Novel methods of state estimation and parameter identification for high-performance motorcycles

This research activity aims at providing a reliable estimation of particular state variables or parameters concerning the dynamics and performance optimization of a MotoGP-class motorcycle, integrating the classical model-based approach with new methodologies involving artificial intelligence. The first topic of the research focuses on the estimation of the thermal behavior of the MotoGP carbon braking system. Numerical tools are developed to assess the instantaneous surface temperature distribution in the motorcycle's front brake discs. Within this application other important brake parameters are identified using Kalman filters, such as the disc convection coefficient and the power distribution in the disc-pads contact region. Subsequently, a physical model of the brake is built to estimate the instantaneous braking torque. However, the results obtained with this approach are highly limited by the knowledge of the friction coefficient (μ) between the disc rotor and the pads. Since the value of μ is a highly nonlinear function of many variables (namely temperature, pressure and angular velocity of the disc), an analytical model for the friction coefficient estimation appears impractical to establish. To overcome this challenge, an innovative hybrid solution is implemented, combining the benefit of artificial intelligence (AI) with classical model-based approach. Indeed, the disc temperature estimated through the thermal model previously implemented is processed by a machine learning algorithm that outputs the actual value of the friction coefficient thus improving the braking torque computation performed by the physical model of the brake. Finally, the last topic of this research activity regards the development of an AI algorithm to estimate the current sideslip angle of the motorcycle's front tire. While a single-track motorcycle kinematic model and IMU accelerometer signals theoretically enable sideslip calculation, the presence of accelerometer noise leads to a significant drift over time. To address this issue, a long short-term memory (LSTM) network is implemented.

A foundation model for marxian breakdown theories based on a new falling rate of profit mechanism (Long version)

The paper presents a foundation model for Marxian theories of the breakdown of capitalism based on a new falling rate of profit mechanism. All of these theories are based on one or more of "the historical tendencies": a rising capital-wage bill ratio, a rising capitalist share and a falling rate of profit. The model is a foundation in the sense that it generates these tendencies in the context of a model with a constant subsistence wage. The newly discovered generating mechanism is based on neo-classical reasoning for a model with land. It is non-Ricardian in that land augmenting technical progress can be unboundedly rapid. Finally, since the model has no steady state, it is necessary to use a new technique, Chaplygin's method, to prove the result.

A foundation model for marxian breakdown theories based on a new falling rate of profit mechanism.

The paper presents a foundation model for Marxian theories of the breakdown of capitalism based on a new falling rate of profit mechanism. All of these theories are based on one or more of ?the historical tendencies?: a rising capital-wage bill ratio, a rising capitalist share and a falling rate of profit. The model is a foundation in the sense that it generates these tendencies in the context of a model with a constant subsistence wage. The newly discovered generating mechanism is based on neo-classical reasoning for a model with land. It is non-Ricardian in that land augmenting technical progress can be unboundedly rapid. Finally, since the model has no steady state, it is necessary to use a new technique, Chaplygin?s method, to prove the result.

Combinatorial identities and quantum state densities of supersymmetric sigma models on N-folds

There is a remarkable connection between the number of quantum states of conformal theories and the sequence of dimensions of Lie algebras. In this paper, we explore this connection by computing the asymptotic expansion of the elliptic genus and the microscopic entropy of black holes associated with (supersymmetric) sigma models. The new features of these results are the appearance of correct prefactors in the state density expansion and in the coefficient of the logarithmic correction to the entropy.

Final state and thermodynamics of a dark energy universe

As it follows from the classical analysis, the typical final state of a dark energy universe where a dominant energy condition is violated is a finite-time, sudden future singularity (a big rip). For a number of dark energy universes (including scalar phantom and effective phantom theories as well as specific quintessence models) we demonstrate that quantum effects play the dominant role near a big rip, driving the universe out of a future singularity (or, at least, moderating it). As a consequence, the entropy bounds with quantum corrections become well defined near a big rip. Similarly, black hole mass loss due to phantom accretion is not so dramatic as was expected: masses do not vanish to zero due to the transient character of the phantom evolution stage. Some examples of cosmological evolution for a negative, time-dependent equation of state are also considered with the same conclusions. The application of negative entropy (or negative temperature) occurrence in the phantom thermodynamics is briefly discussed.

