Hilbert Space Valued Signal Plus Noise Models: Analysis of Structural Breaks under High Dimensionality and Temporal Dependence

This thesis is concerned with change point analysis for time series, i.e. with detection of structural breaks in time-ordered, random data. This long-standing research field regained popularity over the last few years and is still undergoing, as statistical analysis in general, a transformation to high-dimensional problems. We focus on the fundamental »change in the mean« problem and provide extensions of the classical non-parametric Darling-Erdős-type cumulative sum (CUSUM) testing and estimation theory within highdimensional Hilbert space settings. In the first part we contribute to (long run) principal component based testing methods for Hilbert space valued time series under a rather broad (abrupt, epidemic, gradual, multiple) change setting and under dependence. For the dependence structure we consider either traditional m-dependence assumptions or more recently developed m-approximability conditions which cover, e.g., MA, AR and ARCH models. We derive Gumbel and Brownian bridge type approximations of the distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis of no change and consistency conditions under the alternative. A new formulation of the test statistic using projections on subspaces allows us to simplify the standard proof techniques and to weaken common assumptions on the covariance structure. Furthermore, we propose to adjust the principal components by an implicit estimation of a (possible) change direction. This approach adds flexibility to projection based methods, weakens typical technical conditions and provides better consistency properties under the alternative. In the second part we contribute to estimation methods for common changes in the means of panels of Hilbert space valued time series. We analyze weighted CUSUM estimates within a recently proposed »high-dimensional low sample size (HDLSS)« framework, where the sample size is fixed but the number of panels increases. We derive sharp conditions on »pointwise asymptotic accuracy« or »uniform asymptotic accuracy« of those estimates in terms of the weighting function. Particularly, we prove that a covariance-based correction of Darling-Erdős-type CUSUM estimates is required to guarantee uniform asymptotic accuracy under moderate dependence conditions within panels and that these conditions are fulfilled, e.g., by any MA(1) time series. As a counterexample we show that for AR(1) time series, close to the non-stationary case, the dependence is too strong and uniform asymptotic accuracy cannot be ensured. Finally, we conduct simulations to demonstrate that our results are practically applicable and that our methodological suggestions are advantageous.

Construction industry performance measurement with carbon reduction

The research developed non-parametric approaches for measuring construction industry performance in sustainable development. The research results support the improvement of value added and the reduction of carbon emissions, which have positive environmental and economic implications in the Australian construction industry.

Impacto del Programa de Alimentación Escolar en el Trabajo Infantil: Una aproximación desde la toma de decisiones familiares

Esta investigación analiza el impacto del Programa de Alimentación Escolar en el trabajo infantil en Colombia a través de varias técnicas de evaluación de impacto que incluyen emparejamiento simple, emparejamiento genético y emparejamiento con reducción de sesgo. En particular, se encuentra que este programa disminuye la probabilidad de que los escolares trabajen alrededor de un 4%. Además, se explora que el trabajo infantil se reduce gracias a que el programa aumenta la seguridad alimentaria, lo que consecuentemente cambia las decisiones de los hogares y anula la carga laboral en los infantes. Son numerosos los avances en primera infancia llevados a cabo por el Estado, sin embargo, estos resultados sirven de base para construir un marco conceptual en el que se deben rescatar y promover las políticas públicas alimentarias en toda la edad escolar.

Propolis components accountable for bactericidal accomplishment and antibiofilm activity

