The effects of economic crises on tourism success: an integrated model

This paper provides a theoretical model of the influence of economic crises on tourism destination performance. It discusses the temporary and permanent effects of economic crises on the global market shares of tourism destinations through a series of potential transmission mechanisms based on the main economic competitiveness determinants identified in the literature. The proposed model explains the non-neutrality of economic shocks in tourism competitiveness. The model is tested on Spain's tourism industry, which is among the leaders of the global tourism sector, for the period 1970–2013 using non-linear econometric techniques. The empirical analysis confirms that the proposed model is appropriate for explaining the changes in the market positions caused by the economic crises.

Étude sur le rôle de SIGIRR chez les cas pédiatriques dans la maladie de Crohn

Il est admis que la maladie de Crohn (MC) résulte de facteurs immunologiques, environnementaux et génétiques. SIGIRR, un récepteur anti-inflammatoire, n’a jamais été étudié dans le contexte de la MC, et de nombreuses découvertes à son sujet ont mené plusieurs à s’intéresser quant à son utilité dans l’atténuation de maladies inflammatoires. Récemment, l’IL-37 a été identifié comme ligand d’un complexe formé de SIGIRR-IL-18Rα. SIGIRR et l’IL-37 pourraient alors être des acteurs de la dérégulation de l’inflammation retrouvée chez la MC. Nous les avons étudiés dans le contexte de la MC pédiatrique, afin d’y caractériser leurs effets. Nous avons identifié une diminution de l’expression de SIGIRR sur certains types de cellules immunitaires. De plus, les personnes atteintes de la MC ont des concentrations de protéines altérées, soit SIGIRR soluble, l’IL-37, l’IL-18BP, et l’IL-18, et tendent à revenir à la normale lorsque l’inflammation est contrôlée par médication. De plus, la concentration de l’IL-18 libre suit le même patron. Par analyse de régression linéaire de SIGIRR soluble et l’IL-37, de l’IL-18BP et l’IL-18, ainsi que l’IL-37 et l’IL-18, des tendances divergentes ont été identifiées entre les patients non traités aux contrôles et patients traités. Nos résultats suggèrent que le système IL-37-SIGIRR est compromis chez les patients de la MC. Étant donné que ce système est un facteur crucial dans la régulation négative de l’inflammation, il sera intéressant de déterminer si SIGIRR et l’IL-37 peuvent constituer des cibles thérapeutiques importantes dans l’atténuation et la résolution de l’inflammation chez les patients atteints de la MC.

The effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in the two major Portuguese cities

It is well known that meteorological conditions influence the comfort and human health. Southern European countries, including Portugal, show the highest mortality rates during winter, but the effects of extreme cold temperatures in Portugal have never been estimated. The objective of this study was the estimation of the effect of extreme cold temperatures on the risk of death in Lisbon and Oporto, aiming the production of scientific evidence for the development of a real-time health warning system. Poisson regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models were applied to assess the exposure-response relation and lag patterns of the association between minimum temperature and all-causes mortality and between minimum temperature and circulatory and respiratory system diseases mortality from 1992 to 2012, stratified by age, for the period from November to March. The analysis was adjusted for over dispersion and population size, for the confounding effect of influenza epidemics and controlled for long-term trend, seasonality and day of the week. Results showed that the effect of cold temperatures in mortality was not immediate, presenting a 1–2-day delay, reaching maximumincreased risk of death after 6–7 days and lasting up to 20–28 days. The overall effect was generally higher and more persistent in Lisbon than in Oporto, particularly for circulatory and respiratory mortality and for the elderly. Exposure to cold temperatures is an important public health problem for a relevant part of the Portuguese population, in particular in Lisbon.

Proglacial river dataset from the Akuliarusiarsuup Kuua River northern tributary, Southwest Greenland, 2008 - 2010, version 1.0

Pressing scientific questions concerning the Greenland ice sheet's climatic sensitivity, hydrology, and contributions to current and future sea level rise require hydrological datasets to resolve. While direct observations of ice sheet meltwater losses can be obtained in terrestrial rivers draining the ice sheet and from lake levels, few such datasets exist. We present a new dataset of meltwater river discharge for the vicinity of Kangerlussuaq, Southwest Greenland. The dataset contains measurements of river stage and discharge for three sites along the Akuliarusiarsuup Kuua (Watson) River's northern tributary, with 30 minute temporal resolution between June 2008 and August 2010. Additional data of water temperature, air pressure, and lake water depth and temperature are also provided. Discharge data were measured at sites with near-ideal properties for such data collection. Regardless, high water bedload and turbulent flow introduce considerable uncertainty. These were constrained and quantified using statistical techniques, thereby providing a high quality dataset from this important site. The greatest data uncertainties are associated with streambed elevation change and measurements. Large portions of stream channels deepened according to statistical tests, but poor precision of streambed depth measurements also added uncertainty. Quality checked data are freely available for scientific use as supplementary online material.