The Emergence of the Post-Socialist Welfare State - The Case of the Baltic States : Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania

This dissertation takes a step towards providing a better understanding of post-socialist welfare state development from a theoretical as well as an empirical perspective. The overall analytical goal of this thesis has been to critically assess the development of social policies in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania using them as illustrative examples of post-socialist welfare state development in the light of the theories, approaches and typologies that have been developed to study affluent capitalist democracies. The four studies included in this dissertation aspire to a common aim in a number of specific ways. The first study tries to place the ideal-typical welfare state models of the Baltic States within the well-known welfare state typologies. At the same time, it provides a rich overview of the main social security institutions in the three countries by comparing them with each other and with the previous structures of the Soviet period. It examines the social insurance institutions of the Baltic States (old-age pensions, unemployment insurance, short-term benefits, sickness, maternity and parental insurance and family benefits) with respect to conditions of eligibility, replacement rates, financing and contributions. The findings of this study indicate that the Latvian social security system can generally be labelled as a mix of the basic security and corporatist models. The Estonian social security system can generally also be characterised as a mix of the basic security and corporatist models, even if there are some weak elements of the targeted model in it. It appears that the institutional changes developing in the social security system of Lithuania have led to a combination of the basic security and targeted models of the welfare state. Nevertheless, as the example of the three Baltic States shows, there is diversity in how these countries solve problems within the field of social policy. In studying the social security schemes in detail, some common features were found that could be attributed to all three countries. Therefore, the critical analysis of the main social security institutions of the Baltic States in this study gave strong supporting evidence in favour of identifying the post-socialist regime type that is already gaining acceptance within comparative welfare state research. Study Two compares the system of social maintenance and insurance in the Soviet Union, which was in force in the three Baltic countries before their independence, with the currently existing social security systems. The aim of the essay is to highlight the forces that have influenced the transformation of the social policy from its former highly universal, albeit authoritarian, form, to the less universal, social insurance-based systems of present-day Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. This study demonstrates that the welfare–economy nexus is not the only important factor in the development of social programs. The results of this analysis revealed that people's attitudes towards distributive justice and the developmental level of civil society also play an important part in shaping social policies. The shift to individualism in people’s mentality and the decline of the labour movement, or, to be more precise, the decline in trade union membership and influence, does nothing to promote the development of social rights in the Baltic countries and hinders the expansion of social policies. The legacy of the past has been another important factor in shaping social programs. It can be concluded that social policy should be studied as if embedded not only in the welfare-economy nexus, but also in the societal, historical and cultural nexus of a given society. Study Three discusses the views of the state elites on family policy within a wider theoretical setting covering family policy and social policy in a broader sense and attempts to expand this analytical framework to include other post-socialist countries. The aim of this essay is to explore the various views of the state elites in the Baltics concerning family policy and, in particular, family benefits as one of the possible explanations for the observed policy differences. The qualitative analyses indicate that the Baltic States differ significantly with regard to the motives behind their family policies. Lithuanian decision-makers seek to reduce poverty among families with children and enhance the parents’ responsibility for bringing up their children. Latvian policy-makers act so as to increase the birth rate and create equal opportunities for children from all families. Estonian policy-makers seek to create equal opportunities for all children and the desire to enhance gender equality is more visible in the case of Estonia in comparison with the other two countries. It is strongly arguable that there is a link between the underlying motives and the kinds of family benefits in a given country. This study, thus, indicates how intimately the attitudes of the state bureaucrats, policy-makers, political elite and researchers shape social policy. It confirms that family policy is a product of the prevailing ideology within a country, while the potential influence of globalisation and Europeanisation is detectable too. The final essay takes into account the opinions of welfare users and examines the performances of the institutionalised family benefits by relying on the recipients’ opinions regarding these benefits. The opinions of the populations as a whole regarding government efforts to help families are compared with those of the welfare users. Various family benefits are evaluated according to the recipients' satisfaction with those benefits as well as the contemporaneous levels of subjective satisfaction with the welfare programs related to the absolute level of expenditure on each program. The findings of this paper indicate that, in Latvia, people experience a lower level of success regarding state-run family insurance institutions, as compared to those in Lithuania and Estonia. This is deemed to be because the cash benefits for families and children in Latvia are, on average, seen as marginally influencing the overall financial situation of the families concerned. In Lithuania and Estonia, the overwhelming majority think that the family benefit systems improve the financial situation of families. It appears that recipients evaluated universal family benefits as less positive than targeted benefits. Some universal benefits negatively influenced the level of general satisfaction with the family benefits system provided in the countries being researched. This study puts forward a discussion about whether universalism is always more legitimate than targeting. In transitional economies, in which resources are highly constrained, some forms of universal benefits could turn out to be very expensive in relative terms, without being seen as useful or legitimate forms of help to families. In sum, by closely examining the different aspects of social policy, this dissertation goes beyond the over-generalisation of Eastern European welfare state development and, instead, takes a more detailed look at what is really going on in these countries through the examples of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. In addition, another important contribution made by this study is that it revives ‘western’ theoretical knowledge through ‘eastern’ empirical evidence and provides the opportunity to expand the theoretical framework for post-socialist societies.

