Residual-based test for Nonlinear Cointegration with application in PPPs

Nested by linear cointegration first provided in Granger (1981), the definition of nonlinear cointegration is presented in this paper. Sequentially, a nonlinear cointegrated economic system is introduced. What we mainly study is testing no nonlinear cointegration against nonlinear cointegration by residual-based test, which is ready for detecting stochastic trend in nonlinear autoregression models. We construct cointegrating regression along with smooth transition components from smooth transition autoregression model. Some properties are analyzed and discussed during the estimation procedure for cointegrating regression, including description of transition variable. Autoregression of order one is considered as the model of estimated residuals for residual-based test, from which the teststatistic is obtained. Critical values and asymptotic distribution of the test statistic that we request for different cointegrating regressions with different sample sizes are derived based on Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed theoretical methods and models are illustrated by an empirical example, comparing the results with linear cointegration application in Hamilton (1994). It is concluded that there exists nonlinear cointegration in our system in the final results.

Testing common nonlinear features in vector nonlinear autoregressive models

This paper studies a special class of vector smooth-transition autoregressive (VSTAR) models that contains common nonlinear features (CNFs), for which we proposed a triangular representation and developed a procedure of testing CNFs in a VSTAR model. We first test a unit root against a stable STAR process for each individual time series and then examine whether CNFs exist in the system by Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test if unit root is rejected in the first step. The LM test has standard Chi-squared asymptotic distribution. The critical values of our unit root tests and small-sample properties of the F form of our LM test are studied by Monte Carlo simulations. We illustrate how to test and model CNFs using the monthly growth of consumption and income data of United States (1985:1 to 2011:11).

Forecasting with Vector Nonlinear Time Series Models

This work concerns forecasting with vector nonlinear time series models when errorsare correlated. Point forecasts are numerically obtained using bootstrap methods andillustrated by two examples. Evaluation concentrates on studying forecast equality andencompassing. Nonlinear impulse responses are further considered and graphically sum-marized by highest density region. Finally, two macroeconomic data sets are used toillustrate our work. The forecasts from linear or nonlinear model could contribute usefulinformation absent in the forecasts form the other model.

Residual-based Inference for Common Nonlinear Features

This paper investigates common nonlinear features in multivariate nonlinear autore-gressive models via testing the estimated residuals. A Wald-type test is proposed and itis asymptotically Chi-squared distributed. Simulation studies are given to examine thefinite-sample properties of the proposed test.

Common Features in Vector Nonlinear Time Series Models

This thesis consists of four manuscripts in the area of nonlinear time series econometrics on topics of testing, modeling and forecasting nonlinear common features. The aim of this thesis is to develop new econometric contributions for hypothesis testing and forecasting in these area. Both stationary and nonstationary time series are concerned. A definition of common features is proposed in an appropriate way to each class. Based on the definition, a vector nonlinear time series model with common features is set up for testing for common features. The proposed models are available for forecasting as well after being well specified. The first paper addresses a testing procedure on nonstationary time series. A class of nonlinear cointegration, smooth-transition (ST) cointegration, is examined. The ST cointegration nests the previously developed linear and threshold cointegration. An Ftypetest for examining the ST cointegration is derived when stationary transition variables are imposed rather than nonstationary variables. Later ones drive the test standard, while the former ones make the test nonstandard. This has important implications for empirical work. It is crucial to distinguish between the cases with stationary and nonstationary transition variables so that the correct test can be used. The second and the fourth papers develop testing approaches for stationary time series. In particular, the vector ST autoregressive (VSTAR) model is extended to allow for common nonlinear features (CNFs). These two papers propose a modeling procedure and derive tests for the presence of CNFs. Including model specification using the testing contributions above, the third paper considers forecasting with vector nonlinear time series models and extends the procedures available for univariate nonlinear models. The VSTAR model with CNFs and the ST cointegration model in the previous papers are exemplified in detail,and thereafter illustrated within two corresponding macroeconomic data sets.