An observational and theoretical study of the structure and propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

The net benefit of saving the Asian elephant: a policy and contingent valuation study

Reports results from a contingent valuation (CV) survey of willingness to pay (WTP) for the conservation of the Asian elephant of a sample of urban residents living in three selected housing schemes in Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka. Face-to-face surveys were conducted using an interview schedule (IS). A non-linear logit regression model is used to analyse the respondents' responses for the payment principle questions and to identify the factors that influence their responses. We investigate whether urban residents' WTP for the conservation of elephants is sufficient to compensate farmers for the damage caused by elephants. We find that the beneficiaries (the urban residents) could compensate losers (the fanners in the areas affected by human-elephant conflict, HEC) and be better off than in the absence of elephants in Sri Lanka. Therefore, there is a strong economic case for the conservation of the wild elephant population in Sri Lanka. However, we have insufficient data to determine the optimal level of this elephant population in the Kaldor-Hicks sense. Nevertheless, the current population of elephant in Sri Lanka is Kaldor-Hicks preferable to having none. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptive phase measurements in linear optical quantum computation

Photon counting induces an effective non-linear optical phase shift in certain states derived by linear optics from single photons. Although this non-linearity is non-deterministic, it is sufficient in principle to allow scalable linear optics quantum computation (LOQC). The most obvious way to encode a qubit optically is as a superposition of the vacuum and a single photon in one mode-so-called 'single-rail' logic. Until now this approach was thought to be prohibitively expensive (in resources) compared to 'dual-rail' logic where a qubit is stored by a photon across two modes. Here we attack this problem with real-time feedback control, which can realize a quantum-limited phase measurement on a single mode, as has been recently demonstrated experimentally. We show that with this added measurement resource, the resource requirements for single-rail LOQC are not substantially different from those of dual-rail LOQC. In particular, with adaptive phase measurements an arbitrary qubit state a alpha/0 > + beta/1 > can be prepared deterministically.

Water quality condition and trend in North Queensland waterways

The Queensland Environmental Protection Agency monitored water quality at 133 sites in North Queensland waterways between Cooktown and Bundaburg from 1992 to 2001. Condition of the waterways was rated by comparing recent data with the Queensland Water Quality Guidelines. Long-term trends were analysed using a censored regression technique that incorporates the effects of flow, temperature, seasonality and allows for long-term non-linear trends. Many sites were in good condition; those in poor condition were usually impacted by point source discharges; those in moderate condition were usually impacted by agricultural land use. There were no consistent long-term trends across the whole region. Recommendations for future programs include incorporating pressure indicators, ensuring high standards of quality assurance, including covariates such as rainfall in trend assessment and continuing programs over more than 10 years to allow detection of trends due to changes in land-use. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analytical solutions of linear finite- and small-strain one-dimensional consolidation

Analytical solutions are presented for linear finite-strain one-dimensional consolidation of initially unconsolidated soil layers with surcharge loading for both one- and two-way drainage. These solutions complement earlier solutions for initially unconsolidated soil layers without surcharge and initially normally consolidated soil layers with surcharge. Small-strain solutions for the consolidation of initially unconsolidated soil layers with surcharge loading are also presented, and the relationship between the earlier solutions for initially unconsolidated soil without surcharge and the corresponding small-strain solutions, which was not addressed in the earlier work, is clarified. The new solutions for initially unconsolidated soil with surcharge loading can be applied to the analysis of low stress consolidation tests and to the partial validation of numerical solutions of non-linear finite-strain consolidation. They also clarify a formerly perplexing aspect of finite-strain solution charts first noted in numerical solutions. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Effects of rock properties on specific cutting energy in linear cutting of sandstones by picks