Cosmological perturbations in generalized theories of gravity

The first part of the thesis concerns the study of inflation in the context of a theory of gravity called "Induced Gravity" in which the gravitational coupling varies in time according to the dynamics of the very same scalar field (the "inflaton") driving inflation, while taking on the value measured today since the end of inflation. Through the analytical and numerical analysis of scalar and tensor cosmological perturbations we show that the model leads to consistent predictions for a broad variety of symmetry-breaking inflaton's potentials, once that a dimensionless parameter entering into the action is properly constrained. We also discuss the average expansion of the Universe after inflation (when the inflaton undergoes coherent oscillations about the minimum of its potential) and determine the effective equation of state. Finally, we analyze the resonant and perturbative decay of the inflaton during (p)reheating. The second part is devoted to the study of a proposal for a quantum theory of gravity dubbed "Horava-Lifshitz (HL) Gravity" which relies on power-counting renormalizability while explicitly breaking Lorentz invariance. We test a pair of variants of the theory ("projectable" and "non-projectable") on a cosmological background and with the inclusion of scalar field matter. By inspecting the quadratic action for the linear scalar cosmological perturbations we determine the actual number of propagating degrees of freedom and realize that the theory, being endowed with less symmetries than General Relativity, does admit an extra gravitational degree of freedom which is potentially unstable. More specifically, we conclude that in the case of projectable HL Gravity the extra mode is either a ghost or a tachyon, whereas in the case of non-projectable HL Gravity the extra mode can be made well-behaved for suitable choices of a pair of free dimensionless parameters and, moreover, turns out to decouple from the low-energy Physics.

STATE-AND-TRANSITION MODELING AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: TOOLS FOR FUTURE CO-DEVELOPMENT OF MADAGASCAR’S NATURAL RESOURCES AND PEOPLE

Madagascar’s terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems have long supported a unique set of ecological communities, many of whom are endemic to the tropical island. Those same ecosystems have been a source of valuable natural resources to some of the poorest people in the world. Nevertheless, with pride, ingenuity and resourcefulness, the Malagasy people of the southwest coast, being of Vezo identity, subsist with low development fishing techniques aimed at an increasingly threatened host of aquatic seascapes. Mangroves, sea grass bed, and coral reefs of the region are under increased pressure from the general populace for both food provisions and support of economic opportunity. Besides purveyors and extractors, the coastal waters are also subject to a number of natural stressors, including cyclones and invasive, predator species of both flora and fauna. In addition, the aquatic ecosystems of the region are undergoing increased nutrient and sediment runoff due, in part, to Madagascar’s heavy reliance on land for agricultural purposes (Scales, 2011). Moreover, its coastal waters, like so many throughout the world, have been proven to be warming at an alarming rate over the past few decades. In recognizing the intimate interconnectedness of the both the social and ecological systems, conservation organizations have invoked a host of complimentary conservation and social development efforts with the dual aim of preserving or restoring the health of both the coastal ecosystems and the people of the region. This paper provides a way of thinking more holistically about the social-ecological system within a resiliency frame of understanding. Secondly, it applies a platform known as state-and-transition modeling to give form to the process. State-and-transition modeling is an iterative investigation into the physical makeup of a system of study as well as the boundaries and influences on that state, and has been used in restorative ecology for more than a decade. Lastly, that model is sited within an adaptive management scheme that provides a structured, cyclical, objective-oriented process for testing stakeholders cognitive understanding of the ecosystem through a pragmatic implementation and monitoring a host of small-scale interventions developed as part of the adaptive management process. Throughout, evidence of the application of the theories and frameworks are offered, with every effort made to retool conservation-minded development practitioners with a comprehensive strategy for addressing the increasingly fragile social-ecological systems of southwest Madagascar. It is offered, in conclusion, that the seascapes of the region would be an excellent case study worthy of future application of state-and-transition modeling and adaptive management as frameworks for conservation-minded development practitioners whose multiple projects, each with its own objective, have been implemented with a single goal in mind: preserve and protect the state of the supporting environment while providing for the basic needs of the local Malagasy people.