This study aimed at evaluating antimicrobial and antibiofilm activity of phenolic compounds present in propolis ethanol extracts (PEE). Seventy per cent ethanol extracts from seven types of propolis, one Green, two Red and four Brown collected in four Brazilian States were prepared and total phenolics, flavonoids, tannins and anthocyanins were assessed by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Minimum bactericidal concentration (MBC) and inhibitor effect on Staphylococcus aureus biofilm formation and capacity to disrupt established biofilms were assessed towards eight S. aureus isolates from milk of small ruminants with mastitis, one methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) and S. aureus ATCC 25923. To evaluate different propolis components accountability for bactericidal accomplishment and antibiofilm activity, the results were analysed by the non-parametric Spearman coefficient. Results of phenolic compounds were 216,21 to 312,08 gallic acid milligram equivalent per extract gram (mg EGA/g) of total phenolics, 55,08 to 140,6 quercetin milligram equivalent per extract gram (mg EQ/g) of flavonoids, 118,51 to 3766,16 catechin milligram equivalent per extract gram (mg EC/g) of tannins and 1,03 to 8,39 milligram per extract gram (mg/g) of anthocyanins. Red1 and Red2 showed higher tannin contents, while Red2 exhibited superior amount of anthocyanins and total phenolics. Brown3 presented higher flavonoid quantity. Green, Red1 and Red2 PEE showed the lowest levels of flavonoids, but the higher antimicrobial activity. Most PEE exhibit bactericidal activity at a concentration of 1.6 mg/mL. Brown4 PEE showed the worst capacity to inhibit S. aureus. Green PEE showed to be the most efficient in both preventing and disrupting biofilm. All PEE studied exhibited a better inhibitory activity prior-to than post-biofilm formation. According to non-parametric Spearman correlation analysis, there seems to be a significant negative correlation between the ability to disrupt biofilm and both tannins and anthocyanins contents.

A low fermentable oligo-di-mono saccharides and polyols (FODMAP) diet reduced pain and improved daily life in fibromyalgia patients

Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic, rheumatic disease characterized by widespread myofascial pain, of unknown aetiology, having a major impact on quality of life (QOL). Available pharmacotherapy for FM is marginally effective. FM is associated with co-morbidities of gastrointestinal (GI) disorders and Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS). There is growing evidence that diets low in FODMAPs, “fermentable oligo-, di- or mono-saccharides and polyols” [Low FODMAP Diet (LFD)], are effective in treating IBS. The aim of this pilot study was to examine the effects of LFDs on symptoms of FM, especially with regard to pain, QOL and GI disorders. Methods A longitudinal study using LFD intervention was performed on 38, 51 ± 10 year-old, female patients diagnosed with FM for an average of 10 years, based on ACR (American College of Rheumatology) 2010 criteria. The study was conducted from January through May, 2015, using a four-week, repeated-assessment model, as follows: Moment 0 – introduction of the protocol to participants; Moment 1 – first assessment and delivery of individual LFD dietary plans; Moment 2 – second assessment and reintroduction of FODMAPs; Moment 3 – last assessment and final nutritional counselling. Assessment tools used were the following: RFIQ (Revised Fibromyalgia Impact Questionnaire), FSQ (Fibromyalgia Survey Questionnaire), IBS-SSS (Severity Score System), EQ-5D (Euro-QOL quality of life instrument), and VAS (Visual Analogue Scale). Daily consumption of FODMAPs was quantified based on published food content analyses. Statistical analyses included ANOVA, non-parametric Friedman, t-student and Chi-square tests, using SPSS 22 software. Results The mean scores of the 38 participants at the beginning of the study were: FSQ (severity of FM, 0–31) – 22 ± 4.4; RFIQ (0–100) – 65 ± 17; IBS-SSS (0–500) – 275 ± 101; and EQ-5D (0–100) – 48 ± 19. Mean adherence to dietary regimens was 86%, confirmed by significant difference in FODMAP intakes (25 g/day vs. 2.5 g/day; p < 0.01). Comparisons between the three moments of assessment showed significant (p < 0.01) declines in scores in VAS, FSQ, and RFIQ scores, in all domains measured. An important improvement was observed with a reduction in the severity of GI symptoms, with 50% reduction in IBS scores to 138 ± 117, following LFD therapy. A significant correlation (r = 0.36; p < 0.05) was found between improvements in FM impact (declined scores) and gastrointestinal scores. There was also a significant correlation (r = 0.65; p < 0.01) between “satisfaction with improvement” after introduction of LFDs and “diet adherence”, with satisfaction of the diet achieving 77% among participants. A significant difference was observed between patients who improved as compared to those that did not improve (Chi-square χ2 = 6.16; p < .05), showing that the probability of improvement, depends on the severity of the RFIQ score. Conclusions Implementation of diet therapy involving FODMAP restrictions, in this cohort of FM patients, resulted in a significant reduction in GI disorders and FM symptoms, including pain scores. These results need to be extended in future larger studies on dietary therapy for treatment of FM. Implications According to current scientific knowledge, these are the first relevant results found in an intervention with LFD therapy in FM and must be reproduced looking for a future dietetic approach in FM.