Specific cutting energy (SE) has been widely used to assess the rock cuttability for mechanical excavation purposes. Some prediction models were developed for SE through correlating rock properties with SE values. However, some of the textural and compositional rock parameters i.e. texture coefficient and feldspar, mafic, and felsic mineral contents were not considered. The present study is to investigate the effects of previously ignored rock parameters along with engineering rock properties on SE. Mineralogical and petrographic analyses, rock mechanics, and linear rock cutting tests were performed on sandstone samples taken from sites around Ankara, Turkey. Relationships between SE and rock properties were evaluated using bivariate correlation and linear regression analyses. The tests and subsequent analyses revealed that the texture coefficient and feldspar content of sandstones affected rock cuttability, evidenced by significant correlations between these parameters and SE at a 90% confidence level. Felsic and mafic mineral contents of sandstones did not exhibit any statistically significant correlation against SE. Cementation coefficient, effective porosity, and pore volume had good correlations against SE. Poisson's ratio, Brazilian tensile strength, Shore scleroscope hardness, Schmidt hammer hardness, dry density, and point load strength index showed very strong linear correlations against SE at confidence levels of 95% and above, all of which were also found suitable to be used in predicting SE individually, depending on the results of regression analysis, ANOVA, Student's t-tests, and R2 values. Poisson's ratio exhibited the highest correlation with SE and seemed to be the most reliable SE prediction tool in sandstones.

Effects of rock properties on specific cutting energy in linear cutting of sandstones by picks

Specific cutting energy (SE) has been widely used to assess the rock cuttability for mechanical excavation purposes. Some prediction models were developed for SE through correlating rock properties with SE values. However, some of the textural and compositional rock parameters i.e. texture coefficient and feldspar, mafic, and felsic mineral contents were not considered. The present study is to investigate the effects of previously ignored rock parameters along with engineering rock properties on SE. Mineralogical and petrographic analyses, rock mechanics, and linear rock cutting tests were performed on sandstone samples taken from sites around Ankara, Turkey. Relationships between SE and rock properties were evaluated using bivariate correlation and linear regression analyses. The tests and subsequent analyses revealed that the texture coefficient and feldspar content of sandstones affected rock cuttability, evidenced by significant correlations between these parameters and SE at a 90% confidence level. Felsic and mafic mineral contents of sandstones did not exhibit any statistically significant correlation against SE. Cementation coefficient, effective porosity, and pore volume had good correlations against SE. Poisson's ratio, Brazilian tensile strength, Shore scleroscope hardness, Schmidt hammer hardness, dry density, and point load strength index showed very strong linear correlations against SE at confidence levels of 95% and above, all of which were also found suitable to be used in predicting SE individually, depending on the results of regression analysis, ANOVA, Student's t-tests, and R-2 values. Poisson's ratio exhibited the highest correlation with SE and seemed to be the most reliable SE prediction tool in sandstones.

Predicting residue-wise contact orders in proteins by support vector regression

Background: The residue-wise contact order (RWCO) describes the sequence separations between the residues of interest and its contacting residues in a protein sequence. It is a new kind of one-dimensional protein structure that represents the extent of long-range contacts and is considered as a generalization of contact order. Together with secondary structure, accessible surface area, the B factor, and contact number, RWCO provides comprehensive and indispensable important information to reconstructing the protein three-dimensional structure from a set of one-dimensional structural properties. Accurately predicting RWCO values could have many important applications in protein three-dimensional structure prediction and protein folding rate prediction, and give deep insights into protein sequence-structure relationships. Results: We developed a novel approach to predict residue-wise contact order values in proteins based on support vector regression (SVR), starting from primary amino acid sequences. We explored seven different sequence encoding schemes to examine their effects on the prediction performance, including local sequence in the form of PSI-BLAST profiles, local sequence plus amino acid composition, local sequence plus molecular weight, local sequence plus secondary structure predicted by PSIPRED, local sequence plus molecular weight and amino acid composition, local sequence plus molecular weight and predicted secondary structure, and local sequence plus molecular weight, amino acid composition and predicted secondary structure. When using local sequences with multiple sequence alignments in the form of PSI-BLAST profiles, we could predict the RWCO distribution with a Pearson correlation coefficient (CC) between the predicted and observed RWCO values of 0.55, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.82, based on a well-defined dataset with 680 protein sequences. Moreover, by incorporating global features such as molecular weight and amino acid composition we could further improve the prediction performance with the CC to 0.57 and an RMSE of 0.79. In addition, combining the predicted secondary structure by PSIPRED was found to significantly improve the prediction performance and could yield the best prediction accuracy with a CC of 0.60 and RMSE of 0.78, which provided at least comparable performance compared with the other existing methods. Conclusion: The SVR method shows a prediction performance competitive with or at least comparable to the previously developed linear regression-based methods for predicting RWCO values. In contrast to support vector classification (SVC), SVR is very good at estimating the raw value profiles of the samples. The successful application of the SVR approach in this study reinforces the fact that support vector regression is a powerful tool in extracting the protein sequence-structure relationship and in estimating the protein structural profiles from amino acid sequences.