Re-Examining the Stop-Signal Task to Test Competing Theories of AD/HD

The current study tested two competing models of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (AD/HD), the inhibition and state regulation theories, by conducting fine-grained analyses of the Stop-Signal Task and another putative measure of behavioral inhibition, the Gordon Continuous Performance Test (G-CPT), in a large sample of children and adolescents. The inhibition theory posits that performance on these tasks reflects increased difficulties for AD/HD participants to inhibit prepotent responses. The model predicts that putative stop-signal reaction time (SSRT) group differences on the Stop-Signal Task will be primarily related to AD/HD participants requiring more warning than control participants to inhibit to the stop-signal and emphasizes the relative importance of commission errors, particularly "impulsive" type commissions, over other error types on the G-CPT. The state regulation theory, on the other hand, proposes response variability due to difficulties maintaining an optimal state of arousal as the primary deficit in AD/HD. This model predicts that SSRT differences will be more attributable to slower and/or more variable reaction time (RT) in the AD/HD group, as opposed to reflecting inhibitory deficits. State regulation assumptions also emphasize the relative importance of omission errors and "slow processing" type commissions over other error types on the G-CPT. Overall, results of Stop-Signal Task analyses were more supportive of state regulation predictions and showed that greater response variability (i.e., SDRT) in the AD/HD group was not reducible to slow mean reaction time (MRT) and that response variability made a larger contribution to increased SSRT in the AD/HD group than inhibitory processes. Examined further, ex-Gaussian analyses of Stop-Signal Task go-trial RT distributions revealed that increased variability in the AD/HD group was not due solely to a few excessively long RTs in the tail of the AD/HD distribution (i.e., tau), but rather indicated the importance of response variability throughout AD/HD group performance on the Stop-Signal Task, as well as the notable sensitivity of ex-Gaussian analyses to variability in data screening procedures. Results of G-CPT analyses indicated some support for the inhibition model, although error type analyses failed to further differentiate the theories. Finally, inclusion of primary variables of interest in exploratory factor analysis with other neurocognitive predictors of AD/HD indicated response variability as a separable construct and further supported its role in Stop-Signal Task performance. Response variability did not, however, make a unique contribution to the prediction of AD/HD symptoms beyond measures of motor processing speed in multiple deficit regression analyses. Results have implications for the interpretation of the processes reflected in widely-used variables in the AD/HD literature, as well as for the theoretical understanding of AD/HD.

A critical evaluation of theories of nationalism

This thesis considers the main theoretical positions within the contemporary sociology of nationalism. These can be grouped into two basic types, primordialist theories which assert that nationalism is an inevitable aspect of all human societies, and modernist theories which assert that nationalism and the nation-state first developed within western Europe in recent centuries. With respect to primordialist approaches to nationalism, it is argued that the main common explanation offered is human biological propensity. Consideration is concentrated on the most recent and plausible of such theories, sociobiology. Sociobiological accounts root nationalism and racism in genetic programming which favours close kin, or rather to the redirection of this programming in complex societies, where the social group is not a kin group. It is argued that the stated assumptions of the sociobiologists do not entail the conclusions they draw as to the roots of nationalism, and that in order to arrive at such conclusions further and implausible assumptions have to be made. With respect to modernists, the first group of writers who are considered are those, represented by Carlton Hayes, Hans Kohn and Elie Kedourie, whose main thesis is that the nation-state and nationalism are recent phenomena. Next, the two major attempts to relate nationalism and the nation-state to imperatives specific either to capitalist societies (in the `orthodox' marxist theory elaborated about the turn of the twentieth century) or to the processes of modernisation and industrialisation (the `Weberian' account of Ernest Gellner) are discussed. It is argued that modernist accounts can only be sustained by starting from a definition of nationalism and the nation-state which conflates such phenomena with others which are specific to the modern world. The marxist and Gellner accounts form the necessary starting point for any explanation as to why the nation-state is apparently the sole viable form of polity in the modern world, but their assumption that no pre-modern society was national leaves them without an adequate account of the earliest origins of the nation-state and of nationalism. Finally, a case study from the history of England argues both the achievement of a national state form and the elucidation of crucial components of a nationalist ideology were attained at a period not consistent with any of the versions of the modernist thesis.