Restricting the flexibility in DEA models

DEA models have been applied as the benchmarking tool in operations management to empirically account operational and productive efficiency. The wide flexibility in assigning the weights in DEA approach can result on indicators of efficiency who do not take account the relative importance of some inputs. In order to overcome this limitation, in this research we apply the DEA model under restricted weight specification. This model is applied to Spanish hotel companies in order to measure operational efficiency. The restricted weight specification enables us to decrease the influence of assigning unrealistic weights in some units and improve the efficiency estimation and to increase the discriminating potential of the conventional DEA model.

Efeitos da dança criativa em mulheres idosas

Objectivo: Verificar os efeitos da prática da Dança Criativa (DC) em mulheres idosas, no peso (P), altura (A), índice de massa corporal (IMC), perímetro abdominal (PA), força, resistência e flexibilidade dos membros superiores e inferiores (F, R, FL-MS/MI), mobilidade física (MF) [agilidade (AG), velocidade (V), equilíbrio dinâmico (ED)], resistência aeróbia (RA) e satisfação com a vida (SV). Método: A amostra foi de 57 mulheres, entre os 65 e os 80 anos, tendo sido distribuídas aleatoriamente pelo grupo de controlo (GC) (n=25) e pelo grupo experimental (GE) (n=32). Este último frequentou aulas de DC durante 6 meses, 3 vezes por semana, com a duração de 50'. A análise estatística foi efectuada através do SPSS 17, b:mdo sido utilizadas técnicas não paramétricas. As variáveis funcionais foram avaliadas através da bateria funcional Fitness Test (Rikli & Jones, 1999) - Idosos e a SV através da Satisfaction with Live Scale (SWLS), (Diener, Larsen and Gri1fin, 1985). Resultados: Os resultados demonstraram diferenças significativas, para melhor, em todas as variáveis, excepto no P, no PA e na FLMS, entre o início e os 3 meses e entre o início E os 6 meses. No P e no PA foram observadas diferenças entre os 3 e os 15 meses. Na FRMS ambos os grupos apresentaram diferenças significativas, para melhor, e na FLMS só o GC apresentou diferenças significativas para pior. Não havia diferenças significativas entre o GE e o GC no início do estudo, excepto na RA. Conclusões: A DC promove melhorias no P; A; IMC; PA; F, R, FL-MI; MF; RA e SV em mulheres idosas. ABSTRACT: Objective: To test and verify the effects of the practice of Creative Dance in the weight, height, body mass, abdominal perimeter, strength, resistance and flexibility of the lower and upper limbs, as well as physical mobility (agility, velocity, dynamic balance), aerobic resistance and life satisfaction in elderly women. Method: 57 females constituted the sample analyzed within the ages of 65 and 80 years old randomly divided between the control group (25) and the experimental group (32). The experimental group attended 50 minutes’ classes prepared and orientated to the target core of this study during six months. The statistical analysis was processed with SPSS 17 software under non-parametric techniques. The functional battery Fitness Test (Rikli & Jones, 1999) was used to evaluate the functional variables and life satisfaction was accessed trough the Satisfaction with Live Scale (SWLS), (Diener, Larsen and Griffin, 1985). Results: The results defined positive significant differences in all variables evaluated, except weigh, abdominal perimeter and flexibility of the upper limbs between the beginning and the 3-month and the beginning and the 6- month. Differences were observed in weight and abdominal perimeter between the 3 and 6 months. 8oth groups showed considerable positive differences in the strength and resistance of the upper limbs and only the control group showed negative differences in flexibility of the upper limbs. At the beginning of the study there were no significant differences between the two groups, except in the aerobic resistance. Conclusions: Creative Dance promotes the improvement of weight, height, body mass index, abdominal perimeter, strength, resistance, flexibility of both upper and lower limbs in elderly women.