Bifurcations and bistability in cavity-assisted photoassociation of Bose-Einstein-condensed molecules

We study the photoassociation of Bose-Einstein condensed atoms into molecules using an optical cavity field. The driven cavity field introduces a dynamical degree of freedom into the photoassociation process, whose role in determining the stationary behavior has not previously been considered. The semiclassical stationary solutions for the atom and molecules as well as the intracavity field are found and their stability and scaling properties are determined in terms of experimentally controllable parameters including driving amplitude of the cavity and the nonlinear interactions between atoms and molecules. For weak cavity driving, we find a bifurcation in the atom and molecule number occurs that signals a transition from a stable steady state to nonlinear Rabi oscillations. For a strongly driven cavity, there exists bistability in the atom and molecule number.

Quantum control of electromagnetically induced transparency dispersion via atomic tunneling in a double-well Bose-Einstein condensate

Electromagnetically induced transparency (EIT) is an important tool for controlling light propagation and nonlinear wave mixing in atomic gases with potential applications ranging from quantum computing to table top tests of general relativity. Here we consider EIT in an atomic Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) trapped in a double-well potential. A weak probe laser propagates through one of the wells and interacts with atoms in a three-level Lambda configuration. The well through which the probe propagates is dressed by a strong control laser with Rabi frequency Omega(mu), as in standard EIT systems. Tunneling between the wells at the frequency g provides a coherent coupling between identical electronic states in the two wells, which leads to the formation of interwell dressed states. The macroscopic interwell coherence of the BEC wave function results in the formation of two ultranarrow absorption resonances for the probe field that are inside of the ordinary EIT transparency window. We show that these new resonances can be interpreted in terms of the interwell dressed states and the formation of a type of dark state involving the control laser and the interwell tunneling. To either side of these ultranarrow resonances there is normal dispersion with very large slope controlled by g. We discuss prospects for observing these ultranarrow resonances and the corresponding regions of high dispersion experimentally.

Diagramas momento-curvatura para elementos estruturais de concreto armado submetidos a carregamento monotonico ou cíclico

Este trabalho tem por objetivo desenvolver e implementar, computacionalmente, procedimentos numéricos eficientes, aplicados à determinacão do diagrama momento-curvatura, correspondentes à: -uma seção tipica, em vigas de concreto armado, submetida à carga monotônica ou cíclica de curta duração; - um ponto genérico da superficie média em placas de concreto armado, submetidas à carga monotônica de curta duração. Ainda à luz dos resultados obtidos, visa também propôr um modelo simplificado em termos de resultantes de tensões e deformações generalizadas. Inicialmente, é descrito um modelo laminar para vigas, no qual a carga é aplicada de forma incremental sendo que para cada etapa, as equaçães de equilibrio não-lineares são resolvidas de maneira iterativa. Como consequência é proposta uma relação momento-curvatura em termos de resultantes. A fim de verificar a validade e aplicabilidade dos métodos e dos algorítmos estudados e comparar-se os resultados com dados experimentais e respostas obtidas por outros pesquisadores, é apresentada uma série de exemplos numéricos. A continuação, é aplicado o procedimento anterior para modelos de laje, livres de solicitações de membrana. Finalmente através de um estudo paramétrico dos diversos fatores que afetam o diagrama momento-curvatura, propõe-se uma relação simplificada.

Islamic law and international law: the terms of a relationship

The relationship between Islamic Law and other legal systems (basically western type domestic legal orders and international law) is often thought of in terms of compatibility or incompatibility. Concerning certain subject matters of choice, the compatibility of Islamic (legal) principles with the values embedded in legal systems that are regarded as characteristic of the Modern Age is tested by sets of questions: is democracy possible in Islam? Does Islam recognize human rights and are those rights equivalent to a more universal conception? Does Islam recognize or condone more extreme acts of violence and does it justify violence differently? Etc. Such questions and many more presuppose the existence of an ensemble of rules or principles which, as any other set of rules and principles, purport to regulate social behavior. This ensemble is generically referred to as Islamic Law. However, one set of questions is usually left unanswered: is Islamic Law a legal system? If it is a legal system, what are its specific characteristics? How does it work? Where does it apply? It is this paper`s argument that the relationship between Islamic Law and domestic and international law can only be understood if looked upon as a relationship between distinct legal systems or legal orders.

