration Point Method Moresi et al [8] and an Eulerian formulation, which we implemented into the finite element based pde solver Fastflo (www.cmis.csiro.au/Fastflo/). The reason for utilizing two different finite element codes was firstly to study the influence of an anisotropic power law rheology which currently is not implemented into the Lagrangian Integration point scheme [8] and secondly to study the numerical performance of Eulerian (Fastflo)- and Lagrangian integration schemes [8]. It turned out that whereas in the Lagrangian method the Nusselt number vs time plot reached only a quasi steady state where the Nusselt number oscillates around a steady state value the Eulerian scheme reaches exact steady states and produces a high degree of alignment (director orientation locally orthogonal to velocity vector almost everywhere in the computational domain). In the simulations emergent anisotropy was strongest in terms of modulus contrast in the up and down-welling plumes. Mechanisms for anisotropic material behavior in the mantle dynamics context are discussed by Christensen [3]. The dominant mineral phases in the mantle generally do not exhibit strong elastic anisotropy but they still may be oriented by the convective flow. Thus viscous anisotropy (the main focus of this paper) may or may not correlate with elastic or seismic anisotropy.

Spatial and temporal variation in distribution of mangroves in Moreton Bay, subtropical Australia: a comparison of pattern metrics and change detection analyses based on aerial photographs

An assessment of the changes in the distribution and extent of mangroves within Moreton Bay, southeast Queensland, Australia, was carried out. Two assessment methods were evaluated: spatial and temporal pattern metrics analysis, and change detection analysis. Currently, about 15,000 ha of mangroves are present in Moreton Bay. These mangroves are important ecosystems, but are subject to disturbance from a number of sources. Over the past 25 years, there has been a loss of more than 3800 ha, as a result of natural losses and mangrove clearing (e.g. for urban and industrial development, agriculture and aquaculture). However, areas of new mangroves have become established over the same time period, offsetting these losses to create a net loss of about 200 ha. These new mangroves have mainly appeared in the southern bay region and the bay islands, particularly on the landward edge of existing mangroves. In addition, spatial patterns and species composition of mangrove patches have changed. The pattern metrics analysis provided an overview of mangrove distribution and change in the form of single metric values, while the change detection analysis gave a more detailed and spatially explicit description of change. An analysis of the effects of spatial scales on the pattern metrics indicated that they were relatively insensitive to scale at spatial resolutions less than 50 m, but that most metrics became sensitive at coarser resolutions, a finding which has implications for mapping of mangroves based on remotely sensed data. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting energy requirements in the clinical setting: Are current methods evidence based?

Estimating energy requirements is necessary in clinical practice when indirect calorimetry is impractical. This paper systematically reviews current methods for estimating energy requirements. Conclusions include: there is discrepancy between the characteristics of populations upon which predictive equations are based and current populations; tools are not well understood, and patient care can be compromised by inappropriate application of the tools. Data comparing tools and methods are presented and issues for practitioners are discussed. (C) 2003 International Life Sciences Institute.

Active and passive smoking and the risk of subarachnoid hemorrhage - An international population-based case-control study

Background and Purpose - This study was undertaken to better clarify the risks associated with cigarette smoking and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Methods - The study included 432 incident cases of SAH frequency matched to 473 community SAH-free controls to determine dose-dependent associations of active and passive smoking ( at home) and smoking cessation with SAH. Results - Compared with never smokers not exposed to passive smoking, the adjusted odds ratio for SAH among current smokers was 5.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.1 to 8.1); for past smokers, 1.2 ( 95% CI, 0.8 to 2.0); and for passive smokers, 0.9 ( 95% CI, 0.6 to 1.5). Current and lifetime exposures showed a clear dose-dependent effect, and risks appeared more prominent in women and for aneurysmal SAH. Approximately 1 in 3 cases of SAH could be attributed to current smoking, but risks decline quickly after smoking cessation, even among heavy smokers. Conclusions - A strong positive association was found between cigarette smoking and SAH, especially for aneurysmal SAH and women, which is virtually eliminated within a few years of smoking cessation. Large opportunities exist for preventing SAH through smoking avoidance and cessation programs.

Multiresolution spatial databases: Making web-based spatial applications faster

Spatial data has now been used extensively in the Web environment, providing online customized maps and supporting map-based applications. The full potential of Web-based spatial applications, however, has yet to be achieved due to performance issues related to the large sizes and high complexity of spatial data. In this paper, we introduce a multiresolution approach to spatial data management and query processing such that the database server can choose spatial data at the right resolution level for different Web applications. One highly desirable property of the proposed approach is that the server-side processing cost and network traffic can be reduced when the level of resolution required by applications are low. Another advantage is that our approach pushes complex multiresolution structures and algorithms into the spatial database engine. That is, the developer of spatial Web applications needs not to be concerned with such complexity. This paper explains the basic idea, technical feasibility and applications of multiresolution spatial databases.