. Attitudes of Elements of the Academic Community in Regard to the Rapid Test of HIV/AIDS

Background: Knowing one’s own seropositivity status of HIV/AIDS is important. Seropositivity can be determined by a rapid HIV/AIDS test. Attitudes towards a rapid test of HIV/AIDS show a predisposition to perform the analysis. Objective: This study investigated, the attitudes of students and staff in a Portuguese university toward rapid HIV/AIDS test. Methods: In a convenience sample, the data was collected on campus in three consecutive years. A selfadministered structured questionnaire was used for data collection. A validated scale for Portuguese students was applied. A sample of 947 (86.3%) students and 150 (13.7%) teaching and non-teaching staff participated. The average age was 24.30 years-old (SD=8.64). Non-parametric tests were applied. Results: Attitudes of professors and non-teaching staff are more favorable in relation to the rapid test of HIV/AIDS, compared to students. Attitudes are also more favorable in the first year in which the study was conducted with both employees and students. The male students express more traditional attitudes. Students of nursing polo have expressed more favorable attitudes to the rapid test of HIV/AIDS. Conclusion: The attitudes towards rapid test of HIV/AIDS are generally favorable. It is necessary to conduct further research considering professors and other university staff. Improving favorable attitudes toward rapid HIV/AIDS test must be a positive fact for health.

Financing innovative start-ups in Portuguese context: what is the role of business angels networks?

Business angels provide both financing and managerial experience, which increase the likelihood of the survival of innovative start-ups. Over the last years, European countries with developing informal venture capital markets have seen governments support the creation of business angels networks (BANs) to increase and consolidate these markets. Using the Portuguese context to carry out the empirical work, this paper provides an assessment of value added provided by angels’ networks. A total of 88 useable responses were received and analysed using non-parametric statistical techniques. This paper demonstrates that is evidence of positive contribution of BANs in terms of bringing together investors and linking them with entrepreneur’s seeking finance. BANs played an important role in financing innovative start-ups also in peripheral regions. Results lead us to conclude that government support BANs would appear to be an effective mechanism to stimulate the angel market in developing informal venture capital markets. The conclusions of this paper are likely to have relevance for countries where there is growing interest in the potential of business angels as a means of financing innovative start-ups.

Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

Parametric study of non-relativistic electrostatic shocks and the structure of their transition layer

Nonrelativistic electrostatic unmagnetized shocks are frequently observed in laboratory plasmas and they are likely to exist in astrophysical plasmas. Their maximum speed, expressed in units of the ion acoustic speed far upstream of the shock, depends only on the electron-to-ion temperature ratio if binary collisions are absent. The formation and evolution of such shocks is examined here for a wide range of shock speeds with particle-in-cell simulations. The initial temperatures of the electrons and the 400 times heavier ions are equal. Shocks form on electron time scales at Mach numbers between 1.7 and 2.2. Shocks with Mach numbers up to 2.5 form after tens of inverse ion plasma frequencies. The density of the shock-reflected ion beam increases and the number of ions crossing the shock thus decreases with an increasing Mach number, causing a slower expansion of the downstream region in its rest frame. The interval occupied by this ion beam is on a positive potential relative to the far upstream. This potential pre-heats the electrons ahead of the shock even in the absence of beam instabilities and decouples the electron temperature in the foreshock ahead of the shock from the one in the far upstream plasma. The effective Mach number of the shock is reduced by this electron heating. This effect can potentially stabilize nonrelativistic electrostatic shocks moving as fast as supernova remnant shocks.