Exploratory semiparametric analysis of two-dimensional diffusions in finance

We examine bivariate extensions of Aït-Sahalia’s approach to the estimation of univariate diffusions. Our message is that extending his idea to a bivariate setting is not straightforward. In higher dimensions, as opposed to the univariate case, the elements of the Itô and Fokker-Planck representations do not coincide; and, even imposing sensible assumptions on the marginal drifts and volatilities is not sufficient to obtain direct generalisations. We develop exploratory estimation and testing procedures, by parametrizing the drifts of both component processes and setting restrictions on the terms of either the Itô or the Fokker-Planck covariance matrices. This may lead to highly nonlinear ordinary differential equations, where the definition of boundary conditions is crucial. For the methods developed, the Fokker-Planck representation seems more tractable than the Itô’s. Questions for further research include the design of regularity conditions on the time series dependence in the data, the kernels actually used and the bandwidths, to obtain asymptotic properties for the estimators proposed. A particular case seems promising: “causal bivariate models” in which only one of the diffusions contributes to the volatility of the other. Hedging strategies which estimate separately the univariate diffusions at stake may thus be improved.

Tayloring Brazil: a system dynamics model for monetary policy feedback

The thesis introduces a system dynamics Taylor rule model of new Keynesian nature for monetary policy feedback in Brazil. The nonlinear Taylor rule for interest rate changes con-siders gaps and dynamics of GDP growth and inflation. The model closely tracks the 2004 to 2011 business cycle and outlines the endogenous feedback between the real interest rate, GDP growth and inflation. The model identifies a high degree of endogenous feedback for monetary policy and inflation, while GDP growth remains highly exposed to exogenous eco-nomic conditions. The results also show that the majority of the monetary policy moves during the sample period was related to GDP growth, despite higher coefficients of inflation parameters in the Taylor rule. This observation challenges the intuition that inflation target-ing leads to a dominance of monetary policy moves with respect to inflation. Furthermore, the results suggest that backward looking price-setting with respect to GDP growth has been the dominant driver of inflation. Moreover, simulation exercises highlight the effects of the new BCB strategy initiated in August 2011 and also consider recession and inflation avoid-ance versions of the Taylor rule. In methodological terms, the Taylor rule model highlights the advantages of system dynamics with respect to nonlinear policies and to the stock-and-flow approach. In total, the strong historical fit and some counterintuitive observations of the Taylor rule model call for an application of the model to other economies.

Moral hazard and nonlinear pricing in a general equilibrium model

The paper analyzes a two period general equilibrium model with individual risk and moral hazard. Each household faces two individual states of nature in the second period. These states solely differ in the household's vector of initial endowments, which is strictly larger in the first state (good state) than in the second state (bad state). In the first period households choose a non-observable action. Higher leveis of action give higher probability of the good state of nature to occur, but lower leveIs of utility. Households have access to an insurance market that allows transfer of income across states of oature. I consider two models of financiaI markets, the price-taking behavior model and the nonlínear pricing modelo In the price-taking behavior model suppliers of insurance have a belief about each household's actíon and take asset prices as given. A variation of standard arguments shows the existence of a rational expectations equilibrium. For a generic set of economies every equilibrium is constraíned sub-optímal: there are commodity prices and a reallocation of financiaI assets satisfying the first period budget constraint such that, at each household's optimal choice given those prices and asset reallocation, markets clear and every household's welfare improves. In the nonlinear pricing model suppliers of insurance behave strategically offering nonlinear pricing contracts to the households. I provide sufficient conditions for the existence of equilibrium and investigate the optimality properties of the modeI. If there is a single commodity then every equilibrium is constrained optimaI. Ir there is more than one commodity, then for a generic set of economies every equilibrium is constrained sub-optimaI.