Hypnotic induction is followed by state-like changes in the organization of EEG functional connectivity in the theta and beta frequency bands in high-hypnotically susceptible individuals

Altered state theories of hypnosis posit that a qualitatively distinct state of mental processing, which emerges in those with high hypnotic susceptibility following a hypnotic induction, enables the generation of anomalous experiences in response to specific hypnotic suggestions. If so then such a state should be observable as a discrete pattern of changes to functional connectivity (shared information) between brain regions following a hypnotic induction in high but not low hypnotically susceptible participants. Twenty-eight channel EEG was recorded from 12 high susceptible (highs) and 11 low susceptible (lows) participants with their eyes closed prior to and following a standard hypnotic induction. The EEG was used to provide a measure of functional connectivity using both coherence (COH) and the imaginary component of coherence (iCOH), which is insensitive to the effects of volume conduction. COH and iCOH were calculated between all electrode pairs for the frequency bands: delta (0.1-3.9 Hz), theta (4-7.9 Hz) alpha (8-12.9 Hz), beta1 (13-19.9 Hz), beta2 (20-29.9 Hz) and gamma (30-45 Hz). The results showed that there was an increase in theta iCOH from the pre-hypnosis to hypnosis condition in highs but not lows with a large proportion of significant links being focused on a central-parietal hub. There was also a decrease in beta1 iCOH from the pre-hypnosis to hypnosis condition with a focus on a fronto-central and an occipital hub that was greater in high compared to low susceptibles. There were no significant differences for COH or for spectral band amplitude in any frequency band. The results are interpreted as indicating that the hypnotic induction elicited a qualitative change in the organization of specific control systems within the brain for high as compared to low susceptible participants. This change in the functional organization of neural networks is a plausible indicator of the much theorized "hypnotic-state". © 2014 Jamieson and Burgess.

Static and Dynamic Integrated Expert Systems: State of the Art, Problems and Trends

Systemized analysis of trends towards integration and hybridization in contemporary expert systems is conducted, and a particular class of applied expert systems, integrated expert systems, is considered. For this purpose, terminology, classification, and models, proposed by the author, are employed. As examples of integrated expert systems, Russian systems designed in this field and available to the majority of specialists are analyzed.

Analysis of Dermatoglyphic Signs for Definition Psychic Functional State of Human's Organism

Relation between dermatoglyphic signs and temperaments types is considered. An algorithm for papillary patterns classification and Izenk’s two factors model are used for establishment relationship asymmetry signs with psychic functional state of human’s organism.

Economic theories of the family and discrimination in a social context: Entitlements of Kondh tribal females in India

Economic theories of the family and gender discrimination within the family are examined in the context of Kondh dominated tribal villages in rural western Orissa, India, drawing on results from a survey of 106 wives. The survey involved direct interviews using a structured questionnaire. This article examines the relevance of economic unitary and bargaining theories of the family in this social context, drawing on background literature. Using the survey results, socioeconomic influences on the status of wives within their families are analyzed and the entitlements of female and male children are compared and analyzed. Because of cultural embedding, it is suggested that the relevance of economic theories of the family depend significantly on cultural context. In many cases, it seems that poverty has a negative influence on the social empowerment of females but it is not the only influence nor always a sufficient condition for discrimination against females.

Fractional State Space Analysis of Temperature Time Series

Atmospheric temperatures characterize Earth as a slow dynamics spatiotemporal system, revealing long-memory and complex behavior. Temperature time series of 54 worldwide geographic locations are considered as representative of the Earth weather dynamics. These data are then interpreted as the time evolution of a set of state space variables describing a complex system. The data are analyzed by means of multidimensional scaling (MDS), and the fractional state space portrait (fSSP). A centennial perspective covering the period from 1910 to 2012 allows MDS to identify similarities among different Earth’s locations. The multivariate mutual information is proposed to determine the “optimal” order of the time derivative for the fSSP representation. The fSSP emerges as a valuable alternative for visualizing system dynamics.