Bifurcations in the non-dissipative dynamics of ultra cold atoms

We present the first experimental observation of several bifurcations in a controllable non-linear Hamiltonian system. Dynamics of cold atoms are used to test predictions of non-linear, non-dissipative Hamiltonian dynamics.

JUSTIÇA ORGANIZACIONAL E CAPITAL PSICOLÓGICO: INFLUÊNCIA SOBRE BEM-ESTAR SUBJETIVO E ENGAJAMENTO NO TRABALHO

Há indicativos de que recursos sociais do ambiente de trabalho, entre eles justiça organizacional, poderiam influenciar vínculos com o trabalho, além de impactarem os níveis de bem-estar dos trabalhadores. Além disso, evidências apontam que certas características psicológicas dos trabalhadores fariam variar positiva ou negativamente a magnitude da influência dos recursos sobre os vínculos com o trabalho e sobre bem-estar. Com base nessas evidências esse estudo teve como objetivo principal analisar a influência de justiça organizacional (distributiva, procedimentos e interacional) e capital psicológico sobre engajamento no trabalho e bem-estar subjetivo (balanço emocional e satisfação com a vida). A partir do objetivo principal, foram propostas quatro hipóteses: percepção de justiça organizacional aumenta o engajamento no trabalho (H1) e bem-estar subjetivo (H2); capital psicológico seria moderador da relação entre justiça organizacional e bem-estar subjetivo (H3) e da relação entre justiça organizacional e engajamento (H4), sendo que, níveis altos de capital psicológico fortaleceriam as relações. O delineamento utilizado foi de natureza quantitativa transversal, descritiva e com amostragem não probabilística. A partir de uma amostra composta por 293 trabalhadores com média de idade de 38,3 (DP=10,7) anos, dos quais um pouco mais da metade era composta por mulheres (56,3pc), oriundos de todas as regiões do Brasil, com predomínio da região Sudeste (65,2pc), mediu-se com escalas válidas e precisas, por meio de um questionário online, os níveis de justiça organizacional, capital psicológico, engajamento no trabalho e bem-estar subjetivo. Foram realizados dois conjuntos de análises de regressão linear múltipla para teste das hipóteses. No primeiro conjunto de análises, os resultados das regressões lineares múltiplas padrão indicaram que justiça organizacional influenciou os níveis de engajamento no trabalho e bem-estar subjetivo, sendo que, em relação a engajamento e balanço emocional, apenas a dimensão interacional da justiça foi preditora significativa, enquanto justiça distributiva foi a única preditora significativa de satisfação com a vida. No segundo conjunto de análises, as regressões lineares múltiplas hierárquicas de cada dimensão de justiça organizacional, juntamente com capital psicológico e termo de interação sobre engajamento no trabalho e sobre bem-estar subjetivo, indicaram que capital psicológico moderou as relações entre justiça de procedimentos e justiça interacional com engajamento no trabalho. Concluiu-se a partir dos resultados que a percepção de ser remunerado adequadamente pelos esforços no trabalho, participar das decisões que afetam o trabalho e ser tratado com respeito e sinceridade pode influenciar os níveis de orgulho e inspiração no trabalho, características de engajamento, além de poder aumentar os níveis de bem-estar subjetivo, contribuindo para a vivência predominante de afetos positivos e de avaliações positivas da satisfação com a vida. Além disso, apesar de não ser possível afirmar que trabalhadores com maiores níveis de crenças em sua capacidade para executar suas tarefas e com perspectivas positivas em relação ao futuro, possam prescindir de ambientes justos para se engajarem no trabalho, os resultados demonstraram que esses trabalhadores podem sofrer menos influência de justiça de procedimentos e interacional para estabelecerem esse vínculo com seu trabalho, demonstrando que essas características pessoais funcionariam como amortecedores diante da falta de recursos do ambiente.

Efficient training of RBF networks for classification.

Radial Basis Function networks with linear outputs are often used in regression problems because they can be substantially faster to train than Multi-layer Perceptrons. For classification problems, the use of linear outputs is less appropriate as the outputs are not guaranteed to represent probabilities. We show how RBFs with logistic and softmax outputs can be trained efficiently using the Fisher scoring algorithm. This approach can be used with any model which consists of a generalised linear output function applied to a model which is linear in its parameters. We compare this approach with standard non-linear optimisation algorithms on a number of